Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Discussion of the league and of our favorite team.
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ShelC
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by ShelC » Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:54 am


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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by In2ition » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:13 am

https://theathletic.com/1120091/2019/08 ... dailyemail

Aldridge: How much better is your team since its season ended? Here’s how I rank them

The conceit is simple: rank how all 30 teams have done since the end of their respective seasons, looking at everything, from how they drafted to what trades they made, to significant free-agent signings and to whether they participated in free agency much at all. I looked at coaching changes, new GMs, new buildings that could generate significantly more revenue going forward, or practice facilities that are now online. I then decided which ones I liked the most.

There are, however, ground rules. Here’s what these rankings ARE NOT:

• A predicted order of finish for next season.

I do not expect the Grizzlies, for example, to have a better record than the Bucks, just because I thought they had a better offseason. Milwaukee has a better team than Memphis, and thus didn’t have as much to do to improve it as the Grizzlies had to do. These are not “power rankings” as you have come to understand those; I do not believe the Pelicans, right now, are better than the Celtics. This is just one person’s opinion about offseason moves — offseason moves only. Accordingly:

• If your team is ranked in the top 10 here, it doesn’t mean I love your team.

• If your team is ranked in the bottom 10 here, it doesn’t mean I hate your team.

It’s an opinion that seeks to answer a question: Is the team better now than at the end of last season? The ranking reflects the belief on whether, and how much, that is so. (I liked certain guys who were in the draft more than others, so if your team took them, I probably weighed it more positively. Doesn’t mean I’m right.)

What plays into the rankings

• This isn’t science. It’s an educated guess, weighing the impact both of the draft and free agency, but also assessing whether teams got value in their free-agent signings. Overpaying the right player is as much a sin as signing the wrong player. A good new coach can coax some more wins out of a roster. But if a team’s players don’t fit the system their team uses, the best Xs and Os on earth don’t matter.

• Teams that are rebuilding obviously have different priorities than teams making a championship push. That’s factored in. So Utah, for example, gets credit not only for adding a free agent like Bojan Bogdanovic, but also for the fit Bogdanovic will have with its existing players.

A rebuilding team with a lot of cap space, like Phoenix, can make a lot of moves, but do they make sense in service to the team’s star player, Devin Booker? And a contending team that shows it’s willing to go deep into the luxury tax —which most teams try to avoid — to keep winning has to be commended, and its rankings reflect that commendation.

• Continuity matters here as well. The most successful teams usually not only identify a core group of players, but also keep it together for a while, finding that sweet spot: everyone doesn’t get a max contract, but most get paid well enough to keep the train moving down the tracks.

Meanwhile, it may make sense for other teams to keep their powder dry for another day. That reflects both good roster construction and good financial management — and, again, is rewarded. Everyone has to spend, but you still have to manage your money wisely.

So, here we go.

Salary numbers, with a couple of exceptions, come from Spotrac, which stays on top of this stuff as well as anyone east of Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders. Draft pick details from both Spotrac and Real GM.

24. PHOENIX SUNS
2018-19 RECORD: 19-63; did not make playoffs.

ADDED: Head Coach Monty Williams; G Ricky Rubio (three years, $51M); F Frank Kaminsky (two years, $9.7M); F Cheick Diallo (one year, $1.67M); C Aron Baynes (acquired from Boston); F Dario Saric (acquired from Minnesota); G Jevon Carter (acquired from Memphis); F Cam Johnson (first round, 11th pick overall); G Ty Jerome (first round, 24th pick overall); G Jalen Lecque (undrafted free agent); F Tariq Owens (undrafted free agent); 2020 second-round pick (from either Golden State or Houston); 2020 second-round pick (acquired from Utah); 2023 second-round pick (more favorable of Dallas/Miami).

LOST: Former coach Igor Kokoskov: F T.J. Warren (traded to Indiana); F Josh Jackson (traded to Memphis); F Troy Daniels (signed with Lakers); F Dragan Bender (rights renounced); G Kyle Korver (waived); 2020 second-round pick (traded to Memphis); 2021 second-round pick (to Memphis or Brooklyn).

RETAINED: F Kelly Oubre, Jr. (two years, $30M).

THE KEY MAN: Rubio. It’s unfair to ask the 28-year-old to come in and completely fix the Suns’ prolific shooting woes — dead last in the league last season in three-point shooting (.329), 28th in made threes per game (9.6) and Offensive Efficiency (103.6) and 24th in Effective Field Goal percentage (.514).

The problem is that Rubio hasn’t been a great shooter himself from deep throughout his career — his .311 percentage behind the arc last season was a significant drop off from his career-high .352 the season before. But he has always been a willing passer. He’ll have to be incredible for Phoenix to significantly improve on those dismal numbers going forward.

