Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:29 am
Not only do we not have a handle, but we’re worse off now than at any point thus far. States reopened, people going out and about, protestors all gathering. This country deserves everything coming its way. Bunch of myopic, superficial, immediate satisfaction requiring fools on one end, and flat out uneducated, ignorant, “I will not be a sheep and wear a mask” fools on the other that are an embarrassment for the USA. AZ is about to get really bad. But ask me how I really feel.3rdside wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 1:56 amGoing back to the question of is it ok for players to return to the NBA - July 31st sounds reasonable to me. If you said they should return today, I don't think that's ok as USA hasn't got a handle on the virus yet, like Germany did before it restarted.3rdside wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 3:04 amI think it's safe for players to go back imo - it's happened in Germany already with their football league and with empty stadiums - but be prepared to shut it down if necessary. If I was a player and my future livelihood depended on my health, maybe I wouldn't be so sure.JeremyG wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 3:41 pmIf they wait until it is "safe" then they will never play again, because it will never be "safe." Life itself is not safe. Living always comes with a risk of dying. Tens of thousands of Americans die every year in car accidents, but we don't say that people shouldn't drive to the arena because there is a risk of death.Mori Chu wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 9:58 amNo, we cannot agree on that. I don't think they should be playing. There is risk to the players, coaching staff, and many others associated with the league. They'll all be in confined spaces breathing heavily and sharing air. I support them trying to figure out a way to play when it's safe, but I don't agree with your comment that it is "ridiculous" for them not to be playing. Basketball is not the most important thing right now. If even one person working in the NBA dies needlessly due to them going back to play early, it was a disaster. And while the players may be at lower risk due to being healthy, there are many older people around the league who would be in the same confined spaces, such as coaches, GMs, staff, even janitors, media people, etc.JeremyG wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 6:46 pmCan we all at least agree that it's ridiculous for the NBA to not be playing, when the CDC says that the virus has a case fatality rate of 0.03% for people under 50? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html And even most of those are likely people with underlying conditions, so if you only include healthy, athletic individuals that number would drop even lower.
According to your logic, the NBA has been risking people's lives every year during flu season. The same CDC link I shared says that their best estimate for the COVID-19 fatality rate among symptomatic cases is 0.4% among all age groups (0.26% if you include asymptomatic cases). That is about 3 times the death rate for the flu. Let's also go with the CDC's estimate of infection rate of 2.5 (about 1.67 times that of the flu). In other words, people have about a 5 times greater chance of death from going to a basketball game during Covid than they do during flu season.
So if we have let's say 50 people (players and staff) at each game instead of the average 17,750 people (355 times more people divided by 5 [5 times less likely to die]), that means we are 71 times more likely to have someone die from a normal NBA basketball game during flu season than we are to have someone die from a 50-person NBA game during COVID.
In order to have a greater risk of death than playing NBA games during flu season, the NBA would have to have over 3,550 people in the building.
EDIT: And that's not even including any temperature checks, testing, distancing, or any preventive measures.
Flu has an even higher percentage of asymptomatic cases and the CDC says it can be transmitted asymptomatically. Look it up.specialsauce wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:09 amNot only do we not have a handle, but we’re worse off now than at any point thus far. States reopened, people going out and about, protestors all gathering. This country deserves everything coming its way. Bunch of myopic, superficial, immediate satisfaction requiring fools on one end, and flat out uneducated, ignorant, “I will not be a sheep and wear a mask” fools on the other that are an embarrassment for the USA. AZ is about to get really bad. But ask me how I really feel.3rdside wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 1:56 amGoing back to the question of is it ok for players to return to the NBA - July 31st sounds reasonable to me. If you said they should return today, I don't think that's ok as USA hasn't got a handle on the virus yet, like Germany did before it restarted.3rdside wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 3:04 amI think it's safe for players to go back imo - it's happened in Germany already with their football league and with empty stadiums - but be prepared to shut it down if necessary. If I was a player and my future livelihood depended on my health, maybe I wouldn't be so sure.JeremyG wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 3:41 pmIf they wait until it is "safe" then they will never play again, because it will never be "safe." Life itself is not safe. Living always comes with a risk of dying. Tens of thousands of Americans die every year in car accidents, but we don't say that people shouldn't drive to the arena because there is a risk of death.Mori Chu wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 9:58 am
No, we cannot agree on that. I don't think they should be playing. There is risk to the players, coaching staff, and many others associated with the league. They'll all be in confined spaces breathing heavily and sharing air. I support them trying to figure out a way to play when it's safe, but I don't agree with your comment that it is "ridiculous" for them not to be playing. Basketball is not the most important thing right now. If even one person working in the NBA dies needlessly due to them going back to play early, it was a disaster. And while the players may be at lower risk due to being healthy, there are many older people around the league who would be in the same confined spaces, such as coaches, GMs, staff, even janitors, media people, etc.
