Suns Trade Options
Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2023 7:49 pm
I've been thinking a lot lately about how the Suns could improve via trade this season, and it's not so simple, so I figured I'd share some ideas and try and lay out the landscape. Sunsfanatic76 brought it up in the other thread, and I think it's worth a deeper discussion. All feedback welcome.
Our Needs:
In my opinion, our biggest need (N1) is someone who can swing between the 4 and 5 credibly and allow us to play big (in between Nurk and KD) or small, with this player and KD at the 4/5. Maybe Metu gets there, maybe not.
Our second biggest (N2) is a "set the table" PG who can organize our offense when Book sits. This player needs to at least be better than Jordan Goodwin.
We also have to trade for someone who can come in and play right away. Upside projects who haven't contributed yet to their own teams need not apply.
Our Assets:
We have two trade exceptions, worth $4.98M and $6.5M. They can't be aggregated with each other, nor with players to add someone at a higher salary. We also have a handful of tradeable second round picks. Then we have Nasir Little ($6.25 annual salary) and Grayson Allen ($8.93M). They can be combined with one another and also with some of our minimum players as of 12/15, however some of the minimum guys have a de facto no trade clauses.
Trade Path #1 - salary relief
One thing to consider when looking at the landscape is what can we offer our trading partner that they value. The 2nd rounders we have are not that valuable other than as sweeteners. However, Ishbia's deep pockets can prove lucrative to a number of teams that are looking to lessen or avoid a luxury tax payment by absorbing their players into our trade exceptions. For this scenario I looked at all the teams that are above or near the L-Tax threshold. Teams slightly below are included because they may want to create more room to make other moves. I then looked at which players they have that would 1 - fit our needs, 2 - fit within a trade exception and 3 - not be too much of a loss to the trade partner's rotation. There are some players that fit the bill here that are minimum-salaried players, but those moves only makes sense for the other team if they don't replace the the roster spot they traded away, which is unlikely. Here are the options:
Warriors - Cory Joseph (Fits Need 1, but Vet Min and not better than Goodwin, so unlikely)
Clippers - Mason Plumlee ($5M) - the best option in trade path 1, IMO. Even though you can't really play him next to Nurk or Eubanks, he's an upgrade on Drew and gives us a different look at C.
Bones Hyland - ($2.3M) - a little redundant with our existing guards. Not a true PG, but maybe an option if we trade Grayson.
Bucks - no one fits
Celtics - Luke Kornet. Probably not worth Boston trading when he's a rotation piece and they're contending
Heat - Thomas Bryant - Min player
Nuggets - Zeke Nnaji - My favorite option among those in this trade path, but unlikely the Nuggets trade with us
Sixers - Kenyon Martin Jr. ($1.9M) - a good option, but definitely undersized. Doesn't really fit Need 1 or Need 2
Pelicans - Kira Lewis Jr. They Pels are the most likely team here to make a salary dump trade and Lewis is more of a true PG than anyone on our roster, but he's probably not good enough to supplant any of our rotation guards.
Lakers - Christian Wood. Min player, so it doesn't make a ton of sense. Maybe they release him to find a better path to PT as he's out of their rotation. He's better than Bol Bol.
Cavs ($750K under the tax) - Dean Wade ($5.7M). A decent player who can stretch the floor, but doesn't really solve our size issues. I'd pass.
Bulls ($1.7M over) - siggghhhh. Torrey Craig (Vet Min).
Conclusion - not a ton to work with by taking this path. The best options would be Plumlee, KMJ, Zeke Nnaji or Kira Lewis.
Trade Path #2 - Grayson and/or Nas
For the record, I like Grayson. He's a very solid player. But if we have Beal, Book and Gordon healthy, he's a little redundant and we have bigger needs. I'd be willing to downgrade slightly to get a better fit who can handle playoff minutes.
Nas Little is one of the few cost controlled young players we have, so I'm not eager to trade him either. But you have to give to get.
Note: because we're above the first apron we're only able to take back 110% of their individual or combined salaries.
Here are some players I'd have some level of interest in and I could see the other team entertaining. I wouldn't do all of these. just consider them.
