Democratic primary watch

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Nodack
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:12 am

Would they pick the weakest candidate or the one they think would do the least harm? If the DNC could choose between Romney or Trump I am pretty sure they would pick Romney, not because he is weak but, because he has some morals left.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:00 am

My mistake in understanding how USA National Convention works.

It sounds workable although I still worry the country ends up with someone it doesn't really want, and if you're an R nominee do you then just pitch yourself as the most left of all the nominees and vice versa?

Meaning a slightly odd set of motivations, although these motivations do in theory bring the two parties closer which is the aim I guess.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:31 am

Political systems that effectively only allow voting for one candidate (where it's more or less a wasted vote otherwise, like two party systems in the UK and USA) is an issue.

Proportional Representation looks the better solution (that isn't a "first-past-the-post" version of it, which is what the UK has).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportio ... esentation

Most of those countries in the black box on the right a little down from the top of the page are countries with the most stable governments in the world (and some of the highest standards of living).

Switzerland and Austria, the two countries with the highest standard of living, aren't in the black box but also use PR and have very stable governments (and Switzerland may be the most democratic or stable of all, as while there is a nominated leader, that leader is just one of an executive branch of 7 people where he or she has no more power than the others).

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Indy
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Indy » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:48 am

Nodack wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:02 pm
I just thought of a new way to elect the President. Both sides have a primary to pick each other’s candidate. The Dems get to pick the Republican candidate out of those in the running. The Republicans pick the Dem candidate. No matter who wins it will be someone tolerable to both sides.

And no you can’t have someone like a Bernie Sanders switch sides and then run as a Republican that the Dems pick as the Republican nominee. They would have to be ones accepted by the Party.
I like the way you are trying to find ways to fix the broken system. We need to do something.

So the GOP gets to pick the candidate pool that registered Republicans get to pick from to run against a DNC approved candidate the Dem voters pick from? Just imagine how someone like McConnell would abuse that?

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Indy
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Indy » Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:05 am

3rdside wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:31 am
Political systems that effectively only allow voting for one candidate (where it's more or less a wasted vote otherwise, like two party systems in the UK and USA) is an issue.

Proportional Representation looks the better solution (that isn't a "first-past-the-post" version of it, which is what the UK has).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportio ... esentation

Most of those countries in the black box on the right a little down from the top of the page are countries with the most stable governments in the world (and some of the highest standards of living).

Switzerland and Austria, the two countries with the highest standard of living, aren't in the black box but also use PR and have very stable governments (and Switzerland may be the most democratic or stable of all, as while there is a nominated leader, that leader is just one of an executive branch of 7 people where he or she has no more power than the others).
It still can create marginalized populations. For example, neither of those countries has much racial disparity. There are less than 1% of black people in both of them. So they may have ‘high standards of living’ for much of the population, it might be better to look at it from the other side—how many people in different demographics are marginalized.

For example, if less than 1% of Austria is ‘oppressed’ or ‘marginalized’ but that 1% is made of of 75% of the black population or Muslim population in Austria, it really doesn’t matter that the vast majority has a great life.

Not sure the best way to measure that, though.


I think PR is better than what we have in the US, but I also don’t like the Party leadership picking the seat holders. It also doesn’t work well in rural areas because you can’t split a single seat 3 ways. I think we have 5 or 6 states with only one congressional district. And the senate seats are always 2. How do you split that?

The best thing we could do is find a way to get money out (which would decrease the power the two parties have) and move to a rank choice voting system that allows for immediate run offs/re-seating.

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Nodack
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:12 pm

Indy wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:48 am
Nodack wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:02 pm
I just thought of a new way to elect the President. Both sides have a primary to pick each other’s candidate. The Dems get to pick the Republican candidate out of those in the running. The Republicans pick the Dem candidate. No matter who wins it will be someone tolerable to both sides.

And no you can’t have someone like a Bernie Sanders switch sides and then run as a Republican that the Dems pick as the Republican nominee. They would have to be ones accepted by the Party.
I like the way you are trying to find ways to fix the broken system. We need to do something.

