Around the League: 2018 Offseason

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In2ition
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by In2ition »

Split T wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:44 am
Ring_Wanted wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:49 am
Split T wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:47 pm
Not sure I share your concerns offensively. We added significant shooting around the booker-Ayton pairing with Ariza/Bridges. Warren/Jackson have questions about their jump shots, but Warren is a very effective offensive player still. Jackson has further questions, but he's promising, just a work in progress. I know most aren't expecting anything from Knight, but at worst he's still an upgrade from the crapfest we trotted out at PG last year.
In the case of Ariza and Bridges the questions don't come from the kind of game they play. I agree they are a couple of 3D wings and we needed that. The problem is going to be playing time. Ariza, Bridges, Jackson and Warren are all wings and minutes will be tight even if you want to experiment with them at PF some (and that's not even counting Bender and Chriss). This kind of juggling can lead to a number of guys very unsatisfied. This offseason was not meant to bring this problem yet again.

As for Knight, at worst he is even worse than what we had last year if he keeps turning the ball over, playing hero ball, missing shots and making dumb decisions. Canaan was better as a PG, which is crazy.
That's fair. Minute distribution will be interesting. As for Knight, he was awful in 2016, but I think you're overrating Canaan because the rest of our pg's were so bad. In by far his worst season, Knight was 19/4/4 with 2.8 turnovers per 36 and shot .40/.33
Canaan was 15/6/4 with 2.5 turnovers and shot .38/.33

So Canaan is a better playmaker, takes care of the ball a little better, but those numbers are pretty evenly matched. I think the chances Knight is that bad again are incredibly low, so Canaan better have improved if he's a better option than Knight.
When does Canaan even get back to his previous form after breaking his leg? Heck, they are still wondering about Hayward in Boston and he had the injury quite a bit earlier in the season.
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Mori Chu
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Mori Chu »

Split T wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:44 am

That's fair. Minute distribution will be interesting. As for Knight, he was awful in 2016, but I think you're overrating Canaan because the rest of our pg's were so bad. In by far his worst season, Knight was 19/4/4 with 2.8 turnovers per 36 and shot .40/.33
Canaan was 15/6/4 with 2.5 turnovers and shot .38/.33

So Canaan is a better playmaker, takes care of the ball a little better, but those numbers are pretty evenly matched. I think the chances Knight is that bad again are incredibly low, so Canaan better have improved if he's a better option than Knight.
I also think those per-36 stats are a bit misleading because the two players played such drastically different amounts of minutes. Brandon Knight was a starter-caliber player who actually played close to 36 minutes many times. Isaiah Canaan was a bench roleplayer who has a much smaller sample size. He played a total of 19 games for us, and he averaged 22 minutes/game. Scaling up his numbers to per-36 is optimistic IMO, since he would have to face other teams' starters more and would likely experience diminishing returns.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... ais01.html

By contrast, in 2015-16 Brandon Knight played in 52 games and averaged 36.0 minutes/game.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... hbr03.html

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Split T
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Split T »

That's a good point, although for this exercise I used knights 16-17 numbers when he came off the bench and played 21 minutes a game. I do think what Knight did in 15-16 is a better indicator of what we'll get from him this year.

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Ring_Wanted
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Ring_Wanted »

All I know is that we needed a PG able to make an entry pass to Ayton and capable of some defense and sensible shooting, and Knight is none of that, unless he has made a 180º change to his game. I won't fault people for having faith but in this case I just don't share it.

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Split T
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Split T »

Entry pass? Sure, Knight has never been a great passer and was especially bad on lobs. But knight is not a bad defender or shooter. He’s not always had great shot selection, but he spent a lot of time as the only option. He’s going to have offensive weapons next to him this year. If he still has tunnel vision and doesn’t run the offense, then sure, cut him loose, but it sounds like he’s bought in. He’s going to get good looks and could be pretty good as a 3rd/4th option.

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Mori Chu
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Mori Chu »

Split T wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:18 am
Entry pass? Sure, Knight has never been a great passer and was especially bad on lobs. But knight is not a bad defender or shooter. He’s not always had great shot selection, but he spent a lot of time as the only option. He’s going to have offensive weapons next to him this year. If he still has tunnel vision and doesn’t run the offense, then sure, cut him loose, but it sounds like he’s bought in. He’s going to get good looks and could be pretty good as a 3rd/4th option.
What Knight is (was) good at is not what we need from the PG position. We need our PG to basically be Rajon Rondo or Ricky Rubio: find and feed Booker and Ayton and the rest. A jumper would be nice, but that's secondary. Passing and defense is what our PG needs, not to be good at getting his own shot or hogging the ball.

