Game Day: Kings (14-23) @ Suns (14-22), Tues 1/7/20

[specialsauce]

Oubre and Baynes getting ripped on local radio right now for taking ill advised 3s instead of deferring to Booker and Ayton. THANK YOU

[Split T]

Oubre did have one rushed, contested 3 in the 4th that he shouldn’t have taken. All of Baynes 3’s were wide open and off passes from Booker/Rubio. He missed them and most were in the corners. As others have said, Baynes does not shoot well from the corners. That’s another side effect of the Ayton/Baynes lineup and another reason to retire it.

[In2ition]

Oubre did have one rushed, contested 3 in the 4th that he shouldn’t have taken. All of Baynes 3’s were wide open and off passes from Booker/Rubio. He missed them and most were in the corners. As others have said, Baynes does not shoot well from the corners. That’s another side effect of the Ayton/Baynes lineup and another reason to retire it.

Agreed. They need to stop this Bayton crap. It's probably hurt by Kaminsky being out, but it really needs to stop.

[Split T]

I count 3 major issues as to why we are struggling. Our team is built to be an offensive team, but the offense has two big weaknesses.

1. Not enough reliable shooters. Booker has been phenomenal in the mid range and at the rim this year. If we had reliable shooters to put around him, he’d be so much more dangerous. Our top 3 shooters are Elie(probably needs more minutes), Cam, and Oubre. Saric/Kaminsky have disappointed and Baynes has regressed big time. Nobody defends Bridges or Rubio and Booker never plays with Tyler, who hasn’t been great anyways.

2. The offense often collapses with Booker off the court. Rubio has had some good games keeping the offense afloat, but his shot is too inconsistent to be reliable. Oubre is also a little streaky and he’s really just a scorer who doesn’t ever create for others. We could really use a bench scorer to come in when Booker sits.

3. Defense is atrocious. We kinda figured it would be coming in, but the first couple weeks surprised us. We were extremely aggressive and picked up crazy amounts of fouls, but we were better. Maybe we should bring the aggressive defense back.

We’re not fixing all of those with a trade, but could we maybe fix 2? We’re built to be an offensive team, and that’s where I’d double down. How’s this:

LAC receives: Aron Baynes
OKC receives: Tyler Johnson, Dario Saric, Frank Kaminsky, Ivica Zubac
Phx receives: Danilo Gallinari, Dennis Schroeder

Perhaps some draft picks move around too.

Rubio/Booker/Oubre/Gallo/Ayton with
Schroeder/Okobo/Bridges/Cam/Diallo off the bench.

We add a real shooter in Gallo and an offensive spark off the bench in Schroeder. We lose a lot of size, may want to go find another backup big somewhere. We also use up a lot of our cap space next summer on Schroeder.

It gives us a lot more options offensively though and gives us a shot at the 7/8 seed.

[Wormwood]

It's time to admit the team, as constructed, can't be fixed with a single trade. The players we are built around have such glaring holes in their game that we can't really improve.

Rubio can't shoot
Booker can't defend
Oubre Jr. is $15M per year for a player who, while frenetic, isn't efficient on offense and is so-so on defense
We know our PF position is borked
Ayton is a dreadful defender and gives highly inconsistent effort. Neither seems likely to improve

A single trade won't fix all of these crippling flaws. Maybe the right PF will give us 3-4 extra wins, but right now we're on a pace for 31 wins. If we keep going at the rate we are over the past 45 days, I'll be collecting on my bet with Superbone.

When do we admit that we actually have to tear down and start again? The core we have now is not "fixable".

His so-so defense has created over 50 steals and over 25 blocks so far this year. There are only 8 guys in the league that have done that this year.

And he is scoring 1.296 PPS, which puts him right above Kawhi and right below Jokic for guys scoring at least 18 points per game this year.

I am not sure if he can keep this up, but he is easily worth the 15 per at this rate. Our problems are elsewhere.

However, his numbers aren't translating into a good defensive plus minus. I'll give a counter example.

Kurt Thomas barely registered in terms of blocks and steals. He was a good but not great rebounder. But, he was a defensive stud. Robin Lopez was a really good defender for a while, and he was an awful rebounder and had hands of stone. We all know that, and the defensive on court / off court numbers reflected that. The problem with measuring great defense is it doesn't really show up in the box score.