According to your logic, the NBA has been risking people's lives every year during flu season. The same CDC link I shared says that their best estimate for the COVID-19 fatality rate among symptomatic cases is 0.4% among all age groups (0.26% if you include asymptomatic cases). That is about 3 times the death rate for the flu. Let's also go with the CDC's estimate of infection rate of 2.5 (about 1.67 times that of the flu). In other words, people have about a 5 times greater chance of death from going to a basketball game during Covid than they do during flu season.
So if we have let's say 50 people (players and staff) at each game instead of the average 17,750 people (355 times more people divided by 5 [5 times less likely to die]), that means we are 71 times more likely to have someone die from a normal NBA basketball game during flu season than we are to have someone die from a 50-person NBA game during COVID.
In order to have a greater risk of death than playing NBA games during flu season, the NBA would have to have over 3,550 people in the building.
EDIT: And that's not even including any temperature checks, testing, distancing, or any preventive measures.
Uh, and this whole logic behind the flu and COVID is completely flawed. In general people are aware they are ill with the flu and stay home. Up to 40% of COVID is through asymptomatic transmission.Completely erroneous comparison IMO.
If someone is "taking the virus seriously" and staying home, then how are they going to catch it? This is another argument for liberty...those exercising their freedoms are choosing to take the risk.
Where do you see the horrified outrage from the media or governors about mass gatherings by peaceful protesters? It's literally almost crickets. At most, you have them saying "Be careful and wear a mask." The same advice could be said about filling sports stadiums.
I heard it from the Mayor of Atlanta last night as I was reading this on my iPad.JeremyG wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:42 pmWhere do you see the horrified outrage from the media or governors about mass gatherings by peaceful protesters? It's literally almost crickets. At most, you have them saying "Be careful and wear a mask." The same advice could be said about filling sports stadiums.
This is a misleading post.JeremyG wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:35 pmFlu has an even higher percentage of asymptomatic cases and the CDC says it can be transmitted asymptomatically. Look it up.specialsauce wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:09 amNot only do we not have a handle, but we’re worse off now than at any point thus far. States reopened, people going out and about, protestors all gathering. This country deserves everything coming its way. Bunch of myopic, superficial, immediate satisfaction requiring fools on one end, and flat out uneducated, ignorant, “I will not be a sheep and wear a mask” fools on the other that are an embarrassment for the USA. AZ is about to get really bad. But ask me how I really feel.3rdside wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 1:56 amGoing back to the question of is it ok for players to return to the NBA - July 31st sounds reasonable to me. If you said they should return today, I don't think that's ok as USA hasn't got a handle on the virus yet, like Germany did before it restarted.3rdside wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 3:04 amI think it's safe for players to go back imo - it's happened in Germany already with their football league and with empty stadiums - but be prepared to shut it down if necessary. If I was a player and my future livelihood depended on my health, maybe I wouldn't be so sure.JeremyG wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 3:41 pm
If they wait until it is "safe" then they will never play again, because it will never be "safe." Life itself is not safe. Living always comes with a risk of dying. Tens of thousands of Americans die every year in car accidents, but we don't say that people shouldn't drive to the arena because there is a risk of death.
According to your logic, the NBA has been risking people's lives every year during flu season. The same CDC link I shared says that their best estimate for the COVID-19 fatality rate among symptomatic cases is 0.4% among all age groups (0.26% if you include asymptomatic cases). That is about 3 times the death rate for the flu. Let's also go with the CDC's estimate of infection rate of 2.5 (about 1.67 times that of the flu). In other words, people have about a 5 times greater chance of death from going to a basketball game during Covid than they do during flu season.
So if we have let's say 50 people (players and staff) at each game instead of the average 17,750 people (355 times more people divided by 5 [5 times less likely to die]), that means we are 71 times more likely to have someone die from a normal NBA basketball game during flu season than we are to have someone die from a 50-person NBA game during COVID.
In order to have a greater risk of death than playing NBA games during flu season, the NBA would have to have over 3,550 people in the building.
EDIT: And that's not even including any temperature checks, testing, distancing, or any preventive measures.
Uh, and this whole logic behind the flu and COVID is completely flawed. In general people are aware they are ill with the flu and stay home. Up to 40% of COVID is through asymptomatic transmission.Completely erroneous comparison IMO.
