Suns News: Week 16 (1/31 to 2/5)

[Split T]

If no one gets to it I will link it tonight, little busy at work at the moment, but saw this and wanted to share:

[In2ition]

Trae Young would be the perfect 3rd guard, haha.

[JeremyG]

Amusingly enough, I think we can start talking about "magic numbers" to at least get into the play-in game right now. It'd be 11 from where things stand right now, right?

Yep. We have won 20 more games than 10th place Portland, and they have 31 games left (we have 32). So if we win 11 more games they can't catch us.

Falling below the 10th place team still doesn't drop us out of the top 10. It's the Pelicans in 11th who would have to pass us.

[Split T]

Hollinger article on The Athletic:

What do you get for the team that has everything?

That twist on the old Christmas gift dilemma applies pretty well to Phoenix as we head into the trade deadline.

You do remember the Suns, right? The team that was two games from winning the 2021 championship? Well, it turns out they’re having a nice season.

OK, more than nice. They’re 40-9! How is this not a bigger deal?!?!

While we entertain ourselves tracking fake Ben Simmons trades and the upstart Lakers’ thrilling chase for sixth place, Phoenix is quietly running away from the rest of the league — on pace for a 67-win season while dominating on defense (second) and offense (third). Having already put together an 18-game winning streak, they’ve now won 10 in a row heading into Tuesday’s game against Brooklyn. On paper, Kyrie Irving and the Nets have no shot. (Sorry.)

Given Phoenix’s weird knack for finishing games with more points than the opponent, it’s probably well beyond time we revisit the Suns’ awesome season. It’s been a while since we talked about them, and they’re still balling out.

In particular, we need to talk about what Phoenix’s play might mean for the postseason. On one level, it’s easy to see why the Suns’ domination has gone under the radar. The Warriors caught more of our attention in the season’s opening weeks, and besides, it’s not like we weren’t expecting Phoenix to be good. Once the big win streak ended, the Suns just weren’t a capital-S story.

But there’s another reason here as well. In an era when we’ve been conditioned to mentally write off superior regular-season performance, we instead focus more on superstars, and especially multiple superstars in the same town.

Thus, despite their dominant record, if you ask most fans about the Suns possibly romping to the title, you’re immediately met with … Ehhhhhhhh.

You see, these Suns are the definition of a “nice” team. They have a lot of good players. They win most of their games. They just don’t have the one guy who immediately strikes fear and trembling.

Even if they win 60-whatever games, that doesn’t change the basic picture. Phoenix is built differently, and as a result, the Suns represent a more interesting question: Is this the year a team with an ensemble cast wins the championship?

Not that the Suns aren’t without stars — Chris Paul is going to stroll into Springfield the second he’s eligible, and Devin Booker is an absolutely lethal scorer.

But if you make a list of the top 10 players in the league, there probably aren’t any Suns on it. And for a top-tier contender, that makes them an anomaly. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a team win the championship without That Dude as the centerpiece.

The last 10 NBA champions, for instance, had either Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard or LeBron James on their roster. Steph and Giannis are angling to make it 11.

This is not a new trend either. Add just five more players — Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon — and you can account for all but three champions since 1990.

Conversely, a championship run by Phoenix would enter the Suns in an exclusive club, of those teams that won a title without having either a first-team All-NBA player or a no-doubt-about-it, in-his-prime superstar on the roster. (For examples of the latter: Leonard in 2019, Curry in 2017 and Dirk Nowitzki in 2011 were second-team choices; Olajuwon was a third-team pick in 1995 before murdering the league in his playoff blitzkrieg.)

Since the advent of the Bird and Magic era in 1980, the “ensemble cast champion” has been roughly a once-in-a-decade phenomenon:

Detroit Pistons, 1989 and 1990 — Similar to this current iteration of Suns, the Pistons had a veteran Hall of Fame point guard past his peak but still playing at a high level in Isiah Thomas. Amazingly, the Pistons didn’t have a single player on any of the three All-NBA teams in 1989. They won 63 games! How did this possibly happen? We put Julius Randle on the second team because the Knicks went 41-31, for crying out loud. America was a harder, tougher place in 1989.
Detroit Pistons, 2004 — Oh, you guys again. This iteration won a title with an awesome defense and Ben Wallace making second-team All-NBA. Detroit’s five starters combined to play in only 16 All-Star games; I believe this is the fewest of any modern champion by a wide margin, save for recent teams like the Bucks and Raptors that are still accumulating credentials.
San Antonio Spurs, 2014 – Tim Duncan was still good, but he wasn’t a centerpiece superstar anymore; Leonard was still on his way up, and Tony Parker was the team’s leading scorer and top All-NBA vote-getter (he made second team). This club is probably the peak version of an ensemble cast-type team, with four shoo-in Hall of Famers, an elite role-playing wing (Danny Green) and nine starter-caliber players in the rotation. They could have gone back-to-back too if Ray Allen hadn’t happened.
That’s four “ensemble cast” teams in a little over four decades; since the Bad Boys did it twice, we have just three roster iterations that pulled it off. Sure, a couple of others came close (the 2000 Blazers and 2002 Kings come to mind most painfully), but either way, we’re talking about a relatively rare event.

That’s it. That’s the history the Suns are up against. (Well, in addition to their own).

Go back and look at those title teams above, and you’ll notice something: To offset the lack of an A-lister, the lineup of their top seven or eight players had to be absolutely rock solid. All good players in the starting lineup, all pieces that fit coming off the pine, no weak links.

The good news here is that the Suns appear to qualify on all fronts. They can play big or small, have size, shooting and multiple shot creators, and can kill you with speed even though they normally play slow. That was the case a year ago too, except with one glaring exception that came back to bite them. Milwaukee exposed the Suns’ glaring lack of quality size in the Finals by mashing the smaller Suns on the offensive glass, particularly any time Deandre Ayton checked out.

They’ve addressed that and then some. Free-agent addition JaVale McGee has been one of the league’s top value additions, providing a mobile, rim-running, shot-blocking big man who could have been a difference-maker last June. The playoff injury to Dario Saric has also taught Phoenix the value of redundancy; plucking Bismack Biyombo off his couch and into the rotation has added a third center who can fill the same role if one of their top two goes down.

As we head into the trade deadline, though, there is still the tantalizing question of what else Phoenix might want. Sure, you don’t want to mess with 40-9, but the Suns have benefited both from relatively good health and a relatively weak schedule.

Additionally, the Suns need to think hard about redundancy and potential problems, to avert the type of situation that happened in their frontcourt a year ago. One of the biggest, underrated threats to a team built this way is that it needs the entire ensemble. An injury to any of the Suns’ four best players would be critical in a way that, say, an injury to a non-Embiid Sixer is not. Effectively, they’re four times as vulnerable. A front office can’t predict who will be injured, obviously, but they can anticipate where the biggest risks lie.

These types of questions are unthinkable luxuries for most, available only to teams that have already solved the more basic questions of team building and completed them while somehow keeping their asset powder dry. Unusually for a title contender in full bloom, the Suns have done so. They stand $7.3 million below the luxury-tax line, have expiring contacts to put in deals and can put at least two future firsts into a trade if need be (their 2022 pick will go to Oklahoma City, but the Suns could put in their “next available” picks in 2024 and 2026).

If the Suns are arming themselves, the thing they have to wonder about most is upgrading the backup guard situation behind Paul and Booker. That’s where Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne have been … fine. Acceptable. Certainly good enough to get them through the regular season. But Shamet was played off the court in the Brooklyn-Milwaukee series a year ago and hasn’t exactly blasted off in Phoenix. Meanwhile, Payne — who was legitimately good in the 2021 postseason, including winning Game 2 of the conference finals for them while Paul was out — just hasn’t played anywhere near the level he did a year ago, slumping to a 49.8 true shooting percentage after his 60.2 mark in 2020-21.

We haven’t heard a peep about Phoenix trade rumors, but the thought of a major backcourt upgrade has to at least make you wonder, right? Adding a Vinnie Johnson to Paul and Booker’s Isiah and Dumars? For instance, with Saric out for the season and on the books at $9.2 million next year, could the Suns trade him, Jalen Smith, Frank Kaminsky and a first in 2024 to Portland for Norman Powell? What about that same package to Houston for Eric Gordon and Jae’Sean Tate?

