carey wrote:28FTs is a very small sample. That's 2 games for Westbrook or James Harden.
Statistically, it's significant. If a .750 shooter has 28 attempts, the odds of making 12 or fewer are about 1 in 3000. Even a .700 shooter would only do it about one time in 400. So it's unlikely that it's a statistical fluke. The evidence suggests he's a legitimately bad FT shooter.
That doesn't mean it's a skill that can't be improved, just that he has a way to go.
28 attempts may be one game for Westbrook or Harden, but has either of them ever gone 12-28? Has anybody ever had a stretch like that who is not a terrible free throw shooter? Let me know if you can find one.
EDC wrote:Well hopefully Ulis, TJ and Bender all spend some quality time working on their 3pt shot this offseason.
Free throws too, for Dragan. I know it's a small number of attempts, but 3-10 shouldn't happen.
ETA: Actually, we're not talking about a really small sample. He was 2-4 in preseason, 6-12 in summer league, and 1-2 in Euroleague. Add it all up and it's 12-28. That's a real problem. He's a legitimately terrible FT shooter, and that's a bad sign.
I was at the Summer League game where he was fouled on a shot attempt and went to the line and only needed to make one to win the game. He clanked both. That was the game that went to overtime and Ulis hit the game winner at the buzzer.
I, of course, gave it a try. I couldn't find any examples of anyone having a game or season like that while otherwise being at least a mediocre free throw shooter.
Closest I could find was Rajon Rondo. He had one season, 2014-15, when he shot 12-36 (.333) with Boston, and 31-78 (.397) overall, in the middle of a career when he was otherwise around .600.
Also interesting is the career trajectory of Clint Capela:
carey wrote:28FTs is a very small sample. That's 2 games for Westbrook or James Harden.
Statistically, it's significant. If a .750 shooter has 28 attempts, the odds of making 12 or fewer are about 1 in 3000. Even a .700 shooter would only do it about one time in 400. So it's unlikely that it's a statistical fluke. The evidence suggests he's a legitimately bad FT shooter.
That doesn't mean it's a skill that can't be improved, just that he has a way to go.
28 attempts may be one game for Westbrook or Harden, but has either of them ever gone 12-28? Has anybody ever had a stretch like that who is not a terrible free throw shooter? Let me know if you can find one.
I found a 3 game stretch where iverson went 16/29. Not 12/28 bad, but I'll keep looking.
Barkley went 14/29 in his first two games in the 93/94 season for us. He was just barely a 70% ft shooter though.
I found an 11/28 stretch for Patrick Ewing, he was also just barely a 70% shooter as well
EDC wrote:Well hopefully Ulis, TJ and Bender all spend some quality time working on their 3pt shot this offseason.
Free throws too, for Dragan. I know it's a small number of attempts, but 3-10 shouldn't happen.
ETA: Actually, we're not talking about a really small sample. He was 2-4 in preseason, 6-12 in summer league, and 1-2 in Euroleague. Add it all up and it's 12-28. That's a real problem. He's a legitimately terrible FT shooter, and that's a bad sign.
To me, Bender looks like he just needs confidence and comfort out on the court. It has been a couple of years since he saw regualr game action, and I wonder how comfortable he is with his own size, and with the pressure of a real game.
He still has a lot to prove (well, he has everything to prove), but I believe he has the physical and mental tools to be a very good NBA player. He just needs to find his cajones.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan
carey wrote:I still think Bender is going to be great. His shot is so pretty and it's a quick trigger. As he develops strength he will get better and better. What he really needed was the same opportunity Chriss got to just PLAY. But apparently Watson thinks Chriss can be the best PF of all time and well, not so much for Bender.
+1000
Bender has not been developed with half the effort and minutes devoted to Chriss. Sometimes even looks intentional to showcase Chriss as the next big thing while Bender is sent backstage.
carey wrote:28FTs is a very small sample. That's 2 games for Westbrook or James Harden.
Statistically, it's significant. If a .750 shooter has 28 attempts, the odds of making 12 or fewer are about 1 in 3000. Even a .700 shooter would only do it about one time in 400. So it's unlikely that it's a statistical fluke. The evidence suggests he's a legitimately bad FT shooter.
That doesn't mean it's a skill that can't be improved, just that he has a way to go.
28 attempts may be one game for Westbrook or Harden, but has either of them ever gone 12-28? Has anybody ever had a stretch like that who is not a terrible free throw shooter? Let me know if you can find one.
