Suns Draft Day 2014

[Ring_Wanted]

Swing you keep mentioning McBob, who I like (and would be very interested if Frye leaves), but I think you are assuming he'll be cheaper than what he'll actually get. He has opted out of 2.7M and I wouldn't be surprised if he got in excess of 4M per, at least if it comes from the Bobcats.

[Aztec Sunsfan]

Warren and Tucker are almost on oposite sides of the SF spectrum, so TJ would be no substitute at all for PJ. If any, I could see him as insurance for a GGreen trade. Ennis is no Bledsoe substitute, neither would be so much leverage, maybe if we had drafted Smart.

As for Bledsoe, I agree that him making double that soon to be FA Goran, would be bad news as we would end up with over 20mill tied up to those guys. Hopefully the FO is getting sober after the party that was last season's great run and looking at Bledsoe as good as gone if he is asking for the max, so they are shooting at arranging a S&T convenient for both sides. All the diligence done on working out the PG position for the draft makes me think that we already are looking for this path.

I don't know much about the draft, but looking at the comments around here, I think the Front Office is going back to the rebuilding path, maybe under a clear notion that we are out of the Love and Lebron sweepstakes. So, if we are not getting into the fast track of trading for a superstar, why overpay to keep Bledsoe, Frye -maybe even Tucker-, and bring back, basically the same lineup?

We S&T Bledsoe and Frye for more building blocks (Monroe?) or assets (picks) and go ahead developing Ennis, Warren, Goodwin and Len, evaluating the Morri, and asking Goran to hold the fort for another season. Depending on how high the market settles on Tucker, and how much that guy taken at 50th resembles something in between Frye-starting-the-season and Channing-ending-the-season, we are basically back to the squad that survived at .500 during Bledsoe's injury time, but with better cap flexibility.

[SwingMan]

Swing you keep mentioning McBob, who I like (and would be very interested if Frye leaves), but I think you are assuming he'll be cheaper than what he'll actually get. He has opted out of 2.7M and I wouldn't be surprised if he got in excess of 4M per, at least if it comes from the Bobcats.

Oh, with the all-around numbers he put up this season, I expected he'd get around $3-$4 million per from someone. I'd like that someone to be us, but if he wants more, I say let him go find it.

Just mentioning McRoberts because he'd be a nice fit - and further insurance that Frye doesn't come back. I honestly don't have anything personal against Frye and he's a great story coming back from an enlarged heart, but MAN, is his one-trick play a severe drag on the team.

[Shabazz]

Just mentioning McRoberts because he'd be a nice fit - and further insurance that Frye doesn't come back. I honestly don't have anything personal against Frye and he's a great story coming back from an enlarged heart, but MAN, is his one-trick play a severe drag on the team.

Every advanced statistic shows quite the opposite (at least on offense).

[SwingMan]

Just mentioning McRoberts because he'd be a nice fit - and further insurance that Frye doesn't come back. I honestly don't have anything personal against Frye and he's a great story coming back from an enlarged heart, but MAN, is his one-trick play a severe drag on the team.

Every advanced statistic shows quite the opposite (at least on offense).

You know what, Shabazz? Why don't you show me "every advanced statistic" that you speak of, then? Because it's not what I've been seeing for years at all. As they say, nuclear physics can "prove" that an elephant can hang off a damn cliff with his tail tied to a daisy.

See, that's the thing - a bushel of people here keep thumping the "best pick & pop in the league" bullshit when that's (and that's flawed as hell because he always has his ass parked beyond the arc despite other options available to him) only part of the story.

What about all the boards and 'and-1's' he gives up because all he does is reach on D? What about all the dumb soft touch fouls that, at age 31, his ass should know better by now than to commit? What about the fact that you rarely get anything but ZERO from Frye after the 1st quarter?

He's been here 5 damn years (played 4) and has done nothing but regress from a somewhat solid 2009-2010 season.

[carey]

Look, Swingy, I get where you're coming from. The fact is that we are better when he's part of the starting unit than when he is not. Can someone do a better job than Frye? Yes. Is that person currently on the roster? I doubt it. Could we find someone in FA to do a better job? Yes, but it'll cost us. That's the nature of FA.