[Wormwood]

I count 3 major issues as to why we are struggling. Our team is built to be an offensive team, but the offense has two big weaknesses.

1. Not enough reliable shooters. Booker has been phenomenal in the mid range and at the rim this year. If we had reliable shooters to put around him, he’d be so much more dangerous. Our top 3 shooters are Elie(probably needs more minutes), Cam, and Oubre. Saric/Kaminsky have disappointed and Baynes has regressed big time. Nobody defends Bridges or Rubio and Booker never plays with Tyler, who hasn’t been great anyways.

2. The offense often collapses with Booker off the court. Rubio has had some good games keeping the offense afloat, but his shot is too inconsistent to be reliable. Oubre is also a little streaky and he’s really just a scorer who doesn’t ever create for others. We could really use a bench scorer to come in when Booker sits.

3. Defense is atrocious. We kinda figured it would be coming in, but the first couple weeks surprised us. We were extremely aggressive and picked up crazy amounts of fouls, but we were better. Maybe we should bring the aggressive defense back.

We’re not fixing all of those with a trade, but could we maybe fix 2? We’re built to be an offensive team, and that’s where I’d double down. How’s this:

LAC receives: Aron Baynes
OKC receives: Tyler Johnson, Dario Saric, Frank Kaminsky, Ivica Zubac
Phx receives: Danilo Gallinari, Dennis Schroeder

Perhaps some draft picks move around too.

Rubio/Booker/Oubre/Gallo/Ayton with
Schroeder/Okobo/Bridges/Cam/Diallo off the bench.

We add a real shooter in Gallo and an offensive spark off the bench in Schroeder. We lose a lot of size, may want to go find another backup big somewhere. We also use up a lot of our cap space next summer on Schroeder.

It gives us a lot more options offensively though and gives us a shot at the 7/8 seed.

Interesting thinking, but Gallinari isn't very good defensively. Some metrics say he's awful.

Schroeder is terrific defensively, and meh on offense. But... we already have Carter, who is of a similar type, and he can't get off the bench. But, the +/- numbers say Schroeder is a net positive on offense, which Carter isn't. SO... maybe? But what would we do with Rubio? Schroeder is getting starter minutes in OKC.

That said... Schoeder has the best RPM among PGs and is only 26. Rubio is 7th. So, I'm not sure we can lay this all at Rubio's feet though.

We could try and upgrade at PF, but I don't think that gets us past 35 wins anyway.

[Mori Chu]

I don't think that a Gallinari rental is the answer for us. I do like him as an offensive player, but I worry that we'll have to give up too many assets to get him and then we'll get just a half-season from him in return. I especially don't want any picks going out in any potential Gallo deal.

[Indy]

I count 3 major issues as to why we are struggling. Our team is built to be an offensive team, but the offense has two big weaknesses.

1. Not enough reliable shooters. Booker has been phenomenal in the mid range and at the rim this year. If we had reliable shooters to put around him, he’d be so much more dangerous. Our top 3 shooters are Elie(probably needs more minutes), Cam, and Oubre. Saric/Kaminsky have disappointed and Baynes has regressed big time. Nobody defends Bridges or Rubio and Booker never plays with Tyler, who hasn’t been great anyways.

2. The offense often collapses with Booker off the court. Rubio has had some good games keeping the offense afloat, but his shot is too inconsistent to be reliable. Oubre is also a little streaky and he’s really just a scorer who doesn’t ever create for others. We could really use a bench scorer to come in when Booker sits.

3. Defense is atrocious. We kinda figured it would be coming in, but the first couple weeks surprised us. We were extremely aggressive and picked up crazy amounts of fouls, but we were better. Maybe we should bring the aggressive defense back.

We’re not fixing all of those with a trade, but could we maybe fix 2? We’re built to be an offensive team, and that’s where I’d double down. How’s this:

LAC receives: Aron Baynes
OKC receives: Tyler Johnson, Dario Saric, Frank Kaminsky, Ivica Zubac
Phx receives: Danilo Gallinari, Dennis Schroeder

Perhaps some draft picks move around too.

