Who would you pick if we (OGW-willing) landed #1?

[Cap]

Walker has borderline Elfrid hair.

Simple solution...



Tie it back during games.

[O_Gardino]

That Kentucky 22 player looks scared!

That's our good friend Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

[pickle]

As usual I'm late to the game... but want to share my 2 cents anyway. Took me quite a while to sift through 18 pages of posts, didn't want to just start posting without reading what others have said.

I should start with a disclaimer that I have no time to watch any games anymore, so I'm basing everything on reading scouting reports. If the reports are accurate, I don't see any argument for Ayton over Doncic. In fact my preferences on the players in this draft at the top are Doncic/JJJ/Mikal Bridges/Bamba. My ideal case scenario might be that we trade down with the top pick and move down enough to grab JJJ with an additional asset, which we combine again with the 16th pick and/or one of our current youngsters not named Booker/Jackson/Bender and move up to get Mikal. But the chances of that happening are probably less than a snowball's in hell, but a man can dream.

In terms of the comparisons of Ayton vs. Doncic, I tend to side with O_Gardino. I think the evolution of the modern NBA game is of course partly emulation (GSW success), but mostly due to change in rules, one of which O mentioned. The others are illegal defense and hand checking, which combine to decrease the effectiveness of the inside player, who now has much less space to operate unless he's a generational passer a la Jokic, and increases the freedom with which the perimeter player has to operate. Another key factor is the moving picks call... Most of the top of the key picks where the big doesn't immediately receive the ball are called so loosely that the bigs often don't even go through the motions, they just simply grab the smaller defensive player and take them out of the play. These things together mean that the inside player's effectiveness is dropping while the outside player's rate of success is raising, to the point where teams are forced to play smaller. This is not a fad, it's a natural revolution of the NBA game due to rules implemented and executed.

Of the successful modern bigs listed earlier, AD/Embiid/KAT/Jokic/Cousins (I would add Horford to that list), none of them play a traditional lumbering style. Almost all of them have respectable success rate at the 3 point line and can drive around defenders, as well as make passes -- in other words they can react to the defensive schemes thrown at them and make plays. The traditional-ish centers who find success in the league today, the Jordans, Goberts, Capelas, and Adamses, play within their limitations. All four are very good at setting picks, and can dive and draw defenders with their elite athletic abilities, the key here being that they take defenders with them and thus clearing more space for the guards to operate. So even if they cannot shoot from the outside, their teams have found ways for them to be offensive focal points in such a way that they generate more openings for others.

Is Ayton either one of those two types? I've read reports that says he has good enough passing vision while posting up. No reports say anything about his ability to shoot the NBA three, and I am gonna guess he's not on Jokic's level as a passer. I'm sure he's got the talent to set picks and dive and look for the lob, but with his talent and self-positioning, is he going to be content doing that? Or will he demand the ball to be run through his hands more so he could operate at the 20 foot line?

I also agree with the others who mention his defensive deficiencies... the four bigs mentioned who excel at PnR offense, all of them are massive pluses defending the rim. I'll try to find the two or three scouting reports that I've read that helped inform my opinion, I fear that the weaknesses he has are not easy ones to improve upon.

I do think Ayton holds a lot of value in terms of his hype, and I'm sure he'll put up numbers, but if the end goal is a championship I don't see him leading us there unless he makes significant upgrades to multiple facets of his game... and I think the chances of those are low. If we draft him, I'd prefer we do the Boston/Tatum thing, and send him to whomever drafts Jackson Jr. plus a future asset.

