Game Day: Suns (63-16) @ Clippers (39-40), Wed 4/6/22

[Split T]

The only thing that would worry me in a 1st round series would be if Kawhi came back and was himself. I think we can quibble over who might push us to 6 games, but we’re not losing a 1st round series unless MVP level Kawhi is back and even then I think we can still win.

[Indy]

The only thing that would worry me in a 1st round series would be if Kawhi came back and was himself. I think we can quibble over who might push us to 6 games, but we’re not losing a 1st round series unless MVP level Kawhi is back and even then I think we can still win.

I agree. And we would be favored. I would like to use the first round to get our playoff rotation set. Playing against Willie Green makes that complicated.

[Superbone]

Y'all really think Beverly losing to the Clippers ?!?!
Sorry guys

Couldn't resist

Wolves/Clips would be fun to watch.

[Split T]

My order of preference:

1. Spurs - they just aren’t that good and we should sweep them
2. Clippers without Kawhi - We’d win and I think we’d learn some stuff that would help us prepare for GS.
3. Wolves - I’d only be worried about PatBev hurting someone
4. Pelicans - We’d win, but it might be a little uncomfortable and take longer than it should.
5. Clippers with Kawhi - only series I could see us actually losing.

[Mori Chu]

Yes, if the Clippers win the 7/8 game, they get the 7 seed.

I think we're going to play either the Pelicans or Spurs first round. I just have a feeling that whoever loses that 7/8 game is going to lose a second one. My gut feeling is that Clips get the 7 seed and Pelicans beat the Spurs and Wolves for the 8 spot.

I kind of feel that way, too. I think we will be playing the Pelicans in the first round, and that would be my 2nd scariest match up for us of the people we could play in the 1st (Clips, Pels, Wolves, Spurs). I would much prefer the Spurs in the 1st, let the Clips play Memphis.

There is still a good chance that Utah slips to 6th place and goes against GSW in round 1, while Dallas gets Denver.

I don't think I am scared of the Pelicans in a 7-game series. They're better in the latter part of the season now that they have McCollum, for sure. But overall I just don't think they have the talent to give us much of a scare. I think it would be a 5-game series at most. I'd honestly be delighted with any first-round matchup other than the Clips, who I want no part of. They just have so much guard/wing depth, so much 3-point shooting, a real F-U attitude, and some scary star power at the top in George and maybe Kawhi. They're a snake in the grass. No thank you. Would love to see them give the Grizz hell in the 1st round and soften the bears up for us.

If it does play out like that, our path would be Pels-->Dal/Denver-->Memphis/GSW/Clips. That is a pretty formidable path.

Honestly I don't know that I agree with you here about that being a formidable path. I think that's as good as we're going to get in terms of paths through the West.

Pels are much better to face than Clips in 1st round, so I'll take it. Dal in 2nd round is maybe the toughest matchup? But I think we'll absolutely beat them. I am not scared of Den or Uta in the 2nd round. Honestly I just don't think anybody will beat us in that round given who is likely to be there. And for WCF, well, we have to reasonably expect that we'll face the West's other best team there, right? So probably whichever of GSW or MEM gets hottest. Neither one will be an easy out, but I think we are equipped to beat them this year. I don't know how we could expect anything different in the WCF.

I think overall it's a pretty reasonable path to the Finals that any real title team should be able to get through. If we can't beat those teams, we don't deserve the trophy.

[Indy]

I am not scared of the Pels either. I am only scared of the Clips if they have Leonard back. But I think we will have a harder time beating the Pels 4 games than the Spurs or Wolves.

If the Clips get to the WCF again, I think it is silly to think it will be an easy win. It will likely be GSW or Memphis in that series, though. Neither are easy wins for anyone. There is a reason both of those teams will have a better record than anyone in the east except Miami. They are really good teams. And Golden State has a way of making Book look like a bad player at times. That is worrisome.

We all felt pretty damn confident last year when we were up 2-0 in the Finals. I am not going to just assume we win without struggles.

[Shabazz]

If we play the Pels, I could see them taking game 1, everyone freaking out, then game 3 to go up 2-1, followed by everyone freaking out even more before we win in 6.

Their starting lineup is constructed in exactly the right way to give us problems but they do not have good depth.

[Indy]

If we play the Pels, I could see them taking game 1, everyone freaking out, then game 3 to go up 2-1, followed by everyone freaking out even more before we win in 6.

Their starting lineup is constructed in exactly the right way to give us problems but they do not have good depth.

exactly.

[Mori Chu]

If Zion could actually play NBA games, the Pelicans would be pretty interesting.

[Superbone]

If Zion could actually play NBA games, the Pelicans would be pretty interesting.

Has he been ruled out?

