NBA Draft 2020

[Split T]

He’s still 21 years old, he’s apart of the lineup that had the best net rating in the bubble. He was apart of the 2nd best lineup by net rating during the regular season. I have issues with Ayton, mostly because I want him to be a superstar, but I’m not looking to trade him for anything less than a star. He made tremendous growth from year 1 to year 2. Let’s see what year 3 brings.

[iLLmatic]

He’s still 21 years old, he’s apart of the lineup that had the best net rating in the bubble. He was apart of the 2nd best lineup by net rating during the regular season. I have issues with Ayton, mostly because I want him to be a superstar, but I’m not looking to trade him for anything less than a star. He made tremendous growth from year 1 to year 2. Let’s see what year 3 brings.

My guess is Year 3 will bring plenty of hubris and empty stats that don't really impact the game.

[Split T]

He’s still 21 years old, he’s apart of the lineup that had the best net rating in the bubble. He was apart of the 2nd best lineup by net rating during the regular season. I have issues with Ayton, mostly because I want him to be a superstar, but I’m not looking to trade him for anything less than a star. He made tremendous growth from year 1 to year 2. Let’s see what year 3 brings.

My guess is Year 3 will bring plenty of hubris and empty stats that don't really impact the game.

He already impacts the game a lot. You guys are overreacting to 2 games. They were concerning games, but Ayton isn’t an empty stat guy. His defensive impact this year was quite good. The gravity he draws when he rolls to the rim is huge. He’s an elite rebounder.

Don’t get me wrong, the midrange stuff frustrating. He doesn’t seem capable of offensive adjustments. He has his go to moves and sticks with them regardless if Rudy Gobert, Jae Crowder, or no one at all is guarding him. I believe I saw him take his patented baseline turnaround fall away jumper against OKC one play. Literally no one was on him. If he just caught the ball and turned towards the hoop, he had an uncontested dunk. He passes out offensive rebounds when he’s 3 feet from the hoop and has smalls on him. I really think he has his comfort zone offensively and doesn’t know what to do outside of that. He’s not an instinctual player.

Still, if we could take 1/3rd of his midrange game and turn that into 3’s, take another 3rd and turn it into hard rolls to the rim, leave him a 3rd to satisfy his mid range craving and he’s a dangerous offensive weapon. The defense is coming.

But let’s trade him for a bench 5 on one of the worst teams in the East? I think Mitchell Robinson is good, and he’s better than a bench player for the Knicks, but he’s not better than Ayton. He’s like a Rudy Gobert clone right now.

[specialsauce]

My biggest concern is that he will expect a max as a first pick overall.

Right now to me he is a slightly more offensively polished Clint Capela, and if he stays that way that is OK but his contract extension should reflect that level. 18-20 mill annually, not 30+

We will not win a title paying Clint Capela a third of our salary cap.

[Split T]

I think he’s more then slightly more polished than capela. Capela is just a dunker. Problem is he doesn’t know what he is. He wants to be some kind of mix between Embiid/KAT, but he’s more like Vucevic? He’s ok as the screener, if he’s going to pop he should pop to 3 more than mid range, but I’d rather he roll.

The problem is when we give him the ball in the post. He’s got good touch, so when he gets it low, he’s pretty efficient. When he gets it in the mid post, he’s bad. That’s where Embiid goes to work, he attacks off the dribble and goes right at the defender drawing foul after foul. That’s the skill I most want Ayton to learn.

[INFORMER]

Still, if we could take 1/3rd of his midrange game and turn that into 3’s, take another 3rd and turn it into hard rolls to the rim, leave him a 3rd to satisfy his mid range craving and he’s a dangerous offensive weapon.

Or he can just work on his mid-range jumper until it becomes automatic.

#OlajuwonPart2

[Cap]

You can both be right. Yes, he should work on the middy until it’s automatic, and should make the three a legitimate weapon. But he should also be able to drive on his man or post him up when matchups dictate. Those skills are all part of being a complete player, which I think is what Ayton wants to be.

[INFORMER]

Yes, he should work on the middy until it’s automatic, and should make the three a legitimate weapon. But he should also be able to drive on his man or post him up when matchups dictate.

It's all about priorities. And working on his "middy" is directly related to his driving game. We'll always be able to give the ball to Ayton in the mid-post; it would be very hard for teams to take that away. If he has an automatic mid-range jumper, the defender is screwed. He can either play off of him, and watch Ayton drain jumper after jumper. Or he can crowd him and Ayton blows by him to attack the hoop.

The 3-point shot just doesn't have as much utility, especially since everyone sharing the court with Ayton will be better shooters, except for maybe Rubio.

