Game Day: Nuggets (29-26) @ Suns (18-38), Sat 2/10/18

[Mori Chu]

What a perfect game. Payton looked great, lots of guys had big numbers, ... and we still got the desired L. Really happy with this one. Don't expect these kind of gaudy numbers from Payton every game, but that's a really impressive debut for the new guy. Hooray!

[djy2j]

Nice first game by the Elf. I’m sure the team was caught off guard by having a guard that can facilitate. Looking forward to him making Booker and Warrens game easier.

I’m good on Josh Gray. Next GLeague PG in the line please.

How Daniels wasn’t offloaded for even a conditional 2nd rounder is beyond me. No point of him playing in this team right now unless it is to cage fight the other teams best player each time.

Need to see more of Reed to see if he sucks or not. He’s got an NBA body so need to see if he has any skills.

I love Dudley as a person but yeah 10 mil for what he brings is absurd. Money not hindering the franchise currently but just shows what bad decisions they are still capable of.
Anyone know when Williams is supposed to return?

[specialsauce]

I like this kid so far!

https://twitter.com/Suns/status/962558502441926657

Well spoken

[specialsauce]

https://twitter.com/sbordow/status/962766836780580864

That’s even with leaving about 4 ppg out there. Dude has all the talent, only thing holding him back is his own brain.

[Superbone]

That’s even with leaving about 4 ppg out there. Dude has all the talent, only thing holding him back is his own brain.

I think his brain had a big leap in development 6 games ago. Seriously, I've heard that the human brain doesn't finish developing until age 25. Some synapses definitely connected recently.

[Cap]

Looks like Payton-Booker-Jackson-Warren-Bender might be a legitimate NBA lineup. And we wouldn't have said that about Jackson and Bender as recently as a few weeks ago.

[Split T]

That’s even with leaving about 4 ppg out there. Dude has all the talent, only thing holding him back is his own brain.

I think his brain had a big leap in development 6 games ago. Seriously, I've heard that the human brain doesn't finish developing until age 25. Some synapses definitely connected recently.

Right about the time Daniels called him out to the media. Maybe specialsauce got a message to him as well.

[Split T]

Looks like Payton-Booker-Jackson-Warren-Bender might be a legitimate NBA lineup. And we wouldn't have said that about Jackson and Bender as recently as a few weeks ago.

Was just thinking that. They'll get torched on defense but that lineup has the makings of an excellent offense.

[Mori Chu]

How Daniels wasn’t offloaded for even a conditional 2nd rounder is beyond me. No point of him playing in this team right now unless it is to cage fight the other teams best player each time.

Why is everybody so down on Daniels? He's averaging about 8.5 ppg on 40% 3pt shooting in 19 min/game. Not exceptional, but that 3pt% is quite good, especially on a team like this that is so starved for good shooting. We just got a PG who can actually somewhat run an offense, which may start opening up more clean looks and good shots for Daniels. If anything, I would expect his play to improve as we close out the season. He's only 26 years old and is on a cheap contract. I acknowledge he's no Kobe Bryant or whatever. But what exactly is so horrible about him, especially given that we are literally signing guys off the street to 10-day contracts to otherwise fill out our guard rotation? Why do so many folks here bag on Daniels when we have so many other worse players on the roster?

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/248 ... oy-daniels

[Wally_West]

Very impressed by Quailman. Doug Funnie would be proud.

[Superbone]

How Daniels wasn’t offloaded for even a conditional 2nd rounder is beyond me. No point of him playing in this team right now unless it is to cage fight the other teams best player each time.

Why is everybody so down on Daniels? He's averaging about 8.5 ppg on 40% 3pt shooting in 19 min/game. Not exceptional, but that 3pt% is quite good, especially on a team like this that is so starved for good shooting. We just got a PG who can actually somewhat run an offense, which may start opening up more clean looks and good shots for Daniels. If anything, I would expect his play to improve as we close out the season. He's only 26 years old and is on a cheap contract. I acknowledge he's no Kobe Bryant or whatever. But what exactly is so horrible about him, especially given that we are literally signing guys off the street to 10-day contracts to otherwise fill out our guard rotation? Why do so many folks here bag on Daniels when we have so many other worse players on the roster?