Rubio/Booker/Oubre/Gallo/Ayton with
Schroeder/Okobo/Bridges/Cam/Diallo off the bench.

We add a real shooter in Gallo and an offensive spark off the bench in Schroeder. We lose a lot of size, may want to go find another backup big somewhere. We also use up a lot of our cap space next summer on Schroeder.

It gives us a lot more options offensively though and gives us a shot at the 7/8 seed.

I like the breakdown and mostly agree with the issues.

couple things;
1) Baynes hasn' regressed as much as it seems. He started the season before his calf injury shooting a crazy 47% on ATB 3s. For the full season he is at 36.7% from there. It was that two week period from his injury until about Dec 20th where he shot 27%. Since then he is back up to

ATB 3P%
First 12 games before injury: 47%
Injury and playing back from it: 27%
Dec-20th to now: 35%
----
full year: 36.7%

I would be really happy with a center that can set great screens, push people around, be the voice of the defense, and hit 3s at 37%. The problem is he was playing though a leg injury and his shot is a lot of legs, and now we are asking him to be both a PF and C and that is forcing him into different positions and shot attempts.

2) I don't think this trade helps our defense at all.

[Indy]

I don't think that a Gallinari rental is the answer for us. I do like him as an offensive player, but I worry that we'll have to give up too many assets to get him and then we'll get just a half-season from him in return. I especially don't want any picks going out in any potential Gallo deal.

All of the guys we are giving up in that trade are expiring contracts (or have team options for next year), so I don't think we are giving up anything to get him.

I am worried that losing baynes without another big body to hit people and set screens and grab rebounds will be a problem, though.

[Superbone]

So DA is having a hell of a game and he doesn’t even touch the wall basically in the fourth quarter. This entire team is a joke

Did he start pouting for not getting the ball, and is that the reason he only had 1 board in the 2nd half? This for a guy that supposedly can sleep walk into getting 12 boards against a depleted team in the front court. Maybe the Kings never missed, so he couldn't get a defensive board, but the truth is that he got super passive and lost all his energy for the game. Maybe that's because he would post and not get the ball, but that means he was pouting and is incredibly immature, which we kind of all knew. The ball finds energy, and he didn't give it to even try to get an offensive rebound to compensate for not being involved in the offense.

I'm glad the cat doesn't have your tongue. Spot on.

[Indy]

It's time to admit the team, as constructed, can't be fixed with a single trade. The players we are built around have such glaring holes in their game that we can't really improve.

Rubio can't shoot
Booker can't defend
Oubre Jr. is $15M per year for a player who, while frenetic, isn't efficient on offense and is so-so on defense
We know our PF position is borked
Ayton is a dreadful defender and gives highly inconsistent effort. Neither seems likely to improve

A single trade won't fix all of these crippling flaws. Maybe the right PF will give us 3-4 extra wins, but right now we're on a pace for 31 wins. If we keep going at the rate we are over the past 45 days, I'll be collecting on my bet with Superbone.

When do we admit that we actually have to tear down and start again? The core we have now is not "fixable".

His so-so defense has created over 50 steals and over 25 blocks so far this year. There are only 8 guys in the league that have done that this year.

And he is scoring 1.296 PPS, which puts him right above Kawhi and right below Jokic for guys scoring at least 18 points per game this year.

I am not sure if he can keep this up, but he is easily worth the 15 per at this rate. Our problems are elsewhere.

However, his numbers aren't translating into a good defensive plus minus. I'll give a counter example.

Kurt Thomas barely registered in terms of blocks and steals. He was a good but not great rebounder. But, he was a defensive stud. Robin Lopez was a really good defender for a while, and he was an awful rebounder and had hands of stone. We all know that, and the defensive on court / off court numbers reflected that. The problem with measuring great defense is it doesn't really show up in the box score.

He has the 2nd best defensive rating of our rotation players. And I agree there are not great defensive metrics to see it either way, but you can see from watching the games that he does make things happen on both ends of the floor.

I also forgot to mention your comment about Ayton. From what I have read recently (and albeit in limited samples because of his suspension/injury), he has one of the best defensive FG% of anyone in the league this season. I need to go look it up again.

[O_Gardino]

Lots of strong reactions in this thread. It was an infuriating loss that exposed some of our shortcomings as a team and ended the hope of the playoffs for some.

