Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

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specialsauce
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by specialsauce »

Superbone wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:36 pm
Man, just went back and saw that AIG started this thread on January 27th. Just imagine how many death could have been avoided if the country had been concerned then.
How would you have expected them to handle this differently to have a drastic change in course?

I don’t mean that in a confrontational manner. I’m not a supporter of this administration and I don’t agree with many of their decisions. I just don’t see any response that would have significantly changed the course, short of locking down all travel and immediately closing all state borders and enforcing a stay at home order.

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Superbone
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Superbone »

specialsauce wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 10:13 pm
Superbone wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:36 pm
Man, just went back and saw that AIG started this thread on January 27th. Just imagine how many death could have been avoided if the country had been concerned then.
How would you have expected them to handle this differently to have a drastic change in course?

I don’t mean that in a confrontational manner. I’m not a supporter of this administration and I don’t agree with many of their decisions. I just don’t see any response that would have significantly changed the course, short of locking down all travel and immediately closing all state borders and enforcing a stay at home order.
Basically, I was surprised how early this thread was started. I’m not saying it would have had to happen exactly then. But I think it was in early March Trump was saying there were 15 infected and soon none. Just a week earlier stay at home cuts out 30,000 lives from what I’ve read.
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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy »

specialsauce wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 10:13 pm
Superbone wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:36 pm
Man, just went back and saw that AIG started this thread on January 27th. Just imagine how many death could have been avoided if the country had been concerned then.
How would you have expected them to handle this differently to have a drastic change in course?

I don’t mean that in a confrontational manner. I’m not a supporter of this administration and I don’t agree with many of their decisions. I just don’t see any response that would have significantly changed the course, short of locking down all travel and immediately closing all state borders and enforcing a stay at home order.
My entire company started a no travel/work from home for every possible employee 2 weeks before NYC did because we were listening to people from around the world and watching it blow up. If the entire world would have started doing this March 1st or even March 30th, we would likely all be back to work by now, with ~100,000 less people dead across the globe.

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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy »

Ugh. Highest single day of new COVID cases was yesterday... 6 months into the spread. Not a great sign for those states in the US that are 're-opening.' And then Ducey announced yesterday that school will be starting in person, and on time in AZ.

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Cap
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Cap »

Indy wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 6:34 am
And then Ducey announced yesterday that school will be starting in person, and on time in AZ.
How can we know anything about what the situation will be like in September? How can a decision be made on this now?

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition »

Cap wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 7:40 am
Indy wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 6:34 am
And then Ducey announced yesterday that school will be starting in person, and on time in AZ.
How can we know anything about what the situation will be like in September? How can a decision be made on this now?
I believe that school starts in early August.
"When we all think alike, nobody is thinking" - Walter Lippmann
"Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them." ~ Frederick Douglass

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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy »

In2ition wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 9:03 am
Cap wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 7:40 am
Indy wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 6:34 am
And then Ducey announced yesterday that school will be starting in person, and on time in AZ.
How can we know anything about what the situation will be like in September? How can a decision be made on this now?
I believe that school starts in early August.
I depends on the district, because some have modified year-round which starts in July, but yeah, the others do start in mid to late August. Either way, it is really stupid to say that right now. AZ is being called out with FL as just a few states that are actively trying to obfuscate their COVID data.

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition »

Indy wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 9:58 am
In2ition wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 9:03 am
Cap wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 7:40 am
Indy wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 6:34 am
And then Ducey announced yesterday that school will be starting in person, and on time in AZ.
How can we know anything about what the situation will be like in September? How can a decision be made on this now?
I believe that school starts in early August.
I depends on the district, because some have modified year-round which starts in July, but yeah, the others do start in mid to late August. Either way, it is really stupid to say that right now. AZ is being called out with FL as just a few states that are actively trying to obfuscate their COVID data.
My dad sent me a text yesterday. He lives in KS and he talked to someone in their governer's office that said that the numbers being reported are greatly exaggerated. Not to make this political, but this person was a Democrat, btw.
"When we all think alike, nobody is thinking" - Walter Lippmann
"Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them." ~ Frederick Douglass

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Mori Chu
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Mori Chu »

In2ition wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:12 am
My dad sent me a text yesterday. He lives in KS and he talked to someone in their governer's office that said that the numbers being reported are greatly exaggerated. Not to make this political, but this person was a Democrat, btw.
I'm sorry, but I call bullshit on posts like this. We have lots and lots of news stories from reputable outlets, backed up by data, showing that the numbers are legit and if anything are underreported. Then the response is total hearsay. "I heard from a guy who heard from a guy who says it's all fake." Do you realize that you're choosing to believe a third- or fourth-hand rumor over verified news media and stats and data? Why do you think that you are inclined to do that?

