Phx-Suns.Net

Shabazz wrote:John Hollinger studied this a while back and Interestingly enough, from a statistical perspective, a higher turnover rate from a rookie is actually a positive sign.

Whatever happened to that guy?

Shabazz wrote:John Hollinger studied this a while back and Interestingly enough, from a statistical perspective, a higher turnover rate from a rookie is actually a positive sign.

Can you please post that article? I'd like to read it.

O_Gardino wrote:

Shabazz wrote:John Hollinger studied this a while back and Interestingly enough, from a statistical perspective, a higher turnover rate from a rookie is actually a positive sign.

Whatever happened to that guy?

A quick google search reveals:

John Hollinger is the Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies of the National Basketball Association.

And here's his "farewell ESPN" piece back in December of 2012:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/PE ... ell-column

In2ition wrote:

Shabazz wrote:John Hollinger studied this a while back and Interestingly enough, from a statistical perspective, a higher turnover rate from a rookie is actually a positive sign.

Can you please post that article? I'd like to read it.

I was trying to find it, and the only thing I found was a small blurb on Westbrook from 2009, but I remember him writing more extensively about it.

Westbrook also is the youngest of the three, the best defender and the only one who had to change positions upon arriving in the NBA. All of which suggests he's only scratching the surface of his potential -- as does the fact that he has a higher turnover ratio than the other two, which, in a paradoxical twist of logic, is actually a good thing for a rookie. Historically, those with high turnover rates have had much higher rates of improvement in subsequent seasons.

http://www.espn.com/nba/columns/story?c ... ons-090107

specialsauce wrote:We know he’s great on D. His offensive development will determine if he becomes a forgettable defensive specialist (Tony Allen, Bruce Bowen, etc) or a star to build around

They could use a Tony Allen (in his heyday) tonight. Nobody is playing defense in the Pistons game.

Sorry Tony Allen was okay but nobody is picking a player fourth in the draft hoping he turns out to be Tony Allen. That would be a huge disappointment.

Exactly.

Nothing we couldn't see with our own eyes this summer...

http://arizonasports.com/story/1331153/ ... offseason/

“I think Marquese had a very good rookie year a year ago and showed a lot of progress throughout the year,” McDonough told Burns & Gambo Wednesday on 98.7 FM Arizona’s Sports Station. “I think this offseason, he got a little bit out of shape, and he realizes that and has recently started to get in much better shape — the weight’s come down.”

ShelC wrote:Nothing we couldn't see with our own eyes this summer...

http://arizonasports.com/story/1331153/ ... offseason/

“I think Marquese had a very good rookie year a year ago and showed a lot of progress throughout the year,” McDonough told Burns & Gambo Wednesday on 98.7 FM Arizona’s Sports Station. “I think this offseason, he got a little bit out of shape, and he realizes that and has recently started to get in much better shape — the weight’s come down.”

Yeah, no kidding.

I think it's obvious he doesn't have the fire in him that he'll need to become a great player.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2162 ... s-paul-nba

Labissiere is shooting 32 percent on post-ups, 54th among 58 players who have finished at least 20 such plays, per Synergy Sports. (The four guys below him: Wade, Marcus Smart, Russell Westbrook, and Alex Len.)

We've decreased Len's post attempts this year, but we should probably get rid of them all together

I know the Detroit loss is a bit disheartening. Blow out losses are. However:

Re Jackson. I would still pick him 4th if we did this draft over again. The only player that would give me pause is Markannen. But he might be a flash in the pan.
Bender. I think his development curve will continue upward.
Chriss. A little discouraged about him. He had a horrible off-season and has not recovered.
Booker. Nothing more to add.
TJ. I love this guy as a player. I think he will be a good trade piece to get us where we need to be. Jackson is our future at sf.
Len. Horse is out of the barn. He is improving, but our chances of resigning him are small.
Sauce. He would be making a difference right now.
Knight. Non-factor. There might be a slight chance he could play pg for us. Very slight.
Reed. I am probably being PollyAnna here, but I think he would be making a differenc.
Alec Peters. I would love to give him some burn while Chriss is getting his weight down.
Ulis. Great back up pg.
Mike James. Playing well. Yes. Everyone's scapegoat. Someone has to play pg.

This team is so young. It is going to be inconsistent.

Great take, JCSunsfan.

O_Gardino wrote:Great take, JCSunsfan.

Yeah, I agree with all of it. I wish Bender would learn to be a little more aggressive but I'm not sure if players ever develop that in time. Maybe with confidence it will start to come.

