Suns sign Rubio

Discussion of the league and of our favorite team.
User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9075
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Indy » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:40 am

Split T wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:25 pm
It’s very easy to just write off the suns. We’ve been terrible for awhile, no one, besides us, is gonna question someone who just assumes we’re only winning 25 games. The west did get stronger, but I don’t think by that much.

Lakers, clippers, Jazz, pelicans - stronger
Nuggets, blazers, Rockets, Spurs, Kings, Mavs, wolves - relatively the same
Warriors, thunder, grizz - worse
OK, so here was our record last year in those groups.

--------------------
Stronger (Lakers, Clippers, Jazz, Pels)
3-13
Let's be optimistic and say we don't lose ground against the teams that improved this year
+0

--------------------
Same (Nuggets, blazers, Rockets, Spurs, Kings, Mavs, wolves)
6-19
Again, being optimistic, say we increase our wins here by 33% against teams that didn't get worse.
+2

--------------------
Worse (Warriors, Thunder, Grizz)
2-9
Assume we split with GSW, OKC, and sweep Memphis--all optimistic
+5

--------------------
That gives us 18-33 in the West

--------------------
Now, our record against the east last year was 8-22.

Even assuming we win twice as many games against the East this year, that puts us at 16-14.
+8

--------------------
In this extremely optimistic scenario, we win 34 games, which likely still puts us as last (or close to it) in the West.

User avatar
Mori Chu
Posts: 10218
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:05 am

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Mori Chu » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:18 am

I appreciate your analysis, and there is some logic to it, but I don't think you can just look at games that way and decide on a +/- of wins like that. Arguably we are a much stronger overall team, with a better PG, a healthier star SG, a year older and wiser young star center, a new offensive weapon starting PF, and a way better coach. Plus, we will likely be trying our best to win every game, which we may not have been doing last year, particularly down the stretch. That team may end up getting all sorts of wins we wouldn't have gotten before.

People say things like, "Yes this team is better than last year, but not XX wins better." Problem is, even last year's team didn't get all of the wins it could have gotten. Down the stretch we rested all kinds of guys, Booker most notably, and essentially tanked to the finish. We probably could have had 4-5 more wins or more if our lives had depended on it. So when deciding a baseline for next year's team, it has to be compared not to our actual last year win total but to the team's potential. By that standard I could see a much higher ceiling for us next year.

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9075
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Indy » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:25 am

But you can't look at wins as if they are only determined by our team and our performance. You can't get wins on your own. You need someone else to lose. There will be 1230 wins next year, and 1230 losses. You can't just say "we got a lot better" and know that means more wins.

And your point about this team not winning as much as they "should have" is a similar argument...
So when deciding a baseline for next year's team, it has to be compared not to our actual last year win total but to the team's potential.
How many years have we lived up to our potential? By that token, Booker should be an all-star, Ayton should have won ROTY, and Bender should be a starting PF/C in the league. But we don't get wins based on potential. You have to actually do something on the court.

All that said, I agree that there is a non-zero probability to win a lot more than 19 games next year. But the odds of us wining +15 games next year is really, really low. Like "go make your fortune by betting $10k on it" low.

User avatar
O_Gardino
Posts: 5323
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 12:47 pm
Location: Shreveport, LA

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by O_Gardino » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:57 am

It's tough to say how much more improved we will be because Monty is a wild card. He could be much much better than Igor, and that would make a huge difference. We don't really know how good the Suns would have been with a better coach last year, but I don't think they were close to their ability.

Another interesting-but-not-useful way to look at it is How much better is the roster than the 2017-18 team coached by Triano? On paper, it is significantly better. If Monty is at least as good a coach as Jay, we should win more.

I'll be be satisfied with 30 wins if I feel that the roster has room to keep growing. I won't be happy with any number of wins if Monty seems like an average coach and Ayton doesn't take a big step, or if we tie up all our remaining future assets in a mediocre player.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan

User avatar
ShelC
Posts: 5076
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:00 am

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by ShelC » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:10 am

Roster was a disaster and the coach was a bad fit last season. I don't think we'd have topped 30 wins with a better coach because nothing would've helped with us starting the season with Canaan, Okobo, Melton at PG, Ariza at SF and Ryno at PF. I do think we could've been more competitive and not gotten blown out as much had we had a better coach with a system that better fit the personnel.

