Democratic primary watch

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Superbone
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Superbone » Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:10 pm

Here's a NY Times article discussing the Tara Reade accusations:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/us/p ... a9eaab6fd0
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virtual9mm
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by virtual9mm » Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:52 pm

Mori Chu wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:10 pm
Conservative (but never-Trumpy) web site The Bulwark has some interesting opinion pieces on the Tara Reade / Biden allegations.

https://thebulwark.com/what-biden-has-to-say/
https://arcdigital.media/a-tale-of-two- ... 4504d6228a
I like the Bulwark quite a bit. One of the last bits of Republicanism that hasn't caved in to Trump-worship. Must have been how Trotskyites felt like in the 1930s in the Soviet Union.

Regarding the Biden accusations -- regardless of the truth of this matter, we don't have much of a choice, do we? If Trump wins, 2020 will be the last semi-fair election we will have for decades, perhaps. I have no idea what might or might not be true. But I do have a good idea about the potential ramifications -- we get a doddering creepy uncle who would play a Gerald Ford kind of role in stabilizing the country, or we get someone with 10x the number of accusations who will transform the US into a thinly veiled authoritarian state. Regardless of the truth of the matter, the choice seems clear to me.

Unless you're into drinking Clorax, of course.

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Superbone
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Superbone » Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:15 pm

No, it's very clear out of the choices available.
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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Fri May 01, 2020 12:58 am

Mori Chu wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:02 am
3rdside wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:01 am
Is it too late to replace Biden with Mark Cuban?

The D's gonna get slammed for their hypocrisy, Biden's going to look like a an old age-demented touchy feely weirdo, and Trump's going to skate through with the help of every authoritarian state's campaign interference..
I think the media will be quite kind to Biden. That factor may cause them to downplay the seriousness of the Reade allegations.
Maybe so but Biden is still Biden - he's not a strong candidate and voters can see that. Again, tactical voting / anyone but Trump doesn't matter for many people.

And Trump will have so many dirty tricks up his sleeve for the campaign and his pro-self media will spill into MSM media (see MSNBC leading with the Flynn story today) casting doubt where necessary (doesn't even need to be true) and cause huge damage to Biden and the Democrats, I'm sure of that.

Whether it's enough to win I don't know, but we shouldn't be talking like this about Trump - his presidency should be dead and buried already but it's not even close to that.

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Nodack
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Fri May 01, 2020 11:20 am

My mother the die hard Trump fan likes Biden too for some reason. I don’t know if that translates across the nation into votes. I don’t want to vote for Biden but, it looks like I will have to. He has some baggage with the Ukraine thing, the sex scandal and getting old enough to start to forget things. That is still better than Satan.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Sun May 03, 2020 2:50 am

I spoke with a friend yesterday who just got laid off in the middle east - he's not in the best state of mind right now but I mentioned I thought the USA is in real trouble if Trump gets back in and he verbally snapped back that it isn't.

Wisely left that conversation alone but thought that as he invests in shares in the USA, his view relates to this single issue.

Or maybe he doesn't like China's approach to the world and see's Trump standing up against that.

Anyway, it's always worrying to see such a huge disconnect between my view and someone else's.

I try to appreciate what Trump's done but can't work out what that actually is, especially in view of his grifting / dishonesty / dumb sh*t policies like rich enriching tax cuts in the good times so in the bad times, like now, there's even less govt money to boost an economy.

I'd like to start a Trump Appreciation Thread so I can understand the disconnect.

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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Sun May 03, 2020 2:50 am

Trump Pros

- Standing up to China on trade - even though done in a dumb ass way costing the USA a load of money via higher prices and govt money lost propping up non-competitive industries, literally the definition of socialism. The better way would have been getting a consensus approach with international allies.

- Installing conservative SC judges - if you're a Republican .. surely the method to achieve this suggests dishonesty? But this seems lost on the R's, and he's stacking the lower courts with unqualified looney right wing judges.

- ISIS in retreat - but even Lindsey Graham says the extent to which Trump is claiming victory is garbage, and further analysis shows worrying second order effects, and he sold out the Kurds which is a disgrace.

- Getting Nato allies to pay in more - I agree with this on the surface, but don't like how he's framed it as America is subsidising their costs because it's not. They're just not paying as much as they verbally agreed to. The USA military industrial complex is the deeper issue at play here - Europe underfunds NATO as it see's the world moving towards a more peaceful existence, thus making military and weapons expenditure increasingly redundant, the USA maintains its violent approach at home and abroad, which is the real issue to be addressed, imo, and which is far beyond Trump's limited world view and capability.