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Indy
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Indy »

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:25 am
Split T wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:18 am
Entry pass? Sure, Knight has never been a great passer and was especially bad on lobs. But knight is not a bad defender or shooter. He’s not always had great shot selection, but he spent a lot of time as the only option. He’s going to have offensive weapons next to him this year. If he still has tunnel vision and doesn’t run the offense, then sure, cut him loose, but it sounds like he’s bought in. He’s going to get good looks and could be pretty good as a 3rd/4th option.
What Knight is (was) good at is not what we need from the PG position. We need our PG to basically be Rajon Rondo or Ricky Rubio: find and feed Booker and Ayton and the rest. A jumper would be nice, but that's secondary. Passing and defense is what our PG needs, not to be good at getting his own shot or hogging the ball.
It doesn't matter if your PG is good at passing if defenses don't have to get up on him. I don't care who you have passing the ball if the D can sag off him. The other guys won't be open to get the pass.

And I am less worried about entry passes than shooting. I expect Ayton to be good this year, probably even 15/10, but I don't expect us to run 15 plays a game for him down on the block and us dumping the ball into him. I expect he will get a lot of possessions off of O-boards, and play plenty of pick and roll. Knight and Booker will be good for that.

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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by bajanguy008 »

Indy wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:34 am
Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:25 am
Split T wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:18 am
Entry pass? Sure, Knight has never been a great passer and was especially bad on lobs. But knight is not a bad defender or shooter. He’s not always had great shot selection, but he spent a lot of time as the only option. He’s going to have offensive weapons next to him this year. If he still has tunnel vision and doesn’t run the offense, then sure, cut him loose, but it sounds like he’s bought in. He’s going to get good looks and could be pretty good as a 3rd/4th option.
What Knight is (was) good at is not what we need from the PG position. We need our PG to basically be Rajon Rondo or Ricky Rubio: find and feed Booker and Ayton and the rest. A jumper would be nice, but that's secondary. Passing and defense is what our PG needs, not to be good at getting his own shot or hogging the ball.
It doesn't matter if your PG is good at passing if defenses don't have to get up on him. I don't care who you have passing the ball if the D can sag off him. The other guys won't be open to get the pass.

And I am less worried about entry passes than shooting. I expect Ayton to be good this year, probably even 15/10, but I don't expect us to run 15 plays a game for him down on the block and us dumping the ball into him. I expect he will get a lot of possessions off of O-boards, and play plenty of pick and roll. Knight and Booker will be good for that.
Exactly
Mori , I know you're a big Rubio fan but I think you maybe didn't watch him much last season because just about everyone was noting his new found aggressiveness on offense and confidence in his shot which ironically Igor was praised for. I get the point you are making but Rubio last season had career highs in shot attempts, 3PM and % , PPG and he only avg 5dimes a game after avging 8+ for his career . Just thought you should know 8-)
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Cap
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Cap »

bajanguy008 wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:53 am
Indy wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:34 am
Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:25 am
Split T wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:18 am
Entry pass? Sure, Knight has never been a great passer and was especially bad on lobs. But knight is not a bad defender or shooter. He’s not always had great shot selection, but he spent a lot of time as the only option. He’s going to have offensive weapons next to him this year. If he still has tunnel vision and doesn’t run the offense, then sure, cut him loose, but it sounds like he’s bought in. He’s going to get good looks and could be pretty good as a 3rd/4th option.
What Knight is (was) good at is not what we need from the PG position. We need our PG to basically be Rajon Rondo or Ricky Rubio: find and feed Booker and Ayton and the rest. A jumper would be nice, but that's secondary. Passing and defense is what our PG needs, not to be good at getting his own shot or hogging the ball.
It doesn't matter if your PG is good at passing if defenses don't have to get up on him. I don't care who you have passing the ball if the D can sag off him. The other guys won't be open to get the pass.

