Polls

Political discussion here. Any reasonable opinion is welcome, but due to the sensitive nature of the topic area, please be nice and respectful to others. No flaming or trolling, please. And please keep political commentary out of the other board areas and confine it to this area. Thanks!
User avatar
Mori Chu
Posts: 10218
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:05 am

Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:39 am

Thought I'd make a thread where we could post various polls as they come out and discuss them. These can be Dem primary polls, general election polls, state-specific or national, whatever.

User avatar
Mori Chu
Posts: 10218
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:05 am

Re: Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:40 am

Here is some new polling data from Minnesota. I think Trump is in big trouble in the rust belt region overall. He had somewhat of a foothold in Minnesota, but now it's slipping, and the other states in the area really dislike him. I don't think he can win re-election with numbers in this range.


User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9066
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:09 am

He has been underwater in Minnesota since right after he took office. By April of 2017 he was underwater there by 9 points.

User avatar
Mori Chu
Posts: 10218
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:05 am

Re: Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:19 am

Here are some polls from the Iowa caucus. Elizabeth Warren is now ahead in Iowa polling averages for the first time. Warren also leads in New Hampshire. Biden has a huge lead in South Carolina; he has been much more popular with black voters than Warren or Sanders. Biden is also ahead in Nevada.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide ... owa_caucus

User avatar
virtual9mm
Posts: 649
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:24 pm

Re: Polls

Post by virtual9mm » Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:38 am

I've been expecting a Biden-Warren ticket but maybe it will be reversed to be Warren-Biden. I worry about how Warren would handle Trump's political attacks, however. She didn't look great with the Pocahontas incident.

A dark horse candidate for VP that would perfectly complement Warren would be McRaven. At ticket with Warren at top could definitely use a shot of straight shooting institutionalist special forces commander. Even if he has health issues and didn't run Univ of Texas too well.

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9066
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:33 am

There were rumors she is targeting Gillum out of Florida for VP.

User avatar
Mori Chu
Posts: 10218
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:05 am

Re: Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:30 pm

I really don't think the "Pocahontas" thing is going to stick. It's a manufactured controversy by Fox News/GOP and I don't think normal voters care about it at all. Warren is well liked by Native American advocacy groups, and the tribes in general would much rather have her as POTUS than 45. IMO if Warren does struggle, it will be for her fairly far-left policies like Medicare for All, breaking up big tech, her wealth tax, etc.

As for VP, I don't think Warren/Biden or Biden/Warren will happen. I think the primary will lead to too much bad blood between them. I have also heard some people suggest Warren/Sanders or vice versa, which I think would be a horrible idea since the pair would be seen as too far-left. I think Warren will get the nom and will pick somebody like Julian Castro or Stacey Abrams as her veep. Gillum would work well, too. She needs to shore up minority votes and wants a well liked and serious veep. Ideally it'd be somebody a bit more moderate than her, so Castro doesn't help there, but Abrams/Gillum would both help so much with black votes that it might not matter.

Here's another article about recent Iowa polling. Buttigieg has risen a lot there, to the point where some say it's a three-way race between Warren, Biden, and Buttigieg (and notably excluding Bernie Sanders):

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/2 ... oll-053145

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9066
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:49 pm

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:30 pm
I really don't think the "Pocahontas" thing is going to stick. It's a manufactured controversy by Fox News/GOP and I don't think normal voters care about it at all. Warren is well liked by Native American advocacy groups, and the tribes in general would much rather have her as POTUS than 45. IMO if Warren does struggle, it will be for her fairly far-left policies like Medicare for All, breaking up big tech, her wealth tax, etc.

As for VP, I don't think Warren/Biden or Biden/Warren will happen. I think the primary will lead to too much bad blood between them. I have also heard some people suggest Warren/Sanders or vice versa, which I think would be a horrible idea since the pair would be seen as too far-left. I think Warren will get the nom and will pick somebody like Julian Castro or Stacey Abrams as her veep. Gillum would work well, too. She needs to shore up minority votes and wants a well liked and serious veep. Ideally it'd be somebody a bit more moderate than her, so Castro doesn't help there, but Abrams/Gillum would both help so much with black votes that it might not matter.

Here's another article about recent Iowa polling. Buttigieg has risen a lot there, to the point where some say it's a three-way race between Warren, Biden, and Buttigieg (and notably excluding Bernie Sanders):

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/2 ... oll-053145
When it comes to Warren, she will have to have Florida to win, and I think getting Gillum will give her a better chance at FL than Castro would give her in flipping TX.

User avatar
Nodack
Posts: 2500
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:50 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Nodack » Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:21 pm

I can’t see Biden and Warren on the same ticket. They are almost polar extremes as far as Democrats go. Maybe that’s why you join forces I guess.

Buttigieg has made up a lot of ground and he is fast becoming my favorite.