[Split T]

His step dad or someone like that said he thinks he’ll play in the playoffs

[Mori Chu]

Who would win in a bare knuckle street fight? Zion Williamson, or Ish Wainwright?

[Nodack]

Ish had a great game. His best ever. I wouldn’t anoint him yet though. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. I do like him though.

I don’t know Cam J’s 3 pt shooting since he came back but, it’s gotta be really low. 1-9 last night. 3-7 against the Lakers. 2-11 against the Thunder. 1-3 against the Grizzlies. He was on fire before the injury. 7-30 is like 23%? He needs to get his mojo back soon.

Shamet? He’s been a little disappointing for me this season. He hasn’t been horrible, just not as good as I had hoped.

[Indy]

I think Shamet's defense has been a lot better than I expected.

His offense is a little lower than I expected. I mean he takes a 3 every 4 minutes he is on the floor, and hits 37% of them. He takes more per minute and makes more than Jae. Actually, he takes more 3s per minute than anyone in the rotation, and makes a higher % than everyone except CamJ, Book, and Bridges.

[Mori Chu]

I think Shamet's defense has been a lot better than I expected.

His offense is a little lower than I expected. I mean he takes a 3 every 4 minutes he is on the floor, and hits 37% of them. He takes more per minute and makes more than Jae. Actually, he takes more 3s per minute than anyone in the rotation, and makes a higher % than everyone except CamJ, Book, and Bridges.

Yeah but to me he really fails the eye test. He misses a bunch of wide open 3s that a guy like Jae or CamJ would drain. I don't know how to search advanced metrics stuff but I wonder how many of Shamet's made 3s are in "garbage" time or are not very impactful, vs how many important 3s he makes in the flow of a game.

[Split T]

I think my disappointment with Shamet is that I was expecting like a JJ Reddick. Someone who would drain 40%+ of difficult 3 point shots. He’s just a good shooter, not a great one. The defense has been better than expected and I’ll say that he’s started to finish better around the rim. Early in the season he tried and failed a lot at scoring near the basket.

I kinda compare Shamet to Frank, at least from an expectation standpoint. When we brought Frank in, I thought he’d at least shoot for us, but didn’t think he’d do anything else. I was disappointed in his shooting, but he seemed to be better thanO was expecting at other things(passing, dribbling, scoring in the paint).

I’m hoping like Frank, that Shamet’s worst year with us is his 1st.

[Indy]

I think Shamet's defense has been a lot better than I expected.

His offense is a little lower than I expected. I mean he takes a 3 every 4 minutes he is on the floor, and hits 37% of them. He takes more per minute and makes more than Jae. Actually, he takes more 3s per minute than anyone in the rotation, and makes a higher % than everyone except CamJ, Book, and Bridges.

Yeah but to me he really fails the eye test. He misses a bunch of wide open 3s that a guy like Jae or CamJ would drain. I don't know how to search advanced metrics stuff but I wonder how many of Shamet's made 3s are in "garbage" time or are not very impactful, vs how many important 3s he makes in the flow of a game.

Jae only hits 35.9% of his wide open 3s. It isn't as bad as Cam Payne's 33%, but it is 2nd worst for the rotations guys that shoot 3s (not counting Javale or DA).

Shamet is at 38.7%

CamJ and Book are killas at over 45%.

[Indy]

I think my disappointment with Shamet is that I was expecting like a JJ Reddick. Someone who would drain 40%+ of difficult 3 point shots. He’s just a good shooter, not a great one. The defense has been better than expected and I’ll say that he’s started to finish better around the rim. Early in the season he tried and failed a lot at scoring near the basket.

I kinda compare Shamet to Frank, at least from an expectation standpoint. When we brought Frank in, I thought he’d at least shoot for us, but didn’t think he’d do anything else. I was disappointed in his shooting, but he seemed to be better thanO was expecting at other things(passing, dribbling, scoring in the paint).

I’m hoping like Frank, that Shamet’s worst year with us is his 1st.

He is good at shooting off of motion, which most of our guys are not. But he also has an ugly shot. He shoots darts. I think that hurts how he is viewed, too.

[Split T]

Ya I’ve noticed when he’s missing that his shot seems particularly flat…less margin for error with a flat arc. The names are probably flat too, I just don’t notice as much because they go in.

[Mori Chu]

I will say that I like the way he has been driving to the basket lately, including some great dunks. I've also seen him hit some nice 15-18-foot jumpers Maybe he just needs to cultivate his midrange and driving game more. It seems like he's trying to be a 3-point specialist, and while he's a pretty decent 3-point shooter, maybe a more well-rounded game would help him find a better rhythm on nights where his first few 3s don't fall. And I agree with others that he's been pretty good on defense, too. It just feels like there's a comfort and a more well-rounded game that would be more effective for him than the way he is currently trying to play for us.