2018 Suns Offseason News

Discussion of the league and of our favorite team.
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O_Gardino
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by O_Gardino »

INFORMER wrote:I think the omission was significant. I don't think he just forgot about him in the moment. But I think it could go either way: either he doesn't have him on the radar, or he isn't trying to show his hand.

Besides the JJJ thing, I have another theory: Ryan prefers Doncic, Sarver prefers Ayton. Ryan asked Sarver to go watch Doncic playoffs; Sarver is keeping an open mind and wanted James Jones's input as well, so they went together to see for themselves.
That's not even a theory. That's just how the club runs.
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JCSunsfan
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

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INFORMER wrote:I think the omission was significant. I don't think he just forgot about him in the moment. But I think it could go either way: either he doesn't have him on the radar, or he isn't trying to show his hand.

Besides the JJJ thing, I have another theory: Ryan prefers Doncic, Sarver prefers Ayton. Ryan asked Sarver to go watch Doncic playoffs; Sarver is keeping an open mind and wanted James Jones's input as well, so they went together to see for themselves.
I think that theory is pretty accurate. I think Sarver loves Ayton (hence Gambo's 100% remarks). I think McD is trying to keep an open mind right now rather than being tipped toward Doncic. Its pretty clear that this is how the decision making process works and it is typical among pro franchises (see Michael Bidwill's role on the Cardinals or Dr. Buss with the Lakers).

They cannot blow this pick. If there is any chance that Doncic ends up being the better player, they at least want to be able to say that they thoroughly scouted both players. You cannot have Doncic end up being the better player and say "Oh know, we love Ayton, so we did not go watch Doncic play." Due diligence. Its what business men do.

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The Bobster
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

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I just have a hard time passing on a C who has the athleticism to have the potential in a best cast scenario to be the next David Robinson/Shawn Kemp/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing type of player.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basket ... highlights
Author of The Basketball Draft Fact Book: A History of Professional Basketball's College Drafts
Available from Scarecrow Press at - https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780810890695

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Cap
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by Cap »

The Bobster wrote:I just have a hard time passing on a C who has the athleticism to have the potential in a best cast scenario to be the next David Robinson/Shawn Kemp/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing type of player.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basket ... highlights
Me too. But I also have a hard time passing on a 19 year old who is already the best player in Europe. And we have to pass on at least one of them.

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The Bobster
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

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Cap wrote:
The Bobster wrote:I just have a hard time passing on a C who has the athleticism to have the potential in a best cast scenario to be the next David Robinson/Shawn Kemp/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing type of player.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basket ... highlights
Me too. But I also have a hard time passing on a 19 year old who is already the best player in Europe. And we have to pass on at least one of them.
True, I think they're both be great pros. I just think personally I'd go with the guy who fits your current core personnel better and might be one of those "generational athletes". (A sports generation is what? 10 years now?)
Author of The Basketball Draft Fact Book: A History of Professional Basketball's College Drafts
Available from Scarecrow Press at - https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780810890695

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JCSunsfan
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

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Cap wrote:
The Bobster wrote:I just have a hard time passing on a C who has the athleticism to have the potential in a best cast scenario to be the next David Robinson/Shawn Kemp/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing type of player.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basket ... highlights
Me too. But I also have a hard time passing on a 19 year old who is already the best player in Europe. And we have to pass on at least one of them.
The problem with having the #1 pick is that you only get one of them.

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Cap
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by Cap »

The Bobster wrote:
Cap wrote:
The Bobster wrote:I just have a hard time passing on a C who has the athleticism to have the potential in a best cast scenario to be the next David Robinson/Shawn Kemp/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing type of player.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basket ... highlights
Me too. But I also have a hard time passing on a 19 year old who is already the best player in Europe. And we have to pass on at least one of them.
True, I think they're both be great pros. I just think personally I'd go with the guy who fits your current core personnel better and might be one of those "generational athletes". (A sports generation is what? 10 years now?)
My “history of D’oh!” post really gives me the willies. Drafting for size in the top 2 has so often turned out to be a mistake, while drafting a guard or wing immediately ahead of a big never has. Maybe it’s just coincidence, maybe this is the year the pattern breaks, but the historical trend is hard to ignore.

