Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

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Split T
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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Split T »

He’s no Suns fan so I don’t think he’s worried about any jinx…you are right that it’s definitely not over as anything can happen, but I think it’s at the point where something out of the ordinary would have to happen, like an injury, for GS to catch us…especially since Draymond is already out

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Nodack »

One game at a time.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by In2ition »

Split T wrote:
Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:10 am
I know that Matt Moore has admitted he was wrong about his preseason prediction that the Suns wouldn't hit the over on their wins totals, but it just makes it even more obvious just how wrong he was. I called his prediction laughable at the time, but he's the expert.
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Split T
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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Split T »

In2ition wrote:
Mon Feb 14, 2022 11:22 am
Split T wrote:
Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:10 am
I know that Matt Moore has admitted he was wrong about his preseason prediction that the Suns wouldn't hit the over on their wins totals, but it just makes it even more obvious just how wrong he was. I called his prediction laughable at the time, but he's the expert.
Ya he was way off…I think the over/under was pretty low too, like 52 or something. He also picked the nuggets to beat the suns in round 2. He covers the nuggets so he’s got a bit of a blind spot there, but he really doesn’t believe in the suns.

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Split T
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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Split T »

Let’s say everyone continues what they’ve been doing, so stats are essentially the same and teams stay in the same spot, so:

Suns go 67-15
Warriors go 61-21 and get 2nd
Bucks and 76ers finish 4 and 5 and go 50-32
Nuggets go 45-37 and finish 6th

Who wins MVP?

I thought CP3 had no chance, but if the suns really finish 17-22 games ahead of the 3 best mvp candidates, you have to consider it. I think 50 wins should be an absolute necessity and there’s a chance none of those teams hit 50. Of course they may just give it to Steph in that case. In reality, one of those 3 teams will probably go on a run and whoever does will get the mvp.

Still, I think CP3 is very much in this. Go win 67 games and if he keeps up what he’s been doing lately and bumps his stats up a bit and his efficiency, he could win.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by In2ition »

You would think he or Book have to have a shot at it. It feels wrong to just dismiss them, with what they've done this yr.
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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Split T »

In 2022, CP3 has averaged 15.9 points, 12.2 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 1.7 steals and only 2.4 turnovers. He’s shot 49/37/84 and the suns are 19-2.

Hate to say it, but Nash won an mvp with lesser numbers on a lesser team.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Flagrant Fowl »

No hate about it, the numbers speak the truth. Paul is having the best PG season in Suns history.

From an 'intangibles' perspective, it would be something special if the Suns win 65+ games and don't have an MVP. It would just further galvanize their identity as a complete team.
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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Mori Chu »

I think for the Suns to get an MVP, you'd have to have a few things come together. You'd have to have the Suns get the #1 record in the league; you'd need CP3 to play all 82 games healthy and keep his current numbers. Then the narrative would be what a warrior he is, how he's 5th in the league in minutes or whatever, how he never takes a day off, leadership, etc. I don't think they would give it to Booker because there's still a stigma that this is CP3's team and that his arrival is why we are so good now. You'd probably also need Denver to not rise much higher in the standings (to avoid Jokic winning) and you'd want to see Philly regress a bit with Harden (to avoid Embiid winning). Even with all that, I dunno; CP3's numbers are not really the sort of numbers that win an MVP. But of course I'd love to see it.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Flagrant Fowl »

I'm pretty sure Embiid is going to win the MVP. I think he's the MVP as of today and the Sixers will improve with Harden.

I know almost everyone here likes to shit on Harden and he's done plenty to deserve criticism for how he's handled himself over the past two years. But don't forget that he's arguably the best guard in the league when he wants to be and he's always wanted to be in Philly ever since starting his push out of Houston. Even when he went to Brooklyn there was a good stretch last season when people were talking about him as MVP despite being overweight and not acclimated to the team.

Harden is already out until after the All-Star break, but the Sixers will have 24 games remaining so it's highly probable they win 50+ games. I estimate they'll be somewhere around 52-30, which is plenty good enough of a team record for Embiid to get the MVP.
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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Split T »

Ya I think it’s a stretch, but if Milwaukee, Philly, and Denver all end up as 5 seeds or lower with like 45-49 wins and maybe GS falters a bit down the stretch and ends up with 55-59 wins and we hit the 67+ wins threshold, people will look at it. And yes, CP3 would have to play the whole season and end up at like 16/11/5/2 and bump his TS closer to 60%. A 10 game lead over everybody would be hard to ignore. Especially a 20 game lead over the 3 biggest mvp candidates.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Split T »

Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Mon Feb 14, 2022 1:21 pm
I'm pretty sure Embiid is going to win the MVP. I think he's the MVP as of today and the Sixers will improve with Harden.

I know almost everyone here likes to shit on Harden and he's done plenty to deserve criticism for how he's handled himself over the past two years. But don't forget that he's arguably the best guard in the league when he wants to be and he's always wanted to be in Philly ever since starting his push out of Houston. Even when he went to Brooklyn there was a good stretch last season when people were talking about him as MVP despite being overweight and not acclimated to the team.

