Your Top Five for #4

[Indy]

I would be very surprised if foreign players had a lower success rate than American college players.

Exactly.

[Split T]

We just had a run of "the next nowitzki" players that all were big disappointments. The big problem was comparing then to nowitzki in the first place, but having less of them in the draft makes it more noticeable when they bust. For every Tskitishvili, there are a few Marcus Fizers and Tyrus Thomas pics.

[In2ition]

I would be very surprised if foreign players had a lower success rate than American college players.

It's not even close. It's much much lower.

I heard this lately, and I was surprised myself.

[In2ition]

"Since 1998 (when Nowitzki was drafted), 21 percent of lottery picks from American colleges have been an All-Star at least once (41 of 194). Meanwhile, 11 percent of Europeans drafted in the lottery since 1998 have been All-Stars (two of 18)."

From an article 2 years ago in ESPN. http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post ... tery-picks

[TOO]

S/O to Alex Len for dragging down both of those numbers.

[Split T]

"Since 1998 (when Nowitzki was drafted), 21 percent of lottery picks from American colleges have been an All-Star at least once (41 of 194). Meanwhile, 11 percent of Europeans drafted in the lottery since 1998 have been All-Stars (two of 18)."

From an article 2 years ago in ESPN. http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post ... tery-picks

18 is a pretty low number, hard to compare. Outside of Gasol, Bargnani, and milicic, have any euros gone top 3? It would be interesting to see where these euros are being picked as guys in the top 3 or 4 are much more likely to become all stars. If most of these euros are in that 7-14 range, it's not surprising they have less all star appearances. Which brings up another question, why did they use all star appearances as the determining point for success, and why did they limit it to lottery selections. The best euro players are being picked outside the lottery.

I've got the day off work today, maybe I'll go through these drafts and look at all the euro picks.

[Indy]

"Since 1998 (when Nowitzki was drafted), 21 percent of lottery picks from American colleges have been an All-Star at least once (41 of 194). Meanwhile, 11 percent of Europeans drafted in the lottery since 1998 have been All-Stars (two of 18)."

From an article 2 years ago in ESPN. http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post ... tery-picks

18 is a pretty low number, hard to compare. Outside of Gasol, Bargnani, and milicic, have any euros gone top 3? It would be interesting to see where these euros are being picked as guys in the top 3 or 4 are much more likely to become all stars. If most of these euros are in that 7-14 range, it's not surprising they have less all star appearances. Which brings up another question, why did they use all star appearances as the determining point for success, and why did they limit it to lottery selections. The best euro players are being picked outside the lottery.

I've got the day off work today, maybe I'll go through these drafts and look at all the euro picks.

You should absolutely do that.

Also, it seems strange to be comparing simply based on where they went to college, not where they grew up/were taught basketball. So Len would be an "American" vs a "Euro"?

[Cap]

"Since 1998 (when Nowitzki was drafted), 21 percent of lottery picks from American colleges have been an All-Star at least once (41 of 194). Meanwhile, 11 percent of Europeans drafted in the lottery since 1998 have been All-Stars (two of 18)."

From an article 2 years ago in ESPN. http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post ... tery-picks

18 is a pretty low number, hard to compare. Outside of Gasol, Bargnani, and milicic, have any euros gone top 3? It would be interesting to see where these euros are being picked as guys in the top 3 or 4 are much more likely to become all stars. If most of these euros are in that 7-14 range, it's not surprising they have less all star appearances. Which brings up another question, why did they use all star appearances as the determining point for success, and why did they limit it to lottery selections. The best euro players are being picked outside the lottery.

I've got the day off work today, maybe I'll go through these drafts and look at all the euro picks.

It does seem a silly way to measure European prospects. KP was drafted in the lottery and hasn't been an All-Star yet, which makes him a bust by the standards of this article.

[In2ition]

"Since 1998 (when Nowitzki was drafted), 21 percent of lottery picks from American colleges have been an All-Star at least once (41 of 194). Meanwhile, 11 percent of Europeans drafted in the lottery since 1998 have been All-Stars (two of 18)."

From an article 2 years ago in ESPN. http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post ... tery-picks

18 is a pretty low number, hard to compare. Outside of Gasol, Bargnani, and milicic, have any euros gone top 3? It would be interesting to see where these euros are being picked as guys in the top 3 or 4 are much more likely to become all stars. If most of these euros are in that 7-14 range, it's not surprising they have less all star appearances. Which brings up another question, why did they use all star appearances as the determining point for success, and why did they limit it to lottery selections. The best euro players are being picked outside the lottery.

I've got the day off work today, maybe I'll go through these drafts and look at all the euro picks.

It does seem a silly way to measure European prospects. KP was drafted in the lottery and hasn't been an All-Star yet, which makes him a bust by the standards of this article.

Remember they weren't counting KP yet.

