NBA Draft 2020

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ShelC
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by ShelC » Sat May 09, 2020 9:04 am

Digging into the draft a bit and I do like the idea of Paul Reed, who was mentioned earlier in the thread. I see a long 6-10 combo forward with elite athleticism (at least 7-0 wingspan) playing the 4/5 in college but looks to translate nicely to the 4spot with ability to switch in the perimeter. Extremely active, high energy/motor guy which can help offset Ayton's...more grounded game, for lack of a better phrase. He looks like the type who will be able to guard the taller/longer 4s and 3s like Ingram, KD, Isaac, Harris, even Simmons but has a thinner frame and might struggle against thicker, stronger players.

He's got very nice handles in the open court having been developed as a guard/swing in high school and very nice footwork/finishing around the rim that isn't necessarily predicated on athleticism and jumping over people. In fact, in his highlights you pretty only see crafty layups around the rim with both hands and a very good sense of where he is in the paint with defenders around him. He also shows a very soft touch to get a lot of friendly bounces.

I do worry about his jumper as there's a lot of movement and a bit of a hitch in his form. He started knocking down 3s this season but I wouldn't call him a shooter, per se. His jumper reminds me a bit of Bobby Portis and I could see his offense regressing in the NBA and him "just" becoming an energy/defensive guy. We talk about a guy like Jerami Grant in FA, Reed could be that type of player just the same. He also gets that tunnel vision when he has the ball and won't be able to pull off some of that offense once he gets to the league.

We know Jones and the FO have put an emphasis on adding older/more seasoned players to the roster and Reed is a college junior who will be 21 in a month. His uncle was an NFL wide receiver and his father played basketball in college and overseas, so there's a pedigree there (if you believe in that sort of thing). Depending on where we end up in the draft and with so much uncertainty with the freshman, I wouldn't be surprised to see us trade back again and take a guy like Reed.
Last edited by ShelC on Sat May 09, 2020 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Split T
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Sat May 09, 2020 9:57 am

Reed offers a lot of intriguing things. I just don’t think he’s a starter if he can’t shoot. Shooting is such a huge skill nowadays. You’ve got to be truly special in others areas to not be a shooter. I fear he’d just end up as a small ball backup 5.

You mentioned Jerami Grant, but Grant shoots upper 30’s from 3.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by ShelC » Sat May 09, 2020 11:09 am

Yea but Grant didn't come into the league as a 3pt shooter either and like some of these bigs, I wouldn't call him a "shooter". So I don't think Reed can't get better and he already shoots mid-high 70% from the FT line, which is always a positive for a big.

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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Sat May 09, 2020 11:24 am

ShelC wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 11:09 am
Yea but Grant didn't come into the league as a 3pt shooter either and like some of these bigs, I wouldn't call him a "shooter". So I don't think Reed can't get better and he already shoots mid-high 70% from the FT line, which is always a positive for a big.
True. Reed could end up being able to shoot. I just wouldn’t count on it. Because of that, I wouldn’t consider him at 10. Trade back into the late 1st? Ya I’d look at him there.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by ShelC » Sat May 09, 2020 11:27 am

Yea no definitely not at 10. Too early to project where he'd go at this point but we'd be trading back to take him. Everyone was high on Clarke last year and he still went 21 or 22?

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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Sat May 09, 2020 11:37 am

Ya, 21 I believe. That was a miss by GM’s and a win for draft nerds...lots of draft analysts had him near the top of their board. He’s 1st team All-Rookie this year, right?
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by ShelC » Sat May 09, 2020 12:08 pm

Yea probably. Interestingly he and Reed aren't that dissimilar...older players, questionable shooting, known for energy and athleticism tho Clarke had a better rep defensively but didn't have the measureables.

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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Sat May 09, 2020 12:38 pm

Definitely some similarities...I think what pushed Clarke higher was the ridiculous efficiency. He shot almost 70% from the field. He’s also an elite athlete. Reed has the size and measurables, but Clarke had him beat on production. Clarke had shooting issues, but he had those elite skills you look for. Finishing and shot blocking. He had also completely remade his shot and was showing significant improvements. Not surprisingly, he was a +40% from 3 guy in his rookie year.

I would feel so good about this team right now if we had drafted Brandon Clarke at 11.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by O_Gardino » Sat May 09, 2020 2:05 pm

Split T wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 12:38 pm
Definitely some similarities...I think what pushed Clarke higher was the ridiculous efficiency. He shot almost 70% from the field. He’s also an elite athlete. Reed has the size and measurables, but Clarke had him beat on production. Clarke had shooting issues, but he had those elite skills you look for. Finishing and shot blocking. He had also completely remade his shot and was showing significant improvements. Not surprisingly, he was a +40% from 3 guy in his rookie year.