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/248 ... oy-daniels

I don't get it either. He's a great shooter to come in off the bench. Why in the world would you want to dump him?

[Cap]

How Daniels wasn’t offloaded for even a conditional 2nd rounder is beyond me. No point of him playing in this team right now unless it is to cage fight the other teams best player each time.

Why is everybody so down on Daniels? He's averaging about 8.5 ppg on 40% 3pt shooting in 19 min/game. Not exceptional, but that 3pt% is quite good, especially on a team like this that is so starved for good shooting. We just got a PG who can actually somewhat run an offense, which may start opening up more clean looks and good shots for Daniels. If anything, I would expect his play to improve as we close out the season. He's only 26 years old and is on a cheap contract. I acknowledge he's no Kobe Bryant or whatever. But what exactly is so horrible about him, especially given that we are literally signing guys off the street to 10-day contracts to otherwise fill out our guard rotation? Why do so many folks here bag on Daniels when we have so many other worse players on the roster?

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/248 ... oy-daniels

I don't get it either. He's a great shooter to come in off the bench. Why in the world would you want to dump him?

Given his particular skillset he'd be a great fit at the end of the bench for a playoff team, but if he's happier here (where he actually gets to play) and nobody's willing to give us more than a conditional second rounder for him, we might as well keep him. We do have use for him.

[specialsauce]

How Daniels wasn’t offloaded for even a conditional 2nd rounder is beyond me. No point of him playing in this team right now unless it is to cage fight the other teams best player each time.

Why is everybody so down on Daniels? He's averaging about 8.5 ppg on 40% 3pt shooting in 19 min/game. Not exceptional, but that 3pt% is quite good, especially on a team like this that is so starved for good shooting. We just got a PG who can actually somewhat run an offense, which may start opening up more clean looks and good shots for Daniels. If anything, I would expect his play to improve as we close out the season. He's only 26 years old and is on a cheap contract. I acknowledge he's no Kobe Bryant or whatever. But what exactly is so horrible about him, especially given that we are literally signing guys off the street to 10-day contracts to otherwise fill out our guard rotation? Why do so many folks here bag on Daniels when we have so many other worse players on the roster?

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/248 ... oy-daniels

We use him wrong. He should never be in the game during a close contest. He makes horrible decisions with the ball in his hands in critical moments. I’ve seen him jack up long contested 3s with >20 seconds to go in the shot clock too many times. Easy to hate on that but it’s our fault for having to put him in there to begin with. He doesn’t belong on the court at that point. Or somebody needs to hold him accountable for those decisions.

[Mori Chu]

Okay, all of those comments are valid. But how does any of that add up to, "So let's dump him for a conditional second-round pick"? As far as I am concerned, second-round picks are of very questionable value. They may lead to an interesting player, but any given second-round pick is much more likely to lead to a guy who gets cut or never gets signed, who maybe goes to the G-League. The likelihood that such a pick leads to a player better than Daniels is very low.

And clearing Daniels off the roster doesn't make much sense on its own merits. He doesn't have a cap-killing contract, and he isn't blocking development of other good young players.

(Not casting Saucey as the leader of the anti-Daniels movement, just responding to his comments and asking for more clarification from the anti-Daniels crowd.)

[specialsauce]

Okay, all of those comments are valid. But how does any of that add up to, "So let's dump him for a conditional second-round pick"? As far as I am concerned, second-round picks are of very questionable value. They may lead to an interesting player, but any given second-round pick is much more likely to lead to a guy who gets cut or never gets signed, who maybe goes to the G-League. The likelihood that such a pick leads to a player better than Daniels is very low.

