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Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:01 pm
by O_Gardino
ShelC wrote: ↑Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:02 pm
Grant Hill might not be a bad comp for Jackson. Similar in terms of size, ballhandling ability. Grant was a much more fundamental offensive player from midrange, but struggled from 3 because of form. Grant seemed more much of a point forward though, whereas Jackson is a SF who can put the ball on the floor and slash to the basket. He can pass, but I don't think he's necessarily looking to set others up. Better version of Thabo? Ronnie Brewer? Nic Batum without the outside shot?
I would love to see Grant Hill teaching Jackson how to play. They have a lot in common physically and in their skill set, but as you say, they have very different styles. One comp Eddie made a lot last season was 'Nique. Josh can really get to the rim.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:15 pm
by Split T
Andre Iguodala is someone I'd like Jackson to emulate
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:39 pm
by ShelC
Iguodala came to mind and I know he's been mentioned before. I think his ballhandling was better overall and he was more of an offensive player early on. Not a bad comp tho.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:12 pm
by JeremyG
Split T wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:47 am
Could a 16pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk while shooting .44/.32/.70 be considered a great player? How good would his defense need to be?
If you allow 16.1 pts, 6.4 reb, 5.2 ast, 2.0 stl, 0.8 blk while shooting .473/.326/.704...well then those are the career statistics of someone named...
Scottie Pippen.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:00 am
by Mori Chu
O_Gardino wrote: ↑Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:56 pm
Split T wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:47 am
A lot depends on how the rest of his game develops. I think he's got the skillset to be a perimeter version of Draymond. Draymond can make 3's, but he's below average. Draymond is pretty special defensively though and Jackson will never be able to defend 5's like he can.
Still, I can envision a scenario where Jackson is a below average 3 pt shooter(under 33%) but defends multiple positions(1-4) at a very high level and can be a point forward type on offense in a system with multiple creators and lots of shooters around him.
Could a 16pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk while shooting .44/.32/.70 be considered a great player? How good would his defense need to be?
I searched for similar seasons in BKref. I allowed 16pts, 6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals (or better) among players listed as forwards or guard-forwards. There are 77 such seasons on record. 68 were all star selections, and 9 were not. It's really hard for a forward to get that many assists without being a primary initiator in the offense. His actual defense could stink with numbers like those, and he would still be considered a good defender and all-star level players.
Here is the filter for seasons that did not earn an allstar appearance.
http://bkref.com/tiny/tZ7z3
That's a nice list to be part of. I do think that if the front office believes strongly in Jackson and wants him to be our starting 3 next to Booker, then we probably don't want a traditional Rubio/Nash PG who runs the offense. We would instead want sharpshooters at both guard positions and then let the offense be run by a combination of the PG, Booker, and Jackson on various plays.
I don't know if Brandon Knight can be that PG. If his shooting is really sharp this year, and if he doesn't hog the ball and clog the offense, maybe it can be him. I am pessimistic but I hope the guy figures it out. I think if I could rub a magic lamp and make Knight better at one thing, it'd be his decision-making, so that he'd know when to shoot and when to pass. If he had that, the rest would follow.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:20 pm
by Indy
Marty [Mori Chu] wrote: ↑Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:00 am
O_Gardino wrote: ↑Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:56 pm
Split T wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:47 am
A lot depends on how the rest of his game develops. I think he's got the skillset to be a perimeter version of Draymond. Draymond can make 3's, but he's below average. Draymond is pretty special defensively though and Jackson will never be able to defend 5's like he can.
Still, I can envision a scenario where Jackson is a below average 3 pt shooter(under 33%) but defends multiple positions(1-4) at a very high level and can be a point forward type on offense in a system with multiple creators and lots of shooters around him.
Could a 16pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk while shooting .44/.32/.70 be considered a great player? How good would his defense need to be?
I searched for similar seasons in BKref. I allowed 16pts, 6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals (or better) among players listed as forwards or guard-forwards. There are 77 such seasons on record. 68 were all star selections, and 9 were not. It's really hard for a forward to get that many assists without being a primary initiator in the offense. His actual defense could stink with numbers like those, and he would still be considered a good defender and all-star level players.
Here is the filter for seasons that did not earn an allstar appearance.
http://bkref.com/tiny/tZ7z3
That's a nice list to be part of. I do think that if the front office believes strongly in Jackson and wants him to be our starting 3 next to Booker, then we probably don't want a traditional Rubio/Nash PG who runs the offense. We would instead want sharpshooters at both guard positions and then let the offense be run by a combination of the PG, Booker, and Jackson on various plays.