As for Doncic, I think being a winner is incredibly important. I don't know what the board sentiment on the Suns organization is right now. I see a lot of positive feelings towards Kokoskov, and I hope you guys are right. I am still very bothered by Budenhozer turning us down so quickly and am afraid that our general organizational culture is still on the dysfunctional end of the scale, what with Sarver being at the helm, tightfisted as he is, and all. In this case, I am afraid that Kokoskov might not get the resources he needs to develop the youngsters on the team. We already need a lot of work on Josh Jackson and Bender and to a lesser extent Payton (depending on contract)/Ulis (hope he can pick up an outside shot and become a change of pace guard off bench)/Chriss (basketball IQ would be nice)/TJ Warren (3 point shot and defensive positioning) and finally, Booker (defense). I'd hate for us to have to also hold Ayton's hands, whereas Doncic has proven a certain level of maturity already and if I had to bet, I'd say he has the better chance of getting better every summer like the truly greats do, all on his own, vs. Ayton.

Since a lot of others have already posted about Doncic's fit and passing ability and possibilities to upgrade his physical attributes with training, I won't launch into those. This post is long enough as it is.

TL;DR: Doncic for maturity, Jaren Jackson for fit, Mikal Bridges also high on my list, not very interested in Ayton.

[pickle]

Below are the scouting reports from ESPN and The Ringer, and I've formed most of my opinion based on reading rather than watching (I did catch Youtube highlights but honestly those are not that informative IMHO).

Deandre Ayton

ESPN:

Strengths

• Incredibly gifted physical specimen in terms of size, length, frame and mobility.
• Exceptionally skilled for a player his size. Can dribble, pass and shoot. Inside-out threat.
• Terrific rebounder (career 15.2 per 40 minutes).

Improvement areas

• Often a step slow defensively. Instincts/awareness leave a lot to be desired at times. Didn't affect the game (0.7 steals, 2.3 blocks per 40) as much as you'd expect at college level. Can he anchor a defense?
• Work ethic is average according to those who have worked with him
• Fancies himself as more of a power forward than a center. Would rather pop than roll. Will he be willing to do the dirty work/little things?

The Ringer:

PLUSES

• Has wide shoulders and a thick frame with room to add even more muscle.
• Bouncy athlete vertically, but also very fluid and agile. He has light feet like a dancer, and runs the floor like a T-800 android.
• Excellent finisher around the rim using either hand. Knows how to use angles and footwork to create space on the post.
• Effective shooter due to soft touch and good mechanics; his range projects to the NBA 3-point line.
• Better ball handler attacking from the perimeter than he was able to show at Arizona.
• Underrated passer who makes accurate outlets and kickouts to shooters and cutters. Stays under control when facing pressure or doubles.
• Good rebounder due to his sheer athletic advantage.
• Potentially a super-switchable defender with the length and power to defend true bigs and the lateral quickness to contain wings and guards.
• Does a good job of altering shots without fouling by keeping his hands straight up and not reaching.

MINUSES

• Gets caught in no-man’s-land too often on defense; are his instincts poor, or does he just need more coaching?
• Sometimes just flat-out misses on help defense against dribble penetration.
• Intensity wanes, which has been a knock since he was young; is that because of fatigue, focus, or his mind-set?
• Low block and steal rates are notable considering his elite measurables and theoretical defensive potential.
• Occasionally drifts on the perimeter.
• His hands have improved since high school, but he still occasionally fumbles passes.

Luka Doncic
ESPN:

Strengths

• Electric transition player who rebounds and pushes with a purpose. Powerful athlete once he can get momentum going. Creative open-floor playmaker.
• Ball-screen savant who picks apart defenses with his elite vision, timing and creativity (7.3 assists per 40). Punishes defenders for going under screens with deep pull-ups.
• Smart off-ball defender who shows good activity when his offense is going (8.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals per 40). Elite instincts on both ends.

Improvement areas

• Struggles with aggressive ball pressure. Lacks a degree of wiggle in shot-creation situations. Needs another creator next to him.
• Questions about his defensive upside. Can he hold up against NBA wings?
• Prone to occasional emotional outbursts. Doesn't always handle adversity well.

