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Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:41 am
by n4th4n
It's almost like they are young and raw and need playtime to develop!
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:47 am
by AmareIsGod
n4th4n wrote:
It's almost like they are young and raw and need playtime to develop!
Worm doesn't bother actually watching anything, I'm learning. He clearly hasn't watched or noticed their play as of late. What their overall numbers show, including the beginning and most of the season, which lean towards negative numbers, exclude the positive we've seen lately.
But it's just Worm. Wouldn't expect anything more or anything less. The glass is ALWAYS half empty.
Edit: See cap's response below for examples of positive trends of late.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:00 pm
by Cap
Bender's raw +/- was -20.8 in November, -4.4 in December, and +2.5 in January so far. That's movement in the right direction. His RPM is still terrible because RPM counts November games just as much as recent ones.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:13 pm
by The Bobster
Players are coming into the league so young now that you have to be patient with them because they don't come into the league ready to play against established NBA players.
That being said, I think Chriss's development has be somewhat disappointing. With Bender we see flashes of what I think he'll become - a good defender, nice passer and complimentary scorer, but he hasn't shown any consistency to this point.
Bender, Chris, Jackson and Ulis are going to take time to develop. And some may never develop. But look at what happened with Len when the light finally went on. He went form inexperience young player who had rare games where he played well and had plenty of games where he frustrated us, to someone who contributes regularly and looks like he has a future in the league.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:26 pm
by jonh
AmareIsGod wrote:n4th4n wrote:
It's almost like they are young and raw and need playtime to develop!
Worm doesn't bother actually watching anything, I'm learning. He clearly hasn't watched or noticed their play as of late. What their overall numbers show, including the beginning and most of the season, which lean towards negative numbers, exclude the positive we've seen lately.
But it's just Worm. Wouldn't expect anything more or anything less. The glass is ALWAYS half empty.
Edit: See cap's response below for examples of positive trends of late.
I think Worm has a valid point--there is a reason why the team in the bottom 1/3 of the league, record-wise. In fact, I would argue that most NBA fans would side with him right now in evaluating both players.
But it is hard to deny that both players have made several strides over the past month, both analytically and using the eye-test. And that is (finally) encouraging.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:34 pm
by Nodack
I don’t like talk of trading the young guys because they aren’t performing up to expectations. Drafting a player and then giving up on them so early is not smart. It just shows no patience. I’m glad those people don’t run the team. We would replace the whole team every year and would never get anywhere imo.
The reason we are in the bottom third in the league is because we are a young rebuilding team. We intentionally lost games last year. We started out horrible this year. IMO the team has improved quite a bit over the season. I feel we have gone from worst to middle of the pack in a half a season.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:35 pm
by AmareIsGod
jonh wrote:AmareIsGod wrote:n4th4n wrote:
It's almost like they are young and raw and need playtime to develop!
Worm doesn't bother actually watching anything, I'm learning. He clearly hasn't watched or noticed their play as of late. What their overall numbers show, including the beginning and most of the season, which lean towards negative numbers, exclude the positive we've seen lately.
But it's just Worm. Wouldn't expect anything more or anything less. The glass is ALWAYS half empty.
Edit: See cap's response below for examples of positive trends of late.
I think Worm has a valid point--there is a reason why the team in the bottom 1/3 of the league, record-wise. In fact, I would argue that most NBA fans would side with him right now in evaluating both players.
But it is hard to deny that both players have made several strides over the past month, both analytically and using the eye-test. And that is (finally) encouraging.
Worm has a valid point but it's completely devoid of any recent trends or observations.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:35 pm
by Split T
I'd love to see all those numbers taking out the first three games. Our team point differential is -6.4 for the season, but that goes to -4.5 if you take out the Watson games. My guess is those games are skewing the stats a bit. When you've been outscored by 250 points on the season and almost 100 of those came in just two games, those games will have a huge impact.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:48 pm
by Ring_Wanted
AmareIsGod wrote:... recent trends or observations.
Recent trends are nice but it remains true that those players are just starting to come up from veeery low.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:00 pm
by O_Gardino
AmareIsGod wrote:jonh wrote:AmareIsGod wrote:n4th4n wrote:
It's almost like they are young and raw and need playtime to develop!
Worm doesn't bother actually watching anything, I'm learning. He clearly hasn't watched or noticed their play as of late. What their overall numbers show, including the beginning and most of the season, which lean towards negative numbers, exclude the positive we've seen lately.
But it's just Worm. Wouldn't expect anything more or anything less. The glass is ALWAYS half empty.
Edit: See cap's response below for examples of positive trends of late.
I think Worm has a valid point--there is a reason why the team in the bottom 1/3 of the league, record-wise. In fact, I would argue that most NBA fans would side with him right now in evaluating both players.
But it is hard to deny that both players have made several strides over the past month, both analytically and using the eye-test. And that is (finally) encouraging.
Worm has a valid point but it's completely devoid of any recent trends or observations.
Worm made a valid observation that Bender and Chriss aren't playing very well this season. His
point is that we should play a d-league rookie because "He can't be much worse". I don't consider a suggestion to get not-much-worse to be a valid point.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:02 pm
by Wormwood
We're giving both Dragan and Bender plenty of minutes. Worth noting is that the Suns have had one of the easiest schedules so far this year, and have the toughest schedule in the NBA for the rest of the season, based on winning percentages.
