Phx-Suns.Net

I wonder if it's even necessary - he's at .412% for 3's and .732% for 2's....even with .673% FT he's still got a TS% of a whopping .673%.

It's certainly an unorthodox release, and it looks like it would be slow. It's not slow though, he gets it out quick af.

In2ition wrote:It's certainly an unorthodox release, and it looks like it would be slow. It's not slow though, he gets it out quick af.

People look at it and think its slow but just watch his highlights, he gets that shot off with very little space. Part of that is because he is not a faker. He makes one quick decision and does it just before the defender can be ready.

I would not touch his shot.

JCSunsfan wrote:

In2ition wrote:It's certainly an unorthodox release, and it looks like it would be slow. It's not slow though, he gets it out quick af.

People look at it and think its slow but just watch his highlights, he gets that shot off with very little space. Part of that is because he is not a faker. He makes one quick decision and does it just before the defender can be ready.

I would not touch his shot.

I wouldn't touch it either but I would have thought that a shot that starts lower and raises at an angle across his body, rather than going straight up, means the ball has further to travel before release and therefore takes longer to release.

Just a guess, I wonder if there's any credibility in a 'release timing' metric or something..

Watch his highlights and try to find a mid range jump shot. They don't exist. He creates space by firing away from 25 feet. He gets it off fairly quick, but it's all step backs. I've never seen him come around a pick, get into the lane and pull up.

Split T wrote:Watch his highlights and try to find a mid range jump shot. They don't exist. He creates space by firing away from 25 feet. He gets it off fairly quick, but it's all step backs. I've never seen him come around a pick, get into the lane and pull up.

You're right, but it hasn't hurt his teams or his production. The only place it hurts him is in the minds of his detractors invisioning his bust future because of it.

I haven't seen anyone call him a bust. I think he'll be a good player, but his lack of any mid-range game makes him more predictable. College defenses didn't really take advantage, but NBA defenses will. He'll need to find a way to counteract it.

Just had a look at Ball vs Fultz shooting %'s:

Ball 2pt% = .731% (109 / 149)
Ball 3pt% = .412% (80 / 194)
Ball FG% = .551% (189 / 343)

Ball TS% = .683%


Fultz 2pt% = .502 ( 157 / 313)
Fultz 3pt% = .413% (52 / 126)
Fultz FG% = .476% (209 / 439)

Fultz TS% = .558%


- Ball 2pt% is spectacular because he's got excellent driving ability for the layup and excellent timing on cutting and alley-ooping as you guys are saying.
- Ball TS% is outstanding even with only .673% FT (66 / 98)

- Fultz 2pt% is good in it's own right and probably would be better if he was taking less, but better, shots if he could pass to better team mates.
- Fultz TS% is good in it's own right even with only .649% FT (109 / 168)

Fultz no doubt has the makings of an outstanding player but has there ever been a guard with Ball's TS%?

Split T wrote:I haven't seen anyone call him a bust. I think he'll be a good player, but his lack of any mid-range game makes him more predictable. College defenses didn't really take advantage, but NBA defenses will. He'll need to find a way to counteract it.

But if Ball's team plays a transition game, then is his personal game really that predictable? He creates a helter skelter offense, and drives for the easy lay up, dishes for an assist or shoot's the three.

The guy is made for a Mike DA system either way.

I don't think those shooting number comps are fair if they are broken down only to twos and threes. If Ball never shoots farther than 5 feet from the rim then those are lay up numbers being compared to a healthy mix of mid range and rim numbers.

It's true that they are shooting different kinds of shots. But I don't want to penalize Ball for that. He finds the shots he can get that he is comfortable making, and he makes them. Fultz likes taking different kinds of shots. That's how the numbers end up. Why penalize Ball? The only logical reason would be if we think he won't get those kinds of shots in the NBA. But I think he'll still be able to get to the rim and take layups and short shots if he wants them. And we know he can already shoot NBA 3s.

Marty wrote:And we know he can already shoot NBA 3s.

