Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

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Ring_Wanted
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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Ring_Wanted » Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:17 am

Mori Chu wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:46 pm
...his P&R skills aren't perfect yet. But he hasn't really been running that play with such frequency until CP3 arrived. It's been a few months. He's working on it. He is already a lot better at it than he was at the start of the season. With all the complaining about his being a coward, you guys act like he never tries to dunk or go to the basket.
For what it's worth, among players with at least 2 pick and roll actions per game, Ayton ranks #5 overall in points per possession and in scoring frequency. Granted, his team doesn't go to him nearly as much as it's the case with other big men like Gobert or Allen, as his p+r frequency is just 15'7% (on par with the likes of AD, KAT, Jokic and Bam, but those are creators, not mere 'executors').
I think it's a mistake to be impatient with a talented young big man. He needs time to continue to develop. Sorry he isn't Amare and he isn't a #1 option right out of school. That isn't what he is. Let go of the #1 pick / Luka stuff. Ayton is good. He fits our offense well and leaves lots of shots for our sharp-shooting swingmen and ball-dominant guards. He anchors our defense and makes up for our mediocre perimeter defenders. You guys are so mad that Ayton isn't some other type of player, you don't appreciate the player he is, and the player he is becoming.
Agreed.

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ShelC
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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by ShelC » Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:27 am

I think a lot of us are over DA not being a true "#1 pick" and the fact that he's not Luka or someone else. I think we recognize who and what he is at this point. Right now, it's more frustrating and upsetting his lack of consistency and effort and the debate is whether those things can be developed. But even Monty has been going away from him to close out games, which isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of him come winning time.

We know we're better off with him when he's focused, active and engaged.

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Indy
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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Indy » Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:04 am

He is basically as impactful to our team this season as Jae Crowder.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Superbone » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:46 am

His effort and level of play is extremely inconsistent and that is very frustrating. He's had stretches of monster games (not so much this season) and then stretches of substandard games, like now. On top of that, he was the #1 pick in a loaded draft. There are good reasons to be frustrated with him.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. ACCOMPLISHED! 34 wins in a shortened season! Like it mattered. We rarely see Wormwood anyway!

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by specialsauce » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:52 am

Indy wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:04 am
He is basically as impactful to our team this season as Jae Crowder.
Incorrect, he is less impactful. He has the lowest net rating of any rotation player. I’ll say it a different way, nobody that gets meaningful minutes aside from Frank is less impactful than DA.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Indy » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:58 am

I think the net ratings are a bit wonky, as they try and summarize everything that happens in a game down to a single number.

For example, if you look at the net ratings from Bbref, it is very different from NBA.com. At BBref, Jae is flat (110 for both Off and Def) and Ayton is a +14 (121 vs 107).

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Split T
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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Split T » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:03 am

I think they’re measuring two different things. Nba.com is measuring the team off and def rating when a certain player is on the court. Bbref is measuring the players individual off and def rating when they finish a play or are the primary defender.

Either way, they still are a bit wonky. Advanced stats still have a long ways to go in basketball. Just the fact that DA is 3rd on the team in WS is making me realize WS isn’t a great stat.
Split: I would trade DA for SGA right now(11-24-2020)

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by phatmike » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:11 am

I guess I am so frustrated with DA because in my mind it comes down to this: If DA had any form of consistency and upward trend happening, I really think this team has a legitimate (if outside) chance of making a finals run especially in this crazy year. Without it, I don't know if I see it happening. Maybe that's too much of a burden for fans to put on him. It probably isn't fair. But dammit long time suns fans are HUNGRY and this is the first time we've had a taste of "what if"

So I guess I'll go prep up snow cones and orange slices for DA's participation in this year's season.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Mori Chu » Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:06 am

I think a lot of the Ayton anger is just because he was a #1 overall pick. Expectations on him are sky-high because of where he was drafted and who was drafted after him. If Mikal Bridges had been a #1 overall pick, wouldn't you be pissed that he wasn't a "go-to guy"? Isn't his draft placement a big part of how you're evaluating him?

I try to ask myself not, "Is Ayton performing like a #1 overall pick?" and instead, "Is he performing well as a starting NBA center, given the other pieces around him?"

I actually think Ayton is 2-3 plays per game away from making people happy. He blows 1-2 catches, he softballs a dunk attempt, he passes out from good inside position. If he makes a few of those plays differently, he probably gets another 3-4 points per game and has one or two more "F yeah" moments per game. Then everybody is happy with him and stops freaking out.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by specialsauce » Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:30 am

I think there are so many 5’s out there that could be more impactful on this team, forget about being a star or a #1 pick. I just want to stop going in to 75% of our games thinking we are at a disadvantage at the 5 spot. I want to get through one game without DA passing the ball out from underneath the basket (assuming he hasn’t fumbled it away first) or half assing it back on defense like he’s got 45 year old knees. I’d love to see him be the bully instead of constantly getting bullied by other big men and drooling over them post game. I’d love to see him upset about being benched in the fourth quarter for the last week.