The Ringer:

PLUSES

• Transcendent passer: Throws Manu-style overhead whips, accurate cross-court dimes, and no-looks that’ll make highlight reels.
• Puts perfect velocity and touch on passes, plus has the height to pass over the defense.
• Surgically navigates pick-and-rolls, snaking to the middle, keeping defenders on his back, and picking defenses apart as a passer.
• Advanced ball handler for his age with an excellent feel for using crossovers, hesitations, and different speeds.
• Draws a ton of fouls; knows how to use his thick, strong frame to create and absorb contact.
• Feathery touch on floaters and layups. His outstanding free throw percentage suggests he can develop into a knockdown shooter.
• Flashes Harden-like upside on jumpers off the dribble; he can stop abruptly, smoothly step back, and launch.
• Advanced at using fakes to shake defenses loose when running through screens or cutting.
• Skilled post player; he uses his excellent footwork to work into turnaround jumpers, up-and-unders, drop steps, and hook shots.
• Excellent rebounder for his position, and he quickly turns boards into transition offense.
• Competitive, physical defender who hustles, closes out hard, and battles on switches.
• Displays a special level of maturity: He’s excelled in the world’s second-best league and come up clutch in tense moments.

MINUSES

• Struggles to contain quicker, more explosive players due to average agility and lateral quickness.
• Pick-and-roll defense must improve in terms of positioning and fighting over screens.
• Doesn’t create a ton of separation when turning the corner on drives due to lack of elite burst. Ends up settling for contested midrange pull-ups.
• Jumper needs some slight adjustments: He occasionally misses left or right. Could stand to speed up his release.
• Rarely uses his left hand to finish around the rim, which is important to develop for a player who lacks explosiveness inside.

ESPN: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_ ... weaknesses
The Ringer: https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

I've highlighted a few things on Ayton that really bother me about him. Again, referring back to my previous longish post, I'm afraid a guy who isn't 100% tuned in mentally is not a good fit for this franchise at the current time. I'd be much more comfortable with Doncic who hopefully is a little bit more impervious to negative organizational influences thanks to already having success at a high level and knowing how to win, despite not being an overwhelming physical specimen.

[Democritus]

I think the more people read about Doncic and watch some actual games of him the more will they lean towards him. It's that simple IMO..

[Superbone]

I think the more people read about Doncic and watch some actual games of him the more will they lean towards him. It's that simple IMO..

Welcome, Democritus!

[Democritus]

I think the more people read about Doncic and watch some actual games of him the more will they lean towards him. It's that simple IMO..

Welcome, Democritus!

Thanks man, it is nice to be here. I have followed the board and its wise members..since..lets see..I think it was the year when we drafted Amare..o gosh 16 years ago.. Time flies indeed and changes everything but its great and meaningful to have constant things like a passion for something..
And I believe we will rise with this pick from our ashes...It is our time now.
C'mon DONCIC....

[Ring_Wanted]

Yeah, so nice to see new blood! Welcome!

[Indy]

agreed--welcome to the board, Democritus.

[Democritus]

Indy, Ring-Wanted...Guys thank you so much, really a special place to be... This community here is trully a part of my daily life, kind of a family I guess
And I think there is a silent crowd out there who needs a little bit inspiration to register and contribute.. This season they might find it

[AmareIsGod]

Everyone is clamouring for Doncic. The same guy that couldn't get past his European defender in the championship and finished 3 for 8 with 3 assists and 4 rebounds. Pretty ho hum numbers. On a #1 pick? Is this board going mad?

[O_Gardino]

16 years lurking!

I'm expecting one long post with your thoughts on all the things we've discussed since then.

[Democritus]

16 years lurking!

I'm expecting one long post with your thoughts on all the things we've discussed since then.

Ahaha..
Mission Impossible but since I'm not Cruise it is really impossible. Now I do not want hijack this beautiful draft thread with so many valuable scout analysis If I find the time and the energy, I'm going make a separate thread about these blurry past days of phxsuns.net and myself

[In2ition]

I think the more people read about Doncic and watch some actual games of him the more will they lean towards him. It's that simple IMO..

Welcome, Democritus!

