Suns News: Week 7 11/26-12/2

[INFORMER]

While all this hyperbole is a delight to read, TOO, do you really feel Ayton has been impact player?

[The Bobster]

While all this hyperbole is a delight to read, TOO, do you really feel Ayton has been impact player?

Well, when you look at what else they have in the paint, he probably is. This is the worst group of PF the Suns have had since I've been watching them. When you're so desperate you're using Warren or Ariza there instead of at SF you're screwed.

[SDC]

the modern nba is about having versatile wing players who are between 6-7 to 6-9 who can switch on defense and shoot.

trditional pfs are not that impt anymore.

[SDC]

re sarver selling the team, as long as the buyers are not from seattle...

[ShelC]

I think offense and coaching has kept Ayton from being impactful.

[iLLmatic]

I think offense and coaching has kept Ayton from being impactful.

And a pair of balls.

[Indy]

I think offense and coaching has kept Ayton from being impactful.

And a pair of balls.

[Indy]

While all this hyperbole is a delight to read, TOO, do you really feel Ayton has been impact player?

Well, when you look at what else they have in the paint, he probably is. This is the worst group of PF the Suns have had since I've been watching them. When you're so desperate you're using Warren or Ariza there instead of at SF you're screwed.

I think this is a very fair take. He hasn't been changing the game at all. But how much of that is what we have around him? Who has been the most impactful rookie center in the last 10 years?

If you look at Win Shares, here are the top 10 guys from the last 10 years that were listed as Centers first (might have been a 4/5 combo, but primarily a 5):

Code: Select all

                                                                                                             
                                      Crit Crit Crit Crit Tota Tota  Per Per  Per Per Per Shoo Shoo Shoo Shoo
Rk               Player From   To  Tm  PTS  TRB  BLK   WS    G   GS   MP  FG  FGA  FT FTA  FG% eFG%  FT%  TS%
1    Karl-Anthony Towns 2016 2016 MIN 18.3 10.5  1.7  8.3   82   82 32.0 7.6 14.1 2.7 3.4 .542 .555 .811 .590
2          Nikola Jokic 2016 2016 DEN 10.0  7.0  0.6  6.7   80   55 21.7 3.8  7.5 1.9 2.4 .512 .535 .811 .582
3           Greg Monroe 2011 2011 DET  9.4  7.5  0.6  6.6   80   48 27.8 3.8  6.9 1.8 2.9 .551 .551 .622 .575
4            Marc Gasol 2009 2009 MEM 11.9  7.4  1.1  6.4   82   75 30.7 4.3  8.1 3.4 4.6 .530 .530 .733 .590
5           Brook Lopez 2009 2009 NJN 13.0  8.1  1.8  5.8   82   75 30.5 5.5 10.3 2.1 2.6 .531 .531 .793 .568
6         Mason Plumlee 2014 2014 BRK  7.4  4.4  0.8  4.7   70   22 18.2 2.8  4.3 1.7 2.8 .659 .659 .626 .670
7             Greg Oden 2009 2009 POR  8.9  7.0  1.1  4.6   61   39 21.5 3.2  5.8 2.4 3.7 .564 .564 .637 .599
8        Andre Drummond 2013 2013 DET  7.9  7.6  1.6  4.5   60   10 20.7 3.5  5.7 1.0 2.7 .608 .610 .371 .578
9           Bam Adebayo 2018 2018 MIA  6.9  5.5  0.6  4.2   69   19 19.8 2.5  4.9 1.9 2.6 .512 .512 .721 .570
10         Nerlens Noel 2015 2015 PHI  9.9  8.1  1.9  4.0   75   71 30.8 4.0  8.7 1.9 3.1 .462 .462 .609 .493

Which of these guys, in their rookie year, would have been more impactful in these first 25 games than Ayton? I am not sure any would have, on this team.

By the way, if you project Ayton's first 25 games will stay the same the rest of the year, he would rank 2nd on this list behind KAT for win shares in their first season.

[Split T]

Not sure if this has been posted, but a great article.

[Mori Chu]

Thanks for posting that article. I found their comparison to the Heat wings particularly compelling:

The Heat are a perfect example of how skill set determines a young player’s role, irrespective of draft hype. They drafted two wings in 2015: Justise Winslow (no. 10 overall) and Josh Richardson (no. 40 overall). Winslow was a one-and-done star at Duke who could do everything but shoot. Richardson, a four-year player at Tennessee, was seen as a 3-and-D prospect with a low ceiling. Winslow still can’t shoot four years later, while Richardson has gone from a good shooter to a great one (39.9 percent from 3 on 6.9 attempts per game) and turned himself into a more well-rounded player in the process. Richardson is a two-way star who can play on or off the ball, while Winslow is stuck in a sixth-man role to limit the damage his poor shooting inflicts on his own team.

