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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:56 pm
by INFORMER
Bucktastic365 wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:40 pm
In2ition wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:20 pm


Looking nice.
Beautiful looking jump shot. Gives me some hope.

I keep watching UVA games trying to imagine him being an NBA player, and I just can't see it. Too slow. Too mechanical. I would love to be wrong.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:06 pm
by Superbone

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:03 am
by carey
INFORMER wrote:
Beautiful looking jump shot. Gives me some hope.

I keep watching UVA games trying to imagine him being an NBA player, and I just can't see it. Too slow. Too mechanical. I would love to be wrong.
He's really slow. Nash was at least average in regards to foot speed. I am not sure it's something he can improve either. It could be he is destined do be a backup PG in the 15 mpg mold.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:33 am
by Mori Chu
carey wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:03 am
INFORMER wrote:
Beautiful looking jump shot. Gives me some hope.

I keep watching UVA games trying to imagine him being an NBA player, and I just can't see it. Too slow. Too mechanical. I would love to be wrong.
He's really slow. Nash was at least average in regards to foot speed. I am not sure it's something he can improve either. It could be he is destined do be a backup PG in the 15 mpg mold.
I would say that Nash was distinctly below average in his speed. What he did have was a good burst of acceleration, the ability to lull the defender into thinking he was even slower than that before putting on a small burst of speed to get a bit of separation. But Nash was really unathletic and relied heavily on his cleverness and on screens to get open for shots.

As for the video: I watched it and enjoyed seeing him hit so many 3s. What do you think of his shot form? It looks to me like he has a low release point. This isn't a deal-breaker, and it reminds me of Steph Curry's form a bit.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:43 am
by 3rdside
Cheers Bobster for the insight - the revised summary removing the various players looks like this*:

Summary:

---------First 5 Seasons Ave.----Seasons after First 5 Ave.-------Change
GP ---------55.2 ------------------------ 57.1---------------------------3.4%
GS ---------36.9--------------------------41.3--------------------------12.2%
MPG -------30.3--------------------------28.1--------------------------(7.5%)
PPG--------15.3--------------------------13.4--------------------------(12.5%)
FG%--------0.466----------------------- 0.439--------------------------(5.8%)

*This isn't comparing apples to apples, at least in the case of projecting Warren's upcoming 3 years so table below addresses this.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:41 am
by 3rdside
Same criteria to select players but as we want to guess what Warren's next 3 years might look like, comparing 3 year periods to 3 year periods makes sense, so:

-The first 2 years of each players data is removed leaving three years of data. This also removes the rookie adjustment period pretty well.
- This is compared against the next 3 yrs of data (so yr 6 > yr 8 for each player); this means a career has to be at least 8 years long. This also removes the impact of career ending injuries, which Warren doesn't have.
- If a player is active (applies to Khris Middleton only) then he doesn't need to have 8 years.

---------Seasons 3 > 5 Ave.---------Seasons 6 > 8 Ave.-------------Change
GP ---------61.1------------------------ 51.9---------------------------(15.2%)
GS ---------46.1--------------------------40.1--------------------------(13.1%)
MPG -------31.3--------------------------31.0--------------------------(0.7%)
PPG--------15.3--------------------------15.9---------------------------3.5%
FG%--------0.443----------------------- 0.459---------------------------3.6%

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:52 am
by 3rdside
Comments:

- Number of games played is likely to go down
- Player output for years 3 > 5 is a pretty good proxy for yrs 6 > 8 output

Conclusion:

- It will all come down to his health as to who wins the trade but it's not as one sided as it might appear...Suns fans might be overvaluing their asset in other words - or actually the same words I used before I did all this analysis (so I could also conclude I have just wasted a large part of my Saturday...)

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:57 am
by 3rdside
The data (i took a bit of liberty with Walton..):

Player Rookie Season No. 82 game of Seasons "Average games
/ Season" "Average games
started / Season" MPG PTS FG% No. of Seasons Since "Average games
/ Season" "Average games
started / Season" MPG PTS FG%
Khris Middleton 2013 3 80 80 33.8 19.2 0.454 2 62 53 32.3 15.4 0.454
Paul George 2011 3 78 78 35.8 22.9 0.436 3 55 53 29.7 16.0 0.403
Derrick Rose 2009 3 42 42 31.0 16.7 0.395 3 60 60 36.4 23.4 0.440
Kevin Love 2009 3 76 76 33.9 19.5 0.437 3 49 49 36.4 21.5 0.423
Danilo Gallinari 2009 3 37 27 29.5 16.0 0.406 3 59 57 32.6 15.5 0.415
Eric Gordon 2009 3 57 56 32.7 14.7 0.422 3 36 35 34.1 20.0 0.434
Wilson Chandler 2008 3 61 46 29.3 13.5 0.436 3 48 40 32.0 13.3 0.440
Monta Ellis 2006 3 73 73 38.1 21.2 0.433 3 57 54 38.3 21.6 0.477
Matt Harpring 1999 3 60 39 32.4 14.2 0.478 3 72 68 31.0 13.5 0.475
Bonzi Wells 1999 3 64 29 26.7 12.1 0.444 3 75 60 30.1 15.0 0.481
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 1998 3 80 80 31.6 16.5 0.464 3 43 24 23.6 11.4 0.456
Brian Grant 1995 3 72 55 28.7 10.6 0.480 3 44 37 29.5 11.4 0.476
Chris Webber 1994 3 62 62 39.9 23.9 0.483 3 53 53 38.6 21.9 0.514
Jamal Mashburn 1994 3 59 58 37.4 17.5 0.436 3 41 30 31.7 15.3 0.379
LaPhonso Ellis 1993 3 51 33 27.8 11.0 0.426 3 35 26 24.8 12.1 0.412
Don MacLean 1993 3 14 3 11.7 4.6 0.288 3 44 9 22.2 11.0 0.437
Dennis Scott 1991 3 76 63 32.7 13.7 0.412 3 66 30 28.2 13.9 0.425
Pervis Ellison 1990 3 43 15 20.4 4.9 0.458 3 54 45 32.6 14.9 0.510
Šarūnas Marčiulionis 1990 3 45 1 17.6 9.0 0.434 3 51 7 28.7 18.2 0.541
Rex Chapman 1989 3 54 46 33.2 16.1 0.440 3 51 34 25.8 13.5 0.457
Reggie Williams 1988 3 78 72 32.2 14.5 0.443 3 67 48 24.7 12.9 0.436
Ron Harper 1987 3 79 78 37.8 18.8 0.439 3 52 50 36.5 20.3 0.458
Johnny Dawkins 1987 3 76 35 24.9 9.2 0.431 3 39 38 33.4 14.8 0.522
John Williams 1987 3 47 5 18.4 5.0 0.406 3 44 10 31.0 14.8 0.452
Bill Walton 1975 3 62 0 34.1 18.8 0.525 3 44 39 30.1 13.1 0.542