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Mori Chu
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Mori Chu »

Indy wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 6:34 am
Ugh. Highest single day of new COVID cases was yesterday... 6 months into the spread. Not a great sign for those states in the US that are 're-opening.' And then Ducey announced yesterday that school will be starting in person, and on time in AZ.
Hi Indy, I tried to find data to support your comment but couldn't. Yesterday was the highest single day of cases? Do you mean in the state of AZ or in the country as a whole?

Worldometer says that yesterday we had +22k cases yesterday (May 28). That is high, but not as high as the peak of +38k on April 24. When I google for AZ stats, it says that May 28 had +501 cases in AZ, while the peak was +581 cases on May 8.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Am I misunderstanding your post? Or do you have some data I haven't seen?

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition »

Mori Chu wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:19 am
In2ition wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:12 am
My dad sent me a text yesterday. He lives in KS and he talked to someone in their governer's office that said that the numbers being reported are greatly exaggerated. Not to make this political, but this person was a Democrat, btw.
I'm sorry, but I call bullshit on posts like this. We have lots and lots of news stories from reputable outlets, backed up by data, showing that the numbers are legit and if anything are underreported. Then the response is total hearsay. "I heard from a guy who heard from a guy who says it's all fake." Do you realize that you're choosing to believe a third- or fourth-hand rumor over verified news media and stats and data? Why do you think that you are inclined to do that?
You can calm down, Marty. I'm just giving you what I got from my dad. I'm not a investigative journalist.
"When we all think alike, nobody is thinking" - Walter Lippmann
"Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them." ~ Frederick Douglass

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Cap
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Cap »

So it’s been two and a half weeks since the economy started to reopen, but I’m still sitting at home. When and how will we know that it’s safe to go back out there?

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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy »

Mori Chu wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:21 am
Indy wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 6:34 am
Ugh. Highest single day of new COVID cases was yesterday... 6 months into the spread. Not a great sign for those states in the US that are 're-opening.' And then Ducey announced yesterday that school will be starting in person, and on time in AZ.
Hi Indy, I tried to find data to support your comment but couldn't. Yesterday was the highest single day of cases? Do you mean in the state of AZ or in the country as a whole?

Worldometer says that yesterday we had +22k cases yesterday (May 28). That is high, but not as high as the peak of +38k on April 24. When I google for AZ stats, it says that May 28 had +501 cases in AZ, while the peak was +581 cases on May 8.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Am I misunderstanding your post? Or do you have some data I haven't seen?
Go back to worldometers and don't just filter by US. On planet earth, there were over 116,000 new cases reported yesterday alone. Nearly 6,000 people died, yesterday alone.

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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy »

Cap wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:44 am
So it’s been two and a half weeks since the economy started to reopen, but I’m still sitting at home. When and how will we know that it’s safe to go back out there?
When the spread is dying down. I would keep an eye on JH and Worldometers and when you see your area meeting the CDC recommendations of 14 consecutive days of declining cases, you should be much safer. maricopa county isn't close yet. They have had some ups and downs, but without stable numbers you can't make accurate assumptions either way. And I wouldn't want to make an assumption of safety based on unstable numbers.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epid ... /index.php

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specialsauce
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

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Cap
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

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Mori Chu
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Mori Chu »

Second wave is just about to begin in many parts of the country.

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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy »

specialsauce wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 7:21 pm
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/lo ... 284501002/

Welcome home Indy
fucking hell. The great thing about where I live right now is that our governor is following science. I am not sure what to do once I am back in AZ in 15 days and then Ducey orders the schools to open in July.

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Cap
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Cap »

How come the new cases graph at AZDHS doesn’t look like the one in the news article?

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Nodack
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack »

They are pretty similar.
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epid ... /index.php

Google - arizona covid cases

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