Group 1: Nas Little straight up (or we take back additional players)
Dwight Powell ($4M) - Fits N1
Precious Achiuwa ($4.4M) - N1
Jalen McDaniels ($4.5M) - N1
Nick Richards ($5M) - N1
Poku ($5M) - N1
Davion Mitchell ($5M) - N2, redundant with Goodwin and Okogie. I'd pass.
Jalen Smith ($5.6M) - Yep. N1
Kenrick Williams ($6.2M) - I like him better than Nas, but Nas has more upside, which is why OKC considers
Jae'Sean Tate ($6.5) - helps our rebounding issues, but doesn't space the floor.
Group 2: Either Nas + minimum player or Grayson alone
Zach Collins ($7.7M)- N1
Paul Reed ($7.7M) - N1
Trey Lyles ($8M) - N1
Delon Wright ($8.2M) - N2
TJ McConnell ($8.7M) - N2
Royce O'Neal ($9.5M) - Not really someone who solves either need, but an upgrade over Nas for sure and would more credibly stretch the floor.
Group 3: Grayson + a minimum player or Nas + 2 minimum players
Patrick Williams ($9.8M) - N1
Tre Jones ($9.9M) - N2
Larry Nance - ($10.4) - N1, would be pretty perfect. If we could create l-tax savings for NO, that may incentivize them.
Gabe Vincent ($10.5M) - N2
Maxi Kleber ($11M) - N1
Bobby Portis ($11.7M) - N1. My favorite option. the Bucks need a SG more than a PF/C, so maybe they'd bite. I don't think they would.
Chris Boucher ($11.8M) - N1. I'd pass.
Group 4: Grayson + Nas (+ minimums as necessary)
Marvin Bagley ($12.5) - N1. I'd pass
Isaiah Stewart ($4.4M, but extended) - N1
Dorian Finney Smith ($13.9M) - N1, wouldn't be worth it, IMO
PJ Washington ($16.85) - N1. This one would be really interesting. I think he's exactly what we're missing. Charlotte gets depth. Hmm.
Trade Path #3 - Teams doing right by vets
Here are some vets I could see becoming available as teams fall out of contention. These players could also be bought out and targets for us on the buyout market.
Danilo Galinari, Mike Muscala, Otto Porter, Thad Young, Monte Morris, Cedi Osman
Our Needs:
In my opinion, our biggest need (N1) is someone who can swing between the 4 and 5 credibly and allow us to play big (in between Nurk and KD) or small, with this player and KD at the 4/5. Maybe Metu gets there, maybe not.
Our second biggest (N2) is a "set the table" PG who can organize our offense when Book sits. This player needs to at least be better than Jordan Goodwin.
We also have to trade for someone who can come in and play right away. Upside projects who haven't contributed yet to their own teams need not apply.
Our Assets:
We have two trade exceptions, worth $4.98M and $6.5M. They can't be aggregated with each other, nor with players to add someone at a higher salary. We also have a handful of tradeable second round picks. Then we have Nasir Little ($6.25 annual salary) and Grayson Allen ($8.93M). They can be combined with one another and also with some of our minimum players as of 12/15, however some of the minimum guys have a de facto no trade clauses.
Trade Path #1 - salary relief
One thing to consider when looking at the landscape is what can we offer our trading partner that they value. The 2nd rounders we have are not that valuable other than as sweeteners. However, Ishbia's deep pockets can prove lucrative to a number of teams that are looking to lessen or avoid a luxury tax payment by absorbing their players into our trade exceptions. For this scenario I looked at all the teams that are above or near the L-Tax threshold. Teams slightly below are included because they may want to create more room to make other moves. I then looked at which players they have that would 1 - fit our needs, 2 - fit within a trade exception and 3 - not be too much of a loss to the trade partner's rotation. There are some players that fit the bill here that are minimum-salaried players, but those moves only makes sense for the other team if they don't replace the the roster spot they traded away, which is unlikely. Here are the options:
Warriors - Cory Joseph (Fits Need 1, but Vet Min and not better than Goodwin, so unlikely)
Clippers - Mason Plumlee ($5M) - the best option in trade path 1, IMO. Even though you can't really play him next to Nurk or Eubanks, he's an upgrade on Drew and gives us a different look at C.