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:46 am
by The Bobster
Walton is an interesting case. He suffered a stress fracture in his ankle during the playoffs against Seattle on 4/21/78, missing the entire 1978-79 season with Portland. Then he became a free agent in 1979 and signed with his hometown San Diego Clippers where he fractured his foot during the 1979 preseason, causing him to miss most of the 1979-80 season with Walton playing only 14 games late in the season.

His ankle and foot problems continued as he missed the next two seasons, enrolling in Stanford law school while recuperating. Walton returned in 1982-83 with instructions from his doctor not to play in more than one game a week, and appeared in 33 games, which increased to 55 and 67 the following two seasons.

By mutual consent (the Clippers didn't want to play him and Walton wanted to play for a winner) he was traded to Boston in 1985 where he could play fewer minutes as the backup for Robert Parish and Kevin McHale. Walton played a career-high 80 games in 1985-86 for the Celtics as they won the NBA title, but was injured again in 1986, missing the 1986-87, 1987-88 and 1988-89 seasons before abandoning a comeback attempt during the 1989-90 season.

In the 16 years between his being drafted by Portland and his retiring in 1990 he averaged a total of 29.25 games a season.

When he was relatively healthy in Portland Walton was the best defensive big man in the league, the 2nd best rebounder (after Moses Malone), a terrific passer and probably the second-best player after Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. If he had been born with good feet he may have spent his entire career in Portland and would be considered one of the greatest players in league history. Unfortunately, we only got to see a very small slice of that.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:01 am
by 3rdside
Well before my time but that's what I heard, he could have been one of the greats. Got the impression he was quite the indulger in his spare time; pot, acid etc... dude loved a tie-die t-shirt.

For the stats, to follow the trend of trying to make same similar period comparisons I compared his 3 >5 yrs with 8 > 10 yrs rather than (6 > 8) as both periods had one entire year out to injury and similar games played for the other two.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:47 am
by Superbone

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:37 am
by 3rdside
Wow, so I made a pretty huge error that changes the conclusion just as hugely - I referenced the 3 year periods back to front, plus I found a couple other cell errors as well.

Rule of working with data? Always check your work, which I didn't as had to rush to the office last minute annoyingly.

---------Seasons 3 > 5 Ave.---------Seasons 6 > 8 Ave.-------------Change
GP ---------49.4------------------------ 60.1----------------------------21.7%
GS ---------38.6--------------------------45.7---------------------------18.4%
MPG -------31.8--------------------------31.4---------------------------(1.5%)
PPG--------16.1--------------------------15.4---------------------------(4.4%)
FG%--------0.460----------------------- 0.444--------------------------(3.5%)

Conclusion:

- TJ's number of appearances are likely to go UP not down based on average historical data, and this is far more likely if you think he was mailing it in last season, which would indeed suggest we've traded away an asset for below market value.

Still, in the name of team dynamics, and to add a new angle doing the right thing by players i.e. they leave happy rather than bad mouthing us, a common trait of the McDonut era, let's just hope we don't get too badly burned.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:47 pm
by Superbone

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:07 pm
by Indy
Rubio is going to hurt himself in the World Cup.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:42 pm
by ShelC
Indy wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:07 pm
Rubio is going to hurt himself in the World Cup.
If he does, I'll legit cry.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:08 pm
by Phoenix219
Don't jinx it....

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:25 pm
by Indy
Phoenix219 wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:08 pm
Don't jinx it....
Pretty sure me typing something o a message board won't affect his injury future at the world cup. but i guess maybe i am a god. who knows.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:05 pm
by Superbone
Indy wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:25 pm
Phoenix219 wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:08 pm
Don't jinx it....
Pretty sure me typing something o a message board won't affect his injury future at the world cup. but i guess maybe i am a god. who knows.
Wouldn't you know?

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:17 pm
by Cap
Superbone wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:05 pm
Indy wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:25 pm
Phoenix219 wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:08 pm
Don't jinx it....
Pretty sure me typing something o a message board won't affect his injury future at the world cup. but i guess maybe i am a god. who knows.
Wouldn't you know?
Peter Quill didn’t.

Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:07 am
by Mori Chu
Indy wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:07 pm
Rubio is going to hurt himself in the World Cup.
That was the first thing that popped into my head when I saw that he was playing. Maybe for Euros it's good to have them play in the summer so they don't get fat.