One of President Trump's most loyal propagandists is predicting that Trump will claim victory on election night as soon as he is ahead among Election Day voters. But that scenario is based on a misconception of how all ballots are counted and the early returns are compiled, according to election and legal experts.
"At 10 o'clock or 11 o'clock… on November 3, Donald J. Trump is going to walk into the Oval Office, and he may hit a tweet before he goes in there… and he's going to sit there, having won Ohio, and being up in Pennsylvania and Florida, and he's going to say, 'Hey, game's over,'" said Stephen K. Bannon, Trump's 2016 campaign CEO and former White House adviser, during a defiant speech on October 10 forum hosted by the Young Republican Federation of Virginia.
Re: The RNC
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:11 am
by Mori Chu
What I keep coming back to is the RealClearPolitics list of background state polls. These states are the ones that will truly decide the election on Nov 3. So far, the numbers look pretty good for Biden:
FL Biden +1.0
PA Biden +3.8
MI Biden +7.3
WI Biden +6.2
NC Biden +2.0
AZ Biden +3.1
Several of those are within a reasonable error margin, especially Florida and North Carolina. But if Biden picks up the entire rust-belt (MI, MN, WI) and also nabs 1-2 states like AZ or PA, he'll be in a strong position. It's also quite interesting that normally red states like FL, NC, GA, maybe even TX are in play. I don't think Biden will win most of those, but if he peels off even 1 of them, it'd be huge for him.
What I keep coming back to is the RealClearPolitics list of background state polls. These states are the ones that will truly decide the election on Nov 3. So far, the numbers look pretty good for Biden:
FL Biden +1.0
PA Biden +3.8
MI Biden +7.3
WI Biden +6.2
NC Biden +2.0
AZ Biden +3.1
Several of those are within a reasonable error margin, especially Florida and North Carolina. But if Biden picks up the entire rust-belt (MI, MN, WI) and also nabs 1-2 states like AZ or PA, he'll be in a strong position. It's also quite interesting that normally red states like FL, NC, GA, maybe even TX are in play. I don't think Biden will win most of those, but if he peels off even 1 of them, it'd be huge for him.
Florida is not a normally Red state. They voted for Clinton his 2nd term, and both terms for Obama.
But to your point, Trump would have to win all of the "safe" red states, then win all of the ones currently leaning red just outside of the margin of error, then win the ones leaning red within the margin of error (OH, GA, TX), then win all of the ones leaning blue but within the margin of error (IA, FL, NC, AZ), then win at least one of the larger states that are currently outside the margin of error for Biden (PA or MI, or combine a couple like NV+MN or WI+MN). And a tone of them are already tallying votes. I know they won't release the results until election night, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 50M votes already counted by then, not counting anything that happens on election day.
Re: The RNC
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:45 am
by ShelC
I don't expect Florida to have any of its shit together in terms of election integrity/vote totals and will most likely do it what it can to end up red. Texas seems to be doing the same. I believe Biden in 2016 would've picked up the rust belt states that Obama won and Hillary lost, along with PA and would've beaten Trump. I think Michigan and PA should be locks for him, WI seems to be headed that way as well. I doubt TX or AZ turn blue. Florida would seal it IMO.
I don't expect Florida to have any of its shit together in terms of election integrity/vote totals and will most likely do it what it can to end up red. Texas seems to be doing the same. I believe Biden in 2016 would've picked up the rust belt states that Obama won and Hillary lost, along with PA and would've beaten Trump. I think Michigan and PA should be locks for him, WI seems to be headed that way as well. I doubt TX or AZ turn blue. Florida would seal it IMO.
I'd bet real money that AZ is blue if you give me even odds. Not FL though.
Re: The RNC
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:18 pm
by ShelC
Speaking of Florida
Re: The RNC
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:48 pm
by Flagrant Fowl
I'll speculate that the massive early voting numbers are disproportionately skewing toward Biden and Trump will have a larger Election Day turnout than Biden to close the gap.
Between interference, suppression and outright fraud, I can't really say what'll happen in the days afterward.
I'll speculate that the massive early voting numbers are disproportionately skewing toward Biden and Trump will have a larger Election Day turnout than Biden to close the gap.
Between interference, suppression and outright fraud, I can't really say what'll happen in the days afterward.
Just based on Florida being Florida, I would expect it to go Red this year. They are still fighting to remove people from the voting roles this week.
And with the stacked Texas supreme court ruling that having a single drop off location per county was totally fine, I don't see any way it does stay safely in the Trump camp.
Ohio is in a similar situation. I have family there in both rural and urban areas, and you wouldn't believe how much money Trump has paid out to farmers after they were killed during his trade wars. The farmers in my family are adamant they are better off financially now than before Trump was in office, primarily due to the bail outs.
Ohio is in a similar situation. I have family there in both rural and urban areas, and you wouldn't believe how much money Trump has paid out to farmers after they were killed during his trade wars. The farmers in my family are adamant they are better off financially now than before Trump was in office, primarily due to the bail outs.
Ohio is in a similar situation. I have family there in both rural and urban areas, and you wouldn't believe how much money Trump has paid out to farmers after they were killed during his trade wars. The farmers in my family are adamant they are better off financially now than before Trump was in office, primarily due to the bail outs.
Socialists for Trump!
EXACTLY
Re: The RNC
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:15 am
by Mori Chu
Yeah, I agree; I'd be shocked if Biden won Florida or Texas. I know the polls have them neck-and-neck in those states, but I just think they come back home to being slightly red on election day. Lot of hicks and racists and old people in both states to shore up the Republican base.
Re: The RNC
Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:49 pm
by Nodack
Helen Mirren and Sarah Cooper Re-enact The Access Hollywood Tape.