Does it not worry you that he often has to take step-back 3's just to get the shot off? And that was against college defenses. I just don't know how effective Ball can be at the next level.

3rdside wrote:

Split T wrote:I haven't seen anyone call him a bust. I think he'll be a good player, but his lack of any mid-range game makes him more predictable. College defenses didn't really take advantage, but NBA defenses will. He'll need to find a way to counteract it.

But if Ball's team plays a transition game, then is his personal game really that predictable? He creates a helter skelter offense, and drives for the easy lay up, dishes for an assist or shoot's the three.

The guy is made for a Mike DA system either way.

I think he'll be lethal in transition, but not every play is going to be a transition play. He'll have to run a lot of half court sets and while I don't think he's going to bad at it, he's going to have some struggles. When compared to someone like Fultz, it becomes apparent, Fultz is going to be a very dangerous half court player. I think Ball would be best suited next to another playmaker who can handle some of the load in the half court offense. Good situations might be Boston with IT, LA with Russell, and potentially philly with Ben Simmons, Orlando with elfrid payton, or here with booker. Not a big fan of the fit with the kings or knicks.

Split T wrote:

3rdside wrote:

Split T wrote:I haven't seen anyone call him a bust. I think he'll be a good player, but his lack of any mid-range game makes him more predictable. College defenses didn't really take advantage, but NBA defenses will. He'll need to find a way to counteract it.

But if Ball's team plays a transition game, then is his personal game really that predictable? He creates a helter skelter offense, and drives for the easy lay up, dishes for an assist or shoot's the three.

The guy is made for a Mike DA system either way.

I think he'll be lethal in transition, but not every play is going to be a transition play. He'll have to run a lot of half court sets and while I don't think he's going to bad at it, he's going to have some struggles. When compared to someone like Fultz, it becomes apparent, Fultz is going to be a very dangerous half court player. I think Ball would be best suited next to another playmaker who can handle some of the load in the half court offense. Good situations might be Boston with IT, LA with Russell, and potentially philly with Ben Simmons, Orlando with elfrid payton, or here with booker. Not a big fan of the fit with the kings or knicks.

You mean someone like....Devin Booker?

Yes, you did.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:It's true that they are shooting different kinds of shots. But I don't want to penalize Ball for that. He finds the shots he can get that he is comfortable making, and he makes them. Fultz likes taking different kinds of shots. That's how the numbers end up. Why penalize Ball? The only logical reason would be if we think he won't get those kinds of shots in the NBA. But I think he'll still be able to get to the rim and take layups and short shots if he wants them. And we know he can already shoot NBA 3s.

You're right, you don't penalize ball for shooting 70% on 2's, but it doesn't make him better than Fultz. One of, if not the rarest skill to find in the NBA is a player who can score efficiently in ISO situations. Can a player break down his opponent and either score for himself or create an opportunity for a teammate? Fultz can do that. Ball can sorta do that. Ball proved pretty efficient at hitting step back 3's and getting to the rim, but mostly in transition as far as getting to the rim.

Watch highlights of Fultz and he's splitting pick and rolls, spinning through the lane, taking fall away jumpers, and finishing over, under, and around bigs at the rim. There is something to be said for ball getting easier shots, but sometimes you can't get those and having someone who can still create a good opportunity from nothing is very valuable. Outside of step back 3's, which will be 3 or 4 feet further back, I don't really see that from ball, yet.

Ball is clearly better in transition and seems likely to have a bigger impact on his teammates play, but is that enough to counteract Fultz being quite a bit better in the half court? I'm not sure, but right now I still think Fultz is more valuable. While he is a scoring guard, he's not Brandon knight or Steve Francis. He's more Brandon Roy or James harden. I would not be surprised to see him have a similar impact one day as harden.

3rdside wrote:

Split T wrote:

3rdside wrote:

Split T wrote:I haven't seen anyone call him a bust. I think he'll be a good player, but his lack of any mid-range game makes him more predictable. College defenses didn't really take advantage, but NBA defenses will. He'll need to find a way to counteract it.