- He's not a Democrat

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Mon May 04, 2020 1:24 am

- Jerusalem as Israel's capital - I don't know enough about this to comment, but with Trump and Netanyahu involved forgive me for thinking this isn't the right move.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Mon May 04, 2020 11:31 pm

Okay, maybe a little ambitious so I'll try to finish the list here, mainly from the god awful RealClearPolitics site:

- USMCA trade agreement - don't know enough to comment
- Slowing illegal immigration - but separating children from parents is barbaric, and ICE is little better. Ends do not justify means.
- Killed Al-Baghdadi - don't know enough but he sounded like a bad dude even though straight assassinations are risky
- Natural Gas - America became a net natural gas exporter for the first time since Eisenhower
- Space Force - sounds as stupid as its creator but not the worst idea in the world to explore there

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Nodack
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Tue May 05, 2020 2:20 am

NATO is a little tardy with the money. The US is always tops. I think one thing WWII taught us is that being at the top of the military food chain is the only way to stop aggression and to ensure you don’t get eaten. That is expensive and can be a money pit that can destroy a country as much as bombs. Keeping an eye on your rivals and staying ahead but, not bankrupting your country is a fine line. The US does shoulder a lot and would have it no other way. Let China or Russia move ahead of us? I don’t think so. NATO relies on the US too much. Lately we have been stressing our allies out. Maybe that’s just Trump shaking them down some trying to get some money out of them. I value NATO. I believe it’s purpose was to stop another World War. So far, so good. We have had regional wars but, not a world war between super powers. Nukes also play a hand in that deterrence.

Space Force sounds a little silly. We certainly don’t have a fleet of star ships patrolling space but, we do have a lot of satellites as does a lot of other countries. Those satellites are the eyes and ears of ours and others military’s. Protecting, sabotaging or destroying our satellites or the satellites of enemies would be crucial in war with countries like Russia and China. We have already deliberately shot down a satellite that was going to fall prompting China to warn of a space race. Space force or just another part of the Air Force? If it comes down to shooting down satellites it won’t be from space ships, it will be from ship in the ocean probably or maybe another armed satellite, which I think we probably already have and don’t advertise.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Tue May 05, 2020 3:44 am

Nodack wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 2:20 am
NATO is a little tardy with the money. The US is always tops. I think one thing WWII taught us is that being at the top of the military food chain is the only way to stop aggression and to ensure you don’t get eaten.
While I don't disagree, they've also set the world onto a violent path - had USA devoted its trillions to peace keeping, building its own, and foreign economies (like the Chinese are doing with their huge infrastructure projects in Africa, Latin America etc) rather than destroying them via war and intervention, the whole arms race thing would be far less important.

Nodack wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 2:20 am
That is expensive and can be a money pit that can destroy a country as much as bombs. Keeping an eye on your rivals and staying ahead but, not bankrupting your country is a fine line.
USA didn't do itself any economic or moral favours by going into Iraq and then blindly following deregulation into the greatest recession of our era, but how it's subsequent economic performance is after printing of money for virus support - further increasing the debt pile - will determine its status, starting with USD as the global reserve currency.

If economic growth is anaemic, and there's a bad policy decision in conjunction, that might be a shock enough to see the world move away from USD and send it into a tail spin .. made far more likely if incompetent Trump's at the helm (so needless to say the 2020 election is important).

Nodack wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 2:20 am
The US does shoulder a lot and would have it no other way. Let China or Russia move ahead of us? I don’t think so. NATO relies on the US too much. Lately we have been stressing our allies out. Maybe that’s just Trump shaking them down some trying to get some money out of them.
To stay one step ahead, sure, but the size of USA's military spending vs the rest of the world's combined is excessive, and in this world of Mutually Assured Destruction, what's the point? Not least when Vietnam and Iraq proved it's not about the size of your budget.

And you only need to step one foot in the USA to see how its citizens are paying the price by being less well off vs. other developed nations in terms of infrastructure, quality of cities, destitution etc. And no one's asking the USA to spend that much (which is where the MIC comes in).

I applaud Trump's trying to even the scales on Nato, as mentioned, but again, Europe doesn't believe in war where America does, and when Donald Tusk - former head of the European Council (and total dude) said of him: "with Trump as our friend who needs enemies"? - a hugely damning comment, a shake down is just not going to be that effective.

