Hi all, I thought it would be fun to do an over/under style thread where we look at the Vegas betting over/unders for all 30 NBA teams. Which teams do you think will do better than the Vegas number, and which will do worse? You can also select up to 5 "locks", ones you think you're certain about. You're welcome to write your thinking along with your picks, or not, whatever you like. At the end of the season we'll look back and see who did best. (Scoring: Let's say, 1 point for getting a line right; 2 for getting a "lock" right.). I got these over/unders from:
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/
West:
Phoenix Suns 52.5
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5
Golden State Warriors 51.5
Denver Nuggets 49.5
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5
Dallas Mavericks 48.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5
Portland Trail Blazers 39.5
Sacramento Kings 33.5
Utah Jazz 24.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5
Houston Rockets 23.5
San Antonio Spurs 22.5
East:
Boston Celtics 53.5
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5
Brooklyn Nets 50.5
Miami Heat 48.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5
Atlanta Hawks 45.5
Toronto Raptors 45.5
Chicago Bulls 41.5
New York Knicks 38.5
Charlotte Hornets 35.5
Washington Wizards 35.5
Detroit Pistons 29.5
Orlando Magic 26.5
Indiana Pacers 23.5
2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
Re: 2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
My picks:
West:
Phoenix Suns 52.5 - UNDER. Injuries, ownership turmoil, pouty DA, old CP3, no guard depth.
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5 - OVER. Deep and nasty team.
Golden State Warriors 51.5 - OVER. (LOCK) I think the Draymond thing will pass. Deep and super talented. They'll rack up wins.
Denver Nuggets 49.5 - OVER. (LOCK) Love this team. Murray and KPJ back. Going to be a powerhouse.
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 - OVER. Even when Ja goes down they still find ways to win.
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 - UNDER. They don't have much talent beyond Luka.
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 - UNDER. I don't think Gobert + KAT will work.
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 - UNDER. Super overrated team of old grumpy has-beens. Westbrook + Beverley is a powder keg.
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5 - OVER. (LOCK) Team on the rise. Zion's back, plus Ingram, very deep, big, strong, talented, hungry.
Portland Trail Blazers 39.5 - UNDER. Dame is getting old, and they don't have much else.
Sacramento Kings 33.5 - OVER. Weird mix but too much talent to win this few games.
Utah Jazz 24.5 - UNDER. Tanking team, selling off all their talent for picks and youngs.
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 - UNDER. They've shown that they have no conscience when it comes to tanking, which they will.
Houston Rockets 23.5 - UNDER. I like the young talent, but I think they won't be able to resist the Wemba sweepstakes.
San Antonio Spurs 22.5 - UNDER. Just a horrendous roster.
East:
Boston Celtics 53.5 - OVER. Loss of their coach hurts, but I can't deny the talent on the roster.
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5 - UNDER. I like the Bucks a lot, but I think they will load manage and have some nagging injuries or depth problems.
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 - OVER. Harden looks to be in shape. Nice roster, hungry for a title run.
Brooklyn Nets 50.5 - UNDER. (LOCK) Team turmoil. KD future uncertain. I don't believe in Ben Simmons or Kyrie at all.
Miami Heat 48.5 - OVER. This team always finds a way to grind out wins.
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 - OVER. (LOCK) Love this team. They are going to be really good.
Atlanta Hawks 45.5 - OVER. This line seems low to me. ATL is super talented and deep. Another big Trey season coming.
Toronto Raptors 45.5 - OVER. Scottie Barnes is a stud.
Chicago Bulls 41.5 - UNDER. Lack of Ball will hurt them.
New York Knicks 38.5 - OVER. I think they'll be scrappy. I like Toppin, Quickley, Reddish, Brunson. Scoring punch.
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 - UNDER. They have almost no players I like. Two Ball brothers? blech.
Washington Wizards 35.5 - UNDER. This team always sucks.
Detroit Pistons 29.5 - OVER. I kind of really like this roster. Ivey, Cade, Beef Stew, Bey, Bogdanovic, Bagley (injured)? Really nice rebuild. Sign me up.
Orlando Magic 26.5 - OVER. Don't really like the roster, but they have too many young talented guys not to try to win.
Indiana Pacers 23.5 - UNDER. They'll sell off talent and enter the lotto sweepstakes.
My locks: Warriors OVER, Nuggets OVER, Pelicans OVER, Nets UNDER, Cavs OVER. (I guess I'm a positive guy.)
West:
Phoenix Suns 52.5 - UNDER. Injuries, ownership turmoil, pouty DA, old CP3, no guard depth.
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5 - OVER. Deep and nasty team.
Golden State Warriors 51.5 - OVER. (LOCK) I think the Draymond thing will pass. Deep and super talented. They'll rack up wins.