[SwingMan]

Look, Swingy, I get where you're coming from. The fact is that we are better when he's part of the starting unit than when he is not. Can someone do a better job than Frye? Yes. Is that person currently on the roster? I doubt it. Could we find someone in FA to do a better job? Yes, but it'll cost us. That's the nature of FA.

Better than hoping for different results by trying the same damn thing.

Now, exactly how are we better with Frye in the starting 5, much less present on the roster again?

[carey]

Look, Swingy, I get where you're coming from. The fact is that we are better when he's part of the starting unit than when he is not. Can someone do a better job than Frye? Yes. Is that person currently on the roster? I doubt it. Could we find someone in FA to do a better job? Yes, but it'll cost us. That's the nature of FA.

Better than hoping for different results by trying the same damn thing.

Now, exactly how are we better with Frye in the starting 5, much less present on the roster again?

We score more points. Dragic and Bledsoe both play better because Frye opens the lane, even when not shooting well people still guard him out there.

[EDC]

Personally I'm tired of the stretch 4 position. Especially one that has trouble rebounding or playing defense. I'm not against having a stretch 4 on the team but he should be a bench player getting around 15 minutes not a starter. I want defensive bigs that rebound. Dragic and Bledsoe don't need any help getting to the basket. I'm tired of the Suns soft reputation on defense.

[Shabazz]

You know what, Shabazz? Why don't you show me "every advanced statistic" that you speak of, then?

Frye had the second-best plus-minus on the team (3.6) behind Goran Dragic (4.0), according to NBA.com. Even more staggering is Frye’s Real Plus Minus. ESPN’s shiny new statistic ranks Frye ninth in the entire NBA with a 5.22 RPM — that puts him above two of the best power forwards in the game in Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge.

Even when Frye wasn’t clicking, he was helping the Suns as a forever decoy.

Though the Suns employ two of the best pick-and-roll ballhandling scorers in Dragic and Bledsoe, it was Frye making big men focus more on recovering on the wings than making sure they’re stopping drivers on hedges and help.

According to Synergy Sports Technology, the Suns scored 0.88 points per possession on pick-and-roll drives, the third-best mark in the NBA.

Phoenix ranked second overall by scoring 1.16 points per possession when the ball went to the roll or pick-and-pop man — a lot of times that was Frye. On 24 percent of the Suns’ possession where the pick-and-roll play put the ball in the screener’s hands, a three-pointer was taken, and Phoenix shot 44 percent on 117 of such plays this season. Guess who was the main target?

Nearly half of Frye’s total shot attempts this year came above the three-point break. He took 89 three-point attempts out of the pick-and-roll and shot a ridiculous 46 percent on those plays. In total, he scored 1.18 points per possession out of pick-and-rolls. It’s probably a bigger shame that the Suns didn’t find the screeners all that often, as they only found attempts for the big men on 5 percent of their offensive possessions on the season.

http://valleyofthesuns.com/2014/05/05/c ... -pressure/

Best 5-man units in the NBA:

5. PHOENIX SUNS (+116)
Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, P.J. Tucker, Miles Plumlee, Channing Frye

Not many teams get after it on D like these workhorses, who allowed only 94.6 points per 100 possessions, while also scoring an impressive +12.6 net rating in the 32 games they have played together. If you said back in October that this quintet would be among the NBA's best, you were the only person to do so.

http://www.nba.com/hoop/the_nbas_dozen_ ... 04_08.html

Let's ask Frank Vogel what he thinks:

Phoenix Suns TV @SunsTV
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Pacers head coach Frank Vogel called the Dragic/Frye pick and roll "maybe the hardest to cover in the game." #SunsAtPacers

Or Goran Dragic (and Zach Lowe):

Dragic is quick to point out that the return of Frye — the team’s most vital spacing agent — has been central to Phoenix’s dramatic offensive improvements. “Last year he had some heart problems and couldn’t play with us, so when I played pick-and-roll I didn’t have that space guy,” he says. “This year, when we play pick-and-roll, Channing stretches the floor so I have room to operate; I can get inside the paint and make other plays for him and everybody else. He just gives us that spacing, and especially for me and Eric he makes things much easier because nobody can rotate from him.”

Nobody can rotate away from Frye; there are very few bigs in the league who can shoot from distance as well as he can.

Frye says the keys to their pick-and-roll success are quick recognition and smart decisions to create defensive stresses.

