Would it surprise you though? That's what I'm wondering.
2020 Suns Draft Grade
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I'm the only A .. hooooomer!
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I'm taking the San Antonio cue that something wasn't quite right about Haliburton (I've no idea what) and JJ knows what he's doing.
Really I'd give a B+ but hey, let's go crazy.
Really I'd give a B+ but hey, let's go crazy.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
And only fool .. with Haliburton on the board it can't be a great grade if I think we got the lesser player or if I think we could have drafted Haliburton and traded down for Smith and an extra pick.
I think both are possible.
But am not unhappy with Smith as he was clearly JJ's guy and he looks good - his height, shooting% and work ethic suggest he'll succeed if CJ is anything to go by.
And in a volatile draft getting cute with a draft and trade back could have been costly.
So a B overall (and apologies for the thread drivel..).
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I went B as well. I honestly wasn't as in love with Haliburton as some others and I've been concerned about our frontcourt more than anything when it comes to depth, athleticism, rebounding and shotblocking when Ayton isn't out there. We've been talking about guys like Wood, Grant, Ibaka in FA but addressed a need on the cheap via the draft. I know you draft for talent and trade for need but sometimes both line up. Smith was probably a reach but I do believe in going and getting your guy when it comes to the draft and while Smith may have some limitations, we're good enough now that he shouldn't be asked to do more than what he's good at. I also think he's a great big to pair with Paul, maybe better than Ayton because he's a PnR threat and can play above the rim.
Some have said Smith may end up a backup...well we have Chris Paul, Book and Mikal and Cam on the perimeter so how many minutes would a rookie guard/swing really have seen anyway?
Some have said Smith may end up a backup...well we have Chris Paul, Book and Mikal and Cam on the perimeter so how many minutes would a rookie guard/swing really have seen anyway?
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I gave it a B. Smith is the kind of guy who can play for the Suns. He does address a need. But I felt we still need shot creators even more than we needed size.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I actually get the Suns' logic this year...
I had Smith and Bane as the two players they could move back and draft. I also had Smith as the best fit at the area of greatest need. Suns didn't find a deal they liked to move back a few slots, so they took the best guy for the biggest hole on the team: namely a back up PF / C who can:
* Hit the three
* Rebound
* Play better than average defense
All of these skills translate well to the NBA from college.
Yeah, he doesn't create his own offense and he's not a great passer. But hat's not what you need him for. You need someone to back up Ayton and / or Saric. You need a true PF to play alongside Ayton sometimes, and I think Smith will be a better defender than Saric in the long run.
I hated the Cam Johnson pick last year for going too early for no reason. Same thing happening here, but I don't hate it per se. Smith has some elite skills (rebounding, shot blocking), some very good ones (3 point shooting, interior rotations are good, runs the floor well, willing defender), and his weaknesses are either fixable (gets the yips on close outs), or not things that will keep him off the floor entirely (he can't guard small, speedy SFs and PFs on the perimeter). Some are fixable (needs more strength and mass, his frame is too skinny). He's only 20, he's likely to get better as a shooter and in terms of strength.
He's not going to be an all star. But he can play a role like a Myles Turner, Raef LaFrentz, or Channing Frye: perfect stretch 4/5 on a good team that makes everyone else around him better with help defense on the inside, and spacing on offence. People forget that when he was in Phoenix, every year he played with Nash, Frye was #1 or #2 in net +/- per 48 on the team.
During the offseason I made a comprehensive list of guys who:
* Are FAs this offseason
* Legit size to play PF (6'9" or above, 225 or above)
* Hit 3's at a rate above league average (36%+)
* Average or better rebounder
* Average or better defender
These are the attributes I saw as being needed in a paring with Rubio, Booker, and Bridges. Saric and Kaminsky were both bad most of the year. Cam Johnson is a SF. Baynes is being let go.
There were precisely 2 that met these criterion: Christian Wood and Paul Milsap. Neither of which we can afford (probably).
Thus, the way I look at it, we landed a guy who has the potential to give us some of what Christian Wood would have, at about 1/5th the price. If we'd landed Wood and CP3 in the offseason, the pundits would be wetting themselves.
