Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Discussion of the league and of our favorite team.

How many wins?

< 20
0
No votes
20-24
0
No votes
25-29
10
23%
30-34
13
30%
35-39
15
34%
40-44
3
7%
45-50
2
5%
> 50
1
2%
 
Total votes: 44

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In2ition
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by In2ition » Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:35 am

Split T wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:21 am
If we are legitimately a 25 win team, and don’t end up there because of something flukey, then there really isn’t any other option than to put it on Booker. There is no reason we should play anyone this year that isn’t nba caliber. We have solid role players, if we can’t win, then it means Booker is not as good as we thought and not a number 1 option.
I'm not sure you can place all the blame on Booker if they only get to 25 wins. I'll have to see how the season goes first, but my first thought would be that since they bet heavily on Ayton coming back much more aggressive on both offense and defense, and really making him the defensive anchor, this better be the case otherwise they will fail hard.
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Split T
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Split T » Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:55 am

Ring_Wanted wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:32 am
Split T wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:21 am
If we are legitimately a 25 win team, and don’t end up there because of something flukey, then there really isn’t any other option than to put it on Booker. There is no reason we should play anyone this year that isn’t nba caliber. We have solid role players, if we can’t win, then it means Booker is not as good as we thought and not a number 1 option.
I don't agree with this. Booker is not going to be a relevant defender but he is a shotmaker force and in theory it is possible to make it work if you put the right kind of players around him (and Ayton). If you build a roster that is fatally flawed on defense (and rebounding), it's the FO who fails. This is not the East. You don't get to play four times against NYK, CLE or a bunch deceptively decent teams.
Our rebounding should be fine. Ayton is good, Baynes will help and Saric is an upgrade on Warren. Rubio is also a good rebounding guard and I expect Bridges to improve here.

As for defense, yes that will be a concern, but it shouldn’t hold us to 25 wins. Our team last year was talented enough to win 25 games.

But maybe a better indicator is our offensive rating. If we aren’t at least average offensively, then that most definitely says something about Booker’s role. For the record, I think we’ll have a pretty good offense this year and Booker will be a huge part of that.

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Split T
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Split T » Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:57 am

In2ition wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:35 am
Split T wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:21 am
If we are legitimately a 25 win team, and don’t end up there because of something flukey, then there really isn’t any other option than to put it on Booker. There is no reason we should play anyone this year that isn’t nba caliber. We have solid role players, if we can’t win, then it means Booker is not as good as we thought and not a number 1 option.
I'm not sure you can place all the blame on Booker if they only get to 25 wins. I'll have to see how the season goes first, but my first thought would be that since they bet heavily on Ayton coming back much more aggressive on both offense and defense, and really making him the defensive anchor, this better be the case otherwise they will fail hard.
Not saying he gets all the blame, just saying if we are yet again a 25 win team even with all the improvements, then maybe the very prevalent narrative that booker is not a winner, but a good stats on a bad team guy might be true.

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In2ition
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by In2ition » Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:02 pm

Split T wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:57 am
In2ition wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:35 am
Split T wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:21 am
If we are legitimately a 25 win team, and don’t end up there because of something flukey, then there really isn’t any other option than to put it on Booker. There is no reason we should play anyone this year that isn’t nba caliber. We have solid role players, if we can’t win, then it means Booker is not as good as we thought and not a number 1 option.
I'm not sure you can place all the blame on Booker if they only get to 25 wins. I'll have to see how the season goes first, but my first thought would be that since they bet heavily on Ayton coming back much more aggressive on both offense and defense, and really making him the defensive anchor, this better be the case otherwise they will fail hard.
Not saying he gets all the blame, just saying if we are yet again a 25 win team even with all the improvements, then maybe the very prevalent narrative that booker is not a winner, but a good stats on a bad team guy might be true.
You're right, and I agree with this for the most part. I think overall, they addressed almost all the deficiencies with the team, with the exception of defensive help next to Ayton and possibly another player other than Booker that can create their own offense. Other than that, I think they built the team around Booker and Ayton and all the excuses for the last few years should be gone.
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Indy
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Indy » Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:10 pm

Superbone wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:28 pm
I voted 35-39 before seeing the results or reading the comments and was surprised to see the majority with me.
I hope you are right. I still don't see how we double our win total from last year, especially when teams in the West got better.

