Suns News: Coronavirus Break

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Mori Chu
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by Mori Chu » Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:57 pm

Superbone wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:42 am
Two Suns test positive. :( Voluntary workouts shut down.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/ ... 240663001/
Wow. I think this is the sign that the season is doomed. Teams are going to give it a try, then the cases are going to emerge, and then they're going to cancel.

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Superbone
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by Superbone » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:03 pm

Mori Chu wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:57 pm
Superbone wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:42 am
Two Suns test positive. :( Voluntary workouts shut down.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/ ... 240663001/
Wow. I think this is the sign that the season is doomed. Teams are going to give it a try, then the cases are going to emerge, and then they're going to cancel.
Later, the Suns said they were continuing workouts.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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INFORMER
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by INFORMER » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:53 pm

Split T wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:52 am
Isaac is definitely a 4, they’ve had to play AG out of position at the 3 because of Isaac. Oubre fits nicely next to Isaac
Exactly. And Orlando doesn't have a lot of dependable scoring. Fournier has been up and down. Vucevic is really the only one they can count on consistently. Oubre would be a perfect fit.
2020 Draft: Aaron Nesmith - Paul Reed - Reggie Perry - Jalen Smith - Desmond Bane - Rayshaun Hammonds - Sam Merrill - Tre Jones - Tyler Bey

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INFORMER
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by INFORMER » Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:01 pm

3rdside wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:42 pm
Even if you think Oubre’s definitely better (I can be convinced) then the contract difference might cancel out the talent difference, or if it doesn’t then the #15 is probably too much of a make up and a later first round pick might be fair.

But maybe the chemistry risk is the big one and the #15 is needed for us to get comfortable.

For me, I’m looking at Gordon as an underpriced asset and a better fit for us, Oubre as arguably redundant with Bridges and Johnson, and maybe soon to be overpriced.

Oubre is not redundant of Bridges and Johnson. There are too many games where you get practically nothing from Bridges offensively, and Cam's "killer" 8 points per game is not moving the needle.

Oubre being 5 percentage points higher than Gordon in 3-point shooting is a big deal. And there is a pretty big difference between scoring 18.7 ppg and scoring 14.4 ppg. With Oubre, you don't have to go 2 seasons back to talk up his value. His value is now. He has been getting better and better ever since he got to Phoenix. Oubre's value is now and real; Gordon's is speculative. Oubre has embraced playing in Phoenix, which you can't discount.
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INFORMER
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by INFORMER » Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:04 pm

Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:44 pm
Stranger things have happened for sure, but Orlando is not giving up #15 and Gordon for Oubre who'll be free to walk in a year.
  • Houston turned Aaron Brooks into Goran Dragic and a 1st round pick.
  • Indiana turned nothing into TJ Warren and a second round pick.
  • Golden State turned D'Angelo Russell into Andrew Wiggins and a 1st round pick.


If the price is too steep for Orlando, then walk away. We don't need to trade Oubre.
2020 Draft: Aaron Nesmith - Paul Reed - Reggie Perry - Jalen Smith - Desmond Bane - Rayshaun Hammonds - Sam Merrill - Tre Jones - Tyler Bey

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In2ition
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by In2ition » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:26 am

INFORMER wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:04 pm
Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:44 pm
Stranger things have happened for sure, but Orlando is not giving up #15 and Gordon for Oubre who'll be free to walk in a year.
  • Houston turned Aaron Brooks into Goran Dragic and a 1st round pick.
  • Indiana turned nothing into TJ Warren and a second round pick.
  • Golden State turned D'Angelo Russell into Andrew Wiggins and a 1st round pick.


If the price is too steep for Orlando, then walk away. We don't need to trade Oubre.
Well said.
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by O_Gardino » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:48 am

You guys got me daydreaming about that #15 pick.
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Mori Chu
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by Mori Chu » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:31 am

The grass is always greener on the other side. I think some of the posts in this thread are underrating Oubre. He had a pretty impressive season for us this past year. I guess the best argument against him is that he doesn't pass enough, or that his production is replaceable. After all we had several other SFs like TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, etc. and also have Mikal Bridges waiting in the wings. But Kelly's scoring is quite good and not easy to replace. He reminds me in some ways of Quentin Richardson, a guy whose positive effect on the team chemistry and attitude and camaraderie was bigger than his stats.

