2019 NBA Draft Thread

[Mori Chu]

I counted 17 high schoolers drafted in the lottery from 1995-2006. By my count 9 of them met or exceeded expectations. So roughly 8 busts...in the sense that they didn’t meet expectations of a lottery pick.(Kwame, Curry, Bender, Telfair, Miles, Swift, Webster, Diop) Some of those guys had injury issues that kept them from getting opportunities.

I further counted 22 players drafted outside of the lottery and by my count, 13 of them met or exceeded expectations including (Harrington, Lewis, Josh Smith, JR Smith, Green, Ellis, Lou Williams, Perkins, Jefferson, Stevenson, Miles, O’Neal, Johnson)

22/39 seems like a pretty standard success rate. The non lottery guys are especially good and look like better picks than college guys.

I don't think you should limit it to just players drafted in the lottery. I'd want to see *all* HS players drafted onto NBA rosters. There are a lot of guys who either busted, or stunk for multiple years in the NBA because they were too young. INF makes this point in his message. The NBA was worse because of these guys; they should have been in college, or a D league, or someplace else.

[Split T]

I included the non lottery guys...while you didn’t get the stars like KG, TMac, Kobe, or Lebron, they actually had a better success rate than the lottery guys.

Yours and Inf’s other point is fair....they’ve almost always been nowhere ready to play nba minutes, but I’m not sure it’s a whole lot different from the one and done’s we’ve seen.

Lebron is obviously the exception, but Kobe, KG, Amare, Dwight all had moments in their rookie years. In a perfect world we’d have a bridge between high school and the nba, but I don’t like college being the only answer.

Even if just to avoid the exceptions...could you imagine Lebron having had to play two years of college ball? He was pretty dominant as a rookie against nba guys...what would the point of him playing college have been? Or imagine if Zion had to go back to duke next year....who benefits there?

Ideally we’d set up the g league as an alternative option. A minor league system that works similar to baseball would be awesome. Picking someone like Dragan Bender would make much more sense if he played in the g league for 3 years and his rookie deal started next season.

I also just don’t like the ncaa. They make billions of dollars and the players who bring in that money don’t get any of it. If the g league could become essentially a mini college season with teams full of the top would be freshman and sophomores, plus a few 18-19 year old international players, and of course a few fringe nba guys trying to break into the league, we could have something. The players drafted would get signing bonuses, and then all players could get a decent salary and still be able to develop their game before being thrown into the nba.

You could still have obviously have college basketball. Just like baseball, plenty of guys go to college if they don’t get drafted where they’d like. A guy like Trae young wouldn’t have been picked high coming out of high school and would always benefit from showcasing his skills in college before the draft.

[Indy]

Is the only reason some people here want a rule that says you have to go to college first because we want to protect GMs from hiring people they shouldn't?

[Mori Chu]

Is the only reason some people here want a rule that says you have to go to college first because we want to protect GMs from hiring people they shouldn't?

I think that's a bit reductive and unfair way of saying it. But, essentially, yes. I think your argument will be that this is silly, because we shouldn't make policies around protecting GMs from themselves. And I see that argument; it seems clearly true on its face.

But I look at it differently. The risk/reward structure of the NBA is that you absolutely cannot miss on a generational superstar if you have a chance to get one. If one is available in the draft, or if there is any possibility that one is in the draft, you must take that chance. Because that is the only chance you have to get a cornerstone who you can use to buid a championship contender.

So if a bunch of high school phenoms are in the class of draft-eligible players, along with some guys who have played 1-2 years in college and done a solid job: You have to take the best high school phenom, 100% of the time. Because the college guy has already proven that he isn't Kobe, or Lebron, or AD, or whomever. If he were, he would have come out last year as a high school phenom.

Of course, many high school players struggle mightily in the NBA for their first several years. Some don't stick in the NBA at all. The incentive structure this provides will force every GM to undervalue college players and pull a bunch of guys into the NBA who aren't ready.

I think this is bad for both the NCAA and the NBA. I don't see any reason to lead the league into this kind of state. And I think it is highly likely that this would be the outcome if we let high school players come straight to the NBA.

[Indy]

You used a lot of words to explain that if you are bad as a GM/Front Office at evaluating talent, you will make a bad choice because of FOMO and that is bad for them.

I don't disagree.

But I think we should be protecting people's right to work over protecting a GM's right to not get fired (even though they have guaranteed contracts).

I think this is bad for both the NCAA and the NBA. I don't see any reason to lead the league into this kind of state. And I think it is highly likely that this would be the outcome if we let high school players come straight to the NBA.

Don't we have plenty of data on this already? I think we have fewer years of disallowing people to be hired by the ABA/NBA based on college enrollment than we do for restricted years.

[Split T]

Is the only reason some people here want a rule that says you have to go to college first because we want to protect GMs from hiring people they shouldn't?

I think that's a bit reductive and unfair way of saying it. But, essentially, yes. I think your argument will be that this is silly, because we shouldn't make policies around protecting GMs from themselves. And I see that argument; it seems clearly true on its face.

But I look at it differently. The risk/reward structure of the NBA is that you absolutely cannot miss on a generational superstar if you have a chance to get one. If one is available in the draft, or if there is any possibility that one is in the draft, you must take that chance. Because that is the only chance you have to get a cornerstone who you can use to buid a championship contender.

So if a bunch of high school phenoms are in the class of draft-eligible players, along with some guys who have played 1-2 years in college and done a solid job: You have to take the best high school phenom, 100% of the time. Because the college guy has already proven that he isn't Kobe, or Lebron, or AD, or whomever. If he were, he would have come out last year as a high school phenom.