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Marty [Mori Chu]
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Marty [Mori Chu] » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:18 pm

Indy wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:10 pm
Superbone wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:28 pm
I voted 35-39 before seeing the results or reading the comments and was surprised to see the majority with me.
I hope you are right. I still don't see how we double our win total from last year, especially when teams in the West got better.
I'd like to see your list of all the Western Conference teams and your assessment of which got better, which got worse, and which stayed about the same. I'm genuinely curious about how many teams you think are better than last year and how many you think are better than the Suns.

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Split T
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Split T » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:45 pm

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:18 pm
Indy wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:10 pm
Superbone wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:28 pm
I voted 35-39 before seeing the results or reading the comments and was surprised to see the majority with me.
I hope you are right. I still don't see how we double our win total from last year, especially when teams in the West got better.
I'd like to see your list of all the Western Conference teams and your assessment of which got better, which got worse, and which stayed about the same. I'm genuinely curious about how many teams you think are better than last year and how many you think are better than the Suns.
Not Indy, but I’ll answer.

Teams that got better:
Nuggets, Jazz, Clippers, Lakers

Teams that stayed relatively the same:
Blazers, Rockets, Spurs, Kings, Mavs, TWolves

Teams that got worse:
Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies

No idea:
Pelicans

Some of those teams in the stayed the same category may improve, but nothing about their offseason tells me they definitely did. At least not to a significant degree. Kings maybe, but they also may have played slightly over their heads last year.

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Marty [Mori Chu]
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Marty [Mori Chu] » Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:03 pm

Split T wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:45 pm
Not Indy, but I’ll answer.

Teams that got better:
Nuggets, Jazz, Clippers, Lakers

Teams that stayed relatively the same:
Blazers, Rockets, Spurs, Kings, Mavs, TWolves

Teams that got worse:
Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies

No idea:
Pelicans

Some of those teams in the stayed the same category may improve, but nothing about their offseason tells me they definitely did. At least not to a significant degree. Kings maybe, but they also may have played slightly over their heads last year.
When I look at that list I see roughly 7 likely locks for the playoffs, in some order:

LA Clippers
LA Lakers
Nuggets
Jazz
Rockets
Blazers
Warriors

I think the following 6 teams are unlikely to make the playoffs:

Kings, Mavs, Twolves, Grizzlies, Thunder, Pelicans

So that kind of leaves me thinking that we would be competing with teams like the Spurs and Kings for the 8 seed. And it's always possible that one of my "locks" above, like the Lakers (Lebron injury) or Warriors (Curry injury) doesn't make it for some fluky reason.

I could totally see this Suns team winning 45 games and shocking the league. I could also see us winning 40 games and missing the playoffs but not by too much, locking up the 9-10th seed. No way do I see us down at the 14-15th seed like the past few years.

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SunsRIt
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by SunsRIt » Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:50 pm

Vegas has the Suns over/under at 26.5.

JeremyG
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by JeremyG » Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:28 pm

I voted 45-50. But at this point it wouldn’t shock me if we won 25 games and it wouldn’t shock me if we won 50 games.

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SDC
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by SDC » Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:41 am

the oldest player is aron baynes at 32, the next oldest is rubio at 28.

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Indy
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Indy » Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:51 am

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:03 pm
Split T wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:45 pm
Not Indy, but I’ll answer.

Teams that got better:
Nuggets, Jazz, Clippers, Lakers

Teams that stayed relatively the same:
Blazers, Rockets, Spurs, Kings, Mavs, TWolves

Teams that got worse:
Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies

No idea:
Pelicans

Some of those teams in the stayed the same category may improve, but nothing about their offseason tells me they definitely did. At least not to a significant degree. Kings maybe, but they also may have played slightly over their heads last year.
When I look at that list I see roughly 7 likely locks for the playoffs, in some order:

LA Clippers
LA Lakers
Nuggets
Jazz
Rockets
Blazers
Warriors

I think the following 6 teams are unlikely to make the playoffs:

Kings, Mavs, Twolves, Grizzlies, Thunder, Pelicans

So that kind of leaves me thinking that we would be competing with teams like the Spurs and Kings for the 8 seed. And it's always possible that one of my "locks" above, like the Lakers (Lebron injury) or Warriors (Curry injury) doesn't make it for some fluky reason.