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The Bobster
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

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Cap wrote:
The Bobster wrote:
Cap wrote:
The Bobster wrote:I just have a hard time passing on a C who has the athleticism to have the potential in a best cast scenario to be the next David Robinson/Shawn Kemp/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing type of player.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basket ... highlights
Me too. But I also have a hard time passing on a 19 year old who is already the best player in Europe. And we have to pass on at least one of them.
True, I think they're both be great pros. I just think personally I'd go with the guy who fits your current core personnel better and might be one of those "generational athletes". (A sports generation is what? 10 years now?)
My “history of D’oh!” post really gives me the willies. Drafting for size in the top 2 has so often turned out to be a mistake, while drafting a guard or wing ahead of a big never does. Maybe it’s just coincidence, maybe this is the year the pattern breaks, but the historical trend is hard to ignore.
I think most of the "drafting for size" players who have "flopped" were guys who were the best of an underwhelming bunch of big men (Olowakandi, Brown) or injury problems (Bowie, Oden). I don;t think Ayton has either of those issues.

Both Ayton and Doncic have some defensive questions though, and I think Ayton is more likely to be more effective defensively because he has terrific athleticism and playing him as a forward in college will help him defensively in the long run.
Author of The Basketball Draft Fact Book: A History of Professional Basketball's College Drafts
Available from Scarecrow Press at - https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780810890695

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JCSunsfan
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by JCSunsfan »

Cap wrote:
The Bobster wrote:
Cap wrote:
The Bobster wrote:I just have a hard time passing on a C who has the athleticism to have the potential in a best cast scenario to be the next David Robinson/Shawn Kemp/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing type of player.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basket ... highlights
Me too. But I also have a hard time passing on a 19 year old who is already the best player in Europe. And we have to pass on at least one of them.
True, I think they're both be great pros. I just think personally I'd go with the guy who fits your current core personnel better and might be one of those "generational athletes". (A sports generation is what? 10 years now?)
My “history of D’oh!” post really gives me the willies. Drafting for size in the top 2 has so often turned out to be a mistake, while drafting a guard or wing immediately ahead of a big never has. Maybe it’s just coincidence, maybe this is the year the pattern breaks, but the historical trend is hard to ignore.
That would be an interesting study. There are very few historical situations where the guard was taken #1 over a center. I think that is because there is a deference to size. So if a guard is taken #1, its because he is clearly the best player. But even then there are plenty of examples where the small guy was not as good or a mistake. I am just looking here at the first pick, big or guard, over the next player of the opposite category. Looks to me like its about even.
2017--Fultz over Tatum
2016 Simmons, not a mistake
2015 KAT, not a mistake
2014--Wiggins over Embiid--mistake
2013--Bennett over Oladipo--mistake
2012--AD over MKG--not a mistake
2011-- Kyrie over Derrick Williams--not a mistake (easy choice too)
2010--Wall over Cousins--wash? Mistake?
2009--Blake Griffin (big?) over James Harden--mistake
2008--Rose over Beasley--not a mistake.

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Split T
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by Split T »

Cap wrote:
The Bobster wrote:I just have a hard time passing on a C who has the athleticism to have the potential in a best cast scenario to be the next David Robinson/Shawn Kemp/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing type of player.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basket ... highlights
Me too. But I also have a hard time passing on a 19 year old who is already the best player in Europe. And we have to pass on at least one of them.
We could still pass on both of them ;)

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Cap
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by Cap »

I realize it’s not a completely rational argument, and most of those other situations were for one reason or another not completely comparable to the current one. But man, there are a lot of those big-over-little mistakes, and basically none the other way around.

Part of the reason there aren’t a lot of little-over-big mistakes, as JCSF points out, is that there simply aren’t a lot of picks that meet the qualifying criteria (top 2 pick, guard/wing, one pick ahead of a big). Here are the few:

1996: Allen Iverson over Marcus Camby
1998: Mike Bibby over Raef LaFrentz
2002: Jay Williams over Mike Dunleavy (if you consider Dunleavy a big)
2003: LeBron James over Darko Milicic (if you consider LeBron a wing)
2007: Kevin Durant over Al Horford
2008: Derrick Rose over Michael Beasley
2011: Kyrie Irving over Derrick Williams
2015: D’Angelo Russell over Jahlil Okafor

Four MVPs in that small group, and no glaring mistakes, except maybe 2015. Probably too soon to draw definitive conclusions about that one.

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Split T
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by Split T »

Russell over Kristaps would be the mistake

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Cap
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by Cap »

Yeah, but I’m only comparing picks to their immediate successors.

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Split T
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by Split T »

Cap wrote:Yeah, but I’m only comparing picks to their immediate successors.
That's fair and probably the best way to do it. Remembering who was actually being considered at different spots is harder the further you go back. I don't even remember if Kristaps was under consideration at #2, I had him top 3 on my list with Russell and KAT, but many probably had him lower.

