UNPOPULAR OPINION: The draft is an absolute crap-shoot.
Yes, I say this every year. And every year I become more and more convinced that teams who were successful the last couple years simply got lucky.
There isnt anywhere near enough data to accurately determine who will be good and who wont. You can identify what 6-7 areas should be used to evaluate a talent, weigh them equally and simple algorithm will be more successful than any human as it will not have any biases. Even then, a machine isnt going to be any crystal ball.
So the best any team can do is pray for good draft luck.
Better to spend your time, money and effort on selecting good free agents, coaches and trade options.
Of course it's a crap shoot.
The reason it's so important is because the value of having a star player at 50% or less of his true worth is a tremendous advantage in team building and cap management.
Remember what happened when the Suns basically ignored the draft during the early Nash years? If you can't remember, their negligence completely crippled the franchise once the Nash era was finished. We've been paying the price for at least a decade.
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Even if it’s a crapshoot, you need a plan and a structure to maximize your odds, and above all, a really strong development staff. I think the Suns clearly lack off the later, and that has been our principal problem. Many have said it, Bender on the Spurs probably would be already a rotation player for them right now. Giannis on the Suns wouldn’t be the MVP today.
Good scouting and poor development takes you nowhere, strong development and so so scouting, still allows you to build something. That’s why the recent signings give so much hope.
UNPOPULAR OPINION: The draft is an absolute crap-shoot.
Yes, I say this every year. And every year I become more and more convinced that teams who were successful the last couple years simply got lucky.
There isnt anywhere near enough data to accurately determine who will be good and who wont. You can identify what 6-7 areas should be used to evaluate a talent, weigh them equally and simple algorithm will be more successful than any human as it will not have any biases. Even then, a machine isnt going to be any crystal ball.
So the best any team can do is pray for good draft luck.
Better to spend your time, money and effort on selecting good free agents, coaches and trade options.
Of course it's a crap shoot.
The reason it's so important is because the value of having a star player at 50% or less of his true worth is a tremendous advantage in team building and cap management.
Remember what happened when the Suns basically ignored the draft during the early Nash years? If you can't remember, their negligence completely crippled the franchise once the Nash era was finished. We've been paying the price for at least a decade.
Sorry was too busy enjoying all the 50-60 win seasons and deep playoff runs. I’d give up 25 unprotected firsts to have that again.
Even if it’s a crapshoot, you need a plan and a structure to maximize your odds, and above all, a really strong development staff. I think the Suns clearly lack off the later, and that has been our principal problem. Many have said it, Bender on the Spurs probably would be already a rotation player for them right now. Giannis on the Suns wouldn’t be the MVP today.
Good scouting and poor development takes you nowhere, strong development and so so scouting, still allows you to build something. That’s why the recent signings give so much hope.
I don’t know if you’ve seen but we have picked up a couple of top notch development people recently.
UNPOPULAR OPINION: The draft is an absolute crap-shoot.
Yes, I say this every year. And every year I become more and more convinced that teams who were successful the last couple years simply got lucky.
There isnt anywhere near enough data to accurately determine who will be good and who wont. You can identify what 6-7 areas should be used to evaluate a talent, weigh them equally and simple algorithm will be more successful than any human as it will not have any biases. Even then, a machine isnt going to be any crystal ball.
So the best any team can do is pray for good draft luck.
Better to spend your time, money and effort on selecting good free agents, coaches and trade options.
Of course it's a crap shoot.
The reason it's so important is because the value of having a star player at 50% or less of his true worth is a tremendous advantage in team building and cap management.
Remember what happened when the Suns basically ignored the draft during the early Nash years? If you can't remember, their negligence completely crippled the franchise once the Nash era was finished. We've been paying the price for at least a decade.
Sorry was too busy enjoying all the 50-60 win seasons and deep playoff runs. I’d give up 25 unprotected firsts to have that again.
Giving up first round picks had very little, if anything, to do with winning 50-60 games a season.
Just look at a competent franchise like the Spurs. They used the draft to get a top 5 player to sustain their franchise after their big three guys were finished. They also managed to get guys like Kyle Anderson, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White at the back end of the first round because they put effort into scouting and value developing players.
Send me a PM if you're interested in joining the phx-suns.net fantasy basketball league.
