Game Day: Suns (18-39) @ Bulls (28-29), Fri 2/24/17

[Split T]

Is there really a team that would pay Len more than 15 million per year? I guess the Nets would sign almost anyone, but they have a lot of candidates to sign ahead of Len on all positions. There are a lot of solid centers in the league.

Mozgov and Mahinmi got 16 million per least off-season, so yes, I think someone will give him 15 million.

The cap is going down next season from $108m to $102m so there should be some downward pressure on salaries by default.

Just going down from where it was projected to be. This year's cap was 94 million, so it's still going up to the projected 102 million. Len is getting 15+ million, he might get 18-20 million.

[3rdside]

Is there really a team that would pay Len more than 15 million per year? I guess the Nets would sign almost anyone, but they have a lot of candidates to sign ahead of Len on all positions. There are a lot of solid centers in the league.

Mozgov and Mahinmi got 16 million per least off-season, so yes, I think someone will give him 15 million.

The cap is going down next season from $108m to $102m so there should be some downward pressure on salaries by default.

Just going down from where it was projected to be. This year's cap was 94 million, so it's still going up to the projected 102 million. Len is getting 15+ million, he might get 18-20 million.

My mistake, I misread the link but either way salaries last year were set with the expectation of a $108m cap this year. Because it's now lower than expected, as is the '18-'19 cap, salaries should also be lower.

I'm not proposing to break the bank for the guy but I'd expect to match whatever the market sets his salary at, and I I don't think it's going to break the bank for the guy either.

[carey]

That last paragraph is such flawed logic. That got us Warrick Turkoglu and Childress. Just because a superstar isn't out there yet doesn't mean you blow your load on a below average player for multiple years and then immediately lose any flexibility or hope of building a successful team.

That's what Portland did, although they were betting on internal improvement like we'd be doing with Len.

[specialsauce]

Mozgov and Mahinmi got 16 million per least off-season, so yes, I think someone will give him 15 million.

The cap is going down next season from $108m to $102m so there should be some downward pressure on salaries by default.

Just going down from where it was projected to be. This year's cap was 94 million, so it's still going up to the projected 102 million. Len is getting 15+ million, he might get 18-20 million.

My mistake, I misread the link but either way salaries last year were set with the expectation of a $108m cap this year. Because it's now lower than expected, as is the '18-'19 cap, salaries should also be lower.

I'm not proposing to break the bank for the guy but I'd expect to match whatever the market sets his salary at, and I I don't think it's going to break the bank for the guy either.

So you'd give him Mozgov money??

Gross

[3rdside]

The cap is going down next season from $108m to $102m so there should be some downward pressure on salaries by default.

Just going down from where it was projected to be. This year's cap was 94 million, so it's still going up to the projected 102 million. Len is getting 15+ million, he might get 18-20 million.

My mistake, I misread the link but either way salaries last year were set with the expectation of a $108m cap this year. Because it's now lower than expected, as is the '18-'19 cap, salaries should also be lower.

I'm not proposing to break the bank for the guy but I'd expect to match whatever the market sets his salary at, and I I don't think it's going to break the bank for the guy either.

So you'd give him Mozgov money??

Gross

I gotta start by saying wtf were the Lakers thinking with that contract - that is gross.

So no I probably wouldn't but he shouldn't get that much because:

- The salary cap is lower than expected - I know it's relative but it felt like GM's salary puked last year in view of the huge initial cap uplift, which won't happen again this year because GM's will have adjusted to the new spending power firstly and the cap is lower than expected secondly.
- Mozgov had proved (kind of) his abilities over 10 years of NBA ball before getting the monster contract where Len is still kind of unproven.
- Mozgov was a proven (kind of) starter whereas Len isn't.
- Mozgov shoots well over .500 (.590 and .560 the two years prior to the monster contract) Len doesn't - although he's close this year at .498.


And I suppose you could ask a broader question - if we're so far under the cap and we're not going be competing for anything for at least three years does it really matter what we pay the guy? It's not like it's coming out of our pocket and the greater risk is probably him developing into something good rather than slightly overpaying for his services.

[n4th4n]

Is there really a team that would pay Len more than 15 million per year? I guess the Nets would sign almost anyone, but they have a lot of candidates to sign ahead of Len on all positions. There are a lot of solid centers in the league.

Mozgov and Mahinmi got 16 million per least off-season, so yes, I think someone will give him 15 million.

The cap is going down next season from $108m to $102m so there should be some downward pressure on salaries by default.

Just going down from where it was projected to be. This year's cap was 94 million, so it's still going up to the projected 102 million. Len is getting 15+ million, he might get 18-20 million.

Is he though? Who is offering him that contract? Who has the space and the need for a center? NJ maybe, but other than them, I don't know where this contract is going to come from.

[specialsauce]

Just going down from where it was projected to be. This year's cap was 94 million, so it's still going up to the projected 102 million. Len is getting 15+ million, he might get 18-20 million.