I've watched quite a bit of Doncic including all the Eurocup games last year, and I think he's great, love him. That being said, I would take Ayton #1 ahead of him.

[O_Gardino]

Everyone is clamouring for Doncic. The same guy that couldn't get past his European defender in the championship and finished 3 for 8 with 3 assists and 4 rebounds. Pretty ho hum numbers. On a #1 pick? Is this board going mad?

You just don't understand the game. He is facing better defenders than anybody in the NCAA. His team won the championship, and he was finals MVP.

Ready to apply that same line of reasoning to Ayton, who had a bad game and was eliminated in the first round? Against a small ball team on which more than half the players will never go pro in any league.

[Democritus]

I think the more people read about Doncic and watch some actual games of him the more will they lean towards him. It's that simple IMO..

Welcome, Democritus!

I've watched quite a bit of Doncic including all the Eurocup games last year, and I think he's great, love him. That being said, I would take Ayton #1 ahead of him.

Thanks, man. I guess I overvalue the decision-making aspect of any given player rather than athleticism. That is why I was fascinated by Kidd, Nash etc. I really think Doncic can lead us to the promised land and Booker will conquer that land.

[In2ition]

I think the more people read about Doncic and watch some actual games of him the more will they lean towards him. It's that simple IMO..

Welcome, Democritus!

I've watched quite a bit of Doncic including all the Eurocup games last year, and I think he's great, love him. That being said, I would take Ayton #1 ahead of him.

Thanks, man. I guess I overvalue the decision-making aspect of any given player rather than athleticism. That is why I was fascinated by Kidd, Nash etc. I really think Doncic can lead us to the promised land and Booker will conquer that land.

I love players like that too. Unfortunately, not very many have won a title without a dominate big with them. Seems that Doncic and Ayton are friends along with having the same agent. If they are determined to play with each other, perhaps there may be a way to make it happen and I think Phx is the only team to be able to make it happen.

[AmareIsGod]

Below are the scouting reports from ESPN and The Ringer, and I've formed most of my opinion based on reading rather than watching (I did catch Youtube highlights but honestly those are not that informative IMHO).

Deandre Ayton

ESPN:

Strengths

• Incredibly gifted physical specimen in terms of size, length, frame and mobility.
• Exceptionally skilled for a player his size. Can dribble, pass and shoot. Inside-out threat.
• Terrific rebounder (career 15.2 per 40 minutes).

Improvement areas

• Often a step slow defensively. Instincts/awareness leave a lot to be desired at times. Didn't affect the game (0.7 steals, 2.3 blocks per 40) as much as you'd expect at college level. Can he anchor a defense?
• Work ethic is average according to those who have worked with him
• Fancies himself as more of a power forward than a center. Would rather pop than roll. Will he be willing to do the dirty work/little things?

The Ringer:

PLUSES

• Has wide shoulders and a thick frame with room to add even more muscle.
• Bouncy athlete vertically, but also very fluid and agile. He has light feet like a dancer, and runs the floor like a T-800 android.
• Excellent finisher around the rim using either hand. Knows how to use angles and footwork to create space on the post.
• Effective shooter due to soft touch and good mechanics; his range projects to the NBA 3-point line.
• Better ball handler attacking from the perimeter than he was able to show at Arizona.
• Underrated passer who makes accurate outlets and kickouts to shooters and cutters. Stays under control when facing pressure or doubles.
• Good rebounder due to his sheer athletic advantage.
• Potentially a super-switchable defender with the length and power to defend true bigs and the lateral quickness to contain wings and guards.
• Does a good job of altering shots without fouling by keeping his hands straight up and not reaching.

MINUSES

• Gets caught in no-man’s-land too often on defense; are his instincts poor, or does he just need more coaching?
• Sometimes just flat-out misses on help defense against dribble penetration.
• Intensity wanes, which has been a knock since he was young; is that because of fatigue, focus, or his mind-set?
• Low block and steal rates are notable considering his elite measurables and theoretical defensive potential.
• Occasionally drifts on the perimeter.
• His hands have improved since high school, but he still occasionally fumbles passes.

