NBA Draft 2020

Discussion of the league and of our favorite team.
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ShelC
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by ShelC » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:29 am

I love Cam on the team and he's an assassin, one of the best shooters in the league already IMO. And we needed that "vet" stretch 4 that Saric is, tho he underwhelmed for sure.

I liked White at 6 and wonder what a 3 guard lineup of Rubio, White and Book would've looked like with White being developed as that scoring guard next to Book for the future. I think things could've worked with White off the bench in the short term.

Also really like Hachimura at PF, who would've been there at 6. Tyler Herro was another real nice shooter/scorer who would've fit well but is a true SF and would've given us another long jam at the 3 whereas Cam saw a bunch of time at PF.

And that's not even mentioning Clarke, who I wasn't that high on at that time but proved to be a good player his rookie year.

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3rdside
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by 3rdside » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:05 am

ShelC wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:29 am
I love Cam on the team and he's an assassin, one of the best shooters in the league already IMO. And we needed that "vet" stretch 4 that Saric is, tho he underwhelmed for sure.

I liked White at 6 and wonder what a 3 guard lineup of Rubio, White and Book would've looked like with White being developed as that scoring guard next to Book for the future. I think things could've worked with White off the bench in the short term.

Also really like Hachimura at PF, who would've been there at 6. Tyler Herro was another real nice shooter/scorer who would've fit well but is a true SF and would've given us another long jam at the 3 whereas Cam saw a bunch of time at PF.

And that's not even mentioning Clarke, who I wasn't that high on at that time but proved to be a good player his rookie year.
Got me as I was doing the edits .. Hachimura's been good / I liked him at draft time also but I still think we've got something in Johnson.

List of all players:

- Rookie season
- GP > 41
- 3PA > 4
- 3Pt% > .390
- Ranked by TS%

Player--------------------------Age----3PA-----3P%-----G-----TS%
Landry Shamet----------------21------5------0.422---79----0.604
Rudy Fernández---------------23-----5.1----0.399---78-----0.588
Matt Maloney------------------25-----4.6----0.404----82----0.585
Cameron Johnson-------------23-----4.7----0.397----49----0.576
Stephen Curry-----------------21-----4.8----0.437----80----0.568
Bogdan Bogdanović-----------25-----4.2----0.392----78----0.556
Klay Thompson----------------21-----4.1----0.414----66----0.545
Mike Miller---------------------20-----4.4----0.407----82----0.541
Buddy Hield--------------------24-----4.6----0.391----82----0.541
Paul Pierce---------------------21-----4.3----0.412----48-----0.54
Tyler Herro---------------------20-----5.4----0.391----47----0.534
Damon Stoudamire------------22----4.8----0.395-----70---0.528
Ben Gordon---------------------21-----4------0.405----82----0.526
Kirk Hinrich---------------------23----4.9------0.39----76----0.51

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3rdside
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by 3rdside » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:23 am

Not a hugely insightful list but he's taller than all of them, which is his one distinct advantage, except for Mike Miller (who I always thought was 6'6", but he's also 6'8").

So maybe I'm getting a little carried away with Johnson as he might not project quite as well as Miller (who was probably only a 'good' player), although Miller's best season came when the league was averaging half (16.9) the 3PA/PG it does this season (33.9), which should work in Johnson's favour.

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3rdside
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by 3rdside » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:38 am

Last post save me getting a deserved thread pollution warning.

Interestingly Miller's career stats (10.6pts / 4.2rbds / 2.6ast) came out more or less the same as what you'd expect from the 6th pick (10.2/4.6/1.7):

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

So if Johnson mimics that ..

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ShelC
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by ShelC » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:22 am

That was a weaker draft IIRC and I was just looking at Miller's career last weekend after that workout video went viral. He was a good player for sure but I was wondering where he'd be ranked in his prime? Top 50ish?

With Rui, I saw him more of a Antawn Jamison type who could've fit nicely next to Ayton. He's more of an offensive player with some tunnel vision but had some real nice moments as a rook.

I think the question for Cam will be how much stronger he can get and if he can be a decent rebounder for us. He averaged 5rpg per 36 last year which is OK, but I'd like a few more. I don't think he'll be an big off-the-dribble slasher but that's also not what we drafted him for. Nor do I think he'll add 20-30lbs and fill out as a true stretch 4.

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O_Gardino
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by O_Gardino » Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:17 am

3rdside wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:56 am
...

Clarke is almost the perfect argument against analytics therefore as he is such a baller, and I struggle to see how he lasted to #21 other than to blame it on this.
I think it's the opposite. Advanced stats LOVED Clarke coming out of college. He had historically good on/off numbers, O&D ratings, Win shares per 40, and BPM. He probably blew up all of the other advanced starts, too.

IMO, there are 3 reasons he lasted to #21. 1, He didn't look like he should be that good - too small, etc. 2, It's a scorers league, and teams undervalue glue guys. 3, Teams were too proud to draft a guy based on analytics.
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O_Gardino
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by O_Gardino » Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:19 am

ShelC wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:22 am
That was a weaker draft IIRC and I was just looking at Miller's career last weekend after that workout video went viral. He was a good player for sure but I was wondering where he'd be ranked in his prime? Top 50ish?

With Rui, I saw him more of a Antawn Jamison type who could've fit nicely next to Ayton. He's more of an offensive player with some tunnel vision but had some real nice moments as a rook.