User avatar
Nodack
Posts: 2505
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:50 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Nodack » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:52 pm

Our team on paper is much improved over past year imo. We have a new real PG and a couple real PF’s. That was a huge hole last year. Booker trying to play PG because the other multiple stopgap PG’s weren’t getting it done. People like Oubre playing PF because the only PF Bender wasn’t cutting it.

Yes, other teams have made improvements too. They all play each other too and only one can win each game.

User avatar
In2ition
Posts: 5704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:35 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by In2ition » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:49 pm

If they won 30 games last year, they still would have trailed the 14th team by 3 games. Winning only 30 games will be a complete disaster, imo. A lot a things would have to go very wrong if that happened.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

Drewsprocket
Posts: 249
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:44 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Drewsprocket » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:53 pm

In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:49 pm
If they won 30 games last year, they still would have trailed the 14th team by 3 games. Winning only 30 games will be a complete disaster, imo. A lot a things would have to go very wrong if that happened.
They need to scaffold up each year. 30+, 40+, etc. learning to win and growing together. There isn’t gomna be some overnight change or superstar coming in for the rescue. Blazers are coming together finally. Here’s hoping that’s our new trajectory.

User avatar
In2ition
Posts: 5704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:35 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by In2ition » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:15 pm

Drewsprocket wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:53 pm
In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:49 pm
If they won 30 games last year, they still would have trailed the 14th team by 3 games. Winning only 30 games will be a complete disaster, imo. A lot a things would have to go very wrong if that happened.
They need to scaffold up each year. 30+, 40+, etc. learning to win and growing together. There isn’t gomna be some overnight change or superstar coming in for the rescue. Blazers are coming together finally. Here’s hoping that’s our new trajectory.
I would agree with this if the 19 wins wasn't an aberration last year due to a totally unacceptable roster construction last year. How do you possibly build a roster without a PF or real PG on the roster?

I believe that they would have had 30 wins last year if only they had the roster at the end of the year the whole season. That's not including the added depth, the subtraction of negative value players, upgrades at several positions, natural growth from players and real actual PFs that can contribute.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

Drewsprocket
Posts: 249
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:44 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Drewsprocket » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:40 pm

In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:15 pm
Drewsprocket wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:53 pm
In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:49 pm
If they won 30 games last year, they still would have trailed the 14th team by 3 games. Winning only 30 games will be a complete disaster, imo. A lot a things would have to go very wrong if that happened.
They need to scaffold up each year. 30+, 40+, etc. learning to win and growing together. There isn’t gomna be some overnight change or superstar coming in for the rescue. Blazers are coming together finally. Here’s hoping that’s our new trajectory.
I would agree with this if the 19 wins wasn't an aberration last year due to a totally unacceptable roster construction last year. How do you possibly build a roster without a PF or real PG on the roster?

I believe that they would have had 30 wins last year if only they had the roster at the end of the year the whole season. That's not including the added depth, the subtraction of negative value players, upgrades at several positions, natural growth from players and real actual PFs that can contribute.
I would argue that it’s reasonable to think Rubio will be much better with this roster under Monty and make his teammates all the better. Saric was a starting PF with the Sixers. Maybe we will lack on D but the offense should coast to some much needed wins for a change. I agree it was awful last but there really wasn’t much offensive chemistry to facilitate enough buckets. There was that small stretch of wins with healthy players with TJ and Oubre starting to click. That will be a part of next year’s success— in addition to Saric and Rubio coming on as starters. 35 wins is a fair expectation without calls for the Suns-pocalypse.

User avatar
O_Gardino
Posts: 5323
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 12:47 pm
Location: Shreveport, LA

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by O_Gardino » Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:40 am

In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:15 pm
Drewsprocket wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:53 pm
In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:49 pm
If they won 30 games last year, they still would have trailed the 14th team by 3 games. Winning only 30 games will be a complete disaster, imo. A lot a things would have to go very wrong if that happened.
They need to scaffold up each year. 30+, 40+, etc. learning to win and growing together. There isn’t gomna be some overnight change or superstar coming in for the rescue. Blazers are coming together finally. Here’s hoping that’s our new trajectory.
I would agree with this if the 19 wins wasn't an aberration last year due to a totally unacceptable roster construction last year. How do you possibly build a roster without a PF or real PG on the roster?