I don't know if Brandon Knight can be that PG.
If his shooting is really sharp this year, and if he doesn't hog the ball and clog the offense, maybe it can be him. I am pessimistic but I hope the guy figures it out. I think if I could rub a magic lamp and make Knight better at one thing, it'd be his decision-making, so that he'd know when to shoot and when to pass. If he had that, the rest would follow.
You see a demonstrably better 3P% from Knight before he came to the Suns. It was a really good percentage for a starter with a high volume of 3s taken. What changed is that we took him out of his natural position.
Before coming to the Suns, he played over 92% of his minutes at the PG spot. Since coming to the Suns, only 42%. Of course he is going to be looking for his own shot when he finally gets the ball.
If we can play him at PG, and have other guys to draw attention like Booker and Ayton, and even Ariza, I think it is fair to expect something close to his non-Suns career averages of 37% from 3. That would put him behind only Daniels and Booker.
tl;dr
If we use BK as a PG, we should expect better shooting.
Code: Select all
Mins @ PG 3P%
Pre-Suns 92% 36.7
On Suns 42% 33.4
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:13 pm
by Aztec Sunsfan
Marty [Mori Chu] wrote: ↑Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:00 am
I think if I could rub a magic lamp and make Knight better at one thing, it'd be his decision-making, so that he'd know when to shoot and when to pass. If he had that, the rest would follow.
Not to exonerate the guy, but I think this team (coaches and GM’s “dual PG gimmick”) messed up big time Brandon’s decision-making, and as you said, the rest of his game followed and crashed. Hopefully is reversible and we finally get a functional PG we’ve paying but no receiving so far.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:27 am
by ShelC
Knight's numbers weren't terrible before he got here. We played him out of position, had a terrible coach, terrible offense. That said, I don't know if he's a "winning" player. Can he put up numbers on a winning team, or does he put up 19-7 and hit some 3s on mediocre/bad teams. I'd wonder if asking him to do less would make him more effective. Kind of like Leandro...he was fine off the bench in a certain role, but playing too many minutes or asking him to run point made him less effective. If we have more of a spread offense with Booker or Jackson handling and passing, does that mean Knight makes less dumb decisions or cuts down on bad shots? Maybe.
I'd also like to see what Knight's 3pt shooting is like in catch and shoot situations, rather than pull up or off the dribble. If he can shoot effectively off passes, he might be the shooting/scoring guard who can play in a spread offense next to Booker and Jackson. If he's only effective with the ball in his hands, dribbling for 16 seconds to create and make his own shot, then it won't work.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:52 am
by Split T
Knight shot 37% on catch and shoot 3's in 15-16, the year before in Milwaukee he shot 40%. He was only 31% in 16-17, but he was awful that year. Seems like he's capable of being a good catch and shoot guy.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:20 am
by Indy
Aztec Sunsfan wrote: ↑Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:13 pm
Marty [Mori Chu] wrote: ↑Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:00 am
I think if I could rub a magic lamp and make Knight better at one thing, it'd be his decision-making, so that he'd know when to shoot and when to pass. If he had that, the rest would follow.
Not to exonerate the guy, but I think this team (coaches and GM’s “dual PG gimmick”) messed up big time Brandon’s decision-making, and as you said, the rest of his game followed and crashed. Hopefully is reversible and we finally get a functional PG we’ve paying but no receiving so far.
I remember being at a game shortly after he got here, and thought how much better at decision making he was than Bledsoe. He should have been the PG, but Bledsoe was too short and couldn't shoot, and was only effective with the ball in his hands driving to the hoop. Such stupid decision making by this front office and coaching teams...
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:21 am
by Indy
Split T wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:52 am
Knight shot 37% on catch and shoot 3's in 15-16, the year before in Milwaukee he shot 40%. He was only 31% in 16-17, but he was awful that year. Seems like he's capable of being a good catch and shoot guy.
Exactly. I have the same concerns Shel does about him perhaps not being a winning player, but I am not that concerned about his shooting or even his decision making if he is the primary PG.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:52 am
by The Bobster
If he plays like he did in Milwaukee (when they played him as a PG) they're okay.
If he plays like he has with the Suns (as a SG/PG) then they're in trouble.
Some of that might be from playing alongside Bledsoe, but he's still the closest thing they have to a real point guard so they have to at least give him a look there (especially since he's not next to no trade value right now).