THE SKINNY: There were bleeding scalps around the Association, such was the head scratching that went on in assessing what Phoenix did this offseason. But the bottom line was this: no one’s coming to the Valley of the Sun in free agency right now, so it made no sense to keep rolling over cap room and calling that progress, given the franchise’s notable first-round whiffs of late.

Jackson and Bender followed Marquise Chriss out of town, leaving the Suns at square one. But instead of staying at No. 6 in the first round, Phoenix moved back and took another chance, this one on Johnson, who can shoot it but whose multiple surgeries the last few years red-flagged him to multiple teams in the draft. You can both understand yet not be excited about what the Suns are doing, though, and as they’re in the West, and still can’t get free agents interested, it’s hard to see this improving any time soon, even under Williams, who got a raw deal the last time he was a head coach, in New Orleans.
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by In2ition » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:17 am

Here is another national writer that doesn't seem to think that they got better. It's kind of amazing to me, how you can't see how this team isn't drastically improved, but he seems to think that long term has been sacrificed somehow. I just keep adding names to my list, but maybe I am completely wrong about it.
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Superbone
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Superbone » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:26 am

In2ition wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:17 am
Here is another national writer that doesn't seem to think that they got better. It's kind of amazing to me, how you can't see how this team isn't drastically improved, but he seems to think that long term has been sacrificed somehow. I just keep adding names to my list, but maybe I am completely wrong about it.
I don’t think you’re wrong but I’m biased. We’ll see. And how can he add Korver to the Lost list when we never had him last season?
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing.

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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by In2ition » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:32 am

Superbone wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:26 am
In2ition wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:17 am
Here is another national writer that doesn't seem to think that they got better. It's kind of amazing to me, how you can't see how this team isn't drastically improved, but he seems to think that long term has been sacrificed somehow. I just keep adding names to my list, but maybe I am completely wrong about it.
I don’t think you’re wrong but I’m biased. We’ll see. And how can he add Korver to the Lost list when we never had him last season?
Haha, that's a good point that I totally missed. I even had to edit his piece on the Suns as one of the added for him was "Ty Warren" instead of "Ty Jerome". Why didn't he add Melton, Holmes or Crawford as a loss?
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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ShelC
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by ShelC » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:47 am

Nice surface level take from Aldridge, who's barely been relevant for about 15 years.

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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by In2ition » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:48 am

In2ition wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:13 am
A rebuilding team with a lot of cap space, like Phoenix, can make a lot of moves, but do they make sense in service to the team’s star player, Devin Booker?
I mean, did they really have a lot of cap space going into the summer?
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by In2ition » Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:08 am

In2ition wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:32 am
Superbone wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:26 am
In2ition wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:17 am
Here is another national writer that doesn't seem to think that they got better. It's kind of amazing to me, how you can't see how this team isn't drastically improved, but he seems to think that long term has been sacrificed somehow. I just keep adding names to my list, but maybe I am completely wrong about it.
I don’t think you’re wrong but I’m biased. We’ll see. And how can he add Korver to the Lost list when we never had him last season?
Haha, that's a good point that I totally missed. I even had to edit his piece on the Suns as one of the added for him was "Ty Warren" instead of "Ty Jerome". Why didn't he add Melton, Holmes or Crawford as a loss?
Damn, how could I forget Fredette or Spalding?
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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ShelC
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by ShelC » Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:20 am

Also the fact that he points out last year's shooting and then says Rubio won't help it because of his own poor shooting leaves out that Rubio should be getting guys better looks than our trash PGs last year. And the FA signings of Saric and Kaminsky, plus Cam and Ty being drafted, specifically addressed the lack of shooting on last year's roster. Not to mention the fact that Bridges should see more time, Oubre is at least respectable as a shooter and Booker should be getting easier looks in catch and shoot situations (because of Rubio).
Last edited by ShelC on Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Superbone
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Superbone » Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:26 am

We're doing a great job of exposing his surface level take.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing.

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ShelC
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by ShelC » Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:29 am

We're going WCFs next year boys. I can feel it.

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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by In2ition » Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:35 am

Cheese and Rice! That's the spirit! Haha
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Marty [Mori Chu]
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Marty [Mori Chu] » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:18 am

Guys, David Aldridge is always on target with his Suns takes. For example, when he wrote that the Suns biffed the 2002 draft by taking Amare Stoudemire instead of that stud Jared Jeffries, time did prove him right. All Suns fans should remember that when Jeffries gives his HOF speech.

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Cap
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Cap » Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:46 pm

ShelC wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:29 am
We're going WCFs next year boys. I can feel it.
I hear there’s going to be a change in format. Instead of playing each other, all the 2019-20 teams will play all their games against their 2018-19 versions. We’re going to kick butt.