I believe that they would have had 30 wins last year if only they had the roster at the end of the year the whole season. That's not including the added depth, the subtraction of negative value players, upgrades at several positions, natural growth from players and real actual PFs that can contribute.
I hate to be the one to tell you, but last year wasn't an aberration. It was a result of who the Suns are. Over the last 8 years, the Suns have averaged 29 wins. The aberration was that one 48 win season.

Our summer this year might look better than last summer right now. But last summer many of us thought Ayton and Igor would bring us to 35 wins, too. Objectively, the Suns made the same kind of moves they have been making for yeas now. Another PG who is supposed to be a difference maker here (even though he hasn't been a difference maker elsewhere), one player at a position of need who addresses half our weaknesses there, A free agent tying up cap space at the same position we use a lottery pick on, a new coach who hasn't been a successful nba head coach yet.

30 wins wouldn't be complete disaster - it would be the average result from an average Suns offseason. I certainly hope that this time the coach turns out to be good and the players click and outperform their history. But I don't think it's realistic to ride or die with this roster like we will finally break out of the pattern and win close to half our games.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan

User avatar
Mori Chu
Posts: 10218
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:05 am

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Mori Chu » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:06 am

Drewsprocket wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:53 pm
In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:49 pm
If they won 30 games last year, they still would have trailed the 14th team by 3 games. Winning only 30 games will be a complete disaster, imo. A lot a things would have to go very wrong if that happened.
They need to scaffold up each year. 30+, 40+, etc. learning to win and growing together. There isn’t gomna be some overnight change or superstar coming in for the rescue. Blazers are coming together finally. Here’s hoping that’s our new trajectory.
Blazers are a good comparison point. They have slowly and smartly been adding talent around their stars and have a good coach in place. But they haven't immediately become a contender. It takes time.

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9075
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Indy » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:27 am

To be fair OG, that 8 years includes the lock out shortened season where we only played 66 games (and won half of them).

Our win percentage this decade (which includes two full seasons under Gentry) is 38%, or 31 wins in an 82 game season. If you only look at the last 4 years with Booker, we average 26.5% or 22 wins.

For me, our team has shown many times this decade that we are not good at putting together a team that can compete. You can blame Sarver or Ryan or Blabbly or Igor or whatever. But in the end, it is who we have been this decade. There are college seniors that haven't seen a Suns team win a playoff series since they were in grade school. There is really good reasons the national media doesn't ever give us a chance... we keep blowing them. Of the 9 seasons this decade, we have missed our predicted Over/Under by -20.5 (and that includes our 48 win season where we beat the odds by 27.5 games!).

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9075
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Indy » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:32 am

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:06 am
Drewsprocket wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:53 pm
In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:49 pm
If they won 30 games last year, they still would have trailed the 14th team by 3 games. Winning only 30 games will be a complete disaster, imo. A lot a things would have to go very wrong if that happened.
They need to scaffold up each year. 30+, 40+, etc. learning to win and growing together. There isn’t gomna be some overnight change or superstar coming in for the rescue. Blazers are coming together finally. Here’s hoping that’s our new trajectory.
Blazers are a good comparison point. They have slowly and smartly been adding talent around their stars and have a good coach in place. But they haven't immediately become a contender. It takes time.
They have been consistently beating their over/under prediction all decade. +31.5 so far, despite missing by 15 the first 3 years of the decade. They have been going in the right direction for 5 or 6 years now.

User avatar
O_Gardino
Posts: 5323
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 12:47 pm
Location: Shreveport, LA

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by O_Gardino » Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:19 am

Indy wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:27 am
To be fair OG, that 8 years includes the lock out shortened season where we only played 66 games (and won half of them).

Our win percentage this decade (which includes two full seasons under Gentry) is 38%, or 31 wins in an 82 game season. If you only look at the last 4 years with Booker, we average 26.5% or 22 wins.