So the GOP gets to pick the candidate pool that registered Republicans get to pick from to run against a DNC approved candidate the Dem voters pick from? Just imagine how someone like McConnell would abuse that?
I think no matter what system you have, you will always have people trying to get away with as much as they possibly can. Our system used to work better. We had sort of an honor system going where certain things were out of bounds and you just didn’t do it for hundreds of years. There is no out of bounds for Trump and the GOP said F it, might as well go all in and see what happens. We have Trump openly calling for police to rough up people right after he was elected. He brags about having the police on his side and they in turn probably felt empowered by Trump. Now we have riots and mass protests over police violence.

I wish the people would see all the other BS Trump and Republicans have done and protest that too. I am drifting from the subject and that was fixing the problem. As Trump says, “Don’t blame me for taking advantage of the tax codes. I didn’t write them.” He has a point. If they can get away with it legally then the system isn’t functioning properly.

The Constitution says the President gets to pick the candidate for an open Supreme Court vacancy and the Senate has to approve the nominee. It doesn’t say anything about the Senate refusing to even consider a candidate the President picks because the President is of a different party than the majority in the Senate. It doesn’t say anything about delaying that vote for a year hoping a President is picked from your party so you can immediately vote to confirm his pick. I am not sure what the Constitution says about the Senate refusing to take up a vote on any Bills ratified in the House out of political spite.

For me our system is broken and we have lost all control over our politicians. The only thing that sways them towards doing what the people want is the thought of millions of Americans protesting and threatening chaos. As far as what to fix, that is a question for scholars.

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Mori Chu
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Mori Chu » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:10 pm

BTW, for what it's worth, Joe Biden officially clinched the Democratic Primary victory the other day. He's been the presumptive nominee for a while now, but it is official that he has received a majority of delegates from primary voting now.

A new CNN poll came out this week showing Biden ahead of Trump by 14 points nationally (!). That sounds a bit off to me; his RealClearPolitics polling average is around +7.8. But I do think the coronavirus pandemic, along with the recent anti-racism protests around the country, help Biden.

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specialsauce
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by specialsauce » Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:35 pm

Don’t believe the CNN polls. CNN is so freaking slanted now. I can’t stand watching. Their entire programming goal is to destroy the Republicans. Any attempt at reporting news without bias is gone.

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Superbone
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Superbone » Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:49 pm

A guy I play (well used to; due to the pandemic; not because of this) basketball with just sent me a Facebook message with a Trump political campaign video. I just responded, "Dude, let's avoid politics with each other. Thanks." Made me want to puke. Trump voice over what a great country we have and "the best is yet to come..."

This from the guy trying to single-handedly ruin my country.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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Nodack
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:09 pm

As you know my parents moved fairly recently. My mother used to get piles and piles of Trump/Republican mail every day. We were hoping they would lose their address in the move but, that was not the case.

I think I mentioned it before but, I got a letter from Trump telling me I am one of his most loyal supporters and gave me an official Trump team member identification card and key chain id. I was so happy he acknowledged me as being one of his most loyal supporters. It was such an honor. Of course he left me an envelope to put the check/donation to him in. I messaged a picture to all my friends and didn’t say anything and they were WTF! I got a good laugh out of it.

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Superbone
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Superbone » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:34 pm

Nodack wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:09 pm
As you know my parents moved fairly recently. My mother used to get piles and piles of Trump/Republican mail every day. We were hoping they would lose their address in the move but, that was not the case.