I could totally see this Suns team winning 45 games and shocking the league. I could also see us winning 40 games and missing the playoffs but not by too much, locking up the 9-10th seed. No way do I see us down at the 14-15th seed like the past few years.
Split's take is pretty much the same as mine. I would have put the Warriors in the same category as the Pels, though, as I just have no idea about them. I expect them to still be pretty damn good, and better than all but maybe 3 teams.

So I think the locks are the same as you, Mori, but also think the Mavs and Memphis will be better than us this year. I think we are on par with the Kings and T-wolves, and hopefully better than OKC (but I can see a way they still out-perform us).

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Split T
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Split T » Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:03 am

What am I missing on Dallas? Doncic is great and KP has been very good, but he’ll have sat out a year and a half when he plays his next game. Still, assuming he has no problem returning to form, what else does Dallas have? Seth Curry? Tim Hardaway Jr? JJ Barea? The rest of their team is pretty meh. I think we should be better than them.

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Indy
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Indy » Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:04 am

Split T wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:03 am
What am I missing on Dallas? Doncic is great and KP has been very good, but he’ll have sat out a year and a half when he plays his next game. Still, assuming he has no problem returning to form, what else does Dallas have? Seth Curry? Tim Hardaway Jr? JJ Barea? The rest of their team is pretty meh. I think we should be better than them.
I think they are better than last year--most of their high-minute players are coming back, Luca has a year under his belt, and they are adding KP. And they were 14 games better than us last year. I think we would need to win 40 games to beat them out and I just don't see us getting there.

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Split T
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Split T » Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:25 am

We’ll see on Dallas. They had a lot of turnover last year with the KP trade and they were better earlier in the year. I think the top of their team should be better than us with Doncic/KP over Booker/Ayton, I just don’t like the rest of their team all that much. I like Rubio/Oubre/Bridges/Saric/TJ better than Curry/THJ/Powell/Klebe/Wright.

I’m not really concerned about what they did last year from a wins total standpoint. The whole league changed and this is a new year. They don’t get to keep those wins, they start at 0, just like us and I don’t see how they are obviously better than us. If Doncic takes a leap and KP comes back better, then ya, but I’m not expecting that. I’d be surprised if they separated themselves from the pack and took that 8th seed.

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In2ition
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by In2ition » Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:00 am

It feels like the jury should be out on whether or not Doncic/KP is better than Booker/Ayton. KP had a really bad knee injury and it remains to be seen that he can stay healthy from here on out. Booker is the best player right now between all of them, and I guess we'll see how much Ayton improves or shows this year. I expect Doncic to come back in better shape and be even better this year though.
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Split T
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Split T » Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:44 am

It’s possible. We don’t know what KP will look like, but players generally come back pretty strong from ACL tears and he was very good before the injury. He’d have to take a step back for the Doncic/KP duo to not be better. That or Ayton would have to make a pretty big leap forward.

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Marty [Mori Chu]
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Marty [Mori Chu] » Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:52 am

I think we're better than the Mavs. I like Doncic and KP a lot, but we have a better best 3 guys (Rubio, Booker, Ayton) than they do, and ours fit together really nicely on the offensive end. Plus KP is coming back from a huge injury and you don't know what you'll get from him; hopefully he gets back to 100%, but we don't know that for sure.

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Ring_Wanted
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by Ring_Wanted » Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:11 am

Split T wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:55 am
Our rebounding should be fine.
Entering last season I didn't think it would be a problem, but they were dead last. They are going to have to put a real effort towards it.
But maybe a better indicator is our offensive rating. If we aren’t at least average offensively, then that most definitely says something about Booker’s role. For the record, I think we’ll have a pretty good offense this year and Booker will be a huge part of that.
What would it say? That he can't carry a team by himself? I know that, but I don't know how he'd be responsible for say Ayton's lack of domination, Oubre's inefficient chucking or the limitations of other players. These are not excuses, if you want to see him average 22-18ppg on a contender as a second/third option, then PHX should bring in better players. Ayton has a chance, but he needs to want to eat people alive.

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O_Gardino
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Re: Predict 2019-20 Suns # of wins

Post by O_Gardino » Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:13 am

The main thing the mavs have over us is coaching.
SELL THE TEAM
#notank
#sarverout

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