Suns pursuing free agent Blake Griffin

[Split T]

And for the record, I'm ok if we decide to pass on Griffin and just keep building on our youth. I still think we need to make some kind of move at some point. I don't see Bledsoe/Booker/Jackson/Bender/Chriss ever being a contender without another piece. And that piece needs to be a star.

I think the hope is a 2 of Jackson/Booker/Chriss become the star and then you add to that. Chasing stars is what you do when you already have one or 2.

I can see Booker/Jackson/Chriss becoming the 2nd/3rd/4th best players on a contender, but I think we still need that #1.

If Booker becomes at least average on defense and becomes a highly efficient shooter, could he be #1? Maybe. He'd have to become a 25+ point scorer on something like .48/.40/.85 shooting splits and add 5-7 assist game.

Jackson is the biggest unknown. Could he follow the Butler/Kawhi development plan? It's possible. If he becomes a good shooter and not just an average shooter, he could maybe be a 24/8/6 guy with 2 steals and 1 block and shoot .46/.38/.75 Is that good enough to be your best player?

I don't anticipate Chriss ever being a #1. He'll always be too reliant on others to create for him. I think he's got quite a bit of potential defensively, admittedly he's got a long ways to go, but he moves really well and has shown a knack for being a good help defender, blocking shots and getting steals. If he becomes a reliable 3 pt threat and at least moves the ball on offense, his athleticism will make him a good offensive player. I'm thinking 20 points, 8 boards, 2 blocks, 2 steals, 2 assists potential with good shooting splits, .50/.38/.75

For the record, these are not what I expect from these guys, but what we'd need them to become if we don't add another star.

[Split T]

There is a lot of talent with a starting 5 of:
Bledsoe
Booker
Jackson
Griffin
Chriss/Bender/Williams?

But would else would be shooting the 3's outside of Booker and maybe Chriss? Would this team be able to work well when the game slows down?

We just have a bunch of decent 3 pt shooters. It would be really helpful if one of them became great.

Just listened to the Zach Lowe podcast and while he didn't spend much time on Griffin to Phoenix, him and Kevin arnovitz fully expect Griffin to continue to expand his range and become a good 3 pt shooter.

[TOO]

I've talked myself into indifference on signing Griffin. We're gonna have to sign someone eventually, and it's not gonna be a mega star because that KD thing was an outlier and I don't see anyone of that magnitude becoming available any time soon. Cousins next year? If we dont sign Griffin, he's 100% the target next year. AD might be available one day, but who knows.

[djy2j]

There is a lot of talent with a starting 5 of:
Bledsoe
Booker
Jackson
Griffin
Chriss/Bender/Williams?

But would else would be shooting the 3's outside of Booker and maybe Chriss? Would this team be able to work well when the game slows down?

I think Blake can improve his 3ball. He's got a good stroke already. I think his range increases over time. He shot 33% last year from deep. I think he has a better touch than Bledsoe who also shot 33%.

[In2ition]

I've heard that even if Blake signs with Phoenix and you don't think he works out, his trade value will stay high. It's possible that you could flip him for a Porzingis if you like, since Dolan still owns the Knicks.

[Indy]

I'm at the point where my only real concern with Griffin is the health. If we sign him and he can't stay healthy we would lose some roster flexibility going forward.

I'm not concerned about Bender and Chriss getting stuck on the bench. It could happen if we're dumb and play Dudley/Chandler ahead of them, but it doesn't have to happen. There will be plenty of minutes to go around.

As for the salary situation. If we sign Blake to a max deal at 30 million a year, we'd have about 100 million committed for next off season. We could still be a little under the cap and could probably pretty easily move Dudley or Chandler before then to free up more space. In 2019, if we don't sign anyone in 2018, we would have about 70 million committed. Would go up to 80-85 if we re-signed TJ the previous year. With Bledsoe's cap hold we'd be at 105, so we'd have to renounce him to offer any max deals out, but it would be possible. 2020 gets tricky as we don't actually have any money committed for that year yet.

My point is, even with signing Griffin to the max, we'd still have some wiggle room to add more pieces.

This is where I am too. Griffin has never played huge minutes. He tops out around 34/35, and that will likely start going down a little. We likely won't play a traditional 4 and 5 lineup, but more two combo 4/5 guys. We still have 25 mpg for Chriss and Bender, while still giving Alan 10-15 (which is perfect for him).

[carey]

And for the record, I'm ok if we decide to pass on Griffin and just keep building on our youth. I still think we need to make some kind of move at some point. I don't see Bledsoe/Booker/Jackson/Bender/Chriss ever being a contender without another piece. And that piece needs to be a star.

How could anyone possibly know that at this point, Split? Booker is going into year 3. Bender & Chriss are only in year 2. Jackson hasn't played a single game. For all we know this could be the next great NBA team. Sure it is unlikely because of sheer probability but saying anything definitive about their collective ceiling this early in the process is hard for me to get behind. It is kind of why I would rather hold off on Griffin. Wait to see who breaks out & see what we actually need before we break the bank & totally box ourselves in cap wise.