I think it's obvious to everyone now that it's not a great team. There's still just one star. The young players still have a lot of growing to do. The role players aren't playing at the level some of us hoped for. We still have holes on the roster.

On the other hand...

Over the last 6, the Suns are 3-3. There was one very good stretch at 5-2, one very bad stretch at 0-8, and one long below average stretch at 6-10.

Still on track to win significantly more games than last season and - more importantly - the team is far more competitive game in and game out than they were last year. There's a game plan that gives them a chance. Some nights they don't stick to it, and some night the talent isn't enough. But they do have a plan.

IMHO, the Suns have made a big jump this year. They've gone from being a team that would have struggled in the New Zealand league to being a below average NBA team. It may just be 10-15 more wins by the end of the season, but that is still significant growth.

[specialsauce]

It's time to admit the team, as constructed, can't be fixed with a single trade. The players we are built around have such glaring holes in their game that we can't really improve.

Rubio can't shoot
Booker can't defend
Oubre Jr. is $15M per year for a player who, while frenetic, isn't efficient on offense and is so-so on defense
We know our PF position is borked
Ayton is a dreadful defender and gives highly inconsistent effort. Neither seems likely to improve

A single trade won't fix all of these crippling flaws. Maybe the right PF will give us 3-4 extra wins, but right now we're on a pace for 31 wins. If we keep going at the rate we are over the past 45 days, I'll be collecting on my bet with Superbone.

When do we admit that we actually have to tear down and start again? The core we have now is not "fixable".

His so-so defense has created over 50 steals and over 25 blocks so far this year. There are only 8 guys in the league that have done that this year.

And he is scoring 1.296 PPS, which puts him right above Kawhi and right below Jokic for guys scoring at least 18 points per game this year.

I am not sure if he can keep this up, but he is easily worth the 15 per at this rate. Our problems are elsewhere.

However, his numbers aren't translating into a good defensive plus minus. I'll give a counter example.

Kurt Thomas barely registered in terms of blocks and steals. He was a good but not great rebounder. But, he was a defensive stud. Robin Lopez was a really good defender for a while, and he was an awful rebounder and had hands of stone. We all know that, and the defensive on court / off court numbers reflected that. The problem with measuring great defense is it doesn't really show up in the box score.

He has the 2nd best defensive rating of our rotation players. And I agree there are not great defensive metrics to see it either way, but you can see from watching the games that he does make things happen on both ends of the floor.

I also forgot to mention your comment about Ayton. From what I have read recently (and albeit in limited samples because of his suspension/injury), he has one of the best defensive FG% of anyone in the league this season. I need to go look it up again.

Ayton has the second best defensive rating on the team. The sixth best offensive rating (Oubre is 10th). However he has the third highest usage %, behind Oubre and Booker.

Booker is a whopping 28%. Ayton and Oubre hovering around 21%.

Kelly’s usage rating does not match his offensive rating. This number needs to be all Booker and Ayton. The ball should run through the two of them every single possession. We rather embrace it and give it a real shot, or we guarantee that this duo will not succeed.

You didn’t draft DA to be a screen setter and garbage man expending all his energy trying to get an offensive rebound here and there. He should be your anchor, not your trash bag.

[Indy]

It's time to admit the team, as constructed, can't be fixed with a single trade. The players we are built around have such glaring holes in their game that we can't really improve.

Rubio can't shoot
Booker can't defend
Oubre Jr. is $15M per year for a player who, while frenetic, isn't efficient on offense and is so-so on defense
We know our PF position is borked
Ayton is a dreadful defender and gives highly inconsistent effort. Neither seems likely to improve

A single trade won't fix all of these crippling flaws. Maybe the right PF will give us 3-4 extra wins, but right now we're on a pace for 31 wins. If we keep going at the rate we are over the past 45 days, I'll be collecting on my bet with Superbone.

When do we admit that we actually have to tear down and start again? The core we have now is not "fixable".

His so-so defense has created over 50 steals and over 25 blocks so far this year. There are only 8 guys in the league that have done that this year.

And he is scoring 1.296 PPS, which puts him right above Kawhi and right below Jokic for guys scoring at least 18 points per game this year.