I think I mentioned it before but, I got a letter from Trump telling me I am one of his most loyal supporters and gave me an official Trump team member identification card and key chain id. I was so happy he acknowledged me as being one of his most loyal supporters. It was such an honor. Of course he left me an envelope to put the check/donation to him in. I messaged a picture to all my friends and didn’t say anything and they were WTF! I got a good laugh out of it.
Heh, that reminds me of the Curb Your Enthusiasm episode where Larry started wearing a MAGA hat so he didn’t have to go to lunch with a guy and then also to get a motorcycle rider to go easy on him after he cut him off. The motorcyclist starts going off on him like he’s going to beat him up so Larry puts the MAGA hat on and the dude suddenly shows him respect and tells him to just be careful next time.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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Superbone
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Superbone » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:37 pm

And I just got a thumbs up reply from his so that’s cool.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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Flagrant Fowl
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Flagrant Fowl » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:42 pm

Superbone wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:34 pm
Nodack wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:09 pm
As you know my parents moved fairly recently. My mother used to get piles and piles of Trump/Republican mail every day. We were hoping they would lose their address in the move but, that was not the case.

I think I mentioned it before but, I got a letter from Trump telling me I am one of his most loyal supporters and gave me an official Trump team member identification card and key chain id. I was so happy he acknowledged me as being one of his most loyal supporters. It was such an honor. Of course he left me an envelope to put the check/donation to him in. I messaged a picture to all my friends and didn’t say anything and they were WTF! I got a good laugh out of it.
Heh, that reminds me of the Curb Your Enthusiasm episode where Larry started wearing a MAGA hat so he didn’t have to go to lunch with a guy and then also to get a motorcycle rider to go easy on him after he cut him off. The motorcyclist starts going off on him like he’s going to beat him up so Larry puts the MAGA hat on and the dude suddenly shows him respect and tells him to just be careful next time.
The tribalism stuff is ubiquitous throughout culture and society. I just wish we could figure out a way to remove it from our progression and survival as a species.

Leave it for things like sports, because I will not hesitate to give the finger to someone with a Lakers sticker who cuts me off in traffic. On second thought, cutting me off in traffic isn't a requirement.
UOducks4life in a previous life. Valar Morghulis.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:16 am

Indy wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:05 am
3rdside wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:31 am
Political systems that effectively only allow voting for one candidate (where it's more or less a wasted vote otherwise, like two party systems in the UK and USA) is an issue.

Proportional Representation looks the better solution (that isn't a "first-past-the-post" version of it, which is what the UK has).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportio ... esentation

Most of those countries in the black box on the right a little down from the top of the page are countries with the most stable governments in the world (and some of the highest standards of living).

Switzerland and Austria, the two countries with the highest standard of living, aren't in the black box but also use PR and have very stable governments (and Switzerland may be the most democratic or stable of all, as while there is a nominated leader, that leader is just one of an executive branch of 7 people where he or she has no more power than the others).
It still can create marginalized populations. For example, neither of those countries has much racial disparity. There are less than 1% of black people in both of them. So they may have ‘high standards of living’ for much of the population, it might be better to look at it from the other side—how many people in different demographics are marginalized.

For example, if less than 1% of Austria is ‘oppressed’ or ‘marginalized’ but that 1% is made of of 75% of the black population or Muslim population in Austria, it really doesn’t matter that the vast majority has a great life.

Not sure the best way to measure that, though.


I think PR is better than what we have in the US, but I also don’t like the Party leadership picking the seat holders. It also doesn’t work well in rural areas because you can’t split a single seat 3 ways. I think we have 5 or 6 states with only one congressional district. And the senate seats are always 2. How do you split that?

The best thing we could do is find a way to get money out (which would decrease the power the two parties have) and move to a rank choice voting system that allows for immediate run offs/re-seating.
Have to say I quite like the Swiss way although it's not realistic for UK / USA ... no Churchill's / Kennedy's etc, and staying neutral on things isn't our style. I just resent power grabbers.


A broader view (as can be applied to healthcare, social security etc):

If a country (or company, or person) is doing it better than you, there is no shame in benchmarking.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:17 am

Superbone wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:34 pm
Nodack wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:09 pm
As you know my parents moved fairly recently. My mother used to get piles and piles of Trump/Republican mail every day. We were hoping they would lose their address in the move but, that was not the case.

