Democratic primary watch

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Indy
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Indy » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:35 am

Mori Chu wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:26 am
Indy wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:30 am
Mori Chu wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:24 am
specialsauce wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:35 pm
Don’t believe the CNN polls. CNN is so freaking slanted now. I can’t stand watching. Their entire programming goal is to destroy the Republicans. Any attempt at reporting news without bias is gone.
Even biased networks often have reputable polling. Fox News does polls, and they're shockingly often not so bad.

More persuasive than the CNN poll is the fact that 5-6 polls came out on Monday, almost all of which have Biden up by +10 or more.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Yes but general election/popular vote polls are not very meaningful when we have an electoral college process.
A national popular vote lead of +10 is almost insurmountable. The polling in many of the battleground states also has Biden ahead by noticeable margins, though admittedly not +10. More like +3-5 in several of the relevant states.
It depends on their formulas for representing under-polled folks, the fact that answering a question on the phone is different than taking off work and standing in line for hours to cast a vote, and their margin of error (usually 4%). It is still a close race. Much closer than it should be if people were truly voting on what is best for 330,000,000 Americans.

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Nodack
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:44 am

The election is in November. This is June. We still have about 3-4 scandals between now and then to go through. Polls don’t mean much to me at this point.

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Flagrant Fowl
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Flagrant Fowl » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:17 am

Put this one on your cork board for how Trump will attempt to cheat in the next election.

His newly appointed Postmaster General is a Trump campaign donating CEO who has no prior experience in the US Postal Service.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ne ... s-n1231124
Last edited by Flagrant Fowl on Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:58 am

Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:17 am
Put this one on your cork board for how Trump will attempt to cheat in the next election.

His newly appointed Postmaster General is a Trump campaign donating CEO who's did has no prior experience in the US Postal Service.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ne ... s-n1231124
This is beyond f**ked up

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:01 pm

From the WP:

Facebook removes Trump ads with symbol once used by Nazis to designate political prisoners:
Spoiler: show/hide

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:24 pm

I got WP for $1 for 4 weeks, then $1 per week thereafter.

That .. is a deal.

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Indy
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Indy » Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:30 pm

3rdside wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:24 pm
I got WP for $1 for 4 weeks, then $1 per week thereafter.

That .. is a deal.
Yeah I went with the $29/year subscription. It goes up to 100 for year 2, but $2/week is cheap. And I will probably cancel and they will send me a cheaper deal for year 2.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:47 pm

Indy wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:30 pm
3rdside wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:24 pm
I got WP for $1 for 4 weeks, then $1 per week thereafter.

That .. is a deal.
Yeah I went with the $29/year subscription. It goes up to 100 for year 2, but $2/week is cheap. And I will probably cancel and they will send me a cheaper deal for year 2.
Just don't miss the auto renewal date I guess as I'm sure that's how they make money - I nearly got burned last week for $350 with a data science platform but they were kind enough to just charge me a month and refund the rest. Haven't always been so lucky like that before, either.

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Mori Chu
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Mori Chu » Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:52 pm

I subscribe to WaPo. I find them more balanced than NYT. I have been considering subscribing to The Atlantic, as well. I find I often enjoy their articles.

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Superbone
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Superbone » Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:48 pm

3rdside wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:24 pm
I got WP for $1 for 4 weeks, then $1 per week thereafter.

That .. is a deal.
I did that same deal for the NY Times.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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Nodack
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:24 am

Joe Biden’s latest ad.


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Superbone
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Superbone » Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:24 pm

Maybe he'll like this one better:

Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:29 am

Seriously good article on the USA:

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... mp/613228/

I comment by saying I believe in the USA assuming Trump loses, but that the article is a little too pro-USA right at the end by underselling the strengths of europe.

The USA, imo, has more to learn from it (healthcare, meritocracy, equality etc) than the other way around, but that’s not to discount the absolute strengths of USA.

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ShelC
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by ShelC » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:36 am

The US doesn't want to learn and improve because of profits made by corporations and CEOs who buy the politicians. It would take a rebalancing and redistribution of wealth and taxes that the super rich won't give up.