Nodack wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 2:20 am
I value NATO. I believe it’s purpose was to stop another World War. So far, so good. We have had regional wars but, not a world war between super powers. Nukes also play a hand in that deterrence.
Like Nato, WHO, UN - even the EU maybe - they serve the right aims but are probably guilty of not being as effective as they should. Hopefully we see greater joint effort post-Corona.

Nodack wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 2:20 am
Space Force sounds a little silly. We certainly don’t have a fleet of star ships patrolling space but, we do have a lot of satellites as does a lot of other countries. Those satellites are the eyes and ears of ours and others military’s. Protecting, sabotaging or destroying our satellites or the satellites of enemies would be crucial in war with countries like Russia and China. We have already deliberately shot down a satellite that was going to fall prompting China to warn of a space race. Space force or just another part of the Air Force? If it comes down to shooting down satellites it won’t be from space ships, it will be from ship in the ocean probably or maybe another armed satellite, which I think we probably already have and don’t advertise.
I recognise it's inherent in males but it's still sad to see aggression forming the basis for policy - we have enough tech and weapons to destroy the planet 10 times over yet we still blindly chase after military superiority as if that's the only thing that will win a war.

There is one possible counterargument (a bad one, mind you, but would be readily adopted by the Right) - if you accept that the ultimate race in the world is to develop true AI, then this might be facilitated by developing weaponry, as a lot of weapons tech has solved real world problems.

The real solution however - for me anyway - is to stop spending the money on the weapons and just put it into tech. And develop it collaboratively, with China, Russia etc to give mankind a decent chance at overcoming the sheer stupidity that is male ego.

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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Tue May 05, 2020 11:01 am

China is coming on strong. They are making everything and profiting off of it at our expense. They are leading in tech. While we are arguing whether solar is worth the effort they have dominated the solar race that isn’t really a race now. They built the worlds largest hydro electric dam. They built their first aircraft carrier from an old Russian one. They are building stealth bombers that look like our stealth bombers. They are building an army of drones designed to take out our aircraft carriers. While we are contracting from the world, they are moving in and taking that spot and we are the ones building China’s economy by buying everything from them. I think most of us see this happening and some think Trump is going to fix it all. I don’t see it. His style is to bully or kiss azz. Nothing is ever in the middle. He is either praising China or bashing them. He is either bashing NK or praising them with love. He has done the same with Europe and our allies now wonder whether the US is an ally anymore.

There are different kinds of war. War with a super power is a lot different than a war with say Afghanistan. In Afghanistan the enemy hides looks like everyone else. They plant road side bombs while we aren’t looking. They strap bombs on children. They aren’t a large force that we confront and defeat. Their goal is to outlast the US, not defeat them militarily.

A war with Russia and China would be a completely different war and having a superior military would make a difference. Ultimately it would come down to nukes again and that is why super powers resist the temptation, because it means the end of all life on the planet.

I think the US has to be at war with somebody all the time to justify having such a large military. If there is no conflict there is no reason to justify spending such vast numbers on the military. If we don’t buy a bunch of military hardware from military hardware companies, they go out of business. US military companies dominate the global market. If they go out of business we no longer have a supply chain and that makes us weak and vulnerable. Those companies spend a lot on lobbying to ensure politicians appropriate enough money to the next upgrade. It’s called the military industrial complex and we need to feed the beast at all times.

Rome was once the leader of the world. They conquered just about everybody but, the cost of keeping up those defenses in their world was their undoing in the end. I believe in a strong military as a deterrent. I don’t believe in these Middle East wars. They seem pointless to me other than practicing war. Afghanistan? What was the point again? To take out Bin Laden and Al Queda? What was the point of Iraq? To stop them from attacking us with their WMD? We haven’t improved life for anyone in those countries. We weren’t treated as liberators. We just killed a lot of people, lost a lot of people and spent a lot of money for what gain? Profits for the industrial military complex?

I get what you are saying 3rdside and partially agree. WWI ended and they all thought is was the last world war ever. Countries signed agreements limiting military hardware sizes etc. to prevent another arms race. Germany was the scapegoat from WWI and their country was decimated financially. People were angry and desperate. Then along comes this guy who promised to make Germany great again. He had a dominating bluster about him that won over the masses. He fanned the flames of hate and blamed the Jews and everyone else for Germany’s problems and they elected him Chancellor. He then assumed unlimited powers and ignored the military arms agreements and started building a massive military the likes no one had ever seen and eventually unleashed Blitzkrieg upon the world and came so close to world domination. NATO was formed to make sure that never happened again.