“Goran is an extremely prolific scorer and for me it’s about establishing that I’m going to set a good screen every single time and try to get my guy to get off Goran’s body,” Frye said. “If Goran’s guy goes under, it’s Goran’s job to be able to shoot that shot and my job to give him the space to shoot it in. If my guy stays on Goran, it’s my job to create space for myself to get an open shot. You know, I’ve got to assess this within milliseconds, but we’ve been good at it. Goran’s been aggressive and smart, while I’ve been pretty good at hitting the shots that I’ve been given and trying to make the right decisions.”

Frye takes more 3s than 2s, and his ability to drain those 3s is worth far more than just the handful of points that directly result from those baskets. It’s a constant threat that demands defensive attention and changes the defensive tactics in a way that opens up the interior for his attacking teammates. Frye’s proficient above-the-break shot is arguably the most important in the whole offense, and it obviously wasn’t there last year.

But this season, the Suns run a terrifying pick-and-pop that results in Frye threatening near the top of the arc and, as he says, puts the defense in a horrible predicament:

“If you have penetrators like Goran there’s no way the defense can stop the ball and get back to the shooter in time, especially with me because I’m almost 7 feet tall and have a pretty quick release,” Frye said. “It’s just a matter of who is doing what on the defense, and our offense making the decision from there.”

Frye has a gravitational pull that forces bigs away from the rim, creating attacking corridors for Dragic, who excels at “turning the corner,” attacking the basket, and making plays. In turn, Dragic’s attacking abilities create wide-open looks for Frye or other perimeter shooters. This symbiosis is the heart of the Suns’ offensive ecosystem, and it is by no means an accident.

Before the season, it was clear that Jeff Hornacek and the coaching staff really examined the roster and engineered schemes accordingly. Instead of being paralyzed by a “redundancy” at point guard, they created ways to make that a unique strength. Relative to the celebrity power of other teams, this team is less impressive, yet somehow the on-court cohesion far exceeds the sum of the parts. Now they feel like they can beat anybody in the league.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/how-t ... evolution/

[Mori Chu]

Pwned.

[EDC]

I dunno that once again just tries to give Frye all the credit for how good Dragic and Bledsoe are. They didn't even touch on rebounding or defense where most of us have the biggest problem with Frye.

ed: editted because my wording made it seem like it would be a drop off if you replaced him.

[TOO]

I dunno that once again just tries to give Frye all the credit for how good Dragic and Bledsoe are. They didn't even touch on rebounding or defense where most of us have the biggest problem with Frye. If you plug in most starting power forwards around the league into that lineup I don't think the drop off would be anything drastic.

This.

[Aztec Sunsfan]

Sounds legit to me.

I like Frye, and what he brings to the table. He is far from perfect, but you could as well crucified Plumlee, Len, GGreen, both Morris, the rest of the roster and even Dragic (Damn ankle!) and Bledsoe (Injury prone?, Mirage?)

Now, I understand the desire for a traditional PF, but I share the visión of a team designed as a unit, not as a collection of prototypical parts, and I agree that Frye contributes to generate space inside the paint for a doublé dosis of slashers (Also not prototypical). Early on, when Plumlee was playing out of his mind, we had a frontcourt player doing the heavy lifting on the boards and rim protection, but as the year passed, both Frye and Plumlee came back to earth and his deficiencies were more visible.

Goran's assesment trump it all for me. If the guy says his life is easier with Frye, I believe him. Now the problem is that Frye is going to get an offer near his current contract. Wether we like it or not, stretch 4 is becoming more than a trick in the bag, specially if your SF is not a lights out 3pt shooter, and there is a growing market for them. The Suns knows it, and I think they are already envisioning let him go.

I was a free lance analist in my early years, so I know first hand tha if I'm in position to get 6.8 mil in salary next year, versus going after a new contract over 3 years (The new standard for players on Frye's range), it would be dumb to opt out if I sense that my best offer will come between 9-12 mil over those 3 years. Because I know (considering myself on Frye's shoes) that I can take my option for 6.8 this year and EASILY get a 2 year contract on 2015 totalling 6 mill and exceed that amount, maybe even 7-8mill. If something goes terribly wrong, I already cashed in 6.8 of that 9-12 offer.

