NK/US Tensions Heat Up

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Nodack
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Nodack » Sat Aug 19, 2017 3:03 am

China has gone on record saying that if NK attacks the US, they will remain neutral. If the US attacks NK, China will side with NK.
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Indy
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Indy » Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:01 am

Nodack wrote:China has gone on record saying that if NK attacks the US, they will remain neutral. If the US attacks NK, China will side with NK.

Sounds about right. They are NKs biggest trade partner. It all comes down to money.
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Marty [Mori Chu]
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Marty [Mori Chu] » Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:36 am

My understanding was that China doesn't particularly want a unified (South-style) Korea to be right at their border. If the North were overtaken and liberated and united with SK, then a large stretch of China's land border would now be a country sympathetic to US/democratic interests. Likely there would even be significant numbers of US troops stationed there. That's the last thing they want. So China has a vested interest in NK staying how it is, as opposed to the only real alternative.
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Indy
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Indy » Mon Aug 21, 2017 10:21 am

There are already 30,000 troops stationed in the south. But, yeah, they don't want more US influence there. And if the N/S combine, there is no way their main trade partner remains China.
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Cap
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Cap » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:36 am

My guess is that the kind of war Trump would wage — unrestrained by international laws of war and designed to inflict civilian casualties — would force millions of NK refugees across the border into China. That makes it hard to imagine China remaining neutral.
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Marty [Mori Chu]
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Marty [Mori Chu] » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:26 pm

Indy wrote:There are already 30,000 troops stationed in the south. But, yeah, they don't want more US influence there. And if the N/S combine, there is no way their main trade partner remains China.


I know that there are tens of thousands of US troops in SK. I just meant that if NK ever fell and became a unified democratic Korea, the US troops would probably be up in the northern region very close to China's border. And China wouldn't want that. They like having NK as a physical buffer.
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Nodack
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Nodack » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:46 pm

They sure do. China, Russia and NK don't always get along that well but, they are pretty united in their fear and distrust of the US. I don't think China or Russia wanted NK to have nukes but they do like the buffer and the fact that NK scares the US. Their posture right now is a more united stance against us and that makes me uneasy. Russia flying bombers over NK in support of NK? How do we really know China and Russia aren't helping NK aquire what it needs to launch ICBM's at this point?

NK just conducted a nucleaar test.

Here is some guy doing an analysis of the situation. A snippet
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/01/asia/russ ... index.html

"I think China is confident that its economic development, its military development, takes place at a faster pace than Russia, so in the long run Russia is in no position to seriously challenge Chinese core interests," said Tong Zhao, a fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing. "There are certain elements of competition between the two countries, but their shared concerns about the US very much outweigh that right now."

Both Moscow and Beijing "share the basic perception of who is the real trouble maker and who is the biggest common threat in the Korean Peninsula," Tong told CNN.
That trouble maker, he said, is the United States, and more specifically, the occupant in the White House.
"Secretary (Rex) Tillerson says he wants to do diplomacy before considering other options but the rhetoric from other people in the White House -- (US President Donald) Trump tweeting that talking is not the answer, I think from the Chinese perspective the US is still considering a military option so that doesn't reassure leaders in North Korea or China," Tong said.
Every action Pyongyang takes, said Tong, could be construed by Beijing and Moscow as a reaction to Trump's escalated posture.


Trump having three Generals calling the shots now has calmed some of the crazy but, also worries me some. If the Cuban missile crisis happened today, the outcome would probably be different. The military brass was pushing Kennedy to go to war. Kennedy didn't listen and we avoided war. What would Trump do with three Generals all pushing him to go to war? In this case ot appears his generals are trying to talk down the escalation while Trump keeps fanning the flames.
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AmareIsGod
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby AmareIsGod » Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:27 am

Speaking of all of this. Hearing news NK tested a megaton bomb. Measured 6.3. 30x more powerful than their last test.
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ShelC
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby ShelC » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:39 am

Every action Pyongyang takes, said Tong, could be construed by Beijing and Moscow as a reaction to Trump's escalated posture.


Which is BS because NK's been doing this for years. NK is doing what they want regardless of who's President.
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Nodack
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Nodack » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:11 pm

NK has been doing what they want regardless of who is President of the US. All our threats and sanctions have done nothing to deter their nuclear ambitions. I don't recall any other Presidents going nearly this far in making military threats before. At this point NK has nukes and they have a delivery system. They are a nuclear power now. We can blame the other Presidents for not doing enough to stop them but, aside from all out war there seems to me there was no other option.

I think it's time to accept the fact that NK is a nuclear power. Starting an all out war with them to stop an all out war seems pointless and easily could lead to an escalation with Russia and China, leading to the end of the planet. Unless China and Russia decide to make a stance and join with the US in threatening NK I see no reason to continue threatening them. I think it's time to start ignoring them unless they actually do attack.
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Nodack
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Nodack » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:01 pm

We know Trump is a guy who says things that few take very seriously, such as when he promised Fire and Fury if NK threatens us or our allies ever again, which was met by detailed threats and missiles fired from NK. Trumps handlers have since tried to diffuse Trumps comments to calm the situation.

Last night NK tested a powerful nuke underground setting off alarm bells. The UN is having a special meeting over it.

James Madison, Defense Secretary today.
"Any threat to the US or any of it's allies will be met with a massive military response."

Any "threat"? The last time Trump said that NK immediately threatened Guam. This isn't Trump. This is the Secretary of Defense, a former General. This is seriously scary stuff.
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Flagrant Fowl
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Flagrant Fowl » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:29 pm

Blah, blah, blah...
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ShelC
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby ShelC » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:22 am

I think Mattis left "any threat" vague on purpose. Any verbal threat? Military threat? NK wants nukes as a deterrent, which is what they seem to have at this point.

I also think (or want to think) the "massive military response", line was more Trump than Mattis, who seems like a pretty measured guy. I also don't think these generals around Trump are as war hungry as the ones around JFK during Cuba. I'm sure there are a few cowboys in the group, but I don't think they're starting WW3.
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Indy
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Re: NK/US Tensions Heat Up

Postby Indy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:27 am

ShelC wrote:I think Mattis left "any threat" vague on purpose. Any verbal threat? Military threat? NK wants nukes as a deterrent, which is what they seem to have at this point.

I also think (or want to think) the "massive military response", line was more Trump than Mattis, who seems like a pretty measured guy. I also don't think these generals around Trump are as war hungry as the ones around JFK during Cuba. I'm sure there are a few cowboys in the group, but I don't think they're starting WW3.

I know someone that worked directly for Mattis in the relatively recent past. I get the impression it is completely Trump and Mattis would be doing everything he can to prevent something stupid from happening.

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