I don’t know the answer. I know we can’t continue to increase our debt like we are and hope to survive. Covid-19 has just increased that debt. We also can’t afford to let our military regress too much either. Companies and lobbyists run the country now anyway so, they are going to do whatever is best for the bottom line and what I think doesn’t matter anyway.
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Wed May 06, 2020 1:50 am

Mark Cuban says he hasn't 'closed the door' on possible presidential run
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/49616 ... h-into-but
“Right now we have nobody in the federal government that we can trust, yet we’re looking to them or for somebody who we can effectively trust with our lives. That’s what this pandemic is all about: Who can we trust with our lives? And there’s nobody there yet.”

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ShelC
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by ShelC » Wed May 06, 2020 3:35 am

Little late, no?

I'm also trying to learn and read more about Amash. Maybe he and Cuban can get together and make something happen. Cuban the name/face recognition and Amash the politician who can help him along in DC.

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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Wed May 06, 2020 3:47 am

Some background before replying - I started a fasting diet (16-8) yesterday, the things you do in isolation (!), and drank coffee with no food for 4 hours before writing it, and i'd just come off the phone to a female friend where we were "railing against the patriarchy", so no surprise to see both of those influencing my response.

I also see the world through the lens of idealism, with world peace as an achievable solution (it will be eventually, but maybe not just yet), so will happily acknowledge criticism for being too idealistic.

Anyway..


Yeah the USA outsourced it's middle class to China, and borrowed a load of money off it in the process. "Free Market Capitalism" but really just stupid decision making. Just like the financial crisis, and in came Trump..

And China has grown strong on the back of it, and is now mimicking USA's approach to militarisation as it has little choice considering how aggressive the USA is.

So with America rapidly declining the stage seems sadly set for a war as it tends to be a feature in the fall of empires, in this case an empire corrupting from within and a foreign power on the rise.

In what idiotic form it takes, as there are nukes, I have no idea.


And I don't exactly know the answer either but based on what I've read, and listening to Ray Dalio, creator of the world's largest hedge fund, from the USA's perspective it starts with removing Trump. Dalio is already 60:40 against America's future empire prospects, worse than that if he wins.

From the world's perspective, the USA's ill thought through, aggressive, ego lead, unilateral, contracts for the boys approach to wars has to stop, and some of it's policies have to change, like the war on drugs, guns and climate change.

And removing Trump can help this also - for as much as he promotes himself as anti-war if he's in charge as America starts to go down I really can't see that happening without a fight.
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Wed May 06, 2020 3:53 am

Dalio's really worth checking out by the way - he's applied his investment strategies (weighted probability models based on historical data that also factor in random events) to studying the rise and fall of empires.

History repeats itself over and over and he's successfully quantified that, so I put a lot of stock in his opinion.

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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Wed May 06, 2020 5:07 am

Just to add about America - and stating the obvious probably - it's got to get rid of the 'anything in the name of free markets' doctrine, which doesn't work, and Citizens United, which underpins all that.

Ambition is mankind's greatest gift, greed its greatest flaw ... and unregulated capitalism the perfect breeding ground for both.

Like Canada, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand (all former British colonies) and Northern European countries (UK and Japan are debatable), you can have the former without too much of the latter.

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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Wed May 06, 2020 9:43 pm

1. "railing against the patriarchy, lol" - hardly a man hater here
2. I'm pretty sure USA won't be at war against China within 4 years, but I suppose it's possible as:
3. Ray Dalio, empires and random events: the Corona virus is definitely one of those and we don't know how this is going to pan out.

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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Indy » Thu May 07, 2020 10:42 am

ShelC wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 3:35 am
Little late, no?

I'm also trying to learn and read more about Amash. Maybe he and Cuban can get together and make something happen. Cuban the name/face recognition and Amash the politician who can help him along in DC.
Living in MI I know a bit about Amash. He is a basic tea party GOP that came in during the wave of the Tea Party Movement. He is not a good choice for any seat in government because he seems to fundamentally believe the government isn't needed for anything. I get when things are good and you are well off and don't want people telling you what to do, that can be appealing. But right now, when the need of a government is as important as ever, it seems strange to still campaign as a tea party guy.

But I am hoping he sucks enough votes away from Trump in Michigan and AZ and maybe even Utah to ensure Trump loses. Early polling look really bad for him.

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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Thu May 07, 2020 1:27 pm

What he said.

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