Harden is already out until after the All-Star break, but the Sixers will have 24 games remaining so it's highly probable they win 50+ games. I estimate they'll be somewhere around 52-30, which is plenty good enough of a team record for Embiid to get the MVP.
Ya and I think the media seems to want to give it to Embiid. If there’s a way to justify it, they will. But if he misses 10 games down the stretch and they finish at 47-35, it might be hard to give it to him over CP3 on a 67-15 team.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by The Bobster »

As great as Harden is offensively, he offsets some of that with his embarrassingly-bad effort on defense.

When you take defense into account Embiid, Giannis, Paul and Jokic are all a good distance ahead of where Harden might finish.
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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Split T »

Oh for sure, I think FF mostly meant he’ll help Embiid get wins and bolster Embiid’s case. Harden won’t win mvp this year.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by 3rdside »

pickle wrote:
Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:18 pm
I disagree. In an ordinary year, sure it’s fine to weigh the value of the player vs. their salary. In a year when we are the best team in the league and Ayton is a key piece, where one of our top players is 37 and our window is not forever, I really can’t imagine any serious member of this team or any fan would willingly jeopardize the best chance this franchise has had at a championship for a few million dollars in a non-repeater tax. We also keep hearing about the upcoming media deal where even if we max Ayton we may only be a tax payer for a year. So if with all of that we still assume that Sarver is going to blow up the team to save a few bucks, we may as well just give up on the team altogether and start rooting for the Knicks. Dolan is equally bad but he’s at least willing to spend.
Salary Cap - Luxury Tax this year: $112m - $136m
Salary Cap - Luxury Tax next year: $121m - $147m

Suns salary this year: $136m
Suns salary next year: $165m*

*This is based on a full roster of salaries that mimics this year's salaries e.g. the numbers in red in the attached image are actually $0 for this year, but I've copied the previous year's salary over. Ayton's salary is $16m next year which we know is unrealistic.

But ..

Using the lower Ayton salary of $16m, for $165m in total roster salaries, we'll pay $38.5m in luxury tax which sounds like a lot, but it's not like other teams aren't doing something similar (https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/ - interesting to see Milwaukee here), so there does appear to be a financial case for an Ayton max, or at least something close to it, as this really is the Chris Paul window ... but we'll need to get off the Saric and Shamet contracts at least.

And that looks only justifiable for next year - the 2 years after that we'll need to pay Johnson and Chris Paul will be 39 / 40yo by then which has all the makings of injuries + cap hell.

We weren't interested in paying Ayton the max this past offseason and I've seen nothing this season from him that suggests the FO were wrong in their assessment, in which case a sign and trade this offseason looks the more likely outcome.


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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by 3rdside »

If we're just talking about this season right now, then I agree I wouldn't swap Ayton for Sabonis .. in the upcoming off season it's a different story.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Aztec Sunsfan »

Split T wrote:
Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:26 am
Hopefully they go with someone else out of the team. This prize usually makes the player and team more of a target and kind of overlooks his teammates merits on the overall success.

Paul’s value to the team extends beyond the court big time, but on court he is no longer capable to carry us trough a full 7 games, 48 minutes effort, we have Booker doing the heavy lifting offensively, Ayton defensively and Mikal in between. Since last year, the team showed that we were vulnerable but not doomed without Paul. Nash’s Suns in the other hand, were notoriously different (for worse) just by him sitting on the bench, and while we had Prime Marion and Prime Amare, it was just that way during all of Steve’s tenure.

So, as we have an authentic TEAM in our hands, it’s better that MVP goes elsewhere and Suns use it as fuel, than the other way around, plus a potential debate about it landing inside (unlikely, but posible, Joe Johnson and Marion certainly resent it)

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by MightyMoog »

I thought our two best chances with Nash was the first year and Amare’s last year. The first year we had JJ that could facilitate and offense when Nash sat. And by the end Goran had grown into a competent backup. I really wished we had not panicked and stayed the course.

That being said, I really like Monty’s and JJ’s leadership of this franchise. Smart moves, no desperation and no excuses.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by Split T »

The problem with 05 is the spurs were just too good. They were the one team in the league we couldn’t beat. Had JJ been healthy I still think we lose.

I think we actually were close in 06. Just weren’t healthy. Had we been healthy, we beat Dallas and I think Miami too. We ran Shaq off the court that year in the regular season.

07 was close too. If we beat the Spurs we win the whole thing.

08 we never should’ve traded Marion for Shaq. Not saying we win, but we blew any chance we had with that trade. Honestly should have done whatever we needed to to get KG.

10 was one of my favorite teams, but I do think they played over their heads a bit. I don’t know if we win the title that year if we beat the Lakers or not. We were close, but I think 05-07 were closer.

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Re: Suns News: Week 17 (2/7 - 2/13)

Post by In2ition »

I thought that the D'Antoni years, there were a few fatal flaws with the team, but it started with backup PG for Nash. They wanted someone that was opposite of Nash, that would have been a defensive guard, but you needed someone that would have kept the pressure on with the flow and rhythm of the 7SOL pace. When they got to the playoffs, they bought into the notion that you had to slow down for the playoffs, but that wasn't how they became so good. They needed to up the pace of the game in the playoffs, imo. Force the other team to play at the uncomfortable pace that they weren't built for, and the Suns were.
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