Denver Nuggets 49.5 - OVER. (LOCK) Love this team. Murray and KPJ back. Going to be a powerhouse.
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 - OVER. Even when Ja goes down they still find ways to win.
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 - UNDER. They don't have much talent beyond Luka.
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 - UNDER. I don't think Gobert + KAT will work.
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 - UNDER. Super overrated team of old grumpy has-beens. Westbrook + Beverley is a powder keg.
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5 - OVER. (LOCK) Team on the rise. Zion's back, plus Ingram, very deep, big, strong, talented, hungry.
Portland Trail Blazers 39.5 - UNDER. Dame is getting old, and they don't have much else.
Sacramento Kings 33.5 - OVER. Weird mix but too much talent to win this few games.
Utah Jazz 24.5 - UNDER. Tanking team, selling off all their talent for picks and youngs.
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 - UNDER. They've shown that they have no conscience when it comes to tanking, which they will.
Houston Rockets 23.5 - UNDER. I like the young talent, but I think they won't be able to resist the Wemba sweepstakes.
San Antonio Spurs 22.5 - UNDER. Just a horrendous roster.
East:
Boston Celtics 53.5 - OVER. Loss of their coach hurts, but I can't deny the talent on the roster.
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5 - UNDER. I like the Bucks a lot, but I think they will load manage and have some nagging injuries or depth problems.
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 - OVER. Harden looks to be in shape. Nice roster, hungry for a title run.
Brooklyn Nets 50.5 - UNDER. (LOCK) Team turmoil. KD future uncertain. I don't believe in Ben Simmons or Kyrie at all.
Miami Heat 48.5 - OVER. This team always finds a way to grind out wins.
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 - OVER. (LOCK) Love this team. They are going to be really good.
Atlanta Hawks 45.5 - OVER. This line seems low to me. ATL is super talented and deep. Another big Trey season coming.
Toronto Raptors 45.5 - OVER. Scottie Barnes is a stud.
Chicago Bulls 41.5 - UNDER. Lack of Ball will hurt them.
New York Knicks 38.5 - OVER. I think they'll be scrappy. I like Toppin, Quickley, Reddish, Brunson. Scoring punch.
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 - UNDER. They have almost no players I like. Two Ball brothers? blech.
Washington Wizards 35.5 - UNDER. This team always sucks.
Detroit Pistons 29.5 - OVER. I kind of really like this roster. Ivey, Cade, Beef Stew, Bey, Bogdanovic, Bagley (injured)? Really nice rebuild. Sign me up.
Orlando Magic 26.5 - OVER. Don't really like the roster, but they have too many young talented guys not to try to win.
Indiana Pacers 23.5 - UNDER. They'll sell off talent and enter the lotto sweepstakes.
My locks: Warriors OVER, Nuggets OVER, Pelicans OVER, Nets UNDER, Cavs OVER. (I guess I'm a positive guy.)
Re: 2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
West:
Phoenix Suns 52.5 - Under
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5 - Over
Golden State Warriors 51.5 - Over
Denver Nuggets 49.5 - Over
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 - Under
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 - Under
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 - Over
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 - Under
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5 - Over
Portland Trail Blazers 39.5 - Under
Sacramento Kings 33.5 - Over
Utah Jazz 24.5 - Under
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 - Over
Houston Rockets 23.5 - Over
San Antonio Spurs 22.5 - Under
East:
Boston Celtics 53.5 - Under
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5 - Over
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 - Over
Brooklyn Nets 50.5 - Under
Miami Heat 48.5 - Over
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 - Over
Atlanta Hawks 45.5 - Under
Toronto Raptors 45.5 - Over
Chicago Bulls 41.5 - Under
New York Knicks 38.5 - Under
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 - Under
Washington Wizards 35.5 - Under
Detroit Pistons 29.5 - Over
Orlando Magic 26.5 - Over
Indiana Pacers 23.5 - Over
Put my locks in bold.
Phoenix Suns 52.5 - Under
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5 - Over
Golden State Warriors 51.5 - Over
Denver Nuggets 49.5 - Over
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 - Under
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 - Under
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 - Over
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 - Under
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5 - Over
Portland Trail Blazers 39.5 - Under
Sacramento Kings 33.5 - Over
Utah Jazz 24.5 - Under
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 - Over
Houston Rockets 23.5 - Over
San Antonio Spurs 22.5 - Under
East:
Boston Celtics 53.5 - Under
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5 - Over
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 - Over
Brooklyn Nets 50.5 - Under
Miami Heat 48.5 - Over
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 - Over
Atlanta Hawks 45.5 - Under
Toronto Raptors 45.5 - Over
Chicago Bulls 41.5 - Under
New York Knicks 38.5 - Under
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 - Under
Washington Wizards 35.5 - Under
Detroit Pistons 29.5 - Over
Orlando Magic 26.5 - Over
Indiana Pacers 23.5 - Over
Put my locks in bold.
