Game Day: Suns (18-39) @ Bulls (28-29), Fri 2/24/17

[Ring_Wanted]

I say more than 15M per. From us. How bout dah

[Shabazz]

I thought the Cody Zeller Contract ($56M/4) was a very good comp for him and I think that's what he'll settle at. Zeller was picked before Len and has probably been more valuable to this point, but also has less upside.

[Split T]

I thought the Cody Zeller Contract ($56M/4) was a very good comp for him and I think that's what he'll settle at. Zeller was picked before Len and has probably been more valuable to this point, but also has less upside.

I'd be OK with that contract. Anything above $60M/4 would make me think. 72/4 would be a no for me.

[carey]

Anything above 4/48 is a no for me... right now. He has not looked good at all these past couple of games.

[Mori Chu]

Teams who are projected to have space to sign Len to an 18 million dollar offer sheet:

Celtics, Nets, Mavs, Nuggets, Pacers, Lakers, Heat, TWolves, Knicks, Sixers, Magic, Bulls, Hawks, Kings

Teams who could create enough cap space if needed:

Warriors, Clippers, Pelicans, Spurs, Jazz

Lets first throw out Warriors, Clippers, and Jazz as they'd have to renounce their stars in order to get cap space(Curry, Durant, Paul, Griffin, Hayward, Hill)
I'd throw out Pelicans because they'd have to renounce Holiday and then spend that money on a back up center when they have no guards. Spurs would have to renounce Pau Gasol.

Celtics have the cap space and Len would actually fill a need. Boston more likely to chase bigger targets, but can't rule them out.
Nets could throw him an offer sheet if they strike out on their primary targets.
Mavs have their own RFA Center in Noel that they will be focused on instead.
Nuggets also have their own RFA C in Plumlee
Pacers have a younger, better C prospect in Turner
Lakers just spent 16 million on a 3rd string C, they'll want to save their money for stars.
Heat have whiteside and would have to renounce a few key role players
Wolves already resigned their own C from this draft class(dieng)
Knicks have Noah at 18/year and have younger cheaper options as well(porzingis, o'quinn, hernangomez)
Sixers need guards, they're trying to get rid of big men
Magic also need gaurds
Bulls have Robin Lopez, but Len might be an upgrade
Hawks have Dwight, may want to try and retain Millsap
Kings could be an option, but they already have too many young bigs that need minutes.

So you're right, there doesn't appear to be any obvious candidates who would go after Len, but teams always do surprising things. Celtics, Nets, Bulls, and Kings are the 4 most realistic teams I could see making Len an offer.

Bravo, sir. Excellently researched post with lots of great info. I conclude that we can probably retain Len at a "reasonable" price if we want to.

[specialsauce]

I'd give him a 2 year deal at 7 mill per

[carey]

I'll only add that there was no obvious destination for Eric Bledsoe, we were essentially bidding against ourselves, and he still got 5/$70M. Idk.

[Indy]

I'll only add that there was no obvious destination for Eric Bledsoe, we were essentially bidding against ourselves, and he still got 5/$70M. Idk.

Too true.

[Indy]

Mozgov and Mahinmi got 16 million per least off-season, so yes, I think someone will give him 15 million.

The cap is going down next season from $108m to $102m so there should be some downward pressure on salaries by default.

Just going down from where it was projected to be. This year's cap was 94 million, so it's still going up to the projected 102 million. Len is getting 15+ million, he might get 18-20 million.

Is he though? Who is offering him that contract? Who has the space and the need for a center? NJ maybe, but other than them, I don't know where this contract is going to come from.

Teams who are projected to have space to sign Len to an 18 million dollar offer sheet:

Celtics, Nets, Mavs, Nuggets, Pacers, Lakers, Heat, TWolves, Knicks, Sixers, Magic, Bulls, Hawks, Kings

Teams who could create enough cap space if needed:

Warriors, Clippers, Pelicans, Spurs, Jazz

Lets first throw out Warriors, Clippers, and Jazz as they'd have to renounce their stars in order to get cap space(Curry, Durant, Paul, Griffin, Hayward, Hill)
I'd throw out Pelicans because they'd have to renounce Holiday and then spend that money on a back up center when they have no guards. Spurs would have to renounce Pau Gasol.

