Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

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Nodack
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:37 pm

Surgeon general: Stop buying masks
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4 ... ying-masks
“Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!” Adams tweeted Saturday.

“They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!” he added.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by pickle » Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:42 am

I saw this. I think it's a reasonable assumption because in the US population density is far lower than China, South Korea, and Japan. However, if you do travel by public transportation or otherwise need to be in close proximity to other human beings whose health histories you are not familiar with, then masks definitely decrease your chance of being infected. If masks are not effective in protecting people, then hospitals won't be needing them either. The fact of the matter is that, short of a full body hazmat suit, masks and goggles are the primary form of protection for doctors and nurses against Covid-19.

His statement is simply not accurate, but possibly prudent in the current environment because the mask manufacturing industry is just not set up for a widespread hoarding and cannot scale up quickly to meet a sudden spike in demand.

You don't need to wear a mask when you are out in the open in most scenarios I can think of. But if you are indoors, particularly in confined spaces, masks help. Maybe more telecommuting is the solution, but that's not something most of us can dictate. I am not advocating that everyone should have a couple of hundred masks in their doomsday bunker, but keep a couple of dozen on hand in case you have to go to crowded indoor spaces.

The cases in South Korea spread because one women who was suspected of carrying the disease (and later confirmed) joined a thousand person cult event. The people on the Diamond Princess Cruise were also without mask.

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Nodack
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:33 pm

I admit I am getting a little nervous. People are starting to hoard supplies and masks. I am a musician and play a lot of corporate parties, weddings, etc and my wife works at the airport. Airlines are starting to shut down routes. There are less people traveling right now and airlines are starting to need fewer employees and hours. Corporate parties and weddings could shut down as well. Sporting and other events are starting to cancel. The stock market is freaking out. This is definitely global and effecting everything.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by pickle » Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:34 pm

I had a chat with a friend yesterday on how this might affect the economy. I think this will definitely lower economic activity and impact brick and mortar stores that depend on foot traffic. On the other hand, might be a decent time to buy some Amazon and Purell stock.

Try to shore up your finances to weather the next couple of months. Once we are all clear of this, the economy will rebound as I don't think this disease changes our general way of life. If anything the rebound will bring vengeful spending and kick the economy into high gear for a couple of months.

It does suck right now, but it's not all doom and gloom.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy » Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:05 am

pickle wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:34 pm
I had a chat with a friend yesterday on how this might affect the economy. I think this will definitely lower economic activity and impact brick and mortar stores that depend on foot traffic. On the other hand, might be a decent time to buy some Amazon and Purell stock.

Try to shore up your finances to weather the next couple of months. Once we are all clear of this, the economy will rebound as I don't think this disease changes our general way of life. If anything the rebound will bring vengeful spending and kick the economy into high gear for a couple of months.

It does suck right now, but it's not all doom and gloom.
Amazon is around 65% of its 52-week range, so I agree it might be a great time to buy.

Good news is that mortgage rates are going down again. I saw a quote yesterday for a 2.75% on a 15 year loan.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by AmareIsGod » Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:07 pm

I think we should be concerned, folks.
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Nodack
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:07 pm

Everybody will be ordering everything online now, if they haven’t already. Grocery stores were delivering before in some areas. I think that might pick up some. All the drivers will be wearing hazmat suits.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:16 pm

They say you aren’t supposed to touch your face. I have been getting a kick out of how many leaders are doing public service speeches about not touching your face and then they touch their face.


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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Flagrant Fowl » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:28 pm

AmareIsGod wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:07 pm
I think we should be concerned, folks.
The elderly and people with preexisting conditions should be concerned. Their families too, of course.

Ordinary healthy people don't have much to worry about other than possibly infecting an at risk person.
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Superbone » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:45 pm

My 80-year-old mother had to cancel her cruise this summer.
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Cap » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:52 pm

Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:28 pm
AmareIsGod wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:07 pm
I think we should be concerned, folks.
The elderly and people with preexisting conditions should be concerned. Their families too, of course.