I liked Gabbard a lot. She has bothered me a little lately with some of her moves like threatening to boycott the debate because of her perceived conspiracy within the DNC and the Liberal media Against her. Then again she isn’t the only one who has mentioned that conspiracy. I have been pretty pissed off by people claiming she is a Russian plant somehow. Then yesterday Hillary claims Gabbard is a Russian asset. Hillary completely lost all support from me with that claim. I feel sorry for Gabbard. She was born in the US, served two tours in Iraq and is still in the National Guard, not to mention being a Congresswoman for many years. She doesn’t deserve to be treated as a traitor by her own people just because some Russians maybe support her because she is against regime change wars we have waged. So sad.

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9066
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:18 am

Nodack wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:21 pm
I can’t see Biden and Warren on the same ticket. They are almost polar extremes as far as Democrats go. Maybe that’s why you join forces I guess.

Buttigieg has made up a lot of ground and he is fast becoming my favorite.

I liked Gabbard a lot. She has bothered me a little lately with some of her moves like threatening to boycott the debate because of her perceived conspiracy within the DNC and the Liberal media Against her. Then again she isn’t the only one who has mentioned that conspiracy. I have been pretty pissed off by people claiming she is a Russian plant somehow. Then yesterday Hillary claims Gabbard is a Russian asset. Hillary completely lost all support from me with that claim. I feel sorry for Gabbard. She was born in the US, served two tours in Iraq and is still in the National Guard, not to mention being a Congresswoman for many years. She doesn’t deserve to be treated as a traitor by her own people just because some Russians maybe support her because she is against regime change wars we have waged. So sad.
If you go back and read what she said, she didn't call her a traitor or a russian plant. She said russian bots are setting her up to be the new Jill Stein. The data backs it up. You can see reports on how many russian bots are promoting her.

Also, read a bit into her upbringing and her religious affiliation. It is pretty crazy and scary (especially for non-straight people or for muslims).

User avatar
Nodack
Posts: 2500
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:50 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Nodack » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:13 am

Hillary said she was a Russian asset. Those were her exact words. You don’t say that about someone in your own party unless you mean to do them harm. That’s my opinion. Russian bots maybe pimping her. Her stance on regime change wars has made her popular with Putin I guess. She has no ties to Putin or Russian bots. It has been very clear to me that there are those in the DNC who are trying to sabotage Gabbard and it makes me angry.

She was raised a certain way. She was against being gay as was Obama and Clinton. Things change and so do peoples stances. Her stance changed as the prevailing winds did like everyone else who wanted to get elected. Her standing in the LGBT community is up there now. She supports LGBT and has voted that way. If you want to attack her on gay rights then you better go after all the other people who changed their stance over the years.

Gabbard's first name comes from Sanskrit. Tulsi is the name for Holy Basil, a plant sacred in Hinduism.[175] Her siblings also have Hindu Sanskrit-origin names.[17] During her childhood Gabbard excelled in martial arts.[22] In 2002, she was a martial arts instructor.[176] She is vegan[177] and, as a Hindu, follows Gaudiya Vaishnavism,[21] a religious movement founded by Chaitanya Mahaprabhu in the 16th century. Gabbard describes herself as a karma yogi.[178] She values the Bhagavad Gita as a spiritual guide,[179] and used it when she took the oath of office in 2013.[180][181] Gabbard has said that she is pleased that her election gives hope to young American Hindus who "can be open about their faith, and even run for office, without fear of being discriminated against or attacked because of their religion".[182]

Her religion doesn’t bother me any more than any other religion since I don’t believe in religion.

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9066
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:06 pm

Nodack wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:13 am
Hillary said she was a Russian asset. Those were her exact words. You don’t say that about someone in your own party unless you mean to do them harm. That’s my opinion. Russian bots maybe pimping her. Her stance on regime change wars has made her popular with Putin I guess. She has no ties to Putin or Russian bots. It has been very clear to me that there are those in the DNC who are trying to sabotage Gabbard and it makes me angry.

She was raised a certain way. She was against being gay as was Obama and Clinton. Things change and so do peoples stances. Her stance changed as the prevailing winds did like everyone else who wanted to get elected. Her standing in the LGBT community is up there now. She supports LGBT and has voted that way. If you want to attack her on gay rights then you better go after all the other people who changed their stance over the years.

Gabbard's first name comes from Sanskrit. Tulsi is the name for Holy Basil, a plant sacred in Hinduism.[175] Her siblings also have Hindu Sanskrit-origin names.[17] During her childhood Gabbard excelled in martial arts.[22] In 2002, she was a martial arts instructor.[176] She is vegan[177] and, as a Hindu, follows Gaudiya Vaishnavism,[21] a religious movement founded by Chaitanya Mahaprabhu in the 16th century. Gabbard describes herself as a karma yogi.[178] She values the Bhagavad Gita as a spiritual guide,[179] and used it when she took the oath of office in 2013.[180][181] Gabbard has said that she is pleased that her election gives hope to young American Hindus who "can be open about their faith, and even run for office, without fear of being discriminated against or attacked because of their religion".[182]

Her religion doesn’t bother me any more than any other religion since I don’t believe in religion.
I hear you on religion because I am the same way. But some religions teach you to hate (especially if they have been co-opted by nut jobs). Read this thread if you want to know more about it.