[Indy]

Thanks for posting that article. I found their comparison to the Heat wings particularly compelling:

The Heat are a perfect example of how skill set determines a young player’s role, irrespective of draft hype. They drafted two wings in 2015: Justise Winslow (no. 10 overall) and Josh Richardson (no. 40 overall). Winslow was a one-and-done star at Duke who could do everything but shoot. Richardson, a four-year player at Tennessee, was seen as a 3-and-D prospect with a low ceiling. Winslow still can’t shoot four years later, while Richardson has gone from a good shooter to a great one (39.9 percent from 3 on 6.9 attempts per game) and turned himself into a more well-rounded player in the process. Richardson is a two-way star who can play on or off the ball, while Winslow is stuck in a sixth-man role to limit the damage his poor shooting inflicts on his own team.

I get what you are saying, but we would be extremely lucky if Josh develops into a 6th man on a middling team... that is how far off he has been. And he was taken #4. Huge difference between 4 and 10.

[Split T]

Ya, I thought Jackson would do enough other stuff to make up for his lack of shooting, but it’s becoming obvious that if you can’t shoot and don’t have another elite skill, you’re gonna struggle to succeed. Jackson does quite a few things well,but nothing at an elite level. He really needs to work on his shooting and playmaking and that will open up a lot of opportunities for his scoring. Would be really nice if he started defending like he was supposed to.

[Ring_Wanted]

Ya, I thought Jackson would do enough other stuff to make up for his lack of shooting, but it’s becoming obvious that if you can’t shoot and don’t have another elite skill, you’re gonna struggle to succeed. Jackson does quite a few things well,but nothing at an elite level. He really needs to work on his shooting and playmaking and that will open up a lot of opportunities for his scoring. Would be really nice if he started defending like he was supposed to.

If he played under control and defended he'd be a nice Igg-lite role player. But he just can't finish or shoot. And for one reason or another he won't be a plus defender either. Won't extend on what we should have done with him over the offseason...

[TOO]

While all this hyperbole is a delight to read, TOO, do you really feel Ayton has been impact player?

No, I think he's been about as advertised, mostly empty stats, the only impact I saw was the 1st couple of games when defenses sagged on him because they thought he was gonna do something in the post. Much like he showed ag Arizona, he has little to no post game or offensive moveset, its as if he has no idea what to do with the ball once he has it aside from passing or shooting. I wanted to draft Doncic and was willing to max Capela to shore up the 5 in the off-season, so far I wish we had gone that route, but we didn't. So I'm gonna hope for the best that Ayton can really grow on both ends of the court because this franchise needs it. At least I don't hate the Ayton pick as much as I did with Jackson and the Bust Towers.

[Indy]

While all this hyperbole is a delight to read, TOO, do you really feel Ayton has been impact player?

No, I think he's been about as advertised, mostly empty stats, the only impact I saw was the 1st couple of games when defenses sagged on him because they thought he was gonna do something in the post. Much like he showed ag Arizona, he has little to no post game or offensive moveset, its as if he has no idea what to do with the ball once he has it aside from passing or shooting. I wanted to draft Doncic and was willing to max Capela to shore up the 5 in the off-season, so far I wish we had gone that route, but we didn't. So I'm gonna hope for the best that Ayton can really grow on both ends of the court because this franchise needs it. At least I don't hate the Ayton pick as much as I did with Jackson and the Bust Towers.

I think we should still call them the Twin Towers, but specify it is post 9/11. Duncan and Robinson are the pre 9/11 twin towers.

[Mori Chu]

If he would just be more conservative in his shot selection, and maybe push himself a little harder on D, I actually think Josh Jackson would be a great contributor. But he takes too many pull-up jumpers and 3s that clang off the rim. He should be driving and kicking 80% of those. Shoot when you're wide open and have your feet set, and even then, only sometimes. And never let your man get past you on defense, not ever. That's how you stay on the court.

As crappy as Bender has been, at least when he's out there he moves his feet and stays between his man and the basket. He doesn't take any plays off.

[ShelC]

I know Jackson's been frustrating and has holes in his game, but I'm still a fan. I think he's got a lot of upside still, not so much with his shooting, but his dribble penetration and defense. I like how he's handle the ball and made plays with the 2nd unit off the bench. And even as a starter last night he gave us 14pts on 6-9FGs with 7 boards, 3 assists and 3 steals.

[INFORMER]

Josh Jackson's struggles remind me of Joe Johnson's.

[INFORMER]

was willing to max Capela to shore up the 5 in the off-season

Capela has been awesome, but even in hindsight I still couldn't bring myself to max him out. Houston got him on the deal he should have, but of course the Suns would have had to offer more.

[TOO]

While all this hyperbole is a delight to read, TOO, do you really feel Ayton has been impact player?

No, I think he's been about as advertised, mostly empty stats, the only impact I saw was the 1st couple of games when defenses sagged on him because they thought he was gonna do something in the post. Much like he showed ag Arizona, he has little to no post game or offensive moveset, its as if he has no idea what to do with the ball once he has it aside from passing or shooting. I wanted to draft Doncic and was willing to max Capela to shore up the 5 in the off-season, so far I wish we had gone that route, but we didn't. So I'm gonna hope for the best that Ayton can really grow on both ends of the court because this franchise needs it. At least I don't hate the Ayton pick as much as I did with Jackson and the Bust Towers.

I think we should still call them the Twin Towers, but specify it is post 9/11. Duncan and Robinson are the pre 9/11 twin towers.