[Wormwood]

My order of precedence, assuming they're still on the board:

1. Ball

2. Isaac

3. Tatum

4. Jackson

5. Markkanen

[Split T]

So I looked at all 219 players who were drafted since 1998 that did not play high school or college basketball in the United States. So this includes players not just from Europe, but from Africa, Asia, Australia, and South America as well. I compared there expected career win shares based on their draft position to their actual career win shares and lumped them into 8 categories. It was hard to properly rate the newer players based on this formula without excessive projection, so I made 2011 the cutoff and only did some minor projecting on a few players. I ended up with 153 players.

The 8 categories were:

1. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 100 or more. 3 players made this category or 1.9%
2. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 75-100. 2 players made this category or 1.3%
3. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 50-75. 3 players made this category or 1.9%
4. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 25-50. 11 players made this category or 7.1%
5. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 10-25. 9 players made this category or 5.8%
6. Players within 10 win shares of their expected win shares in either direction. 99 players made this category or 64.7%
7. Players who underperformed by 10-25 win shares. 18 players made this category or 11.7%
8. Players who underperformed by 25 or more win shares. 8 players made this category or 5.2%

So you've got about 28 players out performing their expected win shares by 10 or more and 26 underperforming. Seems to be pretty much in line with what you'd expect.

[Split T]

For those interested:

Top International draft picks and how much they exceeded their expected win shares

1. Dirk 130
2. Ginobili 103
3. Parker 96(I made the assumption he would pass 100)
4. P. Gasol 85
5. M. Gasol 63(I made the assumption he would pass 75)
6. Kirilenko 60
7. Gortat 54
8. Okur 45
9. Scola 43
10. Turkoglu 42
11. Pachulia 39
12. Ibaka 37(I made the assumption he would pass 50)
13. Dragic 37

[Split T]

Top Busts:

1. Bargnani -51
2. Milicic -51
3. Tskitishvili -41
4. Jianlin -35
5. Vesely -34
6. Sene -28
7. Vazquez -27
8. Korolev -25
9. Weis -21
10. Turkcan -19
11. Pavlovic -19
12. Cabarkapa -19


Bender is currently -45, so he's got some work to do to not be on this list.

[Indy]

I am so glad you had the day off of work.

[Cap]

Top Busts:

1. Bargnani -51
2. Milicic -51
3. Tskitishvili -41
4. Jianlin -35
5. Vesely -34
6. Sene -28
7. Vazquez -27
8. Korolev -25
9. Weis -21
10. Turkcan -19
11. Pavlovic -19
12. Cabarkapa -19

Bender is currently -45, so he's got some work to do to not be on this list.

How can he be at -45 after just one season? What's the expected WS of a #4 pick in his rookie season?

I second Indy's comment. Thanks for doing this analysis.

[O_Gardino]

Wow, good work, Split.

[BlaCkAdDa]

I was mainly thinking circa tip dozen picks.. And I'm being totally subjective but I just recall more non events than resounding success... I also think from a suns perspective over last 20 years we seem to have drafted our share of busts without someone to point to as a strong success.

I'm glad we nailed the Booker pick but I'm not convinced on last year yet and I want us to get a gun again this year.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

[Split T]

Top Busts:

1. Bargnani -51
2. Milicic -51
3. Tskitishvili -41
4. Jianlin -35
5. Vesely -34
6. Sene -28
7. Vazquez -27
8. Korolev -25
9. Weis -21
10. Turkcan -19
11. Pavlovic -19
12. Cabarkapa -19

Bender is currently -45, so he's got some work to do to not be on this list.

How can he be at -45 after just one season? What's the expected WS of a #4 pick in his rookie season?

I second Indy's comment. Thanks for doing this analysis.

The only expected win share stat I could find was for career ws. The 4th pick is expected to get 45 win shares over their career. That's why I didn't include anyone after 2011. Guys like Antetekounmpo, Porzingis, gobert, Jokic, etc. Aren't close to where they'll end up.

[3rdside]

So I looked at all 219 players who were drafted since 1998 that did not play high school or college basketball in the United States. So this includes players not just from Europe, but from Africa, Asia, Australia, and South America as well. I compared there expected career win shares based on their draft position to their actual career win shares and lumped them into 8 categories. It was hard to properly rate the newer players based on this formula without excessive projection, so I made 2011 the cutoff and only did some minor projecting on a few players. I ended up with 153 players.

The 8 categories were:

1. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 100 or more. 3 players made this category or 1.9%
2. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 75-100. 2 players made this category or 1.3%
3. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 50-75. 3 players made this category or 1.9%
4. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 25-50. 11 players made this category or 7.1%
5. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 10-25. 9 players made this category or 5.8%
6. Players within 10 win shares of their expected win shares in either direction. 99 players made this category or 64.7%
7. Players who underperformed by 10-25 win shares. 18 players made this category or 11.7%
8. Players who underperformed by 25 or more win shares. 8 players made this category or 5.2%

So you've got about 28 players out performing their expected win shares by 10 or more and 26 underperforming. Seems to be pretty much in line with what you'd expect.

It's 'their'.

[3rdside]

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lol - I'm glad you had the day off also, great work.