I think the question for Cam will be how much stronger he can get and if he can be a decent rebounder for us. He averaged 5rpg per 36 last year which is OK, but I'd like a few more. I don't think he'll be an big off-the-dribble slasher but that's also not what we drafted him for. Nor do I think he'll add 20-30lbs and fill out as a true stretch 4.
I think the question for Cam is his health. I don't have any other concerns about him.
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Shabazz
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Shabazz » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:44 pm

How about "would you swap Tyler Herro or PJ Washington for Cam?"

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In2ition
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by In2ition » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:19 pm

No on Washington, maybe on Herro. I think Washington is overrated and Cam is underrated.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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ShelC
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by ShelC » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:20 pm

I think that's a legit question and you could end up making an argument for either guy.

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Split T
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Split T » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:35 pm

Washington was pretty good this year. I like Cam, I like that he’s on the team, but Washington, Herro, and Clarke all add more value in my opinion.
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In2ition
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by In2ition » Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:17 pm

I think Cam was better than Washington this yr and has a skill that is more valuable and ability to become elite at it in the league. Washington ceiling is an average PF in the league, imo.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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In2ition
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by In2ition » Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:17 pm


This kid is SUPER interesting. Fantastic passer, ball handler and shooter on the move. Pretty good and smart defender using verticality, timing and instincts on both the inside and on the perimeter. He could be a shooter like 80% of Bertans while also getting to 75% of Jokic as a passer. He might be my favorite at 10, and a great fit next to Ayton as he grows. Youngest player in the draft. Special skills and feel, and even more so at his size. Needs to put on strength and weight though. Good project for the new performance center and Mark Bryant. Credit to Spencer Pearlman on pointing this out.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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INFORMER
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by INFORMER » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:26 pm

In2ition wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:17 pm
I think Cam was better than Washington this yr and has a skill that is more valuable and ability to become elite at it in the league.
I don't understand what any of that is based on.

Washington is younger, stronger, and plays a position of need for us. Cam is the heralded shooter, but he only shot 2% higher from distance than Washington.

I feel like this like going back to 2006 and making an argument that James Jones is better than David West.
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INFORMER
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by INFORMER » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:27 pm

In2ition wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:17 pm
Needs to put on strength and weight though.
I feel like that is an understatement.

His handles are ridiculous though. But he has very little experience. He played in the second-tier of the Greek league. I don't think there is any way James Jones even considers drafting him. It's a shame though; definitely seems worthy of consideration.
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3rdside
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by 3rdside » Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:07 am

O_Gardino wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:17 am
3rdside wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:56 am
...

Clarke is almost the perfect argument against analytics therefore as he is such a baller, and I struggle to see how he lasted to #21 other than to blame it on this.
I think it's the opposite. Advanced stats LOVED Clarke coming out of college. He had historically good on/off numbers, O&D ratings, Win shares per 40, and BPM. He probably blew up all of the other advanced starts, too.

IMO, there are 3 reasons he lasted to #21. 1, He didn't look like he should be that good - too small, etc. 2, It's a scorers league, and teams undervalue glue guys. 3, Teams were too proud to draft a guy based on analytics.

What I meant was analytics that cover everything, and not just game statistics and advanced interpretations of them.

So weighted models that include variables like family background, grades in school, 'hustle', work ethic .... and wingspan in relation to height and / or position.

As wingspan above height is important - and will therefore carry a large weight, especially for an average sized PF - that might be one of the main reasons he was drafted so low .. just as you said.

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Shabazz
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Shabazz » Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:31 am

INFORMER wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:27 pm
In2ition wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:17 pm
Needs to put on strength and weight though.
I feel like that is an understatement.

His handles are ridiculous though. But he has very little experience. He played in the second-tier of the Greek league. I don't think there is any way James Jones even considers drafting him. It's a shame though; definitely seems worthy of consideration.
I’ve watched a bunch of tape on him and RJ Hampton. They’re both really hard to project with any certainty. Pokusevski plays like a guard with the height of a center and I don’t say that in a complimentary way. Hampton is so freaking fast, but super raw. The two biggest boom or bust guys in the draft, IMO.

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3rdside
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by 3rdside » Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:32 am

Shabazz wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:44 pm
How about "would you swap Tyler Herro or PJ Washington for Cam?"
At #6 we were likely only considering White, Hachimura, Culvert, Reddish (and I was pretty confident it would be White).

At #11 we weren't taking a shooting guard with Booker I don't think, so Herro's out, but yes you could ask about Washington.

I would probably make the trade for him today - good height / thickness, great wingspan, mobile and can shoot the three well, so a modern 4 and zero injury concerns so far, which is an issue with Johnson, but no gimme either. Johnson's durability will determine a lot.

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Shabazz
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by Shabazz » Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:38 am

I don’t know that Cam plays that much bigger than Herro. They’re both wings.

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3rdside
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Re: NBA Draft 2020

Post by 3rdside » Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:43 am

They're different guys - Johnson's 6'8" with a 6'10" wingspan, Herro is 6'5" with a 6'3" wingspan - so I'd find it hard to say they're similar.

And cam is sneaky athletic as well ("He posted the event’s fifth-best lane agility time, nearly matched Little’s standing vertical at 30.5 inches, and went for the ninth-best max vertical at 36.5 inches") so it's not like Herro's got that on him either.

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