Ordinary healthy people don't have much to worry about other than possibly infecting an at risk person.
Ordinary healthy people are not going to like having the virus, even if it doesn’t kill them.
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Flagrant Fowl » Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:02 pm

Cap wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:52 pm
Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:28 pm
AmareIsGod wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:07 pm
I think we should be concerned, folks.
The elderly and people with preexisting conditions should be concerned. Their families too, of course.

Ordinary healthy people don't have much to worry about other than possibly infecting an at risk person.
Ordinary healthy people are not going to like having the virus, even if it doesn’t kill them.
It's very unlikely to kill them and it's possible to have mild symptoms. Being sick is always disliked, but we're not talking about bubonic plague or something when it comes to infecting a person in good health.
UOducks4life in a previous life. Valar Morghulis.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Superbone » Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:26 pm

OK, now I'm concerned. My favorite sport is halting until further notice.
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by pickle » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:52 am

There's a wide range of possible outcomes. Some people exhibit almost no symptoms whatsoever, and others do get very sick. It's not the plague, but it's also not very well understood, and it doesn't hurt to take some basic precautions. Probably shouldn't dismiss the disease outright just because we are young-ish and healthy-ish.

Having said that, what makes this virus scary is the very fact that so many people exhibit such mild symptoms that they don't realize they are carriers and therefore it spreads so much wider than other more powerful diseases.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Flagrant Fowl » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:10 pm

pickle wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:52 am
There's a wide range of possible outcomes. Some people exhibit almost no symptoms whatsoever, and others do get very sick. It's not the plague, but it's also not very well understood, and it doesn't hurt to take some basic precautions. Probably shouldn't dismiss the disease outright just because we are young-ish and healthy-ish.

Having said that, what makes this virus scary is the very fact that so many people exhibit such mild symptoms that they don't realize they are carriers and therefore it spreads so much wider than other more powerful diseases.
This is all true and I never want to dismiss the disease itself, just the hysteria spread by some people. Panicking doesn't help anyone in this situation.

A month ago I heard from fellow Americans over here considering their options for going back home to the US. I always maintained that it's much safer and cheaper to stay in Korea during this time, and that was before the US even had a sniff of a single outbreak. The lack of testing and infrastructure related to containing the outbreaks in the US is very discouraging. There I go with some of my own hysteria...
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:30 pm

At this point I think we should just shut it all down like Italy for two weeks and snuff it out right. It’s obviously taking off in the US. The top health official in Ohio saying she believe they have 100,000 cases of the virus already? Yes, I know that’s suspected cases and not confirmed cases. The US has tested 10,000 people total. They are charging you for the test if you do get one. SK tests 10,000+ every day... free.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:40 pm

Coronavirus patients may be contagious for weeks longer than first thought, study says
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation ... 24531.html
Researchers looking at cases in China say patients could spread the virus for up to 37 days after they start showing symptoms, according to the study published in the British medical journal The Lancet.

On average, survivors still had the virus in their respiratory system for about 20 days and could presumably continue to spread the disease, researchers found.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Superbone » Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:39 pm

Check this visual out for some perspective:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/histor ... deadliest/
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:47 am

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Total confirmed 198,193

Total deaths 7,954

2.5% mortality?

We thought the young were mostly unaffected. Not always.

Coronavirus doctor says lung scans for young patients were ‘nothing short of terrifying’
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/coronavir ... errifying/

“They just walk in, but they are terribly affected by the virus,” Demeyer told the Belgian broadcaster VRT. He said CT scans indicated they were suffering from severe lung damage. “The images we took yesterday are nothing short of terrifying,” the doctor told the station.

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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:10 am

Nodack wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:47 am
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Total confirmed 198,193

Total deaths 7,954

2.5% mortality?

We thought the young were mostly unaffected. Not always.

Coronavirus doctor says lung scans for young patients were ‘nothing short of terrifying’
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/coronavir ... errifying/

“They just walk in, but they are terribly affected by the virus,” Demeyer told the Belgian broadcaster VRT. He said CT scans indicated they were suffering from severe lung damage. “The images we took yesterday are nothing short of terrifying,” the doctor told the station.
70,000 new confirmed cases in last 5 days. That doesn't count all the pending tests.

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