I would feel so good about this team right now if we had drafted Brandon Clarke at 11.
I think we could still have gotten Cam at 24.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Sat May 09, 2020 2:18 pm

O_Gardino wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 2:05 pm
Split T wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 12:38 pm
Definitely some similarities...I think what pushed Clarke higher was the ridiculous efficiency. He shot almost 70% from the field. He’s also an elite athlete. Reed has the size and measurables, but Clarke had him beat on production. Clarke had shooting issues, but he had those elite skills you look for. Finishing and shot blocking. He had also completely remade his shot and was showing significant improvements. Not surprisingly, he was a +40% from 3 guy in his rookie year.

I would feel so good about this team right now if we had drafted Brandon Clarke at 11.
I think we could still have gotten Cam at 24.
I thought about that, but I think someone would have taken him in the teens. Possibly Detroit at 15.

I do wonder if we had other trade down options. Comments after the draft make me think Cam was our guy the whole time. I wonder how much we explored dropping further. I also wonder who the pick would have been had we stayed at 6.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by In2ition » Sat May 09, 2020 4:26 pm

I don't know how much of a comparison Jerami Grant is to Paul Reed. Reed's numbers were crazy and Grant's weren't even close in comparison while he was at Syracuse.

Reed's per 40 numbers were 13.5 rbs 2.4 steals and 3.2 blocks if just measuring the defensive counting stats.

Grant's while playing a 2-3 zone, were 8.6 rbs, 1 steal & 0.7 blocks.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Sat May 09, 2020 4:46 pm

That was also 7 years ago for Grant. The comparison is more to what Grant is now. Also zone defenses tend to suppress defensive counting stats. But grant has also never been much of a rebounder. He has shown some weak side shot blocking though.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by INFORMER » Sat May 09, 2020 5:03 pm

Split T wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:02 pm
O_Gardino wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:47 pm
I don't think of him as a shooter at all, which is part of why he's so far back. I think he could develop a reliable jumper, but he doesn't have it yet.
In that case I don’t think I’d draft him at 10. I think he provides a lot of useful skills, but without a jump shot, he’s essentially a backup 5.
I don't think you can operate that way. Stretch 4s aren't really made in college; you have to look at potential and if there are building blocks to work with, you go from there. You look at if the player has range (have they made the shot, how often have they made it, how natural of a stroke do they have); free throw percentage can also be a good indicator on a big man's potential as a long range threat.

So I look at Reed: he hit 16 3's in 29 games; that's a good clip. He did so at a 30% clip, which isn't great, but he is solid from the free throw line. Then you at him on film and the stroke/release is there; there is something to work with.

So I absolutely think he should be in play at the Suns' pick.
2020 Draft: Tyrese Haliburton. Paul Reed. Aaron Nesmith. Desmond Bane. Theo Maledon. Malik Fitts. Jalen Smith. Marcus Zegarowski. Sam Merill. Reggie Perry.

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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by INFORMER » Sat May 09, 2020 5:08 pm

In2ition wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 2:15 pm
Like I've said in the past, the best teams are super long and big.
I don't think that is necessarily true. Length is great, but there is a lot of success being had without teams needing to be "big."
2020 Draft: Tyrese Haliburton. Paul Reed. Aaron Nesmith. Desmond Bane. Theo Maledon. Malik Fitts. Jalen Smith. Marcus Zegarowski. Sam Merill. Reggie Perry.

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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Sat May 09, 2020 6:03 pm

INFORMER wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 5:03 pm
Split T wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:02 pm
O_Gardino wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:47 pm
I don't think of him as a shooter at all, which is part of why he's so far back. I think he could develop a reliable jumper, but he doesn't have it yet.
In that case I don’t think I’d draft him at 10. I think he provides a lot of useful skills, but without a jump shot, he’s essentially a backup 5.
I don't think you can operate that way. Stretch 4s aren't really made in college; you have to look at potential and if there are building blocks to work with, you go from there. You look at if the player has range (have they made the shot, how often have they made it, how natural of a stroke do they have); free throw percentage can also be a good indicator on a big man's potential as a long range threat.

So I look at Reed: he hit 16 3's in 29 games; that's a good clip. He did so at a 30% clip, which isn't great, but he is solid from the free throw line. Then you at him on film and the stroke/release is there; there is something to work with.

So I absolutely think he should be in play at the Suns' pick.
I’ll start by saying I haven’t watched much of him, so most of my comments aren’t directed specifically at Reed. I just think it’s dangerous to draft someone high who needs to learn a new skill to warrant being drafted that high. You’ve got to be willing to accept that that skill may never come. You’ve got to be ok with the other parts of their game.

Again, I haven’t watched Reed much, but I’m not super assured by 16 made 3’s and 30%. Good FT shooting is promising. But none of that makes me think he’s going to be a shooter. If I’m drafting him, I’m not counting on him being a good stretch 4.

Been burned way too many times there. I thought Josh would be a good shooter. He had a funky release, but he had higher percentages than Tatum and Isaac.