Instead, they're scoffing.
I dunno, this feels like a win that other people can't see yet.
I had Smith and Bane as the two players they could move back and draft. I also had Smith as the best fit at the area of greatest need. Suns didn't find a deal they liked to move back a few slots, so they took the best guy for the biggest hole on the team: namely a back up PF / C who can:
* Hit the three
* Rebound
* Play better than average defense
All of these skills translate well to the NBA from college.
Yeah, he doesn't create his own offense and he's not a great passer. But hat's not what you need him for. You need someone to back up Ayton and / or Saric. You need a true PF to play alongside Ayton sometimes, and I think Smith will be a better defender than Saric in the long run.
I hated the Cam Johnson pick last year for going too early for no reason. Same thing happening here, but I don't hate it per se. Smith has some elite skills (rebounding, shot blocking), some very good ones (3 point shooting, interior rotations are good, runs the floor well, willing defender), and his weaknesses are either fixable (gets the yips on close outs), or not things that will keep him off the floor entirely (he can't guard small, speedy SFs and PFs on the perimeter). Some are fixable (needs more strength and mass, his frame is too skinny). He's only 20, he's likely to get better as a shooter and in terms of strength.
He's not going to be an all star. But he can play a role like a Myles Turner, Raef LaFrentz, or Channing Frye: perfect stretch 4/5 on a good team that makes everyone else around him better with help defense on the inside, and spacing on offence. People forget that when he was in Phoenix, every year he played with Nash, Frye was #1 or #2 in net +/- per 48 on the team.
During the offseason I made a comprehensive list of guys who:
* Are FAs this offseason
* Legit size to play PF (6'9" or above, 225 or above)
* Hit 3's at a rate above league average (36%+)
* Average or better rebounder
* Average or better defender
These are the attributes I saw as being needed in a paring with Rubio, Booker, and Bridges. Saric and Kaminsky were both bad most of the year. Cam Johnson is a SF. Baynes is being let go.
There were precisely 2 that met these criterion: Christian Wood and Paul Milsap. Neither of which we can afford (probably).
Thus, the way I look at it, we landed a guy who has the potential to give us some of what Christian Wood would have, at about 1/5th the price. If we'd landed Wood and CP3 in the offseason, the pundits would be wetting themselves.
Instead, they're scoffing.
I dunno, this feels like a win that other people can't see yet.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
They scoff because of opportunity cost but what if we use the money we saved not paying for Wood on a player that's better than Bane or Vassell? Or even Haliburton? I don't know if we can get that with the MLE but maybe in a Baynes sign and trade?
Go Suns!
Og Snus!
Og Snus!
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
If I were the Suns, I'd say our biggest need is back up PG. Carter can't really run an offense. Cam Payne wasn't awful, but not great. Take a flier on Chris Chiozza.
If the real Christian Wood lands in out lap for the full MLE, that's cool too, if unlikely.
