Phx-Suns.Net

With the Game of Thrones Dead Pools out there, and the comic book character making the concept of a deadpool a household item, I'm posting a poll to ask which people won't be back next season. You can vote for as many as you like.

Only one I’m pretty sure will be here is Oubre. One of Melton and okobo will probably be back, but not both.

I think they'll keep Melton around. Okobo just didn't show me enough this past year. I wish they'd keep Bender but they don't seem to value him much. I thought Bendy showed a lot at the end of this season; I wish they'd at least see if he'd be willing to stay on a 1-2 year deal for cheap. Give the guy a chance. You just know that if we let him go, the Spurs will sign him for $3.5m/yr and he'll become a valuable rotation player for them. It's a mortal lock.

Josh Jackson is probably gone after his recent run-in with the law.

It seems like Warren is also going to be traded, less because he's offended us and more because we would need his salary and talent to help us complete any trade we're interested in. It feels like we're going to make some kind of move this offseason, and he'd almost have to be part of it.

They had better find a way to get Holmes to stay. He was great last year, exactly the kind of guy you want on a young team like this.

I wouldn't hate bringing Crawford back, but he's not part of the long-term plan.

I voted for everyone except Kelly and Melton.

Indy wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 12:07 pm

I voted for everyone except Kelly and Melton.

Almost the same. I had Holmes staying, but I was iffy. He’s unrestricted and might go elsewhere.

I think Booker is the only guy who's 100% guaranteed to be on the roster. Ayton is pretty close behind, maybe 99%.

I'm genuinely excited to see what Jones and Williams will do with the roster this summer. I'm not expecting them to make all the moves in one summer, but we should at least see some semblance of a direction besides just acquiring a collection of assets.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 10:51 am

I think they'll keep Melton around. Okobo just didn't show me enough this past year. I wish they'd keep Bender but they don't seem to value him much. I thought Bendy showed a lot at the end of this season; I wish they'd at least see if he'd be willing to stay on a 1-2 year deal for cheap. Give the guy a chance. You just know that if we let him go, the Spurs will sign him for $3.5m/yr and he'll become a valuable rotation player for them. It's a mortal lock.

Josh Jackson is probably gone after his recent run-in with the law.

It seems like Warren is also going to be traded, less because he's offended us and more because we would need his salary and talent to help us complete any trade we're interested in. It feels like we're going to make some kind of move this offseason, and he'd almost have to be part of it.

They had better find a way to get Holmes to stay. He was great last year, exactly the kind of guy you want on a young team like this.

I wouldn't hate bringing Crawford back, but he's not part of the long-term plan.

Okobo isn’t far off being an nba player. He’s got the tools just needs to develop behind a good pg and have an actual system to play in. Okobo is the type of player Coach Pop turns into a sixth man - possibly starter. Okobo gets in the lane, hits from range, good handles but hes not a floor general —yet.

I picked Okobo to stay over Melton as I don't think both will be here next season but they both bring different things to the table. I just think Okobo might have the chance to be the better player in the long run.

Split T wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 2:27 pm

Indy wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 12:07 pm

I voted for everyone except Kelly and Melton.

Almost the same. I had Holmes staying, but I was iffy. He’s unrestricted and might go elsewhere.

I would like him to stay, but I don't think we are going to pursue him. I think we are going to blow our load at midnight with Oubre without making another move right away while we look for a trade. Then once we figure it all out, we won't have cap space or he will be gone already. We need players that play hard and with a chip. He does that. Too many other guys on this team just talk that way.

Indy wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 7:14 pm

Split T wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 2:27 pm

Indy wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 12:07 pm

I voted for everyone except Kelly and Melton.

Almost the same. I had Holmes staying, but I was iffy. He’s unrestricted and might go elsewhere.

I would like him to stay, but I don't think we are going to pursue him. I think we are going to blow our load at midnight with Oubre without making another move right away while we look for a trade. Then once we figure it all out, we won't have cap space or he will be gone already. We need players that play hard and with a chip. He does that. Too many other guys on this team just talk that way.

It only costs us about 800k to keep his hold on the books. If we want him and he wants to be here, he can wait around until after we sign free agents and still get paid. We can even have an agreement in place. Just need to wait to sign him until last. I just wonder if he’ll look elsewhere as he will only see his minutes trend down as Ayton establishes himself in the NBA.

Split T wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 7:30 pm

Indy wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 7:14 pm

Split T wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 2:27 pm

Indy wrote: ↑

Tue May 21, 2019 12:07 pm

I voted for everyone except Kelly and Melton.

Almost the same. I had Holmes staying, but I was iffy. He’s unrestricted and might go elsewhere.

I would like him to stay, but I don't think we are going to pursue him. I think we are going to blow our load at midnight with Oubre without making another move right away while we look for a trade. Then once we figure it all out, we won't have cap space or he will be gone already. We need players that play hard and with a chip. He does that. Too many other guys on this team just talk that way.

It only costs us about 800k to keep his hold on the books. If we want him and he wants to be here, he can wait around until after we sign free agents and still get paid. We can even have an agreement in place. Just need to wait to sign him until last. I just wonder if he’ll look elsewhere as he will only see his minutes trend down as Ayton establishes himself in the NBA.

I was originally curious about Monty's take on that, since he coached him in Philly. But then I realized he joined Philly after Holmes left.

I tend to think almost everyone on here is gone. With the craptacular #6 pick, we're not going to be able to address either of our biggest needs (PG or PF). We don't have enough cap space to do much of anything. So, we're going to have to trade players. We're also going to let a lot of players go, considering we have WAY too many wings, and way too many awful PGs (especially since we're probably drafting either Coby White or Darius Garland).