Aaron Gordon is a good player, and I'd potentially be willing to make a trade for him. But I think that Orlando would have to give us an asset to make that swap. Oubre is simply producing better than Gordon at this point in time and is a more valuable player, especially when you factor in the contracts.

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Superbone
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by Superbone » Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:19 pm

O_Gardino wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:48 am
You guys got me daydreaming about that #15 pick.
You guys and your picks. We've got a sure thing in Oubre.
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Superbone
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by Superbone » Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:20 pm

Mori Chu wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:31 am
The grass is always greener on the other side. I think some of the posts in this thread are underrating Oubre. He had a pretty impressive season for us this past year. I guess the best argument against him is that he doesn't pass enough, or that his production is replaceable. After all we had several other SFs like TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, etc. and also have Mikal Bridges waiting in the wings. But Kelly's scoring is quite good and not easy to replace. He reminds me in some ways of Quentin Richardson, a guy whose positive effect on the team chemistry and attitude and camaraderie was bigger than his stats.
Not to mention his clutchness.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by specialsauce » Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:21 pm

Superbone wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:19 pm
O_Gardino wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:48 am
You guys got me daydreaming about that #15 pick.
You guys and your picks. We've got a sure thing in Oubre.
The only thing I’m dreaming about is getting rid of Oubre, acquiring Gordon, then immediately trading the 15th pick away for an actual basketball player, not a prospect we’ll miss on.

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Indy
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by Indy » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:00 pm

specialsauce wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:21 pm
Superbone wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:19 pm
O_Gardino wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:48 am
You guys got me daydreaming about that #15 pick.
You guys and your picks. We've got a sure thing in Oubre.
The only thing I’m dreaming about is getting rid of Oubre, acquiring Gordon, then immediately trading the 15th pick away for an actual basketball player, not a prospect we’ll miss on.
Saucy--you were probably advocating in 2014 to trade our 13th pick in 2015 for a real player like Monta Ellis. :P

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ShelC
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by ShelC » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:22 pm

Mori Chu wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:31 am
The grass is always greener on the other side. I think some of the posts in this thread are underrating Oubre. He had a pretty impressive season for us this past year. I guess the best argument against him is that he doesn't pass enough, or that his production is replaceable. After all we had several other SFs like TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, etc. and also have Mikal Bridges waiting in the wings. But Kelly's scoring is quite good and not easy to replace. He reminds me in some ways of Quentin Richardson, a guy whose positive effect on the team chemistry and attitude and camaraderie was bigger than his stats.

Aaron Gordon is a good player, and I'd potentially be willing to make a trade for him. But I think that Orlando would have to give us an asset to make that swap. Oubre is simply producing better than Gordon at this point in time and is a more valuable player, especially when you factor in the contracts.
Agreed. I also like Oubre's ability to play downhill and get into the lane off the dribble. No one else on the perimeter can do that and you need that kind of threat. He's the kind of guy you take for granted while he's on the team.

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specialsauce
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by specialsauce » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:49 pm

Indy wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:00 pm
specialsauce wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:21 pm
Superbone wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:19 pm
O_Gardino wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:48 am
You guys got me daydreaming about that #15 pick.
You guys and your picks. We've got a sure thing in Oubre.
The only thing I’m dreaming about is getting rid of Oubre, acquiring Gordon, then immediately trading the 15th pick away for an actual basketball player, not a prospect we’ll miss on.
Saucy--you were probably advocating in 2014 to trade our 13th pick in 2015 for a real player like Monta Ellis. :P
You would make a great politician- put blinders on for the 15 misses around that one hit

And definitely not Monta- but I’m still mad we didn’t draft Jared Jeffries

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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by Superbone » Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:29 pm

specialsauce wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:49 pm
Indy wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:00 pm
specialsauce wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:21 pm
Superbone wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:19 pm
O_Gardino wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:48 am
You guys got me daydreaming about that #15 pick.
You guys and your picks. We've got a sure thing in Oubre.
The only thing I’m dreaming about is getting rid of Oubre, acquiring Gordon, then immediately trading the 15th pick away for an actual basketball player, not a prospect we’ll miss on.
Saucy--you were probably advocating in 2014 to trade our 13th pick in 2015 for a real player like Monta Ellis. :P
You would make a great politician- put blinders on for the 15 misses around that one hit

And definitely not Monta- but I’m still mad we didn’t draft Jared Jeffries
I'm looking forward to Jeffries' Hall of Fame speech.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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3rdside
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by 3rdside » Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:29 am

INFORMER wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:01 pm
3rdside wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:42 pm
Even if you think Oubre’s definitely better (I can be convinced) then the contract difference might cancel out the talent difference, or if it doesn’t then the #15 is probably too much of a make up and a later first round pick might be fair.