[Cap]

Yes, he should work on the middy until it’s automatic, and should make the three a legitimate weapon. But he should also be able to drive on his man or post him up when matchups dictate.

It's all about priorities.

And making the best use of his time. At home, he can spend hour after hour every day working on his jumper. All he really needs is somebody to rebound and somebody to hold the broom. When he has the support of a team and a coaching staff, he can spend that time working on things that need the team and support to work on.

[Flagrant Fowl]

He needs some kind of machine similar to the one receivers use in football, but it sends him different kinds of passes at different speeds. Most of all, he needs to keep his damn hands up and ready to receive a pass. His first mistake is simply not having his hands in the right position to receive the ball.

[Ring_Wanted]

My guess is Year 3 will bring plenty of hubris and empty stats that don't really impact the game.

I don't agree with the empty stats idea, and it needs to stop now.

What is empty stats (Of course, anyone feel free to add or substract to the definition)? To me, empty stats occur when a) you are an inefficient chucker, because you are doing more harm than good to your team; b) you are a tanking team, because it doesn't matter if you score, rebound or whatever; and c) your production comes in garbage time, because tanking or not, there is no impact on the game.

Ayton is not in any of those situations in 2020. Ayton gives you production all game long, and pretty efficiently at that; he also alters the other team's plan in quite an obvious way:

On defense, don't you see guys giving up on the perimeter, or being shadowed when they go to the basket? Ayton offers invaluable switching ability in this age, to go along with rim protection. He is top20 in defended FG% (min. 35 games), with a catch in his favor: the frequency is 18'8, and among those above him in %, the only one who defends more shots than Ayton every game is Gobert at 20'3.

On offense, don't you see that, despite not getting many fouls or dunks, teams often crowd him but almost anything he touches near the rim is a basket? Terrific scoring inside plus mid range ability and even a sweet old school fadeaway (some people hate to see it, as they want Ayton to bully like Shaq, but greats like Ewing used to do this a lot) to give you a 55'8% 2ptFG on top5 frequency (14'5 attempts per game). Among players with higher frequency, only Giannis is better (63'3%). Among the top20 in frequency, Ayton is bested only by Giannis, Zion, LeBron, Montrezl and Sabonis.

Of course, he won't give us this 100% of the plays or games, and I hate when he just stands there looking or not using his arms. He obviously can do more. Now, motor, mindset and ability to add certain mechanichal skills (3pt, dribbling, catching passes) will determine if he becomes David Robinson 2.0, but even if it never happens, he is an outstanding player. Just happens to drive us crazy because of our expectations from being a #1 pick, his obvious physical gifts, the fact that he is not Luka Docic (well on his way to all time status) and his unwarranted big mouth.

But that shouldn't be used to diminish what he actually provides at the moment (basically his floor), which is quite significant and very well within what you can expect from a 3rd option on a winning team.

[Ring_Wanted]

...slightly more offensively polished Clint Capela...

[Wally_West]

+1 on all of Ring’s post.

[Mori Chu]

Thanks, Ring. I agree with all you wrote. Ayton gives great production most nights in terms of points and rebounds, and he does so super efficiently, and he doesn't demand the ball on every possession, and he's a pretty good defender. That's almost exactly what I want out of my center. Yes, it'd be nice if he attacked the basket more aggressively, and yes he sometimes messes up on defense, and so on. But what he provides is really really hard to find, and I think he's a great fit next to a bunch of scorers like Booker and Oubre, and a great mesh with Rubio on fastbreaks and pick-and-rolls.

[Aztec Sunsfan]

I could spare Ayton more if only he was as soft/passive in front of microphones as he is on the paint. His mouth and his motor lacks balance.

[Oatmeal]

Y'all are being awfully hard on Ayton. He's on the way to becoming an elite defensive C who gives you 20/12 on top of that. This team is just learning to win and play defensive basketball. Give him some time. Remember when Booker was just empty stats?

[Superbone]

Booker was always aggressive.

[virtual9mm]

Ayton's just a stupid kid that needs to grow up. A lot.

[Wally_West]

Ayton made such huge improvements from year 1, I want to see what year 3 looks like under Monty. He probably won’t be a superstar but he still can be a fantastic sidekick to Booker. A robin to his Batman.

Unless of course you can trade him for Giannis like Split suggested, then they should do that.

[Indy]

Ayton made such huge improvements from year 1, I want to see what year 3 looks like under Monty. He probably won’t be a superstar but he still can be a fantastic sidekick to Booker. A robin to his Batman.

Unless of course you can trade him for Giannis like Split suggested, then they should do that.