But if Ball's team plays a transition game, then is his personal game really that predictable? He creates a helter skelter offense, and drives for the easy lay up, dishes for an assist or shoot's the three.

The guy is made for a Mike DA system either way.

I think he'll be lethal in transition, but not every play is going to be a transition play. He'll have to run a lot of half court sets and while I don't think he's going to bad at it, he's going to have some struggles. When compared to someone like Fultz, it becomes apparent, Fultz is going to be a very dangerous half court player. I think Ball would be best suited next to another playmaker who can handle some of the load in the half court offense. Good situations might be Boston with IT, LA with Russell, and potentially philly with Ben Simmons, Orlando with elfrid payton, or here with booker. Not a big fan of the fit with the kings or knicks.

You mean someone like....Devin Booker?

Ya, I think he could be a pretty good fit alongside booker. I'd like to see some more consistency from booker as a playmaker though.

3rdside wrote:Yes, you did.

I'll hand it to you. That was a good recovery.

Split T wrote:

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:It's true that they are shooting different kinds of shots. But I don't want to penalize Ball for that. He finds the shots he can get that he is comfortable making, and he makes them. Fultz likes taking different kinds of shots. That's how the numbers end up. Why penalize Ball? The only logical reason would be if we think he won't get those kinds of shots in the NBA. But I think he'll still be able to get to the rim and take layups and short shots if he wants them. And we know he can already shoot NBA 3s.

You're right, you don't penalize ball for shooting 70% on 2's, but it doesn't make him better than Fultz. One of, if not the rarest skill to find in the NBA is a player who can score efficiently in ISO situations. Can a player break down his opponent and either score for himself or create an opportunity for a teammate? Fultz can do that. Ball can sorta do that. Ball proved pretty efficient at hitting step back 3's and getting to the rim, but mostly in transition as far as getting to the rim.

Watch highlights of Fultz and he's splitting pick and rolls, spinning through the lane, taking fall away jumpers, and finishing over, under, and around bigs at the rim. There is something to be said for ball getting easier shots, but sometimes you can't get those and having someone who can still create a good opportunity from nothing is very valuable. Outside of step back 3's, which will be 3 or 4 feet further back, I don't really see that from ball, yet.

Ball is clearly better in transition and seems likely to have a bigger impact on his teammates play, but is that enough to counteract Fultz being quite a bit better in the half court? I'm not sure, but right now I still think Fultz is more valuable. While he is a scoring guard, he's not Brandon knight or Steve Francis. He's more Brandon Roy or James harden. I would not be surprised to see him have a similar impact one day as harden.

This is not Ball bashing. This is a very fair and balanced take.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:It's true that they are shooting different kinds of shots. But I don't want to penalize Ball for that. He finds the shots he can get that he is comfortable making, and he makes them. Fultz likes taking different kinds of shots. That's how the numbers end up. Why penalize Ball? The only logical reason would be if we think he won't get those kinds of shots in the NBA. But I think he'll still be able to get to the rim and take layups and short shots if he wants them. And we know he can already shoot NBA 3s.

I wasn't penalizing Ball for anything in particular, just pointing out that statistics aren't always comparable. As a player, one can be disciplined enough to only take good shots, in which case he can have a great FG%, but to take an extreme example, Jordan shot 71% on FG% for the season, but I wouldn't want him to be taking the last shot for me in a tight game. Obviously discipline is a good thing, but with a first or second overall pick, which doesn't come around that often, I guess I'd like to get a guy who can finish games for me and be the one guy to get buckets when all the others are shut down or playing poorly.

I've wavered between Ball and Fultz several times personally. Haven't fully decided I want to go one way or another. But as I mentioned so many times already, that sidewinder shot is really bothering me. Not only is it going to affect his ability to shoot the midrange shot, it's very difficult for him right now to shoot while going right. Even when he drives right he still does a side hop back to his left before releasing, which means smarter/stronger/faster defenders can just overplay his left and play for the pass... Overall I'm not comfortable with all the implications.