[Aztec Sunsfan]

This is an interesting discusión, plenty of valid points on both sides.
My two cents:

+ I would say that if you can bring a Star-or-better on his prime without sacrificing assets, you have to take a deep look into it.

+ I don't care for the Warriors' window of dominance, every game still have to be played, as the Cavs coming back from 1-3 two years ago showed us all, and our own history full of "what if".

+ Last year we mismanaged our developing in favor of guys like Dudley and Tucker, at least we could do it for a superior talent that is actually a part of our core.

- I earlier said that getting Blake would probably signals Bledsoe staying as well, not my taste, but hopefully we can live with that.

+ If our medical staff says "Go ahead", I would pull the trigger. How good is LAC's medical staff?

- Future Cap flexibility. This is not on Griffin, but on fixing the Knight situation, and eventually finding a new home for Dudley.

+ I would like to keep Chandler as long as he wants, out of respect,, would send a strong signal around the league, after years of mismanaging the exit of previous Veterans that no longer fit our plan. Same for Dudley, Barbosa already acknowledged this posibility, by signing a partial year.

- Concede the Len's failure. People likes to point out to Robin Lopez as living proof on waiting for the blossoming to happen, but I think he is solid, but nothing to write home about. Jermaine O' Neal would be better example, but still, how long are we going to keep this guy on a scholarship? If he wants to split the risk, signing a 2-year offer around 7-8 per year, then we talk, but most likely, he is going to get a ridicoulus offer, and I don't want us to match it. Specially considering that keeping Len marks Williams likely exit, and I like the guy, someone who truly had earned a new contract. Granted that their potential is diferent, but I prefer the bench guy always fighting for overachieving, than a lottery pick wasting four years on a comfort zone.

+Let's roll with a Blake (32) plus Chandler (24) frontcourt, and get the kids battling for the rest, there is a healthy 40 minutes bag up for grabs between Chriss, Bender, Williams and maybe Warren. But I don't want it splitted in four 10 minutes lots, I want them to battle for a clear First Big from the bench role, that would earn him 15-20minutes, then another slot for some 10-15 of "guaranteed" action, and then we have some scraps for one out the two remaining kids, set a totem system and make them fight their way up. And this would be another reason to let Alex go.

[Hermen]

Griffin's shooting has improved immeasurably. He has made himself a very good midrange shooter just like Amare did.

Luckily, we have ways of measuring shooting improvement Courtesy of basketball-reference.
- He took a lot more threes this year than ever before (.116 of all his shots, up from 0.036 career average) and he's shooting 33.6% from three. It's something, but still low volume and below-average percentage.
- He was good at long 2s this year, making 43% of shots between 16ft and the 3pt line, which is 3% above average. He took a lot of them though, 28% of his shots, which is not ideal I'd say. Threes are better even at his percentage.
- He was bad 10-16 feet from the rim, only 32%.sc
- He's very good at the rim (duh)
I concede that my feeling was wrong (maybe because I find his shooting form ugly ). He's solid from mid-range, and if he can move some of his long 2s to 3s (and some of the accuracy), that'd be awesome. So I guess I don't know what I'd do. I still don't like the fit with Bledsoe.

[Split T]

And for the record, I'm ok if we decide to pass on Griffin and just keep building on our youth. I still think we need to make some kind of move at some point. I don't see Bledsoe/Booker/Jackson/Bender/Chriss ever being a contender without another piece. And that piece needs to be a star.

How could anyone possibly know that at this point, Split? Booker is going into year 3. Bender & Chriss are only in year 2. Jackson hasn't played a single game. For all we know this could be the next great NBA team. Sure it is unlikely because of sheer probability but saying anything definitive about their collective ceiling this early in the process is hard for me to get behind. It is kind of why I would rather hold off on Griffin. Wait to see who breaks out & see what we actually need before we break the bank & totally box ourselves in cap wise.

You're right, we don't know how they'll turn out, just guesses. I didn't mean for it to be a definitive statement, more just my opinion. Although, I still don't think adding Griffin takes anything away from our young core. It makes us better so we get a worse pick, but we've got plenty of young talent right now. It does limit our ability to sign other free agents, but we would still maintain enough cap flexibility that I think we could add anyone else who comes available. Zach Lowe made a good point on his podcast today. It's more important to be good than have cap space. Houston didn't have space but CP3 wanted to go there and they made it work. If we're a good team in two years and John Wall wants to come play here, we'll make it work.

[Split T]

Another question, is Blake's interest legit or is he just trying to get LA to offer 5/175? Maybe a little of both, maybe it's us at 4/130 or 5/175 to LA if they offer. Although I'd much rather do 3/95.