USA a sad spectacle at the moment. UK hardly covering itself in glory either but perhaps is doing its sh*t show a little more quietly.specialsauce wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:09 amNot only do we not have a handle, but we’re worse off now than at any point thus far. States reopened, people going out and about, protestors all gathering. This country deserves everything coming its way. Bunch of myopic, superficial, immediate satisfaction requiring fools on one end, and flat out uneducated, ignorant, “I will not be a sheep and wear a mask” fools on the other that are an embarrassment for the USA. AZ is about to get really bad. But ask me how I really feel.3rdside wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 1:56 amGoing back to the question of is it ok for players to return to the NBA - July 31st sounds reasonable to me. If you said they should return today, I don't think that's ok as USA hasn't got a handle on the virus yet, like Germany did before it restarted.3rdside wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 3:04 amI think it's safe for players to go back imo - it's happened in Germany already with their football league and with empty stadiums - but be prepared to shut it down if necessary. If I was a player and my future livelihood depended on my health, maybe I wouldn't be so sure.JeremyG wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 3:41 pmIf they wait until it is "safe" then they will never play again, because it will never be "safe." Life itself is not safe. Living always comes with a risk of dying. Tens of thousands of Americans die every year in car accidents, but we don't say that people shouldn't drive to the arena because there is a risk of death.Mori Chu wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 9:58 am
No, we cannot agree on that. I don't think they should be playing. There is risk to the players, coaching staff, and many others associated with the league. They'll all be in confined spaces breathing heavily and sharing air. I support them trying to figure out a way to play when it's safe, but I don't agree with your comment that it is "ridiculous" for them not to be playing. Basketball is not the most important thing right now. If even one person working in the NBA dies needlessly due to them going back to play early, it was a disaster. And while the players may be at lower risk due to being healthy, there are many older people around the league who would be in the same confined spaces, such as coaches, GMs, staff, even janitors, media people, etc.
According to your logic, the NBA has been risking people's lives every year during flu season. The same CDC link I shared says that their best estimate for the COVID-19 fatality rate among symptomatic cases is 0.4% among all age groups (0.26% if you include asymptomatic cases). That is about 3 times the death rate for the flu. Let's also go with the CDC's estimate of infection rate of 2.5 (about 1.67 times that of the flu). In other words, people have about a 5 times greater chance of death from going to a basketball game during Covid than they do during flu season.
So if we have let's say 50 people (players and staff) at each game instead of the average 17,750 people (355 times more people divided by 5 [5 times less likely to die]), that means we are 71 times more likely to have someone die from a normal NBA basketball game during flu season than we are to have someone die from a 50-person NBA game during COVID.
In order to have a greater risk of death than playing NBA games during flu season, the NBA would have to have over 3,550 people in the building.
EDIT: And that's not even including any temperature checks, testing, distancing, or any preventive measures.
Uh, and this whole logic behind the flu and COVID is completely flawed. In general people are aware they are ill with the flu and stay home. Up to 40% of COVID is through asymptomatic transmission.Completely erroneous comparison IMO.
Yeah you’re right.AmareIsGod wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:43 amStop trying sauce. You can't convince people like him. They are set in their beliefs and will fight tooth and nail regardless of and facts you present. You're wasting your breath.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/spread.htmSymptoms can begin about 2 days (but can range from 1 to 4 days) after the virus enters the body. That means that you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick. Some people can be infected with the flu virus but have no symptoms. During this time, those people may still spread the virus to others.
The percentage of people that are asymptomatic with the flu is substantially lower than carriers of Covid-19. Therein lies the problem. Nobody is saying that carriers of the flu aren't ever asymptomatic. I'm not sure what point you're trying to debate here. If it's "the flu is more deadly and dangerous than Covid-19", that's wrong. The symptoms of the flu pale in comparison to the severity of the symptoms of Covid-19. The number of cases, due to the lack of widespread testing, along with the number of reported deaths are grossly understated when talking about Covid-19. I really don't know what factual information you are trying to present to paint a picture of the flu being more severe and deadly. It's not.JeremyG wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:13 pmDirect quote from the CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/spread.htmSymptoms can begin about 2 days (but can range from 1 to 4 days) after the virus enters the body. That means that you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick. Some people can be infected with the flu virus but have no symptoms. During this time, those people may still spread the virus to others.
That's not factual. Estimates vary but they are generally higher than for Covid.AmareIsGod wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:47 pmThe percentage of people that are asymptomatic with the flu is substantially lower than carriers of Covid-19. Therein lies the problem.JeremyG wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:13 pmDirect quote from the CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/spread.htmSymptoms can begin about 2 days (but can range from 1 to 4 days) after the virus enters the body. That means that you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick. Some people can be infected with the flu virus but have no symptoms. During this time, those people may still spread the virus to others.