Bones Hyland - ($2.3M) - a little redundant with our existing guards. Not a true PG, but maybe an option if we trade Grayson.
Bucks - no one fits
Celtics - Luke Kornet. Probably not worth Boston trading when he's a rotation piece and they're contending
Heat - Thomas Bryant - Min player
Nuggets - Zeke Nnaji - My favorite option among those in this trade path, but unlikely the Nuggets trade with us
Sixers - Kenyon Martin Jr. ($1.9M) - a good option, but definitely undersized. Doesn't really fit Need 1 or Need 2
Pelicans - Kira Lewis Jr. They Pels are the most likely team here to make a salary dump trade and Lewis is more of a true PG than anyone on our roster, but he's probably not good enough to supplant any of our rotation guards.
Lakers - Christian Wood. Min player, so it doesn't make a ton of sense. Maybe they release him to find a better path to PT as he's out of their rotation. He's better than Bol Bol.
Cavs ($750K under the tax) - Dean Wade ($5.7M). A decent player who can stretch the floor, but doesn't really solve our size issues. I'd pass.
Bulls ($1.7M over) - siggghhhh. Torrey Craig (Vet Min).
Conclusion - not a ton to work with by taking this path. The best options would be Plumlee, KMJ, Zeke Nnaji or Kira Lewis.
Trade Path #2 - Grayson and/or Nas
For the record, I like Grayson. He's a very solid player. But if we have Beal, Book and Gordon healthy, he's a little redundant and we have bigger needs. I'd be willing to downgrade slightly to get a better fit who can handle playoff minutes.
Nas Little is one of the few cost controlled young players we have, so I'm not eager to trade him either. But you have to give to get.
Note: because we're above the first apron we're only able to take back 110% of their individual or combined salaries.
Here are some players I'd have some level of interest in and I could see the other team entertaining. I wouldn't do all of these. just consider them.
Group 1: Nas Little straight up (or we take back additional players)
Dwight Powell ($4M) - Fits N1
Precious Achiuwa ($4.4M) - N1
Jalen McDaniels ($4.5M) - N1
Nick Richards ($5M) - N1
Poku ($5M) - N1
Davion Mitchell ($5M) - N2, redundant with Goodwin and Okogie. I'd pass.
Jalen Smith ($5.6M) - Yep. N1
Kenrick Williams ($6.2M) - I like him better than Nas, but Nas has more upside, which is why OKC considers
Jae'Sean Tate ($6.5) - helps our rebounding issues, but doesn't space the floor.
Group 2: Either Nas + minimum player or Grayson alone
Zach Collins ($7.7M)- N1
Paul Reed ($7.7M) - N1
Trey Lyles ($8M) - N1
Delon Wright ($8.2M) - N2
TJ McConnell ($8.7M) - N2
Royce O'Neal ($9.5M) - Not really someone who solves either need, but an upgrade over Nas for sure and would more credibly stretch the floor.
Group 3: Grayson + a minimum player or Nas + 2 minimum players
Patrick Williams ($9.8M) - N1
Tre Jones ($9.9M) - N2
Larry Nance - ($10.4) - N1, would be pretty perfect. If we could create l-tax savings for NO, that may incentivize them.
Gabe Vincent ($10.5M) - N2
Maxi Kleber ($11M) - N1
Bobby Portis ($11.7M) - N1. My favorite option. the Bucks need a SG more than a PF/C, so maybe they'd bite. I don't think they would.
Chris Boucher ($11.8M) - N1. I'd pass.
Group 4: Grayson + Nas (+ minimums as necessary)
Marvin Bagley ($12.5) - N1. I'd pass
Isaiah Stewart ($4.4M, but extended) - N1
Dorian Finney Smith ($13.9M) - N1, wouldn't be worth it, IMO
PJ Washington ($16.85) - N1. This one would be really interesting. I think he's exactly what we're missing. Charlotte gets depth. Hmm.
Trade Path #3 - Teams doing right by vets
Here are some vets I could see becoming available as teams fall out of contention. These players could also be bought out and targets for us on the buyout market.
Danilo Galinari, Mike Muscala, Otto Porter, Thad Young, Monte Morris, Cedi Osman