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Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:35 am
by Indy
Mori Chu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:26 am
Indy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:30 am
Mori Chu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:24 am
specialsauce wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:35 pm
Don’t believe the CNN polls. CNN is so freaking slanted now. I can’t stand watching. Their entire programming goal is to destroy the Republicans. Any attempt at reporting news without bias is gone.
Even biased networks often have reputable polling. Fox News does polls, and they're shockingly often not so bad.
More persuasive than the CNN poll is the fact that 5-6 polls came out on Monday, almost all of which have Biden up by +10 or more.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Yes but general election/popular vote polls are not very meaningful when we have an electoral college process.
A national popular vote lead of +10 is almost insurmountable. The polling in many of the battleground states also has Biden ahead by noticeable margins, though admittedly not +10. More like +3-5 in several of the relevant states.
It depends on their formulas for representing under-polled folks, the fact that answering a question on the phone is different than taking off work and standing in line for hours to cast a vote, and their margin of error (usually 4%). It is still a close race. Much closer than it should be if people were truly voting on what is best for 330,000,000 Americans.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:44 am
by Nodack
The election is in November. This is June. We still have about 3-4 scandals between now and then to go through. Polls don’t mean much to me at this point.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:17 am
by Flagrant Fowl
Put this one on your cork board for how Trump will attempt to cheat in the next election.
His newly appointed Postmaster General is a Trump campaign donating CEO who has no prior experience in the US Postal Service.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ne ... s-n1231124
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:58 am
by 3rdside
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:01 pm
by 3rdside
From the WP:
Facebook removes Trump ads with symbol once used by Nazis to designate political prisoners:
By
Isaac Stanley-Becker
June 18, 2020 at 7:48 p.m. GMT+2
In its online salvo against antifa and “far-left mobs,” President Trump’s reelection campaign displayed a marking the Nazis once used to designate political prisoners in concentration camps.
A red inverted triangle was first used in the 1930s to identify Communists, and was applied as well to Social Democrats, liberals, Freemasons and other members of opposition parties. The badge forced on Jewish political prisoners, by contrast, featured a yellow triangle overlaid by a red triangle.
In response to queries from The Washington Post, Facebook on Thursday afternoon deactivated ads that included the inverted red triangle.
The red symbol appeared in paid posts sponsored by Trump and Vice President Pence, as well as by the “Team Trump” campaign page. It was featured alongside text warning of “Dangerous MOBS of far-left groups” and asking users to sign a petition about antifa, a loose collection of anti-fascist activists whom the Trump administration has sought to link to recent violence, despite arrest records that show their involvement is trivial.
“We removed these posts and ads for violating our policy against organized hate,” said Andy Stone, a Facebook spokesman. "Our policy prohibits using a banned hate group’s symbol to identify political prisoners without the context that condemns or discusses the symbol.”
But the ads on the president’s page alone, which began running on Wednesday, gained as many as 950,000 impressions by Thursday morning. Identical ads on Pence’s page gained as many as 500,000 impressions.
How antifa became Trump's biggest target
President Trump has been blaming antifa for civil unrest. Here's where that idea originated and why it doesn't make sense. (Zach Purser Brown/The Washington Post)
Tim Murtaugh, a spokesman for the Trump campaign, said, “The red triangle is an antifa symbol,” pointing to examples of iPhone cases and water bottles branded with the insignia. A more common emblem for the anti-fascist movement includes two flags, one red and one black, enclosed in a circle.
Although certain symbols the Nazis deployed have been reclaimed, including the pink triangle used in concentration camps to label gay inmates, the red triangle has not been recast in a similar way, said Jacob S. Eder, a historian of modern Germany at the Barenboim–Said Akademie in Berlin.
“I think it’s a highly problematic use of a symbol that the Nazis used to identify their political enemies,” he said. “It’s hard to imagine it’s done on purpose, because I’m not sure if the vast majority of Americans know or understand the sign, but it’s very, very careless, to say the least.”
Deborah E. Lipstadt, a leading American scholar of the Holocaust, said the inclusion of the symbol in alarmist advertising bore echoes of the campaign’s initial decision to hold a rally in Tulsa on June 19, known as Juneteenth in commemoration of the end of slavery. Trump delayed the rally by a day following an outcry.
“It’s an insensitivity, and likely indicative of who’s around the table when these decisions are being made,” she said. “I find it shocking.”
Bend the Arc: Jewish Action
@jewishaction
The President of the United States is campaigning for reelection using a Nazi concentration camp symbol.