Re: 2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
We had similar thoughts on the Pels/Nuggets/Cavs…I promise I didn’t see your picks when I posted haha
Re: 2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
I know the West is supposed to be really tough this season will lots of good teams. But every season there are teams that underperform for whatever reason, opening opportunities for other teams.
West:
Phoenix Suns 52.5 - OVER - Ayton, Bridges and Johnson improvement will offset McGee/Crowder loss. West is tough, but not 12 wins less tough
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5 - UNDER - Kawhi/Paul injuries and/or load management will hinder regular season wins
Golden State Warriors 51.5 - OVER - Have no idea how they are rated this low.
Denver Nuggets 49.5 - OVER - But just barely. MPJ and Murray return but will take some time. Bench sucks. West too tough.
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 - OVER - Losses of Slo-Mo and Melton will be felt. Ja loses 8 weeks with bad ankle sprain.
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 - UNDER - Good luck with McGee as starting center.
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 - OVER - Really unsure about this and how Gobert will impact this team. They could explode.
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 - UNDER - Easy. Lakers suck.
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5 - OVER - I mean really? Does Vegas pay attention? I think they could beat this even without Zion.
Portland Trail Blazers 39.5 - UNDER - Another tough call. With Dame back, they aren't a contender, but make the play-in.
Sacramento Kings 33.5 - UNDER - Not a fan of Mike Brown.
Utah Jazz 24.5 - UNDER - They will suck (on purpose). Race to the bottom.
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 - UNDER - Another team chasing the first pick.
Houston Rockets 23.5 - OVER - They have enough talent to at least try to win this season.
San Antonio Spurs 22.5 - UNDER - The tanking this season will be historic.
East:
Boston Celtics 53.5 - OVER
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5 - OVER
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 - UNDER
Brooklyn Nets 50.5 - UNDER
Miami Heat 48.5 - OVER
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 - OVER. Easy
Atlanta Hawks 45.5 - UNDER
Toronto Raptors 45.5 - UNDER
Chicago Bulls 41.5 - OVER
New York Knicks 38.5 - OVER
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 - UNDER
Washington Wizards 35.5 - OVER
Detroit Pistons 29.5 - UNDER
Orlando Magic 26.5 - UNDER
Indiana Pacers 23.5 - OVER
Let's of wins for the top teams to grab as the bottom teams tank for Wembanyama.
West:
Phoenix Suns 52.5 - OVER - Ayton, Bridges and Johnson improvement will offset McGee/Crowder loss. West is tough, but not 12 wins less tough
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5 - UNDER - Kawhi/Paul injuries and/or load management will hinder regular season wins
Golden State Warriors 51.5 - OVER - Have no idea how they are rated this low.
Denver Nuggets 49.5 - OVER - But just barely. MPJ and Murray return but will take some time. Bench sucks. West too tough.
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 - OVER - Losses of Slo-Mo and Melton will be felt. Ja loses 8 weeks with bad ankle sprain.
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 - UNDER - Good luck with McGee as starting center.
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 - OVER - Really unsure about this and how Gobert will impact this team. They could explode.
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 - UNDER - Easy. Lakers suck.
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5 - OVER - I mean really? Does Vegas pay attention? I think they could beat this even without Zion.
Portland Trail Blazers 39.5 - UNDER - Another tough call. With Dame back, they aren't a contender, but make the play-in.
Sacramento Kings 33.5 - UNDER - Not a fan of Mike Brown.
Utah Jazz 24.5 - UNDER - They will suck (on purpose). Race to the bottom.
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 - UNDER - Another team chasing the first pick.
Houston Rockets 23.5 - OVER - They have enough talent to at least try to win this season.
San Antonio Spurs 22.5 - UNDER - The tanking this season will be historic.
East:
Boston Celtics 53.5 - OVER
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5 - OVER
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 - UNDER
Brooklyn Nets 50.5 - UNDER
Miami Heat 48.5 - OVER
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 - OVER. Easy
Atlanta Hawks 45.5 - UNDER
Toronto Raptors 45.5 - UNDER
Chicago Bulls 41.5 - OVER
New York Knicks 38.5 - OVER
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 - UNDER
Washington Wizards 35.5 - OVER
Detroit Pistons 29.5 - UNDER
Orlando Magic 26.5 - UNDER
Indiana Pacers 23.5 - OVER
Let's of wins for the top teams to grab as the bottom teams tank for Wembanyama.