Of course, many high school players struggle mightily in the NBA for their first several years. Some don't stick in the NBA at all. The incentive structure this provides will force every GM to undervalue college players and pull a bunch of guys into the NBA who aren't ready.

I think this is bad for both the NCAA and the NBA. I don't see any reason to lead the league into this kind of state. And I think it is highly likely that this would be the outcome if we let high school players come straight to the NBA.

These problems could mostly be solved by actually using the g league as a minor league.

[The Bobster]

You used a lot of words to explain that if you are bad as a GM/Front Office at evaluating talent, you will make a bad choice because of FOMO and that is bad for them.

I don't disagree.

But I think we should be protecting people's right to work over protecting a GM's right to not get fired (even though they have guaranteed contracts).

I think this is bad for both the NCAA and the NBA. I don't see any reason to lead the league into this kind of state. And I think it is highly likely that this would be the outcome if we let high school players come straight to the NBA.

Don't we have plenty of data on this already? I think we have fewer years of disallowing people to be hired by the ABA/NBA based on college enrollment than we do for restricted years.

Exactly. It's not the responsibility of the players entering the draft to keep teams from making mistakes and drafting the wrong players.

Teams are just looking for ways to eliminate their poor decisions at the expense of the players.

[Ring_Wanted]

If they are good to die in war, they are good to fail in the NBA.

[SDC]

If they are good to die in war, they are good to fail in the NBA.

the nba has higher standards?

[SDC]

You used a lot of words to explain that if you are bad as a GM/Front Office at evaluating talent, you will make a bad choice because of FOMO and that is bad for them.

I don't disagree.

But I think we should be protecting people's right to work over protecting a GM's right to not get fired (even though they have guaranteed contracts).

I think this is bad for both the NCAA and the NBA. I don't see any reason to lead the league into this kind of state. And I think it is highly likely that this would be the outcome if we let high school players come straight to the NBA.

Don't we have plenty of data on this already? I think we have fewer years of disallowing people to be hired by the ABA/NBA based on college enrollment than we do for restricted years.

Exactly. It's not the responsibility of the players entering the draft to keep teams from making mistakes and drafting the wrong players.

Teams are just looking for ways to eliminate their poor decisions at the expense of the players.

i'd be more willing to accept eliminating one and done if high school kids immediately start playing pro in the gleague or overseas at a younger age.

[Mori Chu]

These problems could mostly be solved by actually using the g league as a minor league.

The G League totally doesn't solve the problems I described. The GM still drafts the wrong guy straight out of HS; now he just sits in the G-League and sucks for 1-2 years. You want a system where you actually see guys play and develop BEFORE you draft them, not after.

[SDC]

quit high school, get home schooled, and go gleague full time.

[carey]

Do we think Cam Reddish can play PF in the NBA? He measures out very similar to Paul George. He's clearly skilled but isn't shooting well. Only 36% from the field? 33% from 3?

[SDC]

You used a lot of words to explain that if you are bad as a GM/Front Office at evaluating talent, you will make a bad choice because of FOMO and that is bad for them.

I don't disagree.

But I think we should be protecting people's right to work over protecting a GM's right to not get fired (even though they have guaranteed contracts).

I think this is bad for both the NCAA and the NBA. I don't see any reason to lead the league into this kind of state. And I think it is highly likely that this would be the outcome if we let high school players come straight to the NBA.

Don't we have plenty of data on this already? I think we have fewer years of disallowing people to be hired by the ABA/NBA based on college enrollment than we do for restricted years.

Exactly. It's not the responsibility of the players entering the draft to keep teams from making mistakes and drafting the wrong players.

Teams are just looking for ways to eliminate their poor decisions at the expense of the players.

making them wait for one year wont kill them. i see the teams side in wanting to keep or expand one and done rules.

the more interesting idea is eliminating age limits completely.

[carey]

What's the difference between Garland and Morant for the Suns?

[The Bobster]

making them wait for one year wont kill them. i see the teams side in wanting to keep or expand one and done rules.

the more interesting idea is eliminating age limits completely.

I think that's the legal defense the NBA used in 1971 when Spencer Haywood took them to court.

[In2ition]

What's the difference between Garland and Morant for the Suns?

Athleticism, killer drive, about 10 spots and healthy knees.

[Split T]

These problems could mostly be solved by actually using the g league as a minor league.

The G League totally doesn't solve the problems I described. The GM still drafts the wrong guy straight out of HS; now he just sits in the G-League and sucks for 1-2 years. You want a system where you actually see guys play and develop BEFORE you draft them, not after.

GM’s miss on people all the time, whether they played multiple years in college or not. I showed you earlier that high schoolers were not busts at a higher rate than college players. The biggest problem is they take longer to be ready for nba minutes. Using the g league fixes that.

[SDC]

making them wait for one year wont kill them. i see the teams side in wanting to keep or expand one and done rules.

the more interesting idea is eliminating age limits completely.

I think that's the legal defense the NBA used in 1971 when Spencer Haywood took them to court.

Haywood v. National Basketball Association , 401 U.S. 1204 (1971), was a
U.S. Supreme Court decision that ruled, 7–2, against the National Basketball Association ’s (NBA) old requirement that a player may not be drafted by an NBA team unless he waited four years (which meant playing at the college level in most cases) following his graduation from high school.

making the player wait for one year is not a huge ask. the nba already tried direct to nba approach, and it didnt really work.

[Split T]

Why would you say it didn’t work? 22/39 guys drafted met or exceeded expectations. Some exceeded by a long shot. There was 1 really bad year where 3 high school guys in the top 8 were busts(Kwame, Curry, and Diop), otherwise they were generally pretty successful.