User avatar
Mori Chu
Posts: 10218
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:05 am

Re: Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:30 pm

The term "Russian asset" is a bit ambiguous. It doesn't mean that the person is actively and intentionally working with Russia to do evil. It means they are useful to Russia. Russia has been heavily promoting Tulsi through bot campaigns on Twitter and other funding shenanigans. They want her to be a disruption to the Democratic party and to sow discord. They would also love it if she ran third-party, though I don't think she will do so.

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9066
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:55 am

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:30 pm
The term "Russian asset" is a bit ambiguous. It doesn't mean that the person is actively and intentionally working with Russia to do evil. It means they are useful to Russia. Russia has been heavily promoting Tulsi through bot campaigns on Twitter and other funding shenanigans. They want her to be a disruption to the Democratic party and to sow discord. They would also love it if she ran third-party, though I don't think she will do so.
She was endorsed by David Duke and Steve Bannon.

User avatar
Mori Chu
Posts: 10218
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:05 am

Re: Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:15 am

There is some indication that Biden is starting to rebound in polls after a Warren surge. I still think he and Warren are near-equal and that it differs a lot state-by-state, but this is interesting.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/2 ... oll-055601
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/politics ... index.html

I get the vibe that a lot of moderate Dems are wishing for an alternative candidate to Biden and Warren, a moderate Dem who isn't almost 80 years old and doesn't gaffe and make silly mistakes in every debate. Buttigieg could be that candidate, but he's awfully young. Not sure why Harris isn't that candidate, but she seems to have fallen way behind in her campaign.

Online
User avatar
jonh
Posts: 815
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 1:34 pm

Re: Polls

Post by jonh » Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:43 am

Right now, as a conservative-leaning independent who is also in the Never-Trump camp, I am hoping Buttigieg takes the nomination. I don't want a 70 year old as the new president, and I would prefer a centralist candidate. Interesting times!
“I’m done with not making the playoffs. I’m serious. This is probably the last year I’m ever not making the playoffs.” Devin Booker-- April, 2017

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9066
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:20 am

jonh wrote:
Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:43 am
Right now, as a conservative-leaning independent who is also in the Never-Trump camp, I am hoping Buttigieg takes the nomination. I don't want a 70 year old as the new president, and I would prefer a centralist candidate. Interesting times!
Of the top 4, how would you stack rank them?

I think I would go:
Warren
Pete
Sanders
Biden

(Although I like others outside of the top 4 a lot more than I like most of the top 4).

Online
User avatar
jonh
Posts: 815
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 1:34 pm

Re: Polls

Post by jonh » Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:54 am

Agreed--and I think I almost always dislike the front runners, so most of these choices arn't the most appealing for me.

I would go:
Pete
Warren
Biden
Sanders

I actually do like Sanders (I at least admire his principles, more than I agree with them), but I am genuinely worried about dementia for both Sanders and Biden (to a lesser extent).
“I’m done with not making the playoffs. I’m serious. This is probably the last year I’m ever not making the playoffs.” Devin Booker-- April, 2017

User avatar
Nodack
Posts: 2500
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:50 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Nodack » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:16 am

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:30 pm
The term "Russian asset" is a bit ambiguous. It doesn't mean that the person is actively and intentionally working with Russia to do evil. It means they are useful to Russia. Russia has been heavily promoting Tulsi through bot campaigns on Twitter and other funding shenanigans. They want her to be a disruption to the Democratic party and to sow discord. They would also love it if she ran third-party, though I don't think she will do so.
The term asset was used by Clinton as a hit job on Tusli. You won’t be able to convince me otherwise. Russia definitely affecting our elections. All Russia has to do is praise any candidate and they will be instantly considered an “asset” of Russia and therefore an enemy of the American people. Sad. What if Russia starts praising Warren? Is she a Russian asset then and should be attacked as the enemy? Russia wins.

User avatar
Indy
Posts: 9066
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:56 am

jonh wrote:
Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:54 am
Agreed--and I think I almost always dislike the front runners, so most of these choices arn't the most appealing for me.

I would go:
Pete
Warren
Biden
Sanders

I actually do like Sanders (I at least admire his principles, more than I agree with them), but I am genuinely worried about dementia for both Sanders and Biden (to a lesser extent).
It amazes me how much younger Warren seems compared to Biden and Sanders, despite them being withing 8 years of each other.

Post Reply