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Cap
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Cap » Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:03 am

3rdside wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:29 am
I comment by saying I believe in the USA assuming Trump loses, but that the article is a little too pro-USA right at the end by underselling the strengths of europe.
Our problems with Trump don’t end when he loses.

The position of Trump, Fox News, and the vast majority of conservatives and Republican office holders, will be that the election was stolen through massive voter fraud by radical leftist terrorists and traitors.

If Trump is forced from office under those conditions, there will be blood in the streets, and law enforcement will be on the side of the Trumpers. Also, the Senate will block everything: Biden will not be allowed to appoint a cabinet or any judges, and will not get any signable legislation, including a budget or a debt ceiling raise.
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Indy
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Indy » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:43 am

Cap wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:03 am
3rdside wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:29 am
I comment by saying I believe in the USA assuming Trump loses, but that the article is a little too pro-USA right at the end by underselling the strengths of europe.
Our problems with Trump don’t end when he loses.

The position of Trump, Fox News, and the vast majority of conservatives and Republican office holders, will be that the election was stolen through massive voter fraud by radical leftist terrorists and traitors.

If Trump is forced from office under those conditions, there will be blood in the streets, and law enforcement will be on the side of the Trumpers. Also, the Senate will block everything: Biden will not be allowed to appoint a cabinet or any judges, and will not get any signable legislation, including a budget or a debt ceiling raise.
You are still assuming there is no realistic way for Biden to win and have the GOP lose the Senate. It might not be the likeliest outcome right now, but it is getting close. Current polling (including those seats not up for re-election) shows 45 safe GOP seats, 48 safe Dem seats, and the rest within margin of error.

Of the remaining 7 seats, 5 are leaning Dem:

Kelly is up 9 points in AZ.
Bullock is up 7 points in MT.
Iowa and Georgia are even in play.
Even Lindsey Graham is in a statistical tie with his challenger.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:56 am

Indy wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:43 am
Cap wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:03 am
3rdside wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:29 am
I comment by saying I believe in the USA assuming Trump loses, but that the article is a little too pro-USA right at the end by underselling the strengths of europe.
Our problems with Trump don’t end when he loses.

The position of Trump, Fox News, and the vast majority of conservatives and Republican office holders, will be that the election was stolen through massive voter fraud by radical leftist terrorists and traitors.

If Trump is forced from office under those conditions, there will be blood in the streets, and law enforcement will be on the side of the Trumpers. Also, the Senate will block everything: Biden will not be allowed to appoint a cabinet or any judges, and will not get any signable legislation, including a budget or a debt ceiling raise.
You are still assuming there is no realistic way for Biden to win and have the GOP lose the Senate. It might not be the likeliest outcome right now, but it is getting close. Current polling (including those seats not up for re-election) shows 45 safe GOP seats, 48 safe Dem seats, and the rest within margin of error.

Of the remaining 7 seats, 5 are leaning Dem:

Kelly is up 9 points in AZ.
Bullock is up 7 points in MT.
Iowa and Georgia are even in play.
Even Lindsey Graham is in a statistical tie with his challenger.
A landslide win and control of the senate the best way to solve all the issues (or at least begin to, in the case of the USA’s structural ones that go beyond Trump) .. and under normal circumstances it would surely happen considering the state of play right now, but Joe Biden my god he looks like a liability. I hope there’s a strategy to get him through the debates - like intravenous adrenaline or something - because he looks so gd fragile and Trump will destroy him.

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3rdside
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by 3rdside » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:03 am

There is always trump’s own sanity to question .. no-one, not even he, would be immune to the pressure of reality right now - he’s got practically nothing tangible to claim credit for and it appears to be getting worse - so hopefully his cracks start to open up even more. That response he gave to Hannity over night about his priorities if he wins another term a case in point.

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Nodack
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by Nodack » Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:57 am

I am with Indy. I am hoping America has had enough of this Clown and his enablers in Congress. I don’t have much faith in Democrats after they get control to get it done either. Our system is broken IMO. Elections won’t fix it.

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ShelC
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Re: Democratic primary watch

Post by ShelC » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:09 am

Nah the Dems will just restore "normalcy" and Biden will work in good faith with the Rs.

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