Nazis used the red triangle to mark political prisoners and people who rescued Jews.
Trump & the RNC are using it to smear millions of protestors.
Their masks are off.
View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter
14.7K
7:07 AM - Jun 18, 2020
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12.1K people are talking about this
Murtaugh, the Trump campaign spokesman, noted that the marking is not included in the Anti-Defamation League’s database of hate symbols. But the ADL’s CEO, Jonathan Greenblatt, condemned its use in political combat as “offensive and deeply troubling.”
“It is not difficult for one to criticize their political opponent without using Nazi-era imagery,” Greenblatt said in a statement. “We implore the Trump campaign to take greater caution and familiarize themselves with the historical context before doing so. Ignorance is not an excuse for appropriating hateful symbols.”
Jake Hyman, an ADL spokesman, said the marking is not in the organization’s hate database because the inventory is not for “historical Nazi symbols" but rather for “symbols commonly used by modern extremists and white supremacists in the United States.”
Bend the Arc: Jewish Action, a progressive advocacy group, also condemned the use of the notorious symbol in campaign advertising.
“This isn’t just one post,” the group wrote on Twitter. “This is dozens of carefully targeted ads from the official pages of Mike Pence, Donald Trump, and Team Trump. All paid for by Trump and the Republican National Committee. All spreading lies and genocidal imagery.”
Eighty-eight ads with the inverted red triangle ran in total — across pages for Trump, Pence and the official “Team Trump” page on the social network.
Variations of the ad used a yield sign, which has the same shape and a similar color scheme but is notably distinct in featuring only a red outline and a white interior. Some of the material also featured a stop sign.
Trump has made antifa — a label associated with anti-fascist protesters who infamously sparred with far-right figures after his election in 2016 — a centerpiece of his response to recent demonstrations in the aftermath of the killing of George Floyd in police custody in Minneapolis. The effort to rally his supporters using the specter of a marauding horde resembles the emphasis he placed on the threat of a migrant caravan heading to the U.S. border in the lead-up to the midterm election in 2018.
As protests spread to small-town America, militia groups respond with armed intimidation and online threats
So far, however, the alleged menace has been mostly nonexistent — a focal point of online alarm not reflected in scenes of mostly peaceful protest nationwide. Despite warnings of antifa incursions in scores of cities, there is no evidence linking outbursts of violence to an organized left-wing effort.
During the 2016 campaign, Trump tweeted, and then deleted, a graphic showing Hillary Clinton alongside $100 bills and a six-pointed Star of David — the type of star that the Nazis forced Jews to wear on their clothing. The then-candidate insisted in a statement that the insignia was not anti-Semitic because it represented a sheriff’s badge, not the stigmatized Star of David.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:24 pm
by 3rdside
I got WP for $1 for 4 weeks, then $1 per week thereafter.
That .. is a deal.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:30 pm
by Indy
3rdside wrote: ↑Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:24 pm
I got WP for $1 for 4 weeks, then $1 per week thereafter.
That .. is a deal.
Yeah I went with the $29/year subscription. It goes up to 100 for year 2, but $2/week is cheap. And I will probably cancel and they will send me a cheaper deal for year 2.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:47 pm
by 3rdside
Indy wrote: ↑Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:30 pm
3rdside wrote: ↑Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:24 pm
I got WP for $1 for 4 weeks, then $1 per week thereafter.
That .. is a deal.
Yeah I went with the $29/year subscription. It goes up to 100 for year 2, but $2/week is cheap. And I will probably cancel and they will send me a cheaper deal for year 2.
Just don't miss the auto renewal date I guess as I'm sure that's how they make money - I nearly got burned last week for $350 with a data science platform but they were kind enough to just charge me a month and refund the rest. Haven't always been so lucky like that before, either.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:52 pm
by Mori Chu
I subscribe to WaPo. I find them more balanced than NYT. I have been considering subscribing to The Atlantic, as well. I find I often enjoy their articles.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:48 pm
by Superbone
3rdside wrote: ↑Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:24 pm
I got WP for $1 for 4 weeks, then $1 per week thereafter.
That .. is a deal.
I did that same deal for the NY Times.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:24 am
by Nodack
Joe Biden’s latest ad.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:24 pm
by Superbone
Maybe he'll like this one better:
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:29 am
by 3rdside
Seriously good article on the USA:
https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... mp/613228/
I comment by saying I believe in the USA assuming Trump loses, but that the article is a little too pro-USA right at the end by underselling the strengths of europe.