I think I mentioned it before but, I got a letter from Trump telling me I am one of his most loyal supporters and gave me an official Trump team member identification card and key chain id. I was so happy he acknowledged me as being one of his most loyal supporters. It was such an honor. Of course he left me an envelope to put the check/donation to him in. I messaged a picture to all my friends and didn’t say anything and they were WTF! I got a good laugh out of it.
Heh, that reminds me of the Curb Your Enthusiasm episode where Larry started wearing a MAGA hat so he didn’t have to go to lunch with a guy and then also to get a motorcycle rider to go easy on him after he cut him off. The motorcyclist starts going off on him like he’s going to beat him up so Larry puts the MAGA hat on and the dude suddenly shows him respect and tells him to just be careful next time.
So revealing how Trump was celebrating the motorcycle / maga hat clip once it became public, like that's something to aim for.

So stupid, so blinkered.

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Superbone
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Superbone » Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:17 am

3rdside wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:17 am
Superbone wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:34 pm
Nodack wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:09 pm
As you know my parents moved fairly recently. My mother used to get piles and piles of Trump/Republican mail every day. We were hoping they would lose their address in the move but, that was not the case.

I think I mentioned it before but, I got a letter from Trump telling me I am one of his most loyal supporters and gave me an official Trump team member identification card and key chain id. I was so happy he acknowledged me as being one of his most loyal supporters. It was such an honor. Of course he left me an envelope to put the check/donation to him in. I messaged a picture to all my friends and didn’t say anything and they were WTF! I got a good laugh out of it.
Heh, that reminds me of the Curb Your Enthusiasm episode where Larry started wearing a MAGA hat so he didn’t have to go to lunch with a guy and then also to get a motorcycle rider to go easy on him after he cut him off. The motorcyclist starts going off on him like he’s going to beat him up so Larry puts the MAGA hat on and the dude suddenly shows him respect and tells him to just be careful next time.
So revealing how Trump was celebrating the motorcycle / maga hat clip once it became public, like that's something to aim for.

So stupid, so blinkered.
He doesn't even know when he's being made fun of. As long as it's about him, it's all good.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:19 am

Always about him...

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Mori Chu
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Mori Chu » Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:24 am

specialsauce wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:35 pm
Don’t believe the CNN polls. CNN is so freaking slanted now. I can’t stand watching. Their entire programming goal is to destroy the Republicans. Any attempt at reporting news without bias is gone.
Even biased networks often have reputable polling. Fox News does polls, and they're shockingly often not so bad.

More persuasive than the CNN poll is the fact that 5-6 polls came out on Monday, almost all of which have Biden up by +10 or more.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

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Indy
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Indy » Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:30 am

Mori Chu wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:24 am
specialsauce wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:35 pm
Don’t believe the CNN polls. CNN is so freaking slanted now. I can’t stand watching. Their entire programming goal is to destroy the Republicans. Any attempt at reporting news without bias is gone.
Even biased networks often have reputable polling. Fox News does polls, and they're shockingly often not so bad.

More persuasive than the CNN poll is the fact that 5-6 polls came out on Monday, almost all of which have Biden up by +10 or more.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Yes but general election/popular vote polls are not very meaningful when we have an electoral college process.

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Mori Chu
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Mori Chu » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:26 am

Indy wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:30 am
Mori Chu wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:24 am
specialsauce wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:35 pm
Don’t believe the CNN polls. CNN is so freaking slanted now. I can’t stand watching. Their entire programming goal is to destroy the Republicans. Any attempt at reporting news without bias is gone.
Even biased networks often have reputable polling. Fox News does polls, and they're shockingly often not so bad.

More persuasive than the CNN poll is the fact that 5-6 polls came out on Monday, almost all of which have Biden up by +10 or more.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Yes but general election/popular vote polls are not very meaningful when we have an electoral college process.
A national popular vote lead of +10 is almost insurmountable. The polling in many of the battleground states also has Biden ahead by noticeable margins, though admittedly not +10. More like +3-5 in several of the relevant states.

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