Any moves that take on money come with major luxury-tax implications for next year, when a max or near-max extension for Ayton will push the Suns several million dollars into the tax. But this is the cost of doing business as a contender, and Phoenix has managed to contend at the highest levels for two seasons without having to take the tax leap.

All of this makes the Suns the most interesting team that nobody is talking about right now, and not just on the court. On the one hand, they’re cruising through the regular season and likely headed toward home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. On the other, they need every edge they can get to overcome long historical odds against teams with their profile.

They don’t “need” anything in the traditional sense, and any moves they fail to make aren’t going to bite them until at least mid-May. But as James Jones and company take aim at the franchise’s first championship, it’s still fair to wonder if they’re one more move away.

[Indy]

But if you make a list of the top 10 players in the league, there probably aren’t any Suns on it. And for a top-tier contender, that makes them an anomaly. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a team win the championship without That Dude as the centerpiece.

Hollinger is an idiot. I really want him to show us his list of the top 10 players this season. I realize I am a Suns fan, but I think I would hard-pressed to not have Book and CP3 on it.

Top 3 locks: Embiid, Jokic, Giannis

Next 5: Ja, Harden, Luka, Lebron, KD (these 2 might drop out if they miss a lot more games)

Who rounds out the top 10? You could've made a case for Curry if we were still in December. You could argue Draymond, too.

Tell me that Book and/or CP3 don't belong in one of those groups...

[Split T]

If I had a top 10 mvp ballot:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Giannis
4. CP3
5. Ja
6. KD
7. LeBron
8. Curry
9. Derozan
10.Rudy

Book and Draymond are probably next. Then Luka.

[In2ition]

Hollinger has some vendetta type hate for the Suns, for some reason that is unknown right now. It might actually be justified, but it just seems unmerited and personal so far.

[pickle]

But if you make a list of the top 10 players in the league, there probably aren’t any Suns on it. And for a top-tier contender, that makes them an anomaly. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a team win the championship without That Dude as the centerpiece.

Hollinger is an idiot. I really want him to show us his list of the top 10 players this season. I realize I am a Suns fan, but I think I would hard-pressed to not have Book and CP3 on it.

Top 3 locks: Embiid, Jokic, Giannis

Next 5: Ja, Harden, Luka, Lebron, KD (these 2 might drop out if they miss a lot more games)

Who rounds out the top 10? You could've made a case for Curry if we were still in December. You could argue Draymond, too.

Tell me that Book and/or CP3 don't belong in one of those groups...

You are missing Andrew Wiggins.

Why is Luka in there tho? He has picked up a bit but the first two months weren’t pretty.

[pickle]

Hollinger has some vendetta type hate for the Suns, for some reason that is unknown right now. It might actually be justified, but it just seems unmerited and personal so far.

Does he really? I think CP3 and Booker aren’t known as top 10 players in the NBA by reputation and it’s ok… I don’t know if I can deal with too many bandwagon fans myself. I kind of root against the Warriors for that reason alone and don’t want that for my favorite team.

[In2ition]

Lol, true about Wiggins.

My son was telling me last night that Desmond Bane has very similar numbers as Wiggins. Maybe the Warrior fans can make the case that Desmond should have been a starter too.

[Split T]

Ya I don’t really have a problem with him saying the suns don’t have a top 10 guy. I didn’t have the suns with a top 10 guy coming into the season. I think I’m evaluating just this season, you have to include Paul and/or Booker in the mvp discussion because we’ve won so much, but the truth is we don’t have a tier 1 guy. Though I think Paul and Booker fit so well together that they make up for it.

Honestly, the title would feel more special if we won it without a true tier 1 superstar. As the article states, it’s only happened 4 times since the 80’s. It’s the most difficult way to win a title.

[Indy]

But if you make a list of the top 10 players in the league, there probably aren’t any Suns on it. And for a top-tier contender, that makes them an anomaly. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a team win the championship without That Dude as the centerpiece.

Hollinger is an idiot. I really want him to show us his list of the top 10 players this season. I realize I am a Suns fan, but I think I would hard-pressed to not have Book and CP3 on it.