I found a 3 game stretch where iverson went 16/29. Not 12/28 bad, but I'll keep looking.
Barkley went 14/29 in his first two games in the 93/94 season for us. He was just barely a 70% ft shooter though.
I found an 11/28 stretch for Patrick Ewing, he was also just barely a 70% shooter as well
Jerry West went 15/30 in a game once.
David Robinson went 6/18 in a game once.
Nice work!
Remember Chocolate Thunder? He shot 8-24 FT as a 19-year-old rookie. By his third season he was hitting .709. Not that I think he and Dragan have much in common.
You know whose rookie year had a similar statistical profile to Dragan? Kris Humphries. http://bkref.com/tiny/bYVm0
Cap wrote:Remember Chocolate Thunder? He shot 8-24 FT as a 19-year-old rookie. By his third season he was hitting .709. Not that I think he and Dragan have much in common.
Really? You don't see Dragan giving crazy names to his dunks in a couple years?
Cap wrote:Remember Chocolate Thunder? He shot 8-24 FT as a 19-year-old rookie. By his third season he was hitting .709. Not that I think he and Dragan have much in common.
Really? You don't see Dragan giving crazy names to his dunks in a couple years?
He needs to work on his vertical leap and strength.
"When we all think alike, nobody is thinking" - Walter Lippmann "Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them." ~ Frederick Douglass
Cap wrote:Remember Chocolate Thunder? He shot 8-24 FT as a 19-year-old rookie. By his third season he was hitting .709. Not that I think he and Dragan have much in common.
Really? You don't see Dragan giving crazy names to his dunks in a couple years?
He needs to work on his vertical leap and strength.
EDC wrote:Well hopefully Ulis, TJ and Bender all spend some quality time working on their 3pt shot this offseason.
Free throws too, for Dragan. I know it's a small number of attempts, but 3-10 shouldn't happen.
ETA: Actually, we're not talking about a really small sample. He was 2-4 in preseason, 6-12 in summer league, and 1-2 in Euroleague. Add it all up and it's 12-28. That's a real problem. He's a legitimately terrible FT shooter, and that's a bad sign.
And let's be real here. Bender's rookie season is basically a lost season. For the vast majority of young players, you can easily poke holes in their games from their rookie season, especially one that was derailed by bone spurs. Has Bender justified his 4th place pick in his rookie year? No. Was anyone expecting him to? I'd like to think none of us were that unrealistic. So it's a bit odd for me that anyone can look at this sample of statistics and start declaring bust already. Let's at least give him the same patience we gave to Len and judge him after a couple of years.
Totally agree with Bone on Ulis' shot. That is a very flat shot. Feels like he needs to get stronger to launch shots through contact and also to truly master that NBA 3.
I know. For the record, I'm cautiously optimistic on Bender. His defensive versatility is what excites me most. I hope that we allow him into an 18-24 mpg backup role next year and have actual consistency so he can truly find his offensive niche and build on top of it. I am not down on him due to the poor statistics this year.
pickle wrote:Has Bender justified his 4th place pick in his rookie year? No. Was anyone expecting him to? I'd like to think none of us were that unrealistic
I didn't think they were going to give him so few minutes honestly. I thought he would average 25 min a game. I was way, way wrong. I'm not down with drafting a guy at 4 and playing him 12 minutes per game.
The way we were always harping on the playoffs in the start of the season, there was no way we would be giving him 25 mpg. That's why I think his season was derailed by the injury. Had he been able to play after the ASG, he would've gotten far more exposure. But 25 mpg was always unrealistic in my opinion.
I figured him for about 15 minutes a game. Same with Chriss. One ended up with less, one more. But Bender's total number of minutes was somewhat disappointing.
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Bender is now 28-94 (.298) from three-point range, and 3-10 from the line. His 2p% is also not very exciting, at .482. He looks good when he shoots, but the results aren't good.
Cap wrote:Bender is now 28-94 (.298) from three-point range, and 3-10 from the line. His 2p% is also not very exciting, at .482. He looks good when he shoots, but the results aren't good.
If he played 70 games this year, and played 12 mpg, and had those percentages I would be more worried. But he is the youngest guy in the league and was jerked around on his minutes. Let's see what a consistent role does for him before we call him a bust. Remember how bad Chriss looked early on before he had consistent minutes?