I thought Chriss would be a good floor spacer. He also had pretty decent numbers in college and had a pretty good looking release. He’s finally come into his own as a basketball player and it’s got a lot to do with him abandoning being a stretch 4 and becoming a rolling 5.

Shooting was supposed to be Bender’s ready made nba skill. He only got worse.

Bridges is a good example for me on needing to like what else they bring to the table. I liked him at 10 because he was a smart player, he had size, and he defended multiple positions. I loved him because he was also a 43% 3pt shooter on high volume. I’m still ok with the pick at 10, because even though his shot hasn’t been what was advertised, everything else has. So at this point, assuming Bridges never becomes a great shooter, I feel neutral about the Bridges pick, but if the shot comes back, that moves to good pick, we definitely got value.

So does Reed bring enough to the table that I’d feel ok about the pick at 10 if he never shoots? Not for me. And a lot of that may come from the fact that no one has him remotely close to going top 10. If you take a chance on a guy like that, 15-20 spots above where he’s being mocked, he better pan out. If you don’t know if he’s going to shoot, but love everything else that he brings, trade down and take him at 25.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by INFORMER » Sat May 09, 2020 6:56 pm

Been burned way too many times there. I thought Josh would be a good shooter. He had a funky release, but he had higher percentages than Tatum and Isaac.

I thought Chriss would be a good floor spacer. He also had pretty decent numbers in college and had a pretty good looking release. He’s finally come into his own as a basketball player and it’s got a lot to do with him abandoning being a stretch 4 and becoming a rolling 5.

Shooting was supposed to be Bender’s ready made nba skill. He only got worse.
Well first, Bender and Chriss were terrible prospects. I think that is more shame on you (and more importantly, the Suns) than a cautionary tale about shooting. Jackson is just a bust; he was a tremendous college freshman and had talent; but he also is a knucklehead and mentally just isn't there at the NBA level.

I love Reed's defensive potential. He is a threat in the passing lanes, he is a great shot-blocker, he can defend all over the court, and he is a monster rebounder. He has great athleticism and tremendous length. So for me, there is enough there outside of the stretch potential to warrant consideration at 10.
2020 Draft: Tyrese Haliburton. Paul Reed. Aaron Nesmith. Desmond Bane. Theo Maledon. Malik Fitts. Jalen Smith. Marcus Zegarowski. Sam Merill. Reggie Perry.

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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Sat May 09, 2020 7:04 pm

INFORMER wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 6:56 pm
Been burned way too many times there. I thought Josh would be a good shooter. He had a funky release, but he had higher percentages than Tatum and Isaac.

I thought Chriss would be a good floor spacer. He also had pretty decent numbers in college and had a pretty good looking release. He’s finally come into his own as a basketball player and it’s got a lot to do with him abandoning being a stretch 4 and becoming a rolling 5.

Shooting was supposed to be Bender’s ready made nba skill. He only got worse.
Well first, Bender and Chriss were terrible prospects. I think that is more shame on you (and more importantly, the Suns) than a cautionary tale about shooting. Jackson is just a bust; he was a tremendous college freshman and had talent; but he also is a knucklehead and mentally just isn't there at the NBA level.

I love Reed's defensive potential. He is a threat in the passing lanes, he is a great shot-blocker, he can defend all over the court, and he is a monster rebounder. He has great athleticism and tremendous length. So for me, there is enough there outside of the stretch potential to warrant consideration at 10.
If your last paragraph is true, again, I just haven’t watched him enough, then that’s more what I’m talking about. He needs to be special on those areas for me to take him at 10.

As for the Chriss/Bender stuff. I didn’t like Bender, so no shame for me there. I did like Chriss. He sucked for us and was a bad pick for us, but I think he’s showing he wasn’t a terrible prospect. He’s been quite good for the Warriors this year.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by INFORMER » Sat May 09, 2020 7:09 pm

I think he is showing he can be an NBA player, but we are talking, what, 20-30 games of decent play. That doesn't change the fact that he had no business being drafted in the lottery.
2020 Draft: Tyrese Haliburton. Paul Reed. Aaron Nesmith. Desmond Bane. Theo Maledon. Malik Fitts. Jalen Smith. Marcus Zegarowski. Sam Merill. Reggie Perry.

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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Sat May 09, 2020 7:12 pm

INFORMER wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 7:09 pm
I think he is showing he can be an NBA player, but we are talking, what, 20-30 games of decent play. That doesn't change the fact that he had no business being drafted in the lottery.
Fair. He wasn’t ready for the nba mentally/emotionally. I wonder what the opinion of him would be if he went late 1st to the Warriors, was brought along slowly, and was now getting his chance.
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by In2ition » Sat May 09, 2020 7:23 pm

INFORMER wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 5:08 pm
In2ition wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 2:15 pm
Like I've said in the past, the best teams are super long and big.
I don't think that is necessarily true. Length is great, but there is a lot of success being had without teams needing to be "big."
I was speaking about this season, looking at the Bucks and Lakers.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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