Top 3 locks: Embiid, Jokic, Giannis

Next 5: Ja, Harden, Luka, Lebron, KD (these 2 might drop out if they miss a lot more games)

Who rounds out the top 10? You could've made a case for Curry if we were still in December. You could argue Draymond, too.

Tell me that Book and/or CP3 don't belong in one of those groups...

You are missing Andrew Wiggins.

Why is Luka in there tho? He has picked up a bit but the first two months weren’t pretty.

26/9/9 while improving his defense a ton and up to 1.2 steals and .5 blocks per game.

[Indy]

If I had a top 10 mvp ballot:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Giannis
4. CP3
5. Ja
6. KD
7. LeBron
8. Curry
9. Derozan
10.Rudy

Book and Draymond are probably next. Then Luka.

So this is MVP or best players? Because I think of those as very different. Guys on mediocre teams shouldn't be on MVP ballots in my mind, but they absolutely could be a top 10 player.

[Split T]

If I had a top 10 mvp ballot:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Giannis
4. CP3
5. Ja
6. KD
7. LeBron
8. Curry
9. Derozan
10.Rudy

Book and Draymond are probably next. Then Luka.

So this is MVP or best players? Because I think of those as very different. Guys on mediocre teams shouldn't be on MVP ballots in my mind, but they absolutely could be a top 10 player.

MVP…I think Hollinger has a pretty good point if we’re just talking best players. I keep a list of my top players in the league and while I haven’t updated it recently it doesn’t have CP3 or Book in the top 10. They are 11 and 17.

Tier 1A
1. Giannis
2. KD
3. Jokic
4. Curry
5. LeBron
6. Embiid

Tier 1B
7. Butler
8. Luka
9. Harden
10. Kawhi

Tier 2
11. CP3
12. Ja
13. Trae
14. AD
15. PG
16. KAT
17. Booker

[Indy]

Maybe if you mean in a perfect situation. But this season? I just can't see Curry as a top 4 player this year with how bad he's been recently. And Kawhi as top 10. He hasn't even played.

[wpmiller42]

But if you make a list of the top 10 players in the league, there probably aren’t any Suns on it. And for a top-tier contender, that makes them an anomaly. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a team win the championship without That Dude as the centerpiece.

Hollinger is an idiot. I really want him to show us his list of the top 10 players this season. I realize I am a Suns fan, but I think I would hard-pressed to not have Book and CP3 on it.

Top 3 locks: Embiid, Jokic, Giannis

Next 5: Ja, Harden, Luka, Lebron, KD (these 2 might drop out if they miss a lot more games)

Who rounds out the top 10? You could've made a case for Curry if we were still in December. You could argue Draymond, too.

Tell me that Book and/or CP3 don't belong in one of those groups...

I don't know why people don't see what a great player Booker is. I think your list is solid, and I'd put Booker solidly ahead of Harden, and just ahead of Ja. I think I even like him more than Luka, but maybe that's my Suns fan bias.

[Indy]

I think Harden is a better player than Book right now, but that probably changes very soon. I think the rule changes helped a Book a lot, but Harden made himself an MVP by figuring out how to use the rules in his favor. He might figure it out again.

[Split T]

Maybe if you mean in a perfect situation. But this season? I just can't see Curry as a top 4 player this year with how bad he's been recently. And Kawhi as top 10. He hasn't even played.

Ya again, I haven’t updated it in a couple months and it’s not meant to represent just this season. I just threw Kawhi at the end of the tier I think he’s in.

If I updated it, Curry would move down a bit, probably drop into the tier below.

[bajanguy008]

Thanks for posting the article Split
Interesting perspective and I like this discussion it has sparked

[Split T]

I think Harden is a better player than Book right now, but that probably changes very soon. I think the rule changes helped a Book a lot, but Harden made himself an MVP by figuring out how to use the rules in his favor. He might figure it out again.

Book needs to get his efficiency back up. That’s the one thing holding him back a bit. His drop in assists is pretty easily explainable by CP3 taking over most of the playmaking, but you’d think that’d free up Book to be more efficient. His problem is he doesn’t get to the rim or draw enough fouls. That’s what’s keeping him below guys like Butler, Luka, Harden, Ja, etc. He either needs to find more easy buckets/fouls or he needs to ramp his 3 point shooting up.