The USA, imo, has more to learn from it (healthcare, meritocracy, equality etc) than the other way around, but that’s not to discount the absolute strengths of USA.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:36 am
by ShelC
The US doesn't want to learn and improve because of profits made by corporations and CEOs who buy the politicians. It would take a rebalancing and redistribution of wealth and taxes that the super rich won't give up.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:03 am
by Cap
3rdside wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:29 am
I comment by saying I believe in the USA assuming Trump loses, but that the article is a little too pro-USA right at the end by underselling the strengths of europe.
Our problems with Trump don’t end when he loses.
The position of Trump, Fox News, and the vast majority of conservatives and Republican office holders, will be that the election was stolen through massive voter fraud by radical leftist terrorists and traitors.
If Trump is forced from office under those conditions, there will be blood in the streets, and law enforcement will be on the side of the Trumpers. Also, the Senate will block
everything: Biden will not be allowed to appoint a cabinet or any judges, and will not get any signable legislation, including a budget or a debt ceiling raise.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:43 am
by Indy
Cap wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:03 am
3rdside wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:29 am
I comment by saying I believe in the USA assuming Trump loses, but that the article is a little too pro-USA right at the end by underselling the strengths of europe.
Our problems with Trump don’t end when he loses.
The position of Trump, Fox News, and the vast majority of conservatives and Republican office holders, will be that the election was stolen through massive voter fraud by radical leftist terrorists and traitors.
If Trump is forced from office under those conditions, there will be blood in the streets, and law enforcement will be on the side of the Trumpers. Also, the Senate will block
everything: Biden will not be allowed to appoint a cabinet or any judges, and will not get any signable legislation, including a budget or a debt ceiling raise.
You are still assuming there is no realistic way for Biden to win and have the GOP lose the Senate. It might not be the likeliest outcome right now, but it is getting close. Current polling (including those seats not up for re-election) shows 45 safe GOP seats, 48 safe Dem seats, and the rest within margin of error.
Of the remaining 7 seats, 5 are leaning Dem:
Kelly is up 9 points in AZ.
Bullock is up 7 points in MT.
Iowa and Georgia are even in play.
Even Lindsey Graham is in a statistical tie with his challenger.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:56 am
by 3rdside
Indy wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:43 am
Cap wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:03 am
3rdside wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:29 am
I comment by saying I believe in the USA assuming Trump loses, but that the article is a little too pro-USA right at the end by underselling the strengths of europe.
Our problems with Trump don’t end when he loses.
The position of Trump, Fox News, and the vast majority of conservatives and Republican office holders, will be that the election was stolen through massive voter fraud by radical leftist terrorists and traitors.
If Trump is forced from office under those conditions, there will be blood in the streets, and law enforcement will be on the side of the Trumpers. Also, the Senate will block
everything: Biden will not be allowed to appoint a cabinet or any judges, and will not get any signable legislation, including a budget or a debt ceiling raise.
You are still assuming there is no realistic way for Biden to win and have the GOP lose the Senate. It might not be the likeliest outcome right now, but it is getting close. Current polling (including those seats not up for re-election) shows 45 safe GOP seats, 48 safe Dem seats, and the rest within margin of error.
Of the remaining 7 seats, 5 are leaning Dem:
Kelly is up 9 points in AZ.
Bullock is up 7 points in MT.
Iowa and Georgia are even in play.
Even Lindsey Graham is in a statistical tie with his challenger.
A landslide win and control of the senate the best way to solve all the issues (or at least begin to, in the case of the USA’s structural ones that go beyond Trump) .. and under normal circumstances it would surely happen considering the state of play right now, but Joe Biden my god he looks like a liability. I hope there’s a strategy to get him through the debates - like intravenous adrenaline or something - because he looks so gd fragile and Trump will destroy him.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:03 am
by 3rdside
There is always trump’s own sanity to question .. no-one, not even he, would be immune to the pressure of reality right now - he’s got practically nothing tangible to claim credit for and it appears to be getting worse - so hopefully his cracks start to open up even more. That response he gave to Hannity over night about his priorities if he wins another term a case in point.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:57 am
by Nodack
I am with Indy. I am hoping America has had enough of this Clown and his enablers in Congress. I don’t have much faith in Democrats after they get control to get it done either. Our system is broken IMO. Elections won’t fix it.
Re: Democratic primary watch
Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:09 am
by ShelC
Nah the Dems will just restore "normalcy" and Biden will work in good faith with the Rs.