And I am less worried about entry passes than shooting. I expect Ayton to be good this year, probably even 15/10, but I don't expect us to run 15 plays a game for him down on the block and us dumping the ball into him. I expect he will get a lot of possessions off of O-boards, and play plenty of pick and roll. Knight and Booker will be good for that.
Exactly
Mori , I know you're a big Rubio fan but I think you maybe didn't watch him much last season because just about everyone was noting his new found aggressiveness on offense and confidence in his shot which ironically Igor was praised for. I get the point you are making but Rubio last season had career highs in shot attempts, 3PM and % , PPG and he only avg 5dimes a game after avging 8+ for his career . Just thought you should know 8-)
Mori actually watched Rubio a lot last season, it’s just that Ricky wasn’t playing basketball in the videos our sysop was watching.

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Split T
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Split T »

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:25 am
Split T wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:18 am
Entry pass? Sure, Knight has never been a great passer and was especially bad on lobs. But knight is not a bad defender or shooter. He’s not always had great shot selection, but he spent a lot of time as the only option. He’s going to have offensive weapons next to him this year. If he still has tunnel vision and doesn’t run the offense, then sure, cut him loose, but it sounds like he’s bought in. He’s going to get good looks and could be pretty good as a 3rd/4th option.
What Knight is (was) good at is not what we need from the PG position. We need our PG to basically be Rajon Rondo or Ricky Rubio: find and feed Booker and Ayton and the rest. A jumper would be nice, but that's secondary. Passing and defense is what our PG needs, not to be good at getting his own shot or hogging the ball.
So instead of a PG hogging the ball and shooting, you want one hogging the ball and passing? Rubio/Rondo have their benefits, but we do not need a PG that needs the ball in their hands to be effective. Rondo and Rubio are pretty useless if they don't have the ball. Call me crazy, but the only reason I'd trade Knight for Rubio is the contract. I think Knight is better for us as a player.

Now, like I said earlier, if Knight reverts back to tunnel vision and poor shot selection of 16-17, then ya, he's worthless. But he actually does provide a lot of what we want next to Booker. He doesn't need the ball in his hands as he's a pretty good shooter off the catch. He can also defend the PG position at at least an average level. He's also a threat to attack off the dribble and draw the defense away from Booker/Ayton and other shooters.

I'm not saying Knight is our savior as I do have some serious questions. Namely, will he be willing to play in Igor's system and move the ball. Also, when he does break down the defense, can he get the ball to the open man. He's been pretty terrible at throwing lobs, hopefully he gets a lot of practice with Ayton.

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Indy
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Indy »

Cap wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:05 am
bajanguy008 wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:53 am
Indy wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:34 am
Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:25 am
Split T wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:18 am
Entry pass? Sure, Knight has never been a great passer and was especially bad on lobs. But knight is not a bad defender or shooter. He’s not always had great shot selection, but he spent a lot of time as the only option. He’s going to have offensive weapons next to him this year. If he still has tunnel vision and doesn’t run the offense, then sure, cut him loose, but it sounds like he’s bought in. He’s going to get good looks and could be pretty good as a 3rd/4th option.
What Knight is (was) good at is not what we need from the PG position. We need our PG to basically be Rajon Rondo or Ricky Rubio: find and feed Booker and Ayton and the rest. A jumper would be nice, but that's secondary. Passing and defense is what our PG needs, not to be good at getting his own shot or hogging the ball.
It doesn't matter if your PG is good at passing if defenses don't have to get up on him. I don't care who you have passing the ball if the D can sag off him. The other guys won't be open to get the pass.

And I am less worried about entry passes than shooting. I expect Ayton to be good this year, probably even 15/10, but I don't expect us to run 15 plays a game for him down on the block and us dumping the ball into him. I expect he will get a lot of possessions off of O-boards, and play plenty of pick and roll. Knight and Booker will be good for that.
Exactly
Mori , I know you're a big Rubio fan but I think you maybe didn't watch him much last season because just about everyone was noting his new found aggressiveness on offense and confidence in his shot which ironically Igor was praised for. I get the point you are making but Rubio last season had career highs in shot attempts, 3PM and % , PPG and he only avg 5dimes a game after avging 8+ for his career . Just thought you should know 8-)
Mori actually watched Rubio a lot last season, it’s just that Ricky wasn’t playing basketball in the videos our sysop was watching.
You get a 10/10 because although it was only 7/10 funny, it was 20/10 true. :P

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Wormwood
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

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You're looking at the wrong stats, however. None of you looked at his net effect on the team while he was on the court.