So, without further ado, my dead pool list.

Okobo. Either Melton or Okobo is gone, and I'm thinking Okobo. He showed less, and was AWFUL. (Or, at least, more awful than Melton who was almost as awful). We're probably acquiring a PG in trade, probably drafting one, and 3rd string PGs are easy to come by. SO... gone.

Melton. 3rd string PG on a cheap contract. I think he gets kept.

Oubre Jr. will probably be re-signed. Not many people want to play in Phoenix. So, we'll keep the weirdo.

Bender is gone. 5th worst RPM in the league. We could bring back Alec Peters or Alan Williams on a min contract and do significantly better.

Crawford is gone. 4th worst RPM in the league. Easily replaceable with someone better.

Daniels is gone. He played better than Crawford, saw fewer minutes. Plus, we have eleventy-kajillion people playing SG anyway. No incentive for him to stay.

Holmes will be re-signed. No one steals from the worst team in the league, and he's the sort of high energy back up C you need to play behind Ayton. One of the ONLY players on the team with a positive RPM.

Warren is gone. Great contract for a guy who scores 20 ppg and hits threes at a 40% clip. Prime trade bait for a team looking for firepower at wing. Plus, Warren acts like he really doesn't want to be here. One of the few players with trade value as we hunt for a PG. Gone.

Johnson. He's not a PG or a distributor, and he's a terrible SG (he can't shoot). He'd be a back up PG and back up SG at best. If we draft White or Garland and keep them, he's gone because he has one great piece of value: a big expiring contract to help with another team's cap situation in 2020. If we want to trade for a big name PG with a big contract, Johnson and Warren are the two big pieces to make salaries match. We're in win now mode, and $20M in cap space for a player who rides the bench only hurts us. So... gone.

Jackson. OMFG so gone. Maybe he'll be part of trade. Maybe he'll be waived. But so far, he's been a disaster on and off the court. (476th out of 514 in RPM). Blew off the fans, and facing felony criminal charges for something stupid. He's part of the losing culture on a team that desperately needs to win back fans. Maybe he'll still be on the roster opening day, but he's played his last game in a Suns uniform.

Damn Worm, you love you some RPM.

Daniels is gone. He played better than Crawford, saw fewer minutes. Plus, we have eleventy-kajillion people playing SG anyway. No incentive for him to stay.

I will be surprised if we re-sign Daniels to a new contract, but this is crazy. Over 90% of our minutes at SG came from 4 guys. That is about what you want, especially considering only 2 of those guys spent more that half their time at SG. And Daniels played the 3rd most at SG on the team.

In2ition wrote: ↑

Thu May 23, 2019 6:38 am

Damn Worm, you love you some RPM.

It's the one readily available stat that measures net effect on offense and defense while using a regression algorithm to de-alias the player's performance with the performance of the other people on the court with him at the same time. Beats Winshares and ORat / DRat, because it picks up on intangibles like setting / switching screens and the like.

Wormwood wrote: ↑

Thu May 23, 2019 8:04 am

In2ition wrote: ↑

Thu May 23, 2019 6:38 am

Damn Worm, you love you some RPM.

It's the one readily available stat that measures net effect on offense and defense while using a regression algorithm to de-alias the player's performance with the performance of the other people on the court with him at the same time. Beats Winshares and ORat / DRat, because it picks up on intangibles like setting / switching screens and the like.

So you would trade Devin Booker for Danny Green in a heartbeat, no? And Tyson Chandler and Alex Len were better than Deandre Ayton? No wonder the Suns were worse this year. Should have never started Ayton over Chandler.

In2ition wrote: ↑

Thu May 23, 2019 8:28 am

Wormwood wrote: ↑

Thu May 23, 2019 8:04 am

In2ition wrote: ↑

Thu May 23, 2019 6:38 am

Damn Worm, you love you some RPM.

It's the one readily available stat that measures net effect on offense and defense while using a regression algorithm to de-alias the player's performance with the performance of the other people on the court with him at the same time. Beats Winshares and ORat / DRat, because it picks up on intangibles like setting / switching screens and the like.

So you would trade Devin Booker for Danny Green in a heartbeat, no? And Tyson Chandler and Alex Len were better than Deandre Ayton? No wonder the Suns were worse this year. Should have never started Ayton over Chandler.

No, because it's most useful for comparing players on the same team. Plus, there are some intangibles (like room to grow, in the case of Ayton, we know rookies suck on defense, and Durant's rookie net +/- per 48 was terrible).

Wormwood wrote: ↑

Thu May 23, 2019 8:04 am

In2ition wrote: ↑

Thu May 23, 2019 6:38 am

Damn Worm, you love you some RPM.

It's the one readily available stat that measures net effect on offense and defense while using a regression algorithm to de-alias the player's performance with the performance of the other people on the court with him at the same time. Beats Winshares and ORat / DRat, because it picks up on intangibles like setting / switching screens and the like.

That's pretty convenient. You don't even have to bother watching the games.

My opinion of advanced stats is that the ones that try to show how good or valuable a player is in a single number are useless. The real value of math is in the granularity you can achieve, not in the generalizations you can make.

O_Gardino wrote: ↑

Thu May 23, 2019 12:55 pm

My opinion of advanced stats is that the ones that try to show how good or valuable a player is in a single number are useless. The real value of math is in the granularity you can achieve, not in the generalizations you can make.

Agreed. There is no single number that can tell you who the best player is. Mashing together a bunch of things just creates a mash.