My mistake, I misread the link but either way salaries last year were set with the expectation of a $108m cap this year. Because it's now lower than expected, as is the '18-'19 cap, salaries should also be lower.

I'm not proposing to break the bank for the guy but I'd expect to match whatever the market sets his salary at, and I I don't think it's going to break the bank for the guy either.

So you'd give him Mozgov money??

Gross

I gotta start by saying wtf were the Lakers thinking with that contract - that is gross.

So no I probably wouldn't but he shouldn't get that much because:

- The salary cap is lower than expected - I know it's relative but it felt like GM's salary puked last year in view of the huge initial cap uplift, which won't happen again this year because GM's will have adjusted to the new spending power firstly and the cap is lower than expected secondly.
- Mozgov had proved (kind of) his abilities over 10 years of NBA ball before getting the monster contract where Len is still kind of unproven.
- Mozgov was a proven (kind of) starter whereas Len isn't.
- Mozgov shoots well over .500 (.590 and .560 the two years prior to the monster contract) Len doesn't - although he's close this year at .498.


And I suppose you could ask a broader question - if we're so far under the cap and we're not going be competing for anything for at least three years does it really matter what we pay the guy? It's not like it's coming out of our pocket and the greater risk is probably him developing into something good rather than slightly overpaying for his services.

Again there's no discussion to be had with that last paragraph that has absolutely zero vision. So you're just giving up and assuming we'll suck so might as well overpay. If a Gm said this I would want him fired immediately. Shitty teams fill their salary cap with mediocre players "just because." See: Hawks, Pistons, Hornets, Suns for the last 5 years. That essentially guarantees you'll suck because you have no alternative. Even if someone becomes available you can't get them because you saddled yourself with a bunch of shitty contracts and don't have cap space now. Just a horrendous point of view

[3rdside]

My mistake, I misread the link but either way salaries last year were set with the expectation of a $108m cap this year. Because it's now lower than expected, as is the '18-'19 cap, salaries should also be lower.

I'm not proposing to break the bank for the guy but I'd expect to match whatever the market sets his salary at, and I I don't think it's going to break the bank for the guy either.

So you'd give him Mozgov money??

Gross

I gotta start by saying wtf were the Lakers thinking with that contract - that is gross.

So no I probably wouldn't but he shouldn't get that much because:

- The salary cap is lower than expected - I know it's relative but it felt like GM's salary puked last year in view of the huge initial cap uplift, which won't happen again this year because GM's will have adjusted to the new spending power firstly and the cap is lower than expected secondly.
- Mozgov had proved (kind of) his abilities over 10 years of NBA ball before getting the monster contract where Len is still kind of unproven.
- Mozgov was a proven (kind of) starter whereas Len isn't.
- Mozgov shoots well over .500 (.590 and .560 the two years prior to the monster contract) Len doesn't - although he's close this year at .498.


And I suppose you could ask a broader question - if we're so far under the cap and we're not going be competing for anything for at least three years does it really matter what we pay the guy? It's not like it's coming out of our pocket and the greater risk is probably him developing into something good rather than slightly overpaying for his services.

Again there's no discussion to be had with that last paragraph that has absolutely zero vision. So you're just giving up and assuming we'll suck so might as well overpay. If a Gm said this I would want him fired immediately. s*** teams fill their salary cap with mediocre players "just because." See: Hawks, Pistons, Hornets, Suns for the last 5 years. That essentially guarantees you'll suck because you have no alternative. Even if someone becomes available you can't get them because you saddled yourself with a bunch of s*** contracts and don't have cap space now. Just a horrendous point of view

I suppose if we draft ball and sack Watson then we might not suck in a couple of years but we sure as hell won't be winning a title by then. In three years time $15m (which he probably won't get anyway) will be marginally above 10% of the cap; hardly a burden.

And it was really a question of probability rather than saying we suck / he sucks / let's overpay him anyway - "is the risk of Len developing into something good on another team less than or greater than the risk of us over paying him (if that's even what we do)?

On balance I go for the latter.

[3rdside]

But if Williams is as good as he seems then that equation changes a bit - go pig sauce

[Mori Chu]

If they start him the rest of the year and he plays well, I still think we should try our best to re-sign him. The numbers will probably give us some sticker shock ($15m/yr?), but with the new CBA, that isn't a scandalous price if he is a good starting center.

Is he though? What would you do if Alan Williams keeps out playing him in a backup role for the rest of the year? Len is still making the same mistakes as year 1. He constantly puts the ball low where it can be slapped away (or taking an unnecessary dribble) so he's turning the ball over a ton. He is way too foul prone. I'm not sure he could even average 30+ minutes a game without fouling out. He's an average finisher. His jump shot looks good but doesn't actually go in that much. (See: http://vorped.com/1-nba/2016-2017/player/1586/alex-len/) He seems like a good guy. You never hear him complain. He brings his lunch pail and works hard. I just don't know that I would be able to pay him that much while Chandler and Knight are still here making a combined $26.6M next year.