For me, our team has shown many times this decade that we are not good at putting together a team that can compete. You can blame Sarver or Ryan or Blabbly or Igor or whatever. But in the end, it is who we have been this decade. There are college seniors that haven't seen a Suns team win a playoff series since they were in grade school. There is really good reasons the national media doesn't ever give us a chance... we keep blowing them. Of the 9 seasons this decade, we have missed our predicted Over/Under by -20.5 (and that includes our 48 win season where we beat the odds by 27.5 games!).
Very good point, Indy. I missed that.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan

Drewsprocket
Posts: 249
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:44 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Drewsprocket » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:50 pm

This is the best roster we’ve had since we last made the playoffs. Breathe in some hope people. It’s been real sh!tty. We wont make the playoffs next season but maybe they will at least be playing - dare i say flirting - for it.

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9075
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Indy » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:26 pm

I appreciate the optimism, but people said the same thing last off-season. There were plenty of people here saying bring in Trevor was a really good signing and it would give us a big jump forward, coupled with a dominant 7-1 center and book a year older and...

User avatar
In2ition
Posts: 5704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:35 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by In2ition » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:25 pm

O_Gardino wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:40 am
In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:15 pm
Drewsprocket wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:53 pm
In2ition wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:49 pm
If they won 30 games last year, they still would have trailed the 14th team by 3 games. Winning only 30 games will be a complete disaster, imo. A lot a things would have to go very wrong if that happened.
They need to scaffold up each year. 30+, 40+, etc. learning to win and growing together. There isn’t gomna be some overnight change or superstar coming in for the rescue. Blazers are coming together finally. Here’s hoping that’s our new trajectory.
I would agree with this if the 19 wins wasn't an aberration last year due to a totally unacceptable roster construction last year. How do you possibly build a roster without a PF or real PG on the roster?

I believe that they would have had 30 wins last year if only they had the roster at the end of the year the whole season. That's not including the added depth, the subtraction of negative value players, upgrades at several positions, natural growth from players and real actual PFs that can contribute.
I hate to be the one to tell you, but last year wasn't an aberration. It was a result of who the Suns are. Over the last 8 years, the Suns have averaged 29 wins. The aberration was that one 48 win season.

Our summer this year might look better than last summer right now. But last summer many of us thought Ayton and Igor would bring us to 35 wins, too. Objectively, the Suns made the same kind of moves they have been making for yeas now. Another PG who is supposed to be a difference maker here (even though he hasn't been a difference maker elsewhere), one player at a position of need who addresses half our weaknesses there, A free agent tying up cap space at the same position we use a lottery pick on, a new coach who hasn't been a successful nba head coach yet.

30 wins wouldn't be complete disaster - it would be the average result from an average Suns offseason. I certainly hope that this time the coach turns out to be good and the players click and outperform their history. But I don't think it's realistic to ride or die with this roster like we will finally break out of the pattern and win close to half our games.
I guess I must apologize for not making myself clear. They totally deserved those 63 losses, it was totally on them. They were a horrible team and played like it. What I meant was that the talent level on the team was much better last year than it had been in the 3-4 yrs prior. If they would have had a decent sane competently built balanced roster, they wouldn't have been at 19 wins. I feel like I'm repeating myself over and over and no one is hearing me say this. If they would have had Tyler Johnson, who is a backup combo guard, and Kelly Oubre, who was a young middling athletic small forward, on the team the entire year, even the experts agree that they most likely would have won another 10 games over the course of the season.

I'm not saying that they are going from 19 wins to title contender this year. I'm saying that just filling the holes in the roster and adding talent and depth, that they will be drastically improved. We might see Devin improve his efficiency and defense if he's not having to carry the load of creation and table setting. We might see Deandre blossom if he had a decent PF next to him or a PG that could pass him the ball. We might see Bridges play even better in a winning environment.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

User avatar
In2ition
Posts: 5704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:35 pm

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by In2ition » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:28 pm

Indy wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:26 pm
I appreciate the optimism, but people said the same thing last off-season. There were plenty of people here saying bring in Trevor was a really good signing and it would give us a big jump forward, coupled with a dominant 7-1 center and book a year older and...
We also thought that Anderson, even though plenty of evidence in Houston said not to, would be a decent stretch 4 next to Ayton and had something left in the tank. We also assumed that they wouldn't go into the season with the PG rotation of Canaan, Melton, and Okobo and of course they would trade for a starting PG. No?
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

User avatar
Mori Chu
Posts: 10218
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:05 am

Re: Suns sign Rubio

Post by Mori Chu » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:36 pm

Some of us thought that it was stupid to sign Ariza, and that Anderson sucked, from day one.

Post Reply