If the real Christian Wood lands in out lap for the full MLE, that's cool too, if unlikely.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I think we're making too much out of the backup PG situation. If we get a DJ Augustin, cool. But if we're running a .5 offense and have bubble Dario running things, then Cam, Carter and even Smith become spot up shooters. Book and CP3 will be staggered as well. I think backup 2/3 is probably where we have a bigger need and the right 2/3 could even run some offense as well.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I disagree. There was a reason why Rubio had such a large +/- on off percentage last year. Not having a competent backup point guard killed our bench productivity all season until the bubble, when Payne was a revelation (one that I would love to see continue, but I wouldn't bet on it).ShelC wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:23 amI think we're making too much out of the backup PG situation. If we get a DJ Augustin, cool. But if we're running a .5 offense and have bubble Dario running things, then Cam, Carter and even Smith become spot up shooters. Book and CP3 will be staggered as well. I think backup 2/3 is probably where we have a bigger need and the right 2/3 could even run some offense as well.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
You already mentioned half of it, but while I’m not expecting Bubble Payne(no one is gonna shoot 50%+ from 3) I think he gives us more than anything we had pre-bubble. Moves Carter off ball(thank goodness) but also we moved Saric to the bench in the bubble. It allows him to play as a facilitator, which he’s good at. Add another 2/3 guy who can facilitate a bit and shoot, and I’m happy.jonh wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:37 amI disagree. There was a reason why Rubio had such a large +/- on off percentage last year. Not having a competent backup point guard killed our bench productivity all season until the bubble, when Payne was a revelation (one that I would love to see continue, but I wouldn't bet on it).ShelC wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:23 amI think we're making too much out of the backup PG situation. If we get a DJ Augustin, cool. But if we're running a .5 offense and have bubble Dario running things, then Cam, Carter and even Smith become spot up shooters. Book and CP3 will be staggered as well. I think backup 2/3 is probably where we have a bigger need and the right 2/3 could even run some offense as well.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I wonder if that is ultimately what drove Jones's thinking about the draft. If he feels that Payne's progress as a pg is sustainable, then I could see the justification for Smith.Split T wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:46 amYou already mentioned half of it, but while I’m not expecting Bubble Payne(no one is gonna shoot 50%+ from 3) I think he gives us more than anything we had pre-bubble. Moves Carter off ball(thank goodness) but also we moved Saric to the bench in the bubble. It allows him to play as a facilitator, which he’s good at. Add another 2/3 guy who can facilitate a bit and shoot, and I’m happy.jonh wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:37 amI disagree. There was a reason why Rubio had such a large +/- on off percentage last year. Not having a competent backup point guard killed our bench productivity all season until the bubble, when Payne was a revelation (one that I would love to see continue, but I wouldn't bet on it).ShelC wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:23 amI think we're making too much out of the backup PG situation. If we get a DJ Augustin, cool. But if we're running a .5 offense and have bubble Dario running things, then Cam, Carter and even Smith become spot up shooters. Book and CP3 will be staggered as well. I think backup 2/3 is probably where we have a bigger need and the right 2/3 could even run some offense as well.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
Ya very well could be. We shall see what we do in free agency. I don’t know that I’ve ever been right about what James Jones is thinking though, haha
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
Me either, obviously. Man, I should not pay attention to pre-draft information with this GM--it just kills me.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
If Book or Paul miss any significant time (especially at the same time) we are screwed. And both have a bad history of missing time.ShelC wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:23 amI think we're making too much out of the backup PG situation. If we get a DJ Augustin, cool. But if we're running a .5 offense and have bubble Dario running things, then Cam, Carter and even Smith become spot up shooters. Book and CP3 will be staggered as well. I think backup 2/3 is probably where we have a bigger need and the right 2/3 could even run some offense as well.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
Well hopefully next year it shouldn’t matter as much if we’re picking in the 20’s. Also maybe a pick in the 20’s is better for James Jones, he picks those guys in the lottery anyways, haha
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I gave the draft a C.
Smith looks like an interesting player, and he fills a need. He doesn't seem like he'll be a star, but he could be a rotation player and maybe even someday a starting PF if all goes well. I like the footage I've seen and the strengths he brings. I will like him even more if he can bring his good shooting with him to the NBA. He seemed to shoot well in the latter part of his NCAA season. I am a little skeptical about whether it will translate in the NBA; the shot is farther out, and his form has a bit of a full-body lurch to it that may make it hard for him to get open enough to get his shot off.
Based on the little I've read/seen of Smith, it does seem like he'd be a PF and would be able to play next to Ayton. I like that about him. And I like that he's a real PF and not a 3 masquerading as a 4, like when we try to play Cam or Bridges there.
I do want to give James Jones and the FO some benefit of the doubt. They've generally drafted well and made good trades and FA signings. I like the overall direction of the team. I especially like that they do think about things like character, work ethic, and team fit rather than just acquiring a bunch of assets to flip or players who don't work well together.
My main worry is about asset management. Last offseason we gave away some picks and assets to jettison players. And in both last draft and this draft, we seem to have drafted a guy 5-10 spots higher than anybody thought he would go. I respect that our FO knows who they want and goes after him rather than catering to what the mocks and experts want. But I wish Jones would learn how to maximize his bargaining position and trade down and pick up some extra picks while still being able to get "his" guy.