Any wonder Rubio wanted to sign here? He gets to go out and play against Canaan, Melton and Okobo every game.
JJ will be better than KP when all is said and done [in 2020]. Mark it. — AIG, with Indy betting against

My [2019-20] prediction is better than mid 30s... mark it down! — Superbone

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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by In2ition » Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:09 am

"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Wormwood
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Wormwood » Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:53 am

Let's be honest; pretty much the only people who thought the Suns had a good offseason are Suns fans. Pretty much all the pundits reactions can be summed up as:



Here's my best case / worst case / median case scenarios for the Suns this year.

Best Case: Rubio's passing opens everything up for the team, giving lots of wide open looks to Saric, Oubre, Cam Johnson, Bridges, Kaminsky, Ty Jerome, etc. Jerome and Johnson prove to be dead eye three point shooters, and Bridges improves greatly. When Rubio is off the court, Jerome and Booker split duties, and additional spacing from the PG position makes it even better on offense. Booker takes a step up on defense because he doesn't have to spend all his energy on offense with Rubio there. Ayton is able to string together more really solid defensive stretches using his length, speed, strength, and improved footwork to be an above average defender. Oubre, Bridges, and Rubio are a nightmare lineup on defense for other teams, generating a lot of tipped balls and fast breaks. Everyone improves as hoped for, and they "click" together in a way no one quite saw coming. SUns win almost 50 games, and squeak into the playoffs.

Worst Case: Opposing teams sag off of Rubio, double on Booker or Ayton. Rubio isn't able to capitalize on wide open shots, (i.e. shoots like he did last year), and because of the constant doubling he can't really get the ball to Ayton any better than our PGs did last year. The result is Rubio being only a marginal improvement over Melton. Ayton and Booker don't step up on defense, and Saric / Kaminsky provide neither defense nor rebounding. Oubre slacks off when he's not playing for a contract, and Bridges isn't getting enough open looks to improve his 3 point shot. Johnson and Jerome prove to be absolutely hopeless on defense, and their lack of athleticism means they don't find way to get off shots either. As a result, defense is as bad (or worse) than last year, and the offense turns right back into Booker playing hero ball because Rubio is useless, Ayton is always double teamed, and the other guys aren't hitting enough 3's to clear things out. In short, we're as bad as last year, but maybe even worse without the defensive efforts of Holmes and the offensive efficiency (3 point shooting) of TJ Warren. Suns shut Booker and others down after the all star break, and hope that they can address some of these issues with the draft and $17M in cap space. They end up with 23 wins, and the second worst record in the league again. Suns realize RUbio / Saric / Kaminsky pieces are all bad fits, and they're right back where they started: mostly cap locked, 6th pick in the draft, with guys we can't pay for people to take off our hands.

Median Case: Rubio gets the team a few more open looks, but is mostly dared to shoot the ball (and fails to put it in). Team frequently struggles to move the ball as a result of Rubio being unable to hit the three. Booker improves a little on defense, but not much. Suns defense and rebounding, which starts with our PFs and Cs, remains pretty bad except for when Baynes is on the court (and when he is, the offense really suffers). Ty Jerome sees a little time, but most of it goes to Tyler Johnson, who remains a $20 sub-replacement player, who plays at a mid-tier back up level as he pretty much always has. There are moments when it clicks, moments when it rains threes, but far more where matador defense, bad rebounding and hero ball on offense make you want to murder your TV. Still, it's a noticeable improvement from last year, and we end up right where Vegas thinks we will: 28 wins and last in the west.

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Shabazz
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Shabazz » Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:17 pm

The two swing skills for this team will be Rubio's shooting and Ayton's defense.
Point Guard Needed. Apply here.

Drewsprocket
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Drewsprocket » Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:33 pm

Having TJ around would allow for the team to have the depth to sit Rubio in the event his shot isn’t falling and teams are able to exploit that. I don’t think it will be pervasive but something that good teams will run at us. The suns have shown to be a good team with TJ and Oubre playing alongside Book for a short stint. Kidd wasn’t a great shooter with the suns either. I think Rubio will make it work. His role in Phx wont be the same as with Utah with DM being so ball dominant.

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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by In2ition » Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:30 pm

Wormwood wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:53 am
Let's be honest; pretty much the only people who thought the Suns had a good offseason are Suns fans. Pretty much all the pundits reactions can be summed up as:

Best Case: Almost 50 wins
Worst Case: 23 wins
Median Case: 28 wins
Does this look like an odd range to anyone else?
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Wormwood
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Re: Suns News: 2019 Off-Season

Post by Wormwood » Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:40 pm

The distribution is skewed. That happens sometimes naturally. Basically, what's the least I can imagine winning, what's the absolute most if everything goes perfect, and what's the over under (50-50 either way).

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