I just want a 5 that plays like a 5 and has a drive to win that complements the rest of our team. I don’t need an All-Star.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by specialsauce » Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:35 am

Split T wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:03 am
I think they’re measuring two different things. Nba.com is measuring the team off and def rating when a certain player is on the court. Bbref is measuring the players individual off and def rating when they finish a play or are the primary defender.

Either way, they still are a bit wonky. Advanced stats still have a long ways to go in basketball. Just the fact that DA is 3rd on the team in WS is making me realize WS isn’t a great stat.
Correct, so if you want to see how impactful a player is to a TEAM, just take a look at his team on/off rating. It absolutely passes the eye test too- Dario has been so good this year and our team has consistently gone on runs with him on the court. This is reflected in that.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Indy » Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:03 pm

specialsauce wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:30 am
I think there are so many 5’s out there that could be more impactful on this team, forget about being a star or a #1 pick. I just want to stop going in to 75% of our games thinking we are at a disadvantage at the 5 spot. I want to get through one game without DA passing the ball out from underneath the basket (assuming he hasn’t fumbled it away first) or half assing it back on defense like he’s got 45 year old knees. I’d love to see him be the bully instead of constantly getting bullied by other big men and drooling over them post game. I’d love to see him upset about being benched in the fourth quarter for the last week.

I just want a 5 that plays like a 5 and has a drive to win that complements the rest of our team. I don’t need an All-Star.
As much disappointment I have in Ayton's play, there is no way he is in the bottom 25% of starting NBA centers.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by specialsauce » Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:14 pm

Indy wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:03 pm
specialsauce wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:30 am
I think there are so many 5’s out there that could be more impactful on this team, forget about being a star or a #1 pick. I just want to stop going in to 75% of our games thinking we are at a disadvantage at the 5 spot. I want to get through one game without DA passing the ball out from underneath the basket (assuming he hasn’t fumbled it away first) or half assing it back on defense like he’s got 45 year old knees. I’d love to see him be the bully instead of constantly getting bullied by other big men and drooling over them post game. I’d love to see him upset about being benched in the fourth quarter for the last week.

I just want a 5 that plays like a 5 and has a drive to win that complements the rest of our team. I don’t need an All-Star.
As much disappointment I have in Ayton's play, there is no way he is in the bottom 25% of starting NBA centers.
I don’t either when he’s engaged, but then you have players like Jonas Valanciunas tea bagging him and Enes Kanter outplaying him when he is half assing it. Hell he gets dad dicked by Boban.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Indy » Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:20 pm

Kanter is 2nd in the NBA in offensive rebounds. It is kind of his thing. I think it was less about Kanter outplaying him, and more about Ayton not bothering to even show up that game.

And JV is bigger than Ayton and has been playing basketball at least twice as long.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by specialsauce » Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:23 pm

Indy wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:20 pm
Kanter is 2nd in the NBA in offensive rebounds. It is kind of his thing. I think it was less about Kanter outplaying him, and more about Ayton not bothering to even show up that game.

And JV is bigger than Ayton and has been playing basketball at least twice as long.
You just made two excuses for why Ayton gets outplayed by inferior talent, yet I believe you would want to throw $20M annually at him. Am I correct? I could say the same thing about Steven Adams ALWAYS neutralizing him. Boban dominating him and AYton drooling over his size. Etc etc etc.

Of course it’s always more about Ayton not bothering. He’s a lazy and soft man. Wont change. He won’t just find motivation as he gets older.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Indy » Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:46 pm

JV is a better player than Ayton.

And I don't want to pay Ayton 20M/year for the next 5 years. I think he is worth that in today's NBA, but I don't think we should be the one paying him that.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by specialsauce » Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:54 pm

You’re in the minority there with me it seems.

Jonas is making $15M annually. I wouldn’t pay DA any more. To be honest I would prefer a different player altogether, I’d be okay with a lower ceiling with a higher motor.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Shabazz » Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:18 pm

For all of these centers that we're comparing Ayton to, it's worth taking a look at where they were after 146 career games. Vucevic, for example, had a lot of the same issues, but also sucked on D. Jonas V was averaging 12-8-1.2.

I know the bigger issue is the mental stuff, but the stretch pre-bubble last year gives me some hope that Ayton can get back to where he was.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by Indy » Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:47 pm

Shabazz wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:18 pm
For all of these centers that we're comparing Ayton to, it's worth taking a look at where they were after 146 career games. Vucevic, for example, had a lot of the same issues, but also sucked on D. Jonas V was averaging 12-8-1.2.
That is a fair point. Although probably more appropriate to think of them in the middle of their 3rd season--after all it is Ayton's fault he was suspended.

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Re: Game Day: Pacers (16-20) @ Suns (25-11), Sat 3/13/21

Post by specialsauce » Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:04 pm

Shabazz wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:18 pm
For all of these centers that we're comparing Ayton to, it's worth taking a look at where they were after 146 career games. Vucevic, for example, had a lot of the same issues, but also sucked on D. Jonas V was averaging 12-8-1.2.

I know the bigger issue is the mental stuff, but the stretch pre-bubble last year gives me some hope that Ayton can get back to where he was.
You can accept youth as an excuse for mistakes, lack of skills, etc. but not effort, aggression or hands. You either have those or you don’t.

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