I am not sure if he can keep this up, but he is easily worth the 15 per at this rate. Our problems are elsewhere.

However, his numbers aren't translating into a good defensive plus minus. I'll give a counter example.

Kurt Thomas barely registered in terms of blocks and steals. He was a good but not great rebounder. But, he was a defensive stud. Robin Lopez was a really good defender for a while, and he was an awful rebounder and had hands of stone. We all know that, and the defensive on court / off court numbers reflected that. The problem with measuring great defense is it doesn't really show up in the box score.

He has the 2nd best defensive rating of our rotation players. And I agree there are not great defensive metrics to see it either way, but you can see from watching the games that he does make things happen on both ends of the floor.

I also forgot to mention your comment about Ayton. From what I have read recently (and albeit in limited samples because of his suspension/injury), he has one of the best defensive FG% of anyone in the league this season. I need to go look it up again.

Ayton has the second best defensive rating on the team. The sixth best offensive rating (Oubre is 10th). However he has the third highest usage %, behind Oubre and Booker.

Booker is a whopping 28%. Ayton and Oubre hovering around 21%.

Kelly’s usage rating does not match his offensive rating. This number needs to be all Booker and Ayton. The ball should run through the two of them every single possession. We rather embrace it and give it a real shot, or we guarantee that this duo will not succeed.

You didn’t draft DA to be a screen setter and garbage man expending all his energy trying to get an offensive rebound here and there. He should be your anchor, not your trash bag.

agreed. but Ayton has played a total of 216 minutes this entire season. That is one more than Check. He needs to play more to get integrated into the offense. He should be touching the ball on most possessions.

[Wormwood]

It's time to admit the team, as constructed, can't be fixed with a single trade. The players we are built around have such glaring holes in their game that we can't really improve.

Rubio can't shoot
Booker can't defend
Oubre Jr. is $15M per year for a player who, while frenetic, isn't efficient on offense and is so-so on defense
We know our PF position is borked
Ayton is a dreadful defender and gives highly inconsistent effort. Neither seems likely to improve

A single trade won't fix all of these crippling flaws. Maybe the right PF will give us 3-4 extra wins, but right now we're on a pace for 31 wins. If we keep going at the rate we are over the past 45 days, I'll be collecting on my bet with Superbone.

When do we admit that we actually have to tear down and start again? The core we have now is not "fixable".

His so-so defense has created over 50 steals and over 25 blocks so far this year. There are only 8 guys in the league that have done that this year.

And he is scoring 1.296 PPS, which puts him right above Kawhi and right below Jokic for guys scoring at least 18 points per game this year.

I am not sure if he can keep this up, but he is easily worth the 15 per at this rate. Our problems are elsewhere.

However, his numbers aren't translating into a good defensive plus minus. I'll give a counter example.

Kurt Thomas barely registered in terms of blocks and steals. He was a good but not great rebounder. But, he was a defensive stud. Robin Lopez was a really good defender for a while, and he was an awful rebounder and had hands of stone. We all know that, and the defensive on court / off court numbers reflected that. The problem with measuring great defense is it doesn't really show up in the box score.

He has the 2nd best defensive rating of our rotation players. And I agree there are not great defensive metrics to see it either way, but you can see from watching the games that he does make things happen on both ends of the floor.

I also forgot to mention your comment about Ayton. From what I have read recently (and albeit in limited samples because of his suspension/injury), he has one of the best defensive FG% of anyone in the league this season. I need to go look it up again.

Ayton isn't great on defense. But, for all the people clamoring for KAT, I would say that KAT makes Ayton look like Gobert. By virtually any metric I can find, KAT is just dreadful and not worth his contract.

But yes, for +/- stats on defense, 7 games is a really limited sample. And Ayton is ok at 1v1 defense. His team defense and awareness are still really marginal though.

[Superbone]

Lots of strong reactions in this thread. It was an infuriating loss that exposed some of our shortcomings as a team and ended the hope of the playoffs for some.

I think it's obvious to everyone now that it's not a great team. There's still just one star. The young players still have a lot of growing to do. The role players aren't playing at the level some of us hoped for. We still have holes on the roster.

On the other hand...

Over the last 6, the Suns are 3-3. There was one very good stretch at 5-2, one very bad stretch at 0-8, and one long below average stretch at 6-10.