In 2016-2017 Knight had the second lowest Real Plus Minus among PGs in the NBA.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/ ... position/1

In 2015-12016, his BEST year here, he was 44th out of 65 in ROM among PGs.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/ ... position/1

In 2014-2015 he was 40th out of 57 PGs.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/ ... position/1

He is terrible. He was terrible. He is only getting worse as time goes by. We all know he's a ball-killer, and these are the stats where it actually shows up. Other analysis that I have done in the past shows that RPM is a better predictor of team success than other stats.

While Knight had a -5.32 RPM in his last season with us, Harrison had a .18, Canaan had a -.66, Payton a -2.06. All of these are significantly better. Even Knight's best season with us (2015-16) he had a -2.04, which is essentially the same as the worst PG we had on the roster last year (Payton).

So, going back to everything, no, Knight will not be an upgrade at PG this year. He's a GD albatross of a contract. We will have little to no success until he is gone, or replaced with a competent PG.

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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Indy »

Wormwood wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:09 am
You're looking at the wrong stats, however. None of you looked at his net effect on the team while he was on the court.

In 2016-2017 Knight had the second lowest Real Plus Minus among PGs in the NBA.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/ ... position/1

In 2015-12016, his BEST year here, he was 44th out of 65 in ROM among PGs.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/ ... position/1

In 2014-2015 he was 40th out of 57 PGs.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/ ... position/1

He is terrible. He was terrible. He is only getting worse as time goes by. We all know he's a ball-killer, and these are the stats where it actually shows up. Other analysis that I have done in the past shows that RPM is a better predictor of team success than other stats.

While Knight had a -5.32 RPM in his last season with us, Harrison had a .18, Canaan had a -.66, Payton a -2.06. All of these are significantly better. Even Knight's best season with us (2015-16) he had a -2.04, which is essentially the same as the worst PG we had on the roster last year (Payton).

So, going back to everything, no, Knight will not be an upgrade at PG this year. He's a GD albatross of a contract. We will have little to no success until he is gone, or replaced with a competent PG.
Isn't that self-referential? If you are on a historically bad team, isn't your RPM going to suck too? We have been the worst team in the league over the those years.

Using the same stat, Booker is 41st for 2 guards in the league in 16/17 and 37th last year. Does anyone really think there are 40 2 guards in the league better than Booker?

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Wormwood
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Wormwood »

Cap: No, not self referential, since it compares you with other players on your own team. Think of RPM as a de-aliased net +/- per 48.

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Indy
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Indy »

Wormwood wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:33 am
Cap: No, not self referential, since it compares you with other players on your own team. Think of RPM as a de-aliased net +/- per 48.
So then you are saying that Booker is really bad compared to other players on the Suns?

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Split T
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Split T »

Ya, I don't really buy RPM. It makes sense that bad teams would have players with lower RPM's, but I don't think it accurately ranks players. I haven't seen anything that makes me think it's not greatly impacted by team success.

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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

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Split T wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:42 am
Ya, I don't really buy RPM. It makes sense that bad teams would have players with lower RPM's, but I don't think it accurately ranks players. I haven't seen anything that makes me think it's not greatly impacted by team success.
Exactly. Unless you really think Zaza Pachulia is better than 75% of all centers in the league.

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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

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“Stats: They are like bikinis, show everything but what you really want to know”

“Nothing is true, nothing is bad, it just depends on the asumptions you use on your model and the variables in your index”

Written on the edge of the board in my Advance Econometry classroom, and our teacher tell us those quotes were a reminder from his own teacher, about no going or arguing blindly by the Numbers

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In2ition
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by In2ition »

Aztec Sunsfan wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:34 am
“Stats: They are like bikinis, show everything but what you really want to know”

“Nothing is true, nothing is bad, it just depends on the asumptions you use on your model and the variables in your index”

Written on the edge of the board in my Advance Econometry classroom, and our teacher tell us those quotes were a reminder from his own teacher, about no going or arguing blindly by the Numbers
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli
"When we all think alike, nobody is thinking" - Walter Lippmann
"Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them." ~ Frederick Douglass

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Mori Chu
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Mori Chu »

Indy wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:44 am
Cap wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:05 am

Mori actually watched Rubio a lot last season, it’s just that Ricky wasn’t playing basketball in the videos our sysop was watching.
You get a 10/10 because although it was only 7/10 funny, it was 20/10 true. :P
Image

*swoon*

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