Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

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ShelC
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by ShelC »

TJ wasn't a guy reliant on PGs setting him up. I also think he may have mailed it in too on those losing teams.

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Indy
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Indy »

ShelC wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:26 am
TJ wasn't a guy reliant on PGs setting him up. I also think he may have mailed it in too on those losing teams.
I think the last part is a combination of our team actively tanking, and then the complacency that sets in when your entire organization is happier when you lose so that future teams (i.e. not you) can get better.

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O_Gardino
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by O_Gardino »

ShelC wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:16 am
Article of Saric from a Sixers fan perspective:

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2019 ... ixers-fans
Thanks for sharing.

That seems like a fair take on Saric. I don't think a team that replaces him with Tobais Harris is going to miss him a ton, but I do think his shooting, fire, and awareness will be a big help to us. The defensive pairing with Aytron is a concern. I hope we pick up a better help defender some time during the season to throw another look out there.

My only argument with the piece is where the gentleman from Philadelphia says Saric can't be a starter on a championship team. Obvs it depends on how the team is constructed, but I think he could be a big part of a contender. He has that level of skill and competitiveness. The Raptors showed that good team construction and a little luck are worth more than running out a team with 4 all-stars who don't fit together.
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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by In2ition »

"When we all think alike, nobody is thinking" - Walter Lippmann
"Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them." ~ Frederick Douglass

Bucktastic365
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Bucktastic365 »

In2ition wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:20 pm


Looking nice.

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Shabazz
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Shabazz »

Yeah, but Jeremy Lin.

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Aztec Sunsfan
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Aztec Sunsfan »

ShelC wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:26 am
TJ wasn't a guy reliant on PGs setting him up. I also think he may have mailed it in too on those losing teams.
He wasn’t, but a true playmaker would have taken advantage of the other aspects of his game I talked about and turn hin into a lethal weapon.

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Indy
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Indy »

Shabazz wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:21 pm
Yeah, but Jeremy Lin.
9/10

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3rdside
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by 3rdside »

I missed a filter on BBallRef, so here's the summary:

Aim: To assess TJ Warren's possible output post-trade based on statistics of other "good players who were injury prone", defined as:

- Played a minimum 5 seasons since the 82 game season began in 1967-68
- Total games played during first 5 seasons <= 300
- Points per game during first 5 seasons >= 12

Summary:

---------First 5 Seasons Ave.----Seasons after First 5 Ave.-------Change
GP ---------54.2 ------------------------ 55.2---------------------------1.9%
GS ---------34.5--------------------------37.0---------------------------7.2%
MPG -------29.9--------------------------27.5--------------------------(8.1%)
PPG--------15.0--------------------------12.9--------------------------(13.6%)
FG%--------0.470----------------------- 0.440--------------------------(6.3%)

Average career length after First 5 Seasons for retired players only = 4.9yrs

Sample Size - 40
Active Players - 13
Exclusions - Roy Tarpley > substance abuse, John Williams 1 season > suspended as overweight

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3rdside
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by 3rdside »

Comments:

- The 13 active players (~1/3 the sample size) arrived in the NBA up to 11 seasons ago (~1/5 the total seasons) suggesting players taking more time off for injury than they used to as precaution.

- Khris Middleton (2yrs) and Paul George (4yrs) - a very small sample size - are doing better across the board in the years after their first 5 so the precaution appears to be paying off.
Last edited by 3rdside on Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

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3rdside
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by 3rdside »

The data:

Player-Rookie Year-No. of 82 game of Seasons*5-Ave GP/Season-Ave.GS/Season-MPG-PTS-FG%-No. Seasons Since 1st 5-Ave. GP/Season-Ave.GS/Season- MPG-PTS-FG%
T.J. Warren 2015 5 52 33 27.7 14.4 0.497 - - - - - -
Jabari Parker 2015 5 49 33 29.7 15.1 0.491 - - - - - -
Zach LaVine 2015 5 59 41 29.9 16.1 0.446 - - - - - -
Clint Capela 2015 5 59 47 25.1 12.0 0.635 - - - - - -
Robert Covington 2014 5 58 49 29.4 12.7 0.399 1 35 35 34.4 13.3 0.431
Khris Middleton 2013 5 59 45 30.6 13.8 0.450 2 80 80 33.8 19.2 0.454
Paul George 2011 5 58 49 31.5 15.2 0.428 4 78 78 36.1 24.2 0.437
Nikola Peković 2011 5 52 38 25.4 12.9 0.521 1 12 3 13.0 4.5 0.380
Jordan Crawford 2011 5 55 20 24.6 12.3 0.411 3 8 0 17.0 10.4 0.463
Kevin Love 2009 5 57 41 31.8 17.3 0.449 6 62 62 31.4 18.7 0.430
Derrick Rose 2009 5 58 58 36.6 20.8 0.460 6 45 35 28.3 15.7 0.429
Danilo Gallinari 2009 5 57 49 31.3 14.5 0.419 6 44 39 31.0 17.0 0.424
Eric Gordon 2009 5 49 46 34.8 18.0 0.443 6 64 44 32.0 15.7 0.418
Wilson Chandler 2008 5 52 41 31.9 13.8 0.449 7 54 39 28.9 12.0 0.439
Monta Ellis 2006 5 59 43 34.2 18.1 0.476 7 77 71 35.1 17.7 0.438
Bonzi Wells 1999 5 59 36 26.7 13.3 0.479 5 59 19 24.5 10.6 0.437
Michael Dickerson 1999 5 42 41 35.3 15.4 0.432 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.000
Matt Harpring 1999 5 54 45 29.3 12.5 0.477 6 66 20 25.3 11.2 0.481
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 1998 5 51 43 27.3 14.1 0.467 9 74 66 27.3 12.9 0.476
Brian Grant 1995 5 58 49 30.0 12.8 0.499 7 66 48 25.3 8.2 0.475
Chris Webber 1994 5 58 57 37.1 20.0 0.512 10 54 54 35.1 19.3 0.462
Jamal Mashburn 1994 5 59 54 35.5 18.4 0.414 6 53 52 38.5 19.4 0.422
LaPhonso Ellis 1993 5 53 48 32.9 15.4 0.474 6 60 20 24.5 9.1 0.424
Don MacLean 1993 5 54 20 22.5 12.0 0.461 4 13 3 11.2 4.4 0.341
Dennis Scott 1991 5 60 36 28.5 14.6 0.422 5 66 40 27.6 10.6 0.404
Šarūnas Marčiulionis 1990 5 59 6 23.3 13.5 0.518 3 25 6 12.6 8.8 0.443
Pervis Ellison 1990 5 54 38 30.1 13.2 0.513 7 29 8 14.7 3.4 0.446
Rex Chapman 1989 5 56 40 28.3 15.4 0.431 7 55 42 30.1 13.8 0.420
Reggie Williams 1988 5 60 35 24.8 12.7 0.438 5 60 44 25.5 10.8 0.416
Ron Harper 1987 5 59 57 35.6 19.8 0.462 10 71 68 28.9 11.1 0.433
Johnny Dawkins 1987 5 53 38 30.2 13.5 0.471 4 70 28 24.5 8.5 0.439
John Williams 1987 5 59 15 27.9 12.4 0.459 3 47 5 18.4 5.0 0.406
Roy Tarpley 1987 5 45 11 27.2 12.6 0.485 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.000
Clark Kellogg 1983 5 52 48 32.7 18.9 0.497 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.000
Derek Smith 1983 5 46 30 26.9 15.4 0.511 4 44 16 18.1 8.2 0.418
Toby Knight 1978 5 57 0 25.9 12.9 0.519 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.000
Bill Walton 1975 5 45 0 33.0 16.9 0.510 8 32 15 17.4 10.1 0.509
Marvin Barnes 1975 5 59 0 30.5 16.8 0.482 1 20 0 14.4 3.2 0.400
Larry Cannon 1970 5 43 0 28.8 16.6 0.411 2 11 0 13.2 4.3 0.408
Steve Mix 1970 5 38 0 30.7 12.6 0.470 9 72 2 23.2 10.5 0.508

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jonh
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by jonh »

Something key that is missing in this analyses is that the Suns have not played a meaningful game after the all-star break in years--I would guess that TJ would be more likely to play more games that had playoff implications.

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Indy
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Indy »

3rdside wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:27 am
jonh wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:33 am
Something key that is missing in this analyses is that the Suns have not played a meaningful game after the all-star break in years--I would guess that TJ would be more likely to play more games that had playoff implications.
Yep. And that the 1998 and 2011 lockouts made those seasons a lot shorter, which could affect the way you estimated games played by injury prone players.

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3rdside
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by 3rdside »

Indy wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:45 am
3rdside wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:27 am
jonh wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:33 am
Something key that is missing in this analyses is that the Suns have not played a meaningful game after the all-star break in years--I would guess that TJ would be more likely to play more games that had playoff implications.
Yep. And that the 1998 and 2011 lockouts made those seasons a lot shorter, which could affect the way you estimated games played by injury prone players.
Lockout seasons not accounted for, cheers, but will bring more players than less in so not a critical miss I don't think

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3rdside
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by 3rdside »

jonh wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:33 am
Something key that is missing in this analyses is that the Suns have not played a meaningful game after the all-star break in years--I would guess that TJ would be more likely to play more games that had playoff implications.
My guess is that as he missed ~50% of his first two seasons and ~25% of his next two before missing ~50% of his last one, the guy has issues serious enough to believe he's injury prone. If he played all 82 games last season he still would have made the list.

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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by bajanguy008 »

https://twitter.com/esidery/status/1157160740303732736

SUNS Fan from the Land of Sun, Sea and Sand ;)

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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by O_Gardino »

We've got 2 more months of offseason, folks.
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Superbone
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Superbone »

O_Gardino wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:07 am
We've got 2 more months of offseason, folks.
You don't have to rub it Lin.
"Be Legendary."

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The Bobster
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by The Bobster »

3rdside -

Capela also played 38 games in the D-League and Covington also played 42 games in the D-League their rookie seasons, so I probably wouldn't include them.

Marvin Barnes missed part of the 1976-77 because he was in prison for a probation violation, and he also had a serious substance abuse problem, so I would drop him too.

And some of the player on the list just weren't very good at certain points during their first five seasons - Derek Smith, Michael Dickerson, Jordan Crawford - so that skews their games played totals.

Deleting these players still would leave you with 34, which I think is still a large enough sample.
Author of The Basketball Draft Fact Book: A History of Professional Basketball's College Drafts
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3rdside
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by 3rdside »

Yeah I need to drop the time period after 3 years as well for a better comparison as that’s how long is left on his contract.

But I’m at work - beer in hand at least - so it’s going to have to wait till tomorrow.


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