[wpmiller42]

Yeah, I'm not too high on Griffin and just think it's not the right time to have a guy like him on the team. I'd much rather go for someone like Iguodala who has the championship experience and accolades to lead young guys, and gets after it defensively. At this point, I think it's more important to build a defensive mindset/mentality than a "winning" one. Winning will come from making big stops at the end of games and keeping games close against stronger teams.

[Superbone]

Griffin's shooting has improved immeasurably. He has made himself a very good midrange shooter just like Amare did.

Luckily, we have ways of measuring shooting improvement Courtesy of basketball-reference.
- He took a lot more threes this year than ever before (.116 of all his shots, up from 0.036 career average) and he's shooting 33.6% from three. It's something, but still low volume and below-average percentage.
- He was good at long 2s this year, making 43% of shots between 16ft and the 3pt line, which is 3% above average. He took a lot of them though, 28% of his shots, which is not ideal I'd say. Threes are better even at his percentage.
- He was bad 10-16 feet from the rim, only 32%.sc
- He's very good at the rim (duh)
I concede that my feeling was wrong (maybe because I find his shooting form ugly ). He's solid from mid-range, and if he can move some of his long 2s to 3s (and some of the accuracy), that'd be awesome. So I guess I don't know what I'd do. I still don't like the fit with Bledsoe.

Thanks for putting it in real numbers.

[In2ition]

Griffin's shooting has improved immeasurably. He has made himself a very good midrange shooter just like Amare did.

Luckily, we have ways of measuring shooting improvement Courtesy of basketball-reference.
- He took a lot more threes this year than ever before (.116 of all his shots, up from 0.036 career average) and he's shooting 33.6% from three. It's something, but still low volume and below-average percentage.
- He was good at long 2s this year, making 43% of shots between 16ft and the 3pt line, which is 3% above average. He took a lot of them though, 28% of his shots, which is not ideal I'd say. Threes are better even at his percentage.
- He was bad 10-16 feet from the rim, only 32%.sc
- He's very good at the rim (duh)
I concede that my feeling was wrong (maybe because I find his shooting form ugly ). He's solid from mid-range, and if he can move some of his long 2s to 3s (and some of the accuracy), that'd be awesome. So I guess I don't know what I'd do. I still don't like the fit with Bledsoe.

I think he would fit in well with Bledsoe. Blake might be a better passer, they've played together in the past with success, and the offense needs more passers and ball movement, which would happen with Jackson and Griffin in the lineup.

[Mori Chu]

I have come around to wanting to sign Griffin if our training staff signs off on it. The guy is elite when healthy. He would give us our Amare replacement. He wants to play here. He's the kind of player you hate unless he's on your team. Our young team would be able to start getting that taste of winning that is so important. It would be fun to be back in the playoff picture. Like I said, if our training staff signs off on it and we can get it done, do it!

This is pretty much how I feel about it right now. I think if he checks out health-wise, we should try to get him. He's one of the best PFs in the league and would make our team much better right away.

[O_Gardino]

I can see Booker/Jackson/Chriss becoming the 2nd/3rd/4th best players on a contender, but I think we still need that #1.

If that's what you think, then why bring in the 2nd best player from a team that gets bumped in the first round?

[Split T]

I can see Booker/Jackson/Chriss becoming the 2nd/3rd/4th best players on a contender, but I think we still need that #1.

If that's what you think, then why bring in the 2nd best player from a team that gets bumped in the first round?

He's better than anyone on our team right now. And I'm not expecting us to contend right now, but he'll make us better and doesn't impact the growth of our young players and I think might give us a better chance to add another special talent.

[JCSunsfan]

I've heard that even if Blake signs with Phoenix and you don't think he works out, his trade value will stay high. It's possible that you could flip him for a Porzingis if you like, since Dolan still owns the Knicks.

Yep. He will have trade value, unless his body totally crumbles.

[JCSunsfan]

Another question, is Blake's interest legit or is he just trying to get LA to offer 5/175? Maybe a little of both, maybe it's us at 4/130 or 5/175 to LA if they offer. Although I'd much rather do 3/95.

I think its very legit. Blake is very high on the Suns' future and whats to be in on it from the beginning. He said so in an interview.

“I like to get in there a little early and stake my claim for the Mt. Rushmore and then when they blow up, it’s like hey, I was here from the beginning,” he added of picking Phoenix as a surprise member of his top NBA cities.

http://arizonasports.com/story/1153499/ ... ba-cities/

[iLLmatic]

And for the record, I'm ok if we decide to pass on Griffin and just keep building on our youth. I still think we need to make some kind of move at some point. I don't see Bledsoe/Booker/Jackson/Bender/Chriss ever being a contender without another piece. And that piece needs to be a star.

I think there is a decent chance Booker becomes a star. Then, maybe Jackson becomes a star. With Griffin, that could be a big 3. But development has to happen. The others need to be solid pieces. In order for this team to succeed, Bledsoe has to quit thinking of himself as a star and think of himself as a complementary player.

Call me a homer or premature but I already think Booker is a star. Give him a couple more years and he will be a superstar and likely the best 2 guard in the league.