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O_Gardino
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by O_Gardino »

Another thing that's interesting is to go back and look at the list of #1 picks. Most of them turned out to be pretty good, even if they weren't the best in the class that year.

Then pick any given year and check out the top 10 picks. Lots and lots of guys just don't pan out. Even as high as #2, there are a lot more missed opportunities.

It adds a sense of humility to this draft discussion. We are fairly safe in getting a pretty good player, and of the top 10 that each of us likes, chances are 5ish of them wont pan out.
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Cap
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

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Here’s another pattern. Centers selected #1 overall.

1984: Akeem (that’s how he spelled it then) Olajuwon
1985: Patrick Ewing
1986: Brad Daugherty
1987: David Robinson
1989: Pervis Ellison
1992: SHAQ
1997: Tim Duncan
1998: Michael Olowokandi
2002: Yao Ming
2004: Dwight Howard
2005: Andrew Bogut
2007: Greg Oden
2012: The Brow (usually plays PF, but also plays C)
2015: KAT

Certainly, most of them worked out well. Kandi and Oden are the only complete flops.

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O_Gardino
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

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Cap wrote:Here’s another pattern. Centers selected #1 overall.

1984: Akeem (that’s how he spelled it then) Olajuwon
1985: Patrick Ewing
1986: Brad Daugherty
1987: David Robinson
1989: Pervis Ellison
1992: SHAQ
1997: Tim Duncan
1998: Michael Olowokandi
2002: Yao Ming
2004: Dwight Howard
2005: Andrew Bogut
2007: Greg Oden
2012: The Brow (usually plays PF, but also plays C)
2015: KAT

Certainly, most of them worked out well. Kandi and Oden are the only complete flops.
So you're telling me that Bogut is the only center drafted #1 to win a ring since Duncan in 1997?
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Cap
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

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O_Gardino wrote:
Cap wrote:Here’s another pattern. Centers selected #1 overall.

1984: Akeem (that’s how he spelled it then) Olajuwon
1985: Patrick Ewing
1986: Brad Daugherty
1987: David Robinson
1989: Pervis Ellison
1992: SHAQ
1997: Tim Duncan
1998: Michael Olowokandi
2002: Yao Ming
2004: Dwight Howard
2005: Andrew Bogut
2007: Greg Oden
2012: The Brow (usually plays PF, but also plays C)
2015: KAT

Certainly, most of them worked out well. Kandi and Oden are the only complete flops.
So you're telling me that Bogut is the only center drafted #1 to win a ring since Duncan in 1997?
IINM, LeBron and Kyrie are the only other #1 picks at any position to win a ring in that time frame.

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O_Gardino
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by O_Gardino »

Cap wrote:
O_Gardino wrote:
Cap wrote:Here’s another pattern. Centers selected #1 overall.

1984: Akeem (that’s how he spelled it then) Olajuwon
1985: Patrick Ewing
1986: Brad Daugherty
1987: David Robinson
1989: Pervis Ellison
1992: SHAQ
1997: Tim Duncan
1998: Michael Olowokandi
2002: Yao Ming
2004: Dwight Howard
2005: Andrew Bogut
2007: Greg Oden
2012: The Brow (usually plays PF, but also plays C)
2015: KAT

Certainly, most of them worked out well. Kandi and Oden are the only complete flops.
So you're telling me that Bogut is the only center drafted #1 to win a ring since Duncan in 1997?
IINM, LeBron and Kyrie are the only other #1 picks at any position to win a ring in that time frame.
2-1 odds Doncic is better! :mrgreen:

Nah, I know that's not point.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan

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Cap
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Re: 2018 Suns Offseason News

Post by Cap »

O_Gardino wrote:
Cap wrote:
O_Gardino wrote:
Cap wrote:Here’s another pattern. Centers selected #1 overall.

1984: Akeem (that’s how he spelled it then) Olajuwon
1985: Patrick Ewing
1986: Brad Daugherty
1987: David Robinson
1989: Pervis Ellison
1992: SHAQ
1997: Tim Duncan
1998: Michael Olowokandi
2002: Yao Ming
2004: Dwight Howard
2005: Andrew Bogut
2007: Greg Oden
2012: The Brow (usually plays PF, but also plays C)
2015: KAT

Certainly, most of them worked out well. Kandi and Oden are the only complete flops.
So you're telling me that Bogut is the only center drafted #1 to win a ring since Duncan in 1997?
IINM, LeBron and Kyrie are the only other #1 picks at any position to win a ring in that time frame.
2-1 odds Doncic is better! :mrgreen:

Nah, I know that's not point.
LeBron and Kyrie had to team up to win a title. Bogut did it by himself. :mrgreen:

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