But maybe the chemistry risk is the big one and the #15 is needed for us to get comfortable.

For me, I’m looking at Gordon as an underpriced asset and a better fit for us, Oubre as arguably redundant with Bridges and Johnson, and maybe soon to be overpriced.

Oubre is not redundant of Bridges and Johnson. There are too many games where you get practically nothing from Bridges offensively, and Cam's "killer" 8 points per game is not moving the needle.

Oubre being 5 percentage points higher than Gordon in 3-point shooting is a big deal. And there is a pretty big difference between scoring 18.7 ppg and scoring 14.4 ppg. With Oubre, you don't have to go 2 seasons back to talk up his value. His value is now. He has been getting better and better ever since he got to Phoenix. Oubre's value is now and real; Gordon's is speculative. Oubre has embraced playing in Phoenix, which you can't discount.
Bridges is only in his second season and averaged 14ppg over his last 7 games - there was a noticeable improvement in his game as the season went on. He’s a defensive hound, strong 3pt% and is on track to be a legit starter.

And you’re overvaluing the 3pt% differential as Gordon had two decent seasons prior to this one.

That said, his drop in output is also to do with not being the focus on offence in addition to not having Payton, so he could face the same issue of less opportunities in Phx .. so yes his output is speculative, not least the 3pt% which is obviously important, and Kelly is a proven commodity for both in the current system, like you said.

I argued that you can’t ignore the contract situation - based on league wide SF contracts Kelly is on target for ~$25m a year, so if we make a straight swap trade (and ignoring all other roster moves) we’d have about $8.5m in additional cap room in 2 years with Gordon on the books for only $16.5m.

I’m starting to think that amount of extra cap room isn’t worth the risk and would need to be compensated for.

Which probably means a Gordon / Oubre trade doesn’t get done as the #15 might just be fair value for us to take that risk but Orlando isn't doing that as the risk of Oubre walking is too high and they’re probably still reeling from the Oladipo give away.

A late first rounder could see each team meet halfway - and I’m firming on this being the equilibrium point - but I doubt it as that pick is largely worthless to us based on recent draft history and Orlando’s risk remains.

So we’re probably waiting till next summer (if Gordon’s still in Orlando) as Kelly’s contract demands might force the issue ... at $30m per, Gordon will start to look a lot more appealing.
Last edited by 3rdside on Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:08 am, edited 2 times in total.

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3rdside
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by 3rdside » Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:40 am

Small Forward contracts around the league:

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/contracts/small-forward/

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Indy
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by Indy » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:47 am

specialsauce wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:49 pm
Indy wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:00 pm
specialsauce wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:21 pm
Superbone wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:19 pm
O_Gardino wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:48 am
You guys got me daydreaming about that #15 pick.
You guys and your picks. We've got a sure thing in Oubre.
The only thing I’m dreaming about is getting rid of Oubre, acquiring Gordon, then immediately trading the 15th pick away for an actual basketball player, not a prospect we’ll miss on.
Saucy--you were probably advocating in 2014 to trade our 13th pick in 2015 for a real player like Monta Ellis. :P
You would make a great politician- put blinders on for the 15 misses around that one hit

And definitely not Monta- but I’m still mad we didn’t draft Jared Jeffries
I guess my point is that you are always advocating for getting rid of picks to sign "real NBA players" and when you do that, you don't get markedly better. You will have a hard time finding more than 1 or 2 championship teams over the last 30 years that didn't draft their Superstar 1A or 1B (or are the Lakers that tampered to get Shaq).

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specialsauce
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by specialsauce » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:35 am

We already have our 1A and 1B. It’s time to get real contributors around DA and Book

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Aztec Sunsfan
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Re: Suns News: Coronavirus Break

Post by Aztec Sunsfan » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:50 am

specialsauce wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:35 am
We already have our 1A and 1B. It’s time to get real contributors around DA and Book
Not sure we do. Devin looks like a great 2nd star, and Ayton has not shown the on-court mentality to be either, just the off-court talk.

I think any of us would instantly surrender any of them for the real difference makers around the league, so that tells a lot about how we truly feel about our Top two guys.

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