And clearing Daniels off the roster doesn't make much sense on its own merits. He doesn't have a cap-killing contract, and he isn't blocking development of other good young players.

(Not casting Saucey as the leader of the anti-Daniels movement, just responding to his comments and asking for more clarification from the anti-Daniels crowd.)

Sorry, to clarify I’m not in favor of dumping him just for the sake of getting rid of him. I wouldn’t hesitate to include him in a deal to improve our team though and I don’t think he belongs in a regular rotation, more as an end of the bench situational player.

[O_Gardino]

I would still like Split or someone else who's on top of advanced stats to find out what TJ's percentages are on the flash/curl to the FT line play

I'll see what I can do. You might have to wait until Monday when I have a day off

If you don't mind, I got curious and wanted to see if the stats meet the eye test so I went to NBA.com.

In cut plays (the closest to the curl I could find on the site), and with >20 games and >1 such plays per game attempted as custom filters (to remove the noise), we have this:

Warren is #12 overall in proficiency per raw FG attempts per game at 1.8AtPG (the numbers on this stuff are little, so small differences matter a lot).

The first thing you notice is the context: all the other top guys are big men. Like, real big men (none of these fake PFs). You can't find another SF until Giannis at around #25 (always put an * on anything Giannis; such an outlier). Then Andre Robertson, Klay and Casspi just outside the top30. In the case of the GSW guys, this is due to the nature of their offensive system, which puts a premium on movement to take advantage of the inmense gravity pull Curry and Durant generate.

Now, for efficiency (how good of a finisher you are): Warren gives you 63.5%FG on such plays, clocking at an apparently meh top50. I say apparently meh because you have to look at how frequently others try this type of play, and turns out only 6 players among said top50 try more than Warren. In other words, more than solid. If you are curious, LeBron gives you 87% (1 attempt) and Wiggins and Simmon 81% (1 and 1.5 attempts respectively). Simmons is truly LeBron-esque.

But this is not the only thing Warren does (also capable isos and elite transition), as his FREQUENCY is just 10.5%. In contrast, the other top10 players in raw FG all devote a big % of their possessions to cuts, with the exception of Anthony Davis (11%). We are talking a BIG difference here: from RoLo and Nurkic's 15% to Henson's 36%.

So what does all this tell me? That Warren has an unnatural ability to score inside, more typical of the best big men and the most phisically gifted forwards, none of which is Warren. He is a top2 in drives success ratio, giving us a 78pts%, after only Durant (85%). And for prognosis, if he adds a decent 3pt shot, he is a 25ppg scorer in this league. Hell, he might be one with just better teammates and system around him.

That was really interesting. Thanks.

[Mori Chu]

Sorry, to clarify I’m not in favor of dumping him just for the sake of getting rid of him. I wouldn’t hesitate to include him in a deal to improve our team though and I don’t think he belongs in a regular rotation, more as an end of the bench situational player.

Okay, that's fair. I mostly agree with that. I would be happy to trade him if it made us better. I do think he could be in our rotation as an 8-9th man, a guard off the bench. Maybe a Ulis-Daniels bench backcourt could get something done in limited minutes.

[INFORMER]

When your team isn't good, you're trying to develop substantial talents, you have cap space and tons of draft picks, there really isn't a point devoting court time and a roster spot to a journeyman, one-dimensional, mediocre shooter.

Daniels value is as a minimum salary 3-point shooter on a capped-out team with multiple established stars that is competing to contend.

[Split T]

I'm fine with him on the team, I do hope we start giving Reed more minutes

[Aztec Sunsfan]

I can’t believe no one up to this point has forced Payton to take a haircut, is clearly like using blindolds for upper peripheral vision, not counting the distraction to it. Like having a fly just out of your central vision.

I liked the kid, but this “fashion” haircut is like playing with a giant baseball cap, like many said before.