Stop for a minute though, and consider how well they are doing in comparison with other Loot picks from 2016.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/dr ... _2016.html
In terms of win shares per 48 of lotto picks in 2016, Bender is last, and Chriss is 9th of 13 (he beat out Bender, so the numbers a little worse than it looks at first glance)
Will they get better? Yeah, probably. Are either of them going to be all stars? No. Solid starters? Odds appear against it. Players this bad rarely turn out great. Although Goran Dragic did turn around a disastrous rookie season, he was showing more signs of being a good player by year two than Chriss or Bender were in their second seasons now. Offensively, Chriss has regressed a bit statistically.
My point being: neither measures out as a good player right now. They're showing a bit more life, but neither looks good in comparison with other rookies from the 2016 class.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:13 pm
by Split T
Wormwood wrote:We're giving both Dragan and Bender plenty of minutes. Worth noting is that the Suns have had one of the easiest schedules so far this year, and have the toughest schedule in the NBA for the rest of the season, based on winning percentages.
Stop for a minute though, and consider how well they are doing in comparison with other Loot picks from 2016.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/dr ... _2016.html
In terms of win shares per 48 of lotto picks in 2016, Bender is last, and Chriss is 9th of 13 (he beat out Bender, so the numbers a little worse than it looks at first glance)
Will they get better? Yeah, probably. Are either of them going to be all stars? No. Solid starters? Odds appear against it. Players this bad rarely turn out great. Although Goran Dragic did turn around a disastrous rookie season, he was showing more signs of being a good player by year two than Chriss or Bender were in their second seasons now. Offensively, Chriss has regressed a bit statistically.
My point being: neither measures out as a good player right now. They're showing a bit more life, but neither looks good in comparison with other rookies from the 2016 class.
If you use VORP or BPM Chriss jumps up to 4th. Behind Simmons, Dunn, and Poeltl.
I won't argue that they haven't been good. They've definitely struggled, but both have shown very recent signs of improvement. Chriss because he's probably in shape and Bender's shot is looking very good.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:16 pm
by ShelC
We're giving both Dragan and Bender plenty of minutes.
One would hope so. Might get messy otherwise.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:20 pm
by Split T
I think it's important to remember that young players almost always look bad in advanced stats. Chriss has a higher RPM than Markkanen, but you'd be crazy to think Markkanen's poor RPM is a reason to bench him. Its obvious he's great prospect.
Likewise, I think Chriss and Bender have both shown enough flashes of potential to keep giving them playing time. It's definitely not time to bench them in favor of a 4 year college player drafted in the late 2nd round.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:22 pm
by O_Gardino
ShelC wrote:We're giving both Dragan and Bender plenty of minutes.
One would hope so. Might get messy otherwise.
10/10 I actually laughed out loud at work.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:25 pm
by Superbone
Cap wrote:
Bender's raw +/- was -20.8 in November, -4.4 in December, and +2.5 in January so far. That's movement in the right direction. His RPM is still terrible because RPM counts November games just as much as recent ones.
Thank you.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:27 pm
by Superbone
Nodack wrote:I don’t like talk of trading the young guys because they aren’t performing up to expectations. Drafting a player and then giving up on them so early is not smart. It just shows no patience. I’m glad those people don’t run the team. We would replace the whole team every year and would never get anywhere imo.
The reason we are in the bottom third in the league is because we are a young rebuilding team. We intentionally lost games last year. We started out horrible this year. IMO the team has improved quite a bit over the season. I feel we have gone from worst to middle of the pack in a half a season.
From the start of the season until now is pretty freaking unbelievable.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:27 pm
by Superbone
AmareIsGod wrote:jonh wrote:AmareIsGod wrote:n4th4n wrote:
It's almost like they are young and raw and need playtime to develop!
Worm doesn't bother actually watching anything, I'm learning. He clearly hasn't watched or noticed their play as of late. What their overall numbers show, including the beginning and most of the season, which lean towards negative numbers, exclude the positive we've seen lately.
But it's just Worm. Wouldn't expect anything more or anything less. The glass is ALWAYS half empty.
Edit: See cap's response below for examples of positive trends of late.
I think Worm has a valid point--there is a reason why the team in the bottom 1/3 of the league, record-wise. In fact, I would argue that most NBA fans would side with him right now in evaluating both players.
But it is hard to deny that both players have made several strides over the past month, both analytically and using the eye-test. And that is (finally) encouraging.
Worm has a valid point but it's completely devoid of any recent trends or observations.
Precisely.
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:29 pm
by Superbone
ShelC wrote:We're giving both Dragan and Bender plenty of minutes.
One would hope so. Might get messy otherwise.
Yeah, I don't want to see mismatched minutes here!
Re: Suns News: Week 13 1/8-1/14
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:55 pm
by Cap
At the same time, I'm aware that we're dealing with small data samples, so there's a lot of noise in that trend line.
But if you want to have fun extrapolating trends from small samples, his last five games are -18, -4, -9, -1, +19, which means his recent rate of improvement is even faster than the month-by-month numbers suggest! At this rate he'll be putting up +100's in a few weeks.