Celtics have the cap space and Len would actually fill a need. Boston more likely to chase bigger targets, but can't rule them out.
Nets could throw him an offer sheet if they strike out on their primary targets.
Mavs have their own RFA Center in Noel that they will be focused on instead.
Nuggets also have their own RFA C in Plumlee
Pacers have a younger, better C prospect in Turner
Lakers just spent 16 million on a 3rd string C, they'll want to save their money for stars.
Heat have whiteside and would have to renounce a few key role players
Wolves already resigned their own C from this draft class(dieng)
Knicks have Noah at 18/year and have younger cheaper options as well(porzingis, o'quinn, hernangomez)
Sixers need guards, they're trying to get rid of big men
Magic also need gaurds
Bulls have Robin Lopez, but Len might be an upgrade
Hawks have Dwight, may want to try and retain Millsap
Kings could be an option, but they already have too many young bigs that need minutes.

So you're right, there doesn't appear to be any obvious candidates who would go after Len, but teams always do surprising things. Celtics, Nets, Bulls, and Kings are the 4 most realistic teams I could see making Len an offer.

Really great summary, Split

[JCSunsfan]

Mozgov and Mahinmi got 16 million per least off-season, so yes, I think someone will give him 15 million.

The cap is going down next season from $108m to $102m so there should be some downward pressure on salaries by default.

Just going down from where it was projected to be. This year's cap was 94 million, so it's still going up to the projected 102 million. Len is getting 15+ million, he might get 18-20 million.

Is he though? Who is offering him that contract? Who has the space and the need for a center? NJ maybe, but other than them, I don't know where this contract is going to come from.

Teams who are projected to have space to sign Len to an 18 million dollar offer sheet:

Celtics, Nets, Mavs, Nuggets, Pacers, Lakers, Heat, TWolves, Knicks, Sixers, Magic, Bulls, Hawks, Kings

Teams who could create enough cap space if needed:

Warriors, Clippers, Pelicans, Spurs, Jazz

Lets first throw out Warriors, Clippers, and Jazz as they'd have to renounce their stars in order to get cap space(Curry, Durant, Paul, Griffin, Hayward, Hill)
I'd throw out Pelicans because they'd have to renounce Holiday and then spend that money on a back up center when they have no guards. Spurs would have to renounce Pau Gasol.

Celtics have the cap space and Len would actually fill a need. Boston more likely to chase bigger targets, but can't rule them out.
Nets could throw him an offer sheet if they strike out on their primary targets.
Mavs have their own RFA Center in Noel that they will be focused on instead.
Nuggets also have their own RFA C in Plumlee
Pacers have a younger, better C prospect in Turner
Lakers just spent 16 million on a 3rd string C, they'll want to save their money for stars.
Heat have whiteside and would have to renounce a few key role players
Wolves already resigned their own C from this draft class(dieng)
Knicks have Noah at 18/year and have younger cheaper options as well(porzingis, o'quinn, hernangomez)
Sixers need guards, they're trying to get rid of big men
Magic also need gaurds
Bulls have Robin Lopez, but Len might be an upgrade
Hawks have Dwight, may want to try and retain Millsap
Kings could be an option, but they already have too many young bigs that need minutes.

So you're right, there doesn't appear to be any obvious candidates who would go after Len, but teams always do surprising things. Celtics, Nets, Bulls, and Kings are the 4 most realistic teams I could see making Len an offer.

I have seen this post somewhere before. I will give the same response I did. There are 8 center prospect ahead of Len according to Hoopshype. Monroe, Mason Plumlee, Noel, Pachulia, Olynyk, Baynes, Bogut.

So. I cannot see Len getting a $15 million offer to be a backup center. If a team wants a starter, there are better options.

[JustWinBaby]

I'd give him a 2 year deal at 7 mill per

A sensible solution, count me in.

If he does not want it, adios.

[Mori Chu]

I think it'll take more like 11-12 million to even get negotiations started.

[TOO]

Nobody is getting a 23yo at worst back-up C at 7m per now. Too much money and not enough stars.

[Split T]

I have seen this post somewhere before. I will give the same response I did. There are 8 center prospect ahead of Len according to Hoopshype. Monroe, Mason Plumlee, Noel, Pachulia, Olynyk, Baynes, Bogut.

So. I cannot see Len getting a $15 million offer to be a backup center. If a team wants a starter, there are better options.

There are some problems with that list.

Monroe - Milwaukee has struggled to find the right role for him. He seems to be fitting in as a low post scorer off the bench, but his role will always be limited because he neither protects the rim or stretches the defense. It's hard to play a big man that doesn't do at least one of those. Still, I could see some teams valuing him more than Len.