I also worry that we seem to be drafting for need rather than drafting the best available player. That's a classic drafting mistake. Who knows if PF will remain our biggest area of need going forward? Everybody eventually comes around and says you should draft the best player available and not worry about how they fit on your current roster. I worry that we aren't doing that.
Smith looks like an interesting player, and he fills a need. He doesn't seem like he'll be a star, but he could be a rotation player and maybe even someday a starting PF if all goes well. I like the footage I've seen and the strengths he brings. I will like him even more if he can bring his good shooting with him to the NBA. He seemed to shoot well in the latter part of his NCAA season. I am a little skeptical about whether it will translate in the NBA; the shot is farther out, and his form has a bit of a full-body lurch to it that may make it hard for him to get open enough to get his shot off.
Based on the little I've read/seen of Smith, it does seem like he'd be a PF and would be able to play next to Ayton. I like that about him. And I like that he's a real PF and not a 3 masquerading as a 4, like when we try to play Cam or Bridges there.
I do want to give James Jones and the FO some benefit of the doubt. They've generally drafted well and made good trades and FA signings. I like the overall direction of the team. I especially like that they do think about things like character, work ethic, and team fit rather than just acquiring a bunch of assets to flip or players who don't work well together.
My main worry is about asset management. Last offseason we gave away some picks and assets to jettison players. And in both last draft and this draft, we seem to have drafted a guy 5-10 spots higher than anybody thought he would go. I respect that our FO knows who they want and goes after him rather than catering to what the mocks and experts want. But I wish Jones would learn how to maximize his bargaining position and trade down and pick up some extra picks while still being able to get "his" guy.
I also worry that we seem to be drafting for need rather than drafting the best available player. That's a classic drafting mistake. Who knows if PF will remain our biggest area of need going forward? Everybody eventually comes around and says you should draft the best player available and not worry about how they fit on your current roster. I worry that we aren't doing that.
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
I'm with the worry crowd on this one.Split T wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:46 amYou already mentioned half of it, but while I’m not expecting Bubble Payne(no one is gonna shoot 50%+ from 3) I think he gives us more than anything we had pre-bubble. Moves Carter off ball(thank goodness) but also we moved Saric to the bench in the bubble. It allows him to play as a facilitator, which he’s good at. Add another 2/3 guy who can facilitate a bit and shoot, and I’m happy.jonh wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:37 amI disagree. There was a reason why Rubio had such a large +/- on off percentage last year. Not having a competent backup point guard killed our bench productivity all season until the bubble, when Payne was a revelation (one that I would love to see continue, but I wouldn't bet on it).ShelC wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:23 amI think we're making too much out of the backup PG situation. If we get a DJ Augustin, cool. But if we're running a .5 offense and have bubble Dario running things, then Cam, Carter and even Smith become spot up shooters. Book and CP3 will be staggered as well. I think backup 2/3 is probably where we have a bigger need and the right 2/3 could even run some offense as well.
Saric and Payne played well in the bubble, but I think that's a lot to expect of them over the course of a season. When CP3 is healthy, Monty may try to stagger his minutes with Booker so one of those guys is always on the court. But we are in trouble when CP3 misses games without another legit shot creator.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan
Re: 2020 Suns Draft Grade
If they miss significant time, it probably won't matter who's backing them up. There's only so much you can make up for with backups as we saw last year. If it's Haliburton or DJ Augustin starting and playing 30+ a night for Paul, we're probably screwed.Indy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:06 amIf Book or Paul miss any significant time (especially at the same time) we are screwed. And both have a bad history of missing time.ShelC wrote: ↑Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:23 amI think we're making too much out of the backup PG situation. If we get a DJ Augustin, cool. But if we're running a .5 offense and have bubble Dario running things, then Cam, Carter and even Smith become spot up shooters. Book and CP3 will be staggered as well. I think backup 2/3 is probably where we have a bigger need and the right 2/3 could even run some offense as well.