Luka Doncic
ESPN:

Strengths

• Electric transition player who rebounds and pushes with a purpose. Powerful athlete once he can get momentum going. Creative open-floor playmaker.
• Ball-screen savant who picks apart defenses with his elite vision, timing and creativity (7.3 assists per 40). Punishes defenders for going under screens with deep pull-ups.
• Smart off-ball defender who shows good activity when his offense is going (8.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals per 40). Elite instincts on both ends.

Improvement areas

• Struggles with aggressive ball pressure. Lacks a degree of wiggle in shot-creation situations. Needs another creator next to him.
• Questions about his defensive upside. Can he hold up against NBA wings?
• Prone to occasional emotional outbursts. Doesn't always handle adversity well.

The Ringer:

PLUSES

• Transcendent passer: Throws Manu-style overhead whips, accurate cross-court dimes, and no-looks that’ll make highlight reels.
• Puts perfect velocity and touch on passes, plus has the height to pass over the defense.
• Surgically navigates pick-and-rolls, snaking to the middle, keeping defenders on his back, and picking defenses apart as a passer.
• Advanced ball handler for his age with an excellent feel for using crossovers, hesitations, and different speeds.
• Draws a ton of fouls; knows how to use his thick, strong frame to create and absorb contact.
• Feathery touch on floaters and layups. His outstanding free throw percentage suggests he can develop into a knockdown shooter.
• Flashes Harden-like upside on jumpers off the dribble; he can stop abruptly, smoothly step back, and launch.
• Advanced at using fakes to shake defenses loose when running through screens or cutting.
• Skilled post player; he uses his excellent footwork to work into turnaround jumpers, up-and-unders, drop steps, and hook shots.
• Excellent rebounder for his position, and he quickly turns boards into transition offense.
• Competitive, physical defender who hustles, closes out hard, and battles on switches.
• Displays a special level of maturity: He’s excelled in the world’s second-best league and come up clutch in tense moments.

MINUSES

• Struggles to contain quicker, more explosive players due to average agility and lateral quickness.
• Pick-and-roll defense must improve in terms of positioning and fighting over screens.
• Doesn’t create a ton of separation when turning the corner on drives due to lack of elite burst. Ends up settling for contested midrange pull-ups.
• Jumper needs some slight adjustments: He occasionally misses left or right. Could stand to speed up his release.
• Rarely uses his left hand to finish around the rim, which is important to develop for a player who lacks explosiveness inside.

ESPN: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_ ... weaknesses
The Ringer: https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

I've highlighted a few things on Ayton that really bother me about him. Again, referring back to my previous longish post, I'm afraid a guy who isn't 100% tuned in mentally is not a good fit for this franchise at the current time. I'd be much more comfortable with Doncic who hopefully is a little bit more impervious to negative organizational influences thanks to already having success at a high level and knowing how to win, despite not being an overwhelming physical specimen.

pickle, it's interesting that you bold the weaknesses of Ayton but don't bold a single weakness of Doncic. There's a bit of bias on the boards it feels like where people are heavily vested in Doncic as the perfect fit and next star and Ayton just a useless big.

[AmareIsGod]

Doncic crowned MVP though Fabien Causeur was the hero and better player. We should take a look at him while we're at it.

[Indy]

Everyone is clamouring for Doncic. The same guy that couldn't get past his European defender in the championship and finished 3 for 8 with 3 assists and 4 rebounds. Pretty ho hum numbers. On a #1 pick? Is this board going mad?

He is facing better defenders than anybody in the NCAA. His team won the championship, and he was finals MVP.

Ready to apply that same line of reasoning to Ayton, who had a bad game and was eliminated in the first round? Against a small ball team on which more than half the players will never go pro in any league.

THIS. You can't say that about Luka and not about Ayton two times over. How many of the final 4 teams in Euro League would beat their final four opponent in NCAA?