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Democritus
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Re: 2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
I really don't care about other teams. I'll just say over for the Suns. I expect 56 wins this year.
"We shall leave this world as foolish and as wicked as we found it on our arrival"-Voltaire
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specialsauce
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Re: 2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
I’ll take the under. I’m guessing 47 wins
Re: 2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
Bringing this back…I’m going to give myself 8-7 in the west(though it could still be 7-8 if the spurs win out). I went 2-1 on my locks(Pels didn’t hit their over. I should’ve known not to trust Zion to stay healthy).
I’m 9-5 in the east with the wizards still tbd(I need them to lose 1 more game, so I should go 18-12 and 4-1 on my locks.
I’m 9-5 in the east with the wizards still tbd(I need them to lose 1 more game, so I should go 18-12 and 4-1 on my locks.
Re: 2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
West:
Phoenix Suns 52.5 (Clinched under 44-47)
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5 (Clinched under 42-44)
Golden State Warriors 51.5 (Clinched under 42-44)
Denver Nuggets 49.5 (Clinched over 52-55)
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 (Clinched over 50-52)
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 (Clinched under 38-40)
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 (Clinched under 40-42)
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 (Clinched under 41-43)
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5 (Clinched under 41-43)
Portland Trail Blazers 39.5 (Clinched under 33-36)
Sacramento Kings 33.5 (Clinched over 48-50)
Utah Jazz 24.5 (Clinched over 36-39)
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 (Clinched over 38-40)
Houston Rockets 23.5 (Clinched under 20-22)
San Antonio Spurs 22.5(TBD 20-23)
East:
Boston Celtics 53.5 (Clinched over 55-57)
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5 (Clinched over 58-60)
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 (Clinched over 52-55)
Brooklyn Nets 50.5 (Clinched under 44-46)
Miami Heat 48.5 (Clinched under 42-45)
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 (Clinched over 50-52)
Atlanta Hawks 45.5 (Clinched under 41-43)
Toronto Raptors 45.5 (Clinched under 40-42)
Chicago Bulls 41.5 (Clinched under 38-40)
New York Knicks 38.5 (Clinched over 47-49)
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 (Clinched under 26-28
Washington Wizards 35.5(TBD 34-36)
Detroit Pistons 29.5(Clinched under 16-18)
Orlando Magic 26.5(Clinched over 34-37)
Indiana Pacers 23.5 (Clinched over 34-36)
Biggest exceeders of expectations look to be Thunder and kings who are both going to be 14-15 games over. Pacers and Jazz are about 11. Teams that were the furthest under expectations are the Pistons and Mavs. 11-13 for pistons and 9-10 for Mavs.
Phoenix Suns 52.5 (Clinched under 44-47)
Los Angeles Clippers 52.5 (Clinched under 42-44)
Golden State Warriors 51.5 (Clinched under 42-44)
Denver Nuggets 49.5 (Clinched over 52-55)
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 (Clinched over 50-52)
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 (Clinched under 38-40)
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 (Clinched under 40-42)
Los Angeles Lakers 45.5 (Clinched under 41-43)
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5 (Clinched under 41-43)
Portland Trail Blazers 39.5 (Clinched under 33-36)
Sacramento Kings 33.5 (Clinched over 48-50)
Utah Jazz 24.5 (Clinched over 36-39)
Oklahoma City Thunder 23.5 (Clinched over 38-40)
Houston Rockets 23.5 (Clinched under 20-22)
San Antonio Spurs 22.5(TBD 20-23)
East:
Boston Celtics 53.5 (Clinched over 55-57)
Milwaukee Bucks 52.5 (Clinched over 58-60)
Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 (Clinched over 52-55)
Brooklyn Nets 50.5 (Clinched under 44-46)
Miami Heat 48.5 (Clinched under 42-45)
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.5 (Clinched over 50-52)
Atlanta Hawks 45.5 (Clinched under 41-43)
Toronto Raptors 45.5 (Clinched under 40-42)
Chicago Bulls 41.5 (Clinched under 38-40)
New York Knicks 38.5 (Clinched over 47-49)
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 (Clinched under 26-28
Washington Wizards 35.5(TBD 34-36)
Detroit Pistons 29.5(Clinched under 16-18)
Orlando Magic 26.5(Clinched over 34-37)
Indiana Pacers 23.5 (Clinched over 34-36)
Biggest exceeders of expectations look to be Thunder and kings who are both going to be 14-15 games over. Pacers and Jazz are about 11. Teams that were the furthest under expectations are the Pistons and Mavs. 11-13 for pistons and 9-10 for Mavs.
Re: 2022-23 phx-suns.net NBA over/unders
I definitely want to circle back to this thread once the regular season ends.