Still on track to win significantly more games than last season and - more importantly - the team is far more competitive game in and game out than they were last year. There's a game plan that gives them a chance. Some nights they don't stick to it, and some night the talent isn't enough. But they do have a plan.

IMHO, the Suns have made a big jump this year. They've gone from being a team that would have struggled in the New Zealand league to being a below average NBA team. It may just be 10-15 more wins by the end of the season, but that is still significant growth.

I appreciate your balanced take. In my mind, our biggest issues are intensity and defense. We don't play with intensity for 48 minutes. When we got up big, we totally let down and started jacking up bad shots and being loose on defense. If we can't stop other teams, we won't win because are shots won't always go down. You see it at the end of these games we blow where the other team's defense tightens up and we quit making shots but we can't stop the other team from scoring.

[SunsRIt]

One problem I see is this team is capable of winning. They have shown us what they can do. They just can’t sustain it for 4 quarters. Is that coaching? Motivation? I don’t know. I still think the talent is there, they just can’t gel as a cohesive unit for long periods of time. Have we heard anything about team chemistry? Do they all get along and hang out together? Why have some of the players regressed?

For awhile Booker wasn’t scoring and we attributed that to trying to stay in Monty’s system. Has Booker totally gone away from the system to put up the numbers he has in the last 7 games? How do they keep Ayton engaged for the whole game? He got off early and then disappeared. Why?

[Superbone]

I agree that Ayton needs to be utilized better. We need to start feeding him in the post and make him go to work. He needs to be more than a screen setter. He doesn't have natural instincts on what he should be doing and needs to be taught.

[Indy]

It's time to admit the team, as constructed, can't be fixed with a single trade. The players we are built around have such glaring holes in their game that we can't really improve.

Rubio can't shoot
Booker can't defend
Oubre Jr. is $15M per year for a player who, while frenetic, isn't efficient on offense and is so-so on defense
We know our PF position is borked
Ayton is a dreadful defender and gives highly inconsistent effort. Neither seems likely to improve

A single trade won't fix all of these crippling flaws. Maybe the right PF will give us 3-4 extra wins, but right now we're on a pace for 31 wins. If we keep going at the rate we are over the past 45 days, I'll be collecting on my bet with Superbone.

When do we admit that we actually have to tear down and start again? The core we have now is not "fixable".

His so-so defense has created over 50 steals and over 25 blocks so far this year. There are only 8 guys in the league that have done that this year.

And he is scoring 1.296 PPS, which puts him right above Kawhi and right below Jokic for guys scoring at least 18 points per game this year.

I am not sure if he can keep this up, but he is easily worth the 15 per at this rate. Our problems are elsewhere.

Ayton has the 2nd best DFG% in the leauge. The guy in 1st place has only played 41 minutes.
However, his numbers aren't translating into a good defensive plus minus. I'll give a counter example.

Kurt Thomas barely registered in terms of blocks and steals. He was a good but not great rebounder. But, he was a defensive stud. Robin Lopez was a really good defender for a while, and he was an awful rebounder and had hands of stone. We all know that, and the defensive on court / off court numbers reflected that. The problem with measuring great defense is it doesn't really show up in the box score.

He has the 2nd best defensive rating of our rotation players. And I agree there are not great defensive metrics to see it either way, but you can see from watching the games that he does make things happen on both ends of the floor.

I also forgot to mention your comment about Ayton. From what I have read recently (and albeit in limited samples because of his suspension/injury), he has one of the best defensive FG% of anyone in the league this season. I need to go look it up again.

Ayton isn't great on defense. But, for all the people clamoring for KAT, I would say that KAT makes Ayton look like Gobert. By virtually any metric I can find, KAT is just dreadful and not worth his contract.

But yes, for +/- stats on defense, 7 games is a really limited sample. And Ayton is ok at 1v1 defense. His team defense and awareness are still really marginal though.

[Indy]

I agree that Ayton needs to be utilized better. We need to start feeding him in the post and make him go to work. He needs to be more than a screen setter. He doesn't have natural instincts on what he should be doing and needs to be taught.

But he needs to get in the right spot and seal. He hasn't been fighting to do that very often.