You increase your odds of success in the draft by doing your homework and having really good talent evaluators. I really don't think it's as hit or miss as people think or as hard as some teams make it, but that's me.
UNPOPULAR OPINION: The draft is an absolute crap-shoot.
Yes, I say this every year. And every year I become more and more convinced that teams who were successful the last couple years simply got lucky.
There isnt anywhere near enough data to accurately determine who will be good and who wont. You can identify what 6-7 areas should be used to evaluate a talent, weigh them equally and simple algorithm will be more successful than any human as it will not have any biases. Even then, a machine isnt going to be any crystal ball.
So the best any team can do is pray for good draft luck.
Better to spend your time, money and effort on selecting good free agents, coaches and trade options.
Of course it's a crap shoot.
The reason it's so important is because the value of having a star player at 50% or less of his true worth is a tremendous advantage in team building and cap management.
Remember what happened when the Suns basically ignored the draft during the early Nash years? If you can't remember, their negligence completely crippled the franchise once the Nash era was finished. We've been paying the price for at least a decade.
Sorry was too busy enjoying all the 50-60 win seasons and deep playoff runs. I’d give up 25 unprotected firsts to have that again.
UNPOPULAR OPINION: The draft is an absolute crap-shoot.
Yes, I say this every year. And every year I become more and more convinced that teams who were successful the last couple years simply got lucky.
There isnt anywhere near enough data to accurately determine who will be good and who wont. You can identify what 6-7 areas should be used to evaluate a talent, weigh them equally and simple algorithm will be more successful than any human as it will not have any biases. Even then, a machine isnt going to be any crystal ball.
So the best any team can do is pray for good draft luck.
Better to spend your time, money and effort on selecting good free agents, coaches and trade options.
Of course it's a crap shoot.
The reason it's so important is because the value of having a star player at 50% or less of his true worth is a tremendous advantage in team building and cap management.
Remember what happened when the Suns basically ignored the draft during the early Nash years? If you can't remember, their negligence completely crippled the franchise once the Nash era was finished. We've been paying the price for at least a decade.
Sorry was too busy enjoying all the 50-60 win seasons and deep playoff runs. I’d give up 25 unprotected firsts to have that again.
This is an awful take, saucey.
Not awful but I dont think its why they've had this "lost decade".
It was a combination of being unlucky in the draft (think Len, Chris, Bender etc), poor handling of their better players (Morrii, Dragic, Bledsoe etc) and changing coaches every other year.
Add Jackson to that list of wasted picks. And Ayton is kind of underperforming for a consensus #1 pick as well.
1) He was not a consensus #1 pick.
2) He is not under performing. We just want him to be completely dominant and use all of his skills from day one, under an organization that is a complete mess. That is unrealistic.
Add Jackson to that list of wasted picks. And Ayton is kind of underperforming for a consensus #1 pick as well.
1) He was not a consensus #1 pick.
2) He is not under performing. We just want him to be completely dominant and use all of his skills from day one, under an organization that is a complete mess. That is unrealistic.
He absolutely was a consensus #1 pick. There were fans who liked Luka more, but he didn't even go #2.
I think it is completely fair to expect him to draw more fouls, try to block shots, and have some killer instinct.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan
Add Jackson to that list of wasted picks. And Ayton is kind of underperforming for a consensus #1 pick as well.
1) He was not a consensus #1 pick.
2) He is not under performing. We just want him to be completely dominant and use all of his skills from day one, under an organization that is a complete mess. That is unrealistic.
He absolutely was a consensus #1 pick. There were fans who liked Luka more, but he didn't even go #2.
I think it is completely fair to expect him to draw more fouls, try to block shots, and have some killer instinct.
If the 5 teams at the top of last draft were to pick #1, no way would all 5 have taken Ayton. It wasn't like Zion, or AD or even KAT.
UNPOPULAR OPINION: The draft is an absolute crap-shoot.
Yes, I say this every year. And every year I become more and more convinced that teams who were successful the last couple years simply got lucky.
There isnt anywhere near enough data to accurately determine who will be good and who wont. You can identify what 6-7 areas should be used to evaluate a talent, weigh them equally and simple algorithm will be more successful than any human as it will not have any biases. Even then, a machine isnt going to be any crystal ball.