I'd be happy for Williams if he played that well. He and Len could be our center rotation for the future. It should be noted that Williams is actually older than Len by a few months (he's 24, while Len will have his 24th birthday in June).

[The Bobster]

It's funny - center is the one position where this team is currently in good shape. Chandler is a pretty good start starter, Len is more than adequate as a backup and Williams is a great third string center.

Subtract Chandler and you start having issues though.

[3rdside]

It's funny - center is the one position where this team is currently in good shape. Chandler is a pretty good start starter, Len is more than adequate as a backup and Williams is a great third string center.

Subtract Chandler and you start having issues though.

The irony of this is something else - that we chase our tails for decades to sort the position out and when we finally do, it becomes redundant.


Hi five, Ryan.






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[specialsauce]

I wouldn't call the position sorted out now. Redundant sure, with quantity but not quality. All 3 are decent back up centers

[In2ition]

I still think that Len is going to keep improving, but I wouldn't want to pull the trigger on paying him $15-18 mil per.

Check out Anzejs Pasecniks, who nbadraft.net has us projected to take with the Raptors pick(I think he will go much higher). Seems like a good replacement for Len. Was underwhelming the past couple of years, when expectations were higher for him. Is a former teammate of Porzingis:
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/anzejs-pasecniks

[JCSunsfan]

I still think that Len is going to keep improving, but I wouldn't want to pull the trigger on paying him $15-18 mil per.

Check out Anzejs Pasecniks, who nbadraft.net has us projected to take with the Raptors pick(I think he will go much higher). Seems like a good replacement for Len. Was underwhelming the past couple of years, when expectations were higher for him. Is a former teammate of Porzingis:
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/anzejs-pasecniks

He is not going to get that type of money.

There are not that many teams with cap space that do not have a starting center spot wrapped up. Then, there are probably 8 better centers on the market before Len. No way is a team going to go to the FA market and pay Alex Len $15 million to be a back up center. . .

unless its the Knicks.

[Split T]

Is there really a team that would pay Len more than 15 million per year? I guess the Nets would sign almost anyone, but they have a lot of candidates to sign ahead of Len on all positions. There are a lot of solid centers in the league.

Mozgov and Mahinmi got 16 million per least off-season, so yes, I think someone will give him 15 million.

The cap is going down next season from $108m to $102m so there should be some downward pressure on salaries by default.

Just going down from where it was projected to be. This year's cap was 94 million, so it's still going up to the projected 102 million. Len is getting 15+ million, he might get 18-20 million.

Is he though? Who is offering him that contract? Who has the space and the need for a center? NJ maybe, but other than them, I don't know where this contract is going to come from.

Teams who are projected to have space to sign Len to an 18 million dollar offer sheet:

Celtics, Nets, Mavs, Nuggets, Pacers, Lakers, Heat, TWolves, Knicks, Sixers, Magic, Bulls, Hawks, Kings

Teams who could create enough cap space if needed:

Warriors, Clippers, Pelicans, Spurs, Jazz

Lets first throw out Warriors, Clippers, and Jazz as they'd have to renounce their stars in order to get cap space(Curry, Durant, Paul, Griffin, Hayward, Hill)
I'd throw out Pelicans because they'd have to renounce Holiday and then spend that money on a back up center when they have no guards. Spurs would have to renounce Pau Gasol.

Celtics have the cap space and Len would actually fill a need. Boston more likely to chase bigger targets, but can't rule them out.
Nets could throw him an offer sheet if they strike out on their primary targets.
Mavs have their own RFA Center in Noel that they will be focused on instead.
Nuggets also have their own RFA C in Plumlee
Pacers have a younger, better C prospect in Turner
Lakers just spent 16 million on a 3rd string C, they'll want to save their money for stars.
Heat have whiteside and would have to renounce a few key role players
Wolves already resigned their own C from this draft class(dieng)
Knicks have Noah at 18/year and have younger cheaper options as well(porzingis, o'quinn, hernangomez)
Sixers need guards, they're trying to get rid of big men
Magic also need gaurds
Bulls have Robin Lopez, but Len might be an upgrade
Hawks have Dwight, may want to try and retain Millsap
Kings could be an option, but they already have too many young bigs that need minutes.

So you're right, there doesn't appear to be any obvious candidates who would go after Len, but teams always do surprising things. Celtics, Nets, Bulls, and Kings are the 4 most realistic teams I could see making Len an offer.

[O_Gardino]

Split breaks it down.

[LazarusLong]

The x-factor in this scenario is Dragan Bender.
We're not sure how good he is, but he could potentially a more complete player than Len.
With Chandler still available for two more years and Williams around to flog the paint for 10-15 minutes a game, Bender has some time to develop.

[Ring_Wanted]

Awesome post Split. I'd add that Minni having extended Dieng doesn't mean they can't use Len. Dieng doesn't defend and is a PF anyways. Boston certainly has bigger fish to fry, but they could work a nice sign and trade with Olynyk. They also have Zeller on the books for 8M next season.

[In2ition]

How much do you think Len gets?