Channing Frye is rationally going after a 3 years contract totalling over 16mill. Only way he could offer a discount, would be for a fourth year heavily guaranteed. And the market is fully capable of cover his demands, as soon as Lebron and KLove find new homes and the Knicks-for-Amare síndrome shows up.

[TOO]

I'd have zero problem with Frye if 2 things were to happen: He'd play for 3M per and he came off the bench.

[Shabazz]

I did qualify my earlier statement with "at least on offense," but it's worth noting that Real Plus Minus does incorporate defense and while he's not a standout there (112th in DRPM), Frye's net defensive production is positive (just barely). I still think we need a defensive upgrade at the 4. Not sure who that is, though.

[Mori Chu]

Frye is very good at certain things, to a level that is not easily replaceable. He sets great screens, and he pops for incredibly high-percentage mid-range and especially 3-point shooting. It turns out that on offense with Dragic and/or Bledsoe, that's almost all we need out of our power forward spot.

On defense, I agree that Frye is subpar. But his offense is so perfect for this system that he actually has a high value for us overall.

I'm not nearly as eager to let Frye walk as some others here seem to be. I think he's fine as a starter as long as almost 100% of his minutes come when Dragic is on the court. Therefore, I don't actually see the point in saying that he'd be better off the bench. He'd be playing with a lesser PG who wouldn't run the P&R very well with him.

My overall take on Frye is that he makes a great low-price starting PF with Markieff coming off the bench. Kieff can generate his own offense better and is better at D and rebounding, all of which we need more of when our starting unit is off the floor. I don't think it works as well if you bench Frye and start Kieff. No disrespect to Morris, it's more about putting Frye in the most effective situation for him.

If you let Frye leave and start Markieff, you get a guy who is much worse at P&R and generally a lower-percentage three-point shooter. He's better at creating his shot, but with two amazing PGs on the floor, that is needed less. You get a little bit better defense and rebounding, but I don't think it makes up for the preceding drawbacks.

So IMO if you can get Frye to sign a multi-year deal at a somewhat modest salary, you really want to keep the guy. I don't know exactly how much I'd pay him, but maybe 2 years, $10m ($5m yer year) or something in that general ballpark.

[EDC]

I could see easily see us paying Frye to come back. Just not sure who we would get to replace him. I would love a defensive big that rebounds and isn't a completely awful on offense... but it is amazing how hard it is to just find that.

Can't wait for the first to see what we pull off in free agency.

[Ring_Wanted]

The stretch forward role is essential to what we run on offense. That's why I was in favor of the rumored Anderson trade, in case Frye was let go. I don't know how one can dispute that. You don't need to dig into the advanced stats to make this case for Frye. It's evident just by watching how often we go with the pick and pop when he is on the court.

Frye, like PJ Tucker, is a polarizing player because you either accept what he can't do because you put a premium on what he actually does, or you just loathe him because you don't consider that contribution all that important and can't take his flaws out of your mind. On this front, I've always said that I believe he is an underrated defender. His rebounding is not defensible but that's in part why he is just a role player.

Again for all his faults, this is easily a top20 catch and shooter who offers what very few of those types can, in terms of opening the floor for slashers and cuts.

PF/Cs who have his shooting ability in the league include Dirk, Melo, Anderson, Hawes, McRoberts and little else. And not all of them can play both PF and C.

Frye also commits very few TOs, and despite being considered strictly a 3pt shooter, he can hit his shots basically from anywhere, regardless of volume. Probably important factors as to why he is favored by those metrics.

There is a reason why he is linked to winning teams like the Warriors, Rockets or Blazers. Those teams know how rare and valuable is space on offense for their bonafide stars. In my opinion, if you are interested in winning with the core and system in place, one needs to aknowledge how important he is, even if that's a far from perfect player. And honestly, I don't even care about the intangibles, personality, history with the Suns (currently longest tenure) etc. I just see a player who does his thing well and, who is worth keeping and who my no means deserves the amount of fire he gets from some fans. That's it.

[Ring_Wanted]

Back to the draft stuff: I read that the Suns and Spurs intended to pick Bruno Caboclo at #27-30. The Raptors took Prince's contract so they could have an extra pick to draft Ennis at #20 and the brazilian at #22. McD royally screwed Masai it seems. Also, apparently Leandro Barbosa first told the Raptors and Suns about Caboclo.