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2017 ... ew?ref=yfp
Phoenix Suns forward Marquese Chriss is well on his way to being considered one of the top power forwards in the National Basketball Association. The rest of the basketball universe, if they don’t know him before, will get to know him during the 2021 NBA Finals. This much we know.

i know nothing of the sort!
what i see in my crystal ball for 2021 is Chriss riding the pine somewhere other than phx

i'll admit that my actual prediction method is not perfect.
it's body language
perhaps Chriss did put on too much extra weight
i don't like the way he moves for a big man
i learned from suns' history with big men
that if they haven't got a degree of agility, of leg work
their huge mass is more of a hindrance than an asset
and if Chriss is having weight issues at age 20
it will more likely get worse than better
(remember Oliver Miller?)

the best example of suns bad body language was Tsakalidas
but there were many others here
West had the right big man body language imo
he couldn't shoot, but he was effective at his position
Shaq shuffled his feet well for his size

Len should be more agile, but also doesn't thrill me with his body language
i don't think he has the right instincts

Josh, on the other hand, is mistake prone, but i'm optimistic based on his body language and instincts.
if the suns can correct the mechanics of his jump shot, he'll be good to go

you don't need to check Booker's stats to know he's the real deal
you can see it in his body language the first time you watch him play
particularly in the way he elevates and balances out his body before his jump shot
then strokes it smooth
Jordan had it. Kobe had it
also, Reggie Miller and Curry, though a little less capable of creating their own shot

Part of the reason Chriss has put on weight and got out of shape is because they wanted him to put on some muscle. Well, he might have put on a little bit of muscle, but he put on a lot of fat while doing it.

So no, he's not a future Oliver Miller, but he also needs somebody to monitor his workouts and nutrition a little better to avoid this happening again. Ideally, that's Chriss himself, but if not, hire somebody to. It would be a good investment.

I hate Chriss as much as the next guy. But he and Bender (and Ulis, etc.) are still super super young. They left college after like 4 months on campus. They still need time to grow and develop.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:I hate Chriss as much as the next guy. But he and Bender (and Ulis, etc.) are still super super young. They left college after like 4 months on campus. They still need time to grow and develop.

Probably a good thing for all of us to remember. Chriss, Bender, Ulis, Jackson, and Booker all started this season at 19 or 20. Here's how some of the top players in the nba fared during their age 20 or later season.

Lebron James: 27/7/7 and shot .47/.35/.75
Kevin Durant: 25/6/3 and shot .47/.42/.86
Antetekounmpo: 13/7/3 and shot .49/.16/.74
James Harden: 10/3/2 and shot .40/.38/.81
Kawhi Leonard: 8/5/1 and shot .49/.37/.77
Anthony Davis: 21/10/2 and shot .52/.22/.79
DeMarcus Cousins: 14/8/2 and shot .43/.16/.69
Russell Westbrook: 15/5/5 and shot .40/.27/.81
Kyrie Irving: 22/4/6 and shot .47/.40/.87

Guys like Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Damian Lillard, Blake Griffin, Rudy Gobert and C.J McCollum were all still in college or overseas.

Butler put up 3/1/0 and shot .40/.18/.77 as a 22 year old
Draymond put up 3/3/1 and shot .33/.21/.82 as a 22 year old
Klay was 12/2/2 and shot .44/.41/.87 as a 21 year old
Rudy Gobert put up 2/3/0 and shot .49/.00/.49 as a 21 year old
Andre Iguoudala put up 9/6/3 and shot .49/.33/.74 as a 21 year old

Paul George: 8/4/1 and shot .45/.30/.76
Gordon Hayward: 5/2/1 and shot .49/.47/.71
DeMar Derozan: 8/3/1 and shot .50/.25/.76
Kyle Lowry: 6/3/3 and shot .37/.37/.89
Otto Porter Jr: 2/1/0 and shot .36/.19/.67
Gary Harris: 3/1/1 and shot .30/.20/.75
Jrue Holiday: 14/4/6 and shot .45/.37/.82

Booker: 22/3/3 and shot .42/.36/.83
Chriss: 6/5/1 and shooting .39/.32/.73
Bender: 6/4/1 and shooting .39/.37/.75
Jackson: 9/4/1 and shooting .39/.24/.52
Ulis: 7/2/4 and shot .42/.27/.78

I don't think we know how they're gonna end up yet. Booker looks to be on a good track, the other 4 are to be determined. But I think there is enough precedent for them to still turn into good players.

good job SplitT

i'll admit part of my frustration is that the last time i had regular access to suns broadcasts was the year before they lost Nash and they were still competitive
but i never missed a game before that
and there were many losing seasons
but the talent was never this watered down
offensively and defensively
and, of course, there were always rookies
(though they didn't get as much playing time as now)

i know Amare had the stuff right from the start
i don't recall Nash, Marion, or Majerly's rookie years

Nash barely played as a rookie, Marion had a very exciting rookie year, starting quite a few games and averaging 25 minutes. There were like 5 guys on that team who were or had been allstars, so he didn't have much responsibility, but you could see how good he was off the ball. He also had that injury that season. I'll add that Marion played 3 years in college, so he was the same age as Booker is now.

Thanks for the breakdown, SplitT.

That was a great post, Split T. Thanks a lot for that data gathering. Great perspective on how we should be patient with young players and rookies.