So the best any team can do is pray for good draft luck.
Better to spend your time, money and effort on selecting good free agents, coaches and trade options.
Of course it's a crap shoot.
The reason it's so important is because the value of having a star player at 50% or less of his true worth is a tremendous advantage in team building and cap management.
Remember what happened when the Suns basically ignored the draft during the early Nash years? If you can't remember, their negligence completely crippled the franchise once the Nash era was finished. We've been paying the price for at least a decade.
Sorry was too busy enjoying all the 50-60 win seasons and deep playoff runs. I’d give up 25 unprotected firsts to have that again.
This is an awful take, saucey.
I really don’t care about how we get to that level of success. I just want another 5-6 years of deep playoff runs. If that means making FA signings (QRich, Nash, Hill) and trades (JRich, JoeJ, Kurt Thomas, Boris Diaw, etc) and sacrificing draft picks, so be it. Picks are so overrated.
We need to make smart additions, regardless of where they come from. We traded for Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw when they were really young players.
UNPOPULAR OPINION: The draft is an absolute crap-shoot.
Yes, I say this every year. And every year I become more and more convinced that teams who were successful the last couple years simply got lucky.
There isnt anywhere near enough data to accurately determine who will be good and who wont. You can identify what 6-7 areas should be used to evaluate a talent, weigh them equally and simple algorithm will be more successful than any human as it will not have any biases. Even then, a machine isnt going to be any crystal ball.
So the best any team can do is pray for good draft luck.
Better to spend your time, money and effort on selecting good free agents, coaches and trade options.
Of course it's a crap shoot.
The reason it's so important is because the value of having a star player at 50% or less of his true worth is a tremendous advantage in team building and cap management.
Remember what happened when the Suns basically ignored the draft during the early Nash years? If you can't remember, their negligence completely crippled the franchise once the Nash era was finished. We've been paying the price for at least a decade.
Sorry was too busy enjoying all the 50-60 win seasons and deep playoff runs. I’d give up 25 unprotected firsts to have that again.
This is an awful take, saucey.
I really don’t care about how we get to that level of success. I just want another 5-6 years of deep playoff runs. If that means making FA signings (QRich, Nash, Hill) and trades (JRich, JoeJ, Kurt Thomas, Boris Diaw, etc) and sacrificing draft picks, so be it. Picks are so overrated.
We need to make smart additions, regardless of where they come from. We traded for Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw when they were really young players.
The idea is that our trading away draft picks helped to cause our current playoff drought...by trading away draft picks again, you may get us into the playoffs for a 5-6 year run, but you may also cause another 10 year drought afterwards. Would that be worth it?
And I don’t think it is what caused this situation alone.
When we made progress we’ve shot ourselves in the foot.
We let Amare go, which at the time most (not all) thought it was the right decision. We set ourselves back several years when we royally wasted our cap space instead. If we would’ve made the right FA acquisitions we could have resteered the ship and been just fine.
When we were finally out of that mess and had Dragic back here with Bledsoe, we had a legitimately positive outlook on the following season. Except we ruined that offseason and signed IT and the events that followed are well known. We are just now recovering from that debacle.
Last edited by specialsauce on Thu May 23, 2019 9:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
So you are not bothered by the 10 year drought we are in, because we had a good 5 years before that?
I would do it all over again if the opportunity presented itself, yes. It is better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all.
Just like I don’t regret the Dbacks mortgaging 10 years to go all in for that 2001 world series
But you don’t have to sabotage your future to be successful. You’re right that we chased after a lot of quick fix decisions that proved to further this drought(summer of 2010, Aldridge, 3 headed PG) but what you’re suggesting could just as easily be another one.
Trading away all our draft picks for a quick fix may work, or it may backfire. Philly may fall apart this summer if butler/Harris/reddick all leave. They went all in on that team and so far have topped out as a 2nd round playoff team. Are you ok if that’s our future?
I just want us to be patient. Ignore the last 9 years. Just focus on what we have now and what the best plan for sustained success is. I think drafting and developing talent are huge to that. We have a lot of talent right now, it’s all young. If we develop it right, continue to feed it through the draft, and make smart veteran additions via trade/free agency, we can have success for a long time.