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:54 am
by Superbone
The Bobster wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:52 am
If he plays like he did in Milwaukee (when they played him as a PG) they're okay.
If he plays like he has with the Suns (as a SG/PG) then they're in trouble.
Some of that might be from playing alongside Bledsoe, but he's still the closest thing they have to a real point guard so they have to at league give him a look there (especially since he's not next to no trade value right now).
Fingers crossed big time that he plays like his BASE days. If so, we might have a decent team out of the box.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:56 pm
by Split T
How good are we if:
Knight is BASE
Booker is AASW (Actual All Star in West)
Ayton is ROY
Jackson takes an Ingram like leap in year 2
Warren shows up with a corner 3
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:16 pm
by Superbone
Split T wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:56 pm
How good are we if:
Knight is BASE
Booker is AASW (Actual All Star in West)
Ayton is ROY
Jackson takes an Ingram like leap in year 2
Warren shows up with a corner 3
That would be glorious and we'd approach .500 I'd think, if not surpass it.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:17 pm
by In2ition
Split T wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:56 pm
How good are we if:
Knight is BASE
Booker is AASW (Actual All Star in West)
Ayton is ROY
Jackson takes an Ingram like leap in year 2
Warren shows up with a corner 3
You could add:
Bender and/or Chriss take a leap to look close to their draft position.
Mikal, Shaq and Davon all play net positive minutes
Ariza and Chandler both play effective minutes in however many minutes they play.
Okobo proves he was a steal at 31.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:37 pm
by Indy
In2ition wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:17 pm
Split T wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:56 pm
How good are we if:
Knight is BASE
Booker is AASW (Actual All Star in West)
Ayton is ROY
Jackson takes an Ingram like leap in year 2
Warren shows up with a corner 3
You could add:
Bender and/or Chriss take a leap to look close to their draft position.
Mikal, Shaq and Davon all play net positive minutes
Ariza and Chandler both play effective minutes in however many minutes they play.
Okobo proves he was a steal at 31.
As crazy as this sounds, Split's list seems like any one of those items could realistically happen this year. Very unlikely more than 1 or 2 happen, but each seems plausible. That makes me think about 2018-19 as a positive move for the org.
But then I read the next list, and I just think there is no way any of it can happen. If you split the penultimate line into two, I could see the Ariza one happening (and it better since it was our big move this summer). So then I think I am back to being cynical. sigh.
maybe i should read the 2nd list first, then the first.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:37 pm
by Indy
Superbone wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:16 pm
Split T wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:56 pm
How good are we if:
Knight is BASE
Booker is AASW (Actual All Star in West)
Ayton is ROY
Jackson takes an Ingram like leap in year 2
Warren shows up with a corner 3
That would be glorious and we'd approach .500 I'd think, if not surpass it.
If all of that were to happen, I have to think we are upper 40s in wins and fighting for a top 4 seed.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:07 pm
by Superbone
Indy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:37 pm
In2ition wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:17 pm
Split T wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:56 pm
How good are we if:
Knight is BASE
Booker is AASW (Actual All Star in West)
Ayton is ROY
Jackson takes an Ingram like leap in year 2
Warren shows up with a corner 3
You could add:
Bender and/or Chriss take a leap to look close to their draft position.
Mikal, Shaq and Davon all play net positive minutes
Ariza and Chandler both play effective minutes in however many minutes they play.
Okobo proves he was a steal at 31.
As crazy as this sounds, Split's list seems like any one of those items could realistically happen this year. Very unlikely more than 1 or 2 happen, but each seems plausible. That makes me think about 2018-19 as a positive move for the org.
But then I read the next list, and I just think there is no way any of it can happen. If you split the penultimate line into two, I could see the Ariza one happening (and it better since it was our big move this summer). So then I think I am back to being cynical. sigh.
maybe i should read the 2nd list first, then the first.
Or maybe pretend that there is no 2nd list. You never saw it.
Re: Devin Booker Signs Five-Year, $158 Million Deal
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:32 pm
by Mori Chu
Split T wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:56 pm
How good are we if:
Knight is BASE
Booker is AASW (Actual All Star in West)
Ayton is ROY
Jackson takes an Ingram like leap in year 2
Warren shows up with a corner 3
I mean, if all the good things happened, we'd be a playoff team. I personally don't think they all will, but I'm still rooting for all of those guys you named to have big seasons.
Here's a question about your post: Which of the items you listed is MOST and LEAST likely to happen?