Plumlee - I have no problem with him being rated higher than Len, but Denver just gave up Nurkic and a 1st rounder to get him. They will match anything and other teams know that.

Noel - Dallas also just traded for Noel and wouldn't have done so if they weren't planning on matching. Teams won't waste their time.

Pachulia - He's an old but reliable backup. No upside with him, he's a mid level or lower type salary player at this point.

Olynyk - Kind of in the same situation as Len, although they are different players. Olynyk stretches the floor, but doesn't protect the rim. Who's better? I don't know, but teams will rank them based on need. If a team needs a stretch 5, Olynyk will be rated higher. If they need defense and rebounding, Len will be ranked higher.

Baynes - He's 30 and he's not better than Len

Bogut - Same situation as Pachulia, he's better than Pachulia, but also has more health issues.

In short, If a team wants a young center with the potential to be a defensive/rebounding force, there is no better option in free agency than Len.

[Superbone]

I'd give him a 2 year deal at 7 mill per

A sensible solution, count me in.

If he does not want it, adios.

You guys are out of touch with the new CBA and NBA salaries. I guarantee you he gets much more than that.

[3rdside]

$12m is what I'm guessing and I'm totally okay with that


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[ShelC]

I'm still partial to keeping him at 12-15mil. It sucks but that's the going rate (or seems to be) for a backup big. He's serviceable, he's our own, and he's still only 23 (24 in June). We know bigs take longer to develop and teams often give up on them too early. Plus, I still don't think we've done a great job of developing him and giving him consistent run. He needs to figure out who and what he is in the league.

[Split T]

One thing I'll say is Len better start producing during these last 23 games. If Williams continues to out play him, there would not really be any reason to bring him back.

[O_Gardino]

A few of you keep saying that Williams is outperforming Len, but I don't see it. I see Williams excelling in a very limited role and Len getting by in a much bigger one.

Williams is asked to set screens, rebound, and score on putbacks. And he's doing a very good job of those things, especially offensive rebounding. He's exceptional in that category.

Len is asked to do all of those things, and does a good job. His fg% around the basket is quite a bit higher than Williams'. His defensive rb% is about the same. He sets good screens and moves well after the screen. Plus, Watson asks Len to pass out of the high post, shoot midrange jumpers, back down other centers, make decisions with the ball, etc. He struggles with that part of the game. In fact, Len is often asked to be the # 2 or 3 guy on offense with the second unit, and he's just not good in that situation.

In my opinion, we are asking too much of Len, and just enough of Williams. Williams is good in his role, and I'm glad to have him playing it. Len is not good when we isolate him with the ball at 10 or 15 feet out. We should be looking at how he plays off the ball, how he moves on D, can he catch and shoot when he is open, and how well other guys play with him on the court.

[Split T]

A few of you keep saying that Williams is outperforming Len, but I don't see it. I see Williams excelling in a very limited role and Len getting by in a much bigger one.

Williams is asked to set screens, rebound, and score on putbacks. And he's doing a very good job of those things, especially offensive rebounding. He's exceptional in that category.

Len is asked to do all of those things, and does a good job. His fg% around the basket is quite a bit higher than Williams'. His defensive rb% is about the same. He sets good screens and moves well after the screen. Plus, Watson asks Len to pass out of the high post, shoot midrange jumpers, back down other centers, make decisions with the ball, etc. He struggles with that part of the game. In fact, Len is often asked to be the # 2 or 3 guy on offense with the second unit, and he's just not good in that situation.

In my opinion, we are asking too much of Len, and just enough of Williams. Williams is good in his role, and I'm glad to have him playing it. Len is not good when we isolate him with the ball at 10 or 15 feet out. We should be looking at how he plays off the ball, how he moves on D, can he catch and shoot when he is open, and how well other guys play with him on the court.

It's obviously a very small sample size, but in the two games since the all star break, Williams has been significantly more productive. He had 17 points, 15 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block on 7/13 shooting against Milwaukee. Len had 6 points, 9 rebounds, 0 assists, 2 steals, and 0 blocks on 2/7 shooting. Against the bulls, Len was 4 points, 7 boards, 1 assist, 0 steals, and 2 blocks on 2/6 shooting. Williams was 16 points, 3 boards, 1 assist, 0 steals and blocks on 8/9 shooting. If Len wants to get paid, he's got to take advantage of these last 23 games. They can't continue to go like the last two.