Coronavirus

[Mori Chu]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

You're right that Sweden doesn't have a nation-wide quarantine. But their citizens are largely voluntarily self-isolating. Sweden is also in the top 20 countries in the world for coronavirus cases despite being far from a top-20 country in population. Their reported numbers are also likely to be artificially low because they do not perform much testing; they test only people showing strong symptoms of the disease.

[JeremyG]

Can we all at least agree that it's ridiculous for the NBA to not be playing, when the CDC says that the virus has a case fatality rate of 0.03% for people under 50? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html And even most of those are likely people with underlying conditions, so if you only include healthy, athletic individuals that number would drop even lower.

[Superbone]

Can we all at least agree that it's ridiculous for the NBA to not be playing, when the CDC says that the virus has a case fatality rate of 0.03% for people under 50? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html And even most of those are likely people with underlying conditions, so if you only include healthy, athletic individuals that number would drop even lower.

I can get behind that. They're still going to have to keep them in a bubble though and avoid outside contact.

[3rdside]

Niall Ferguson is good - one of the world's top historian's, right leaning, smart af.

- US / UK handled the virus stupidly, reacted too late then cratered their economies by dumbly locking everyone down regardless of their vulnerability, and kept everyone there .. with no apparent benefit as the virus still spread and the economic shock is huge.

So 0 for 2, and now with an unfortunate incentive for citizens not to go back to work, as they're being paid to stay at home.


- Says South Korea / Taiwan with their contract tracing apps is the model we should all be using, so social distancing, protect the vulnerable, and if you come into contact with an infected person then you self isolate.

But US / UK people wary of apps as it as an invasion of privacy which is stupid considering we give away our location in multiple apps on our smartphone already, and app privacy can be managed easily. This is partly the big tech co's fault for their previous invasions, and partly the government's fault for not doing to much to regulate them.

Once US / UK missed the early lock down boat, social distancing on its own (even without the tracer apps), like Sweden has done, would probably - on the basis of some pretty solid data - have been more effective. He believes countries will end up mirroring Sweden and their herd immunity approach (not without its risks of course).


Warning - he compliments Tucker Carlson, who I find insufferable.


- Interesting comments on USA (much more positive than Dalio regarding its Empire, but if election is contested (20% chance he says) then that's going to be a huge problem (will make Bush vs Gore look like child's play), and UK-Brexit (worst managed virus in the Europe, raising questions about govt's competency).

Trump's tech approach, his closed borders policy aligning with pandemic management, aggressive towards China and Biden being weak are keeping him in it.

[ShelC]

US / UK handled the virus stupidly, reacted too late then cratered their economies by dumbly locking everyone down regardless of their vulnerability, and kept everyone there .. with no apparent benefit as the virus still spread and the economic shock is huge.

Reacted late but didn't locking down also keep us from overwhelming the hospitals and healthcare system?

So 0 for 2, and now with an unfortunate incentive for citizens not to go back to work, as they're being paid to stay at home.

Unemployment runs out eventually tho and you also don't have benefits, so there's still incentive to go back to work. But it's also an indictment on our system that people get paid more on unemployment than for actually working.

But US / UK people wary of apps as it as an invasion of privacy which is stupid considering we give away our location in multiple apps on our smartphone already, and app privacy can be managed easily. This is partly the big tech co's fault for their previous invasions, and partly the government's fault for not doing to much to regulate them

Should've just attached it to Instagram, Facebook or TikTok.

Says South Korea / Taiwan with their contract tracing apps is the model we should all be using, so social distancing, protect the vulnerable, and if you come into contact with an infected person then you self isolate.

Different cultures...Americans are entitled shitheads who won't be told what to do. Expect people to self isolate on their own? Look at the hair salon workers in Missouri who went to work while having symptoms and potentially infected over 150 people. Americans also go to work while sick all the time because it's the "work to death" culture. If you call out sick, people look at you like "come on, really?".

- Interesting comments on USA (much more positive than Dalio regarding its Empire, but if election is contested (20% chance he says) then that's going to be a huge problem (will make Bush vs Gore look like child's play), and UK-Brexit (worst managed virus in the Europe, raising questions about govt's competency).

November is going to get very ugly.

[Indy]

Sweden has one of the highest death rates for COVID-19, too.

[Indy]

Can we all at least agree that it's ridiculous for the NBA to not be playing, when the CDC says that the virus has a case fatality rate of 0.03% for people under 50? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html And even most of those are likely people with underlying conditions, so if you only include healthy, athletic individuals that number would drop even lower.

I can get behind that. They're still going to have to keep them in a bubble though and avoid outside contact.

How do you justify that for the people supporting the NBA? It isn't like they can just show up with their 15 players and a coach, and only employ young refs. There are dozens of people involved, even if you cut out all fans.

[Indy]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... ikely-bots

"We do know that it looks like it's a propaganda machine, and it definitely matches the Russian and Chinese playbooks, but it would take a tremendous amount of resources to substantiate that," said Kathleen Carley, a professor of computer science at Carnegie Mellon University who is conducting a study into bot-generated coronavirus activity on Twitter that has yet to be published.

...

"We're seeing up to two times as much bot activity as we'd predicted based on previous natural disasters, crises and elections," Carley said.

[ShelC]

Yea I had seen that over the weekend. Not surprising at all and what's more, our elected officials and intelligence community don't seem to want to/can do anything about it. We should be united on these things, instead we're divided and encouraged to yell and fight with "the other side".

[Mori Chu]

Can we all at least agree that it's ridiculous for the NBA to not be playing, when the CDC says that the virus has a case fatality rate of 0.03% for people under 50? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html And even most of those are likely people with underlying conditions, so if you only include healthy, athletic individuals that number would drop even lower.

No, we cannot agree on that. I don't think they should be playing. There is risk to the players, coaching staff, and many others associated with the league. They'll all be in confined spaces breathing heavily and sharing air. I support them trying to figure out a way to play when it's safe, but I don't agree with your comment that it is "ridiculous" for them not to be playing. Basketball is not the most important thing right now. If even one person working in the NBA dies needlessly due to them going back to play early, it was a disaster. And while the players may be at lower risk due to being healthy, there are many older people around the league who would be in the same confined spaces, such as coaches, GMs, staff, even janitors, media people, etc.

[JeremyG]

Can we all at least agree that it's ridiculous for the NBA to not be playing, when the CDC says that the virus has a case fatality rate of 0.03% for people under 50? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html And even most of those are likely people with underlying conditions, so if you only include healthy, athletic individuals that number would drop even lower.

No, we cannot agree on that. I don't think they should be playing. There is risk to the players, coaching staff, and many others associated with the league. They'll all be in confined spaces breathing heavily and sharing air. I support them trying to figure out a way to play when it's safe, but I don't agree with your comment that it is "ridiculous" for them not to be playing. Basketball is not the most important thing right now. If even one person working in the NBA dies needlessly due to them going back to play early, it was a disaster. And while the players may be at lower risk due to being healthy, there are many older people around the league who would be in the same confined spaces, such as coaches, GMs, staff, even janitors, media people, etc.

If they wait until it is "safe" then they will never play again, because it will never be "safe." Life itself is not safe. Living always comes with a risk of dying. Tens of thousands of Americans die every year in car accidents, but we don't say that people shouldn't drive to the arena because there is a risk of death.

According to your logic, the NBA has been risking people's lives every year during flu season. The same CDC link I shared says that their best estimate for the COVID-19 fatality rate among symptomatic cases is 0.4% among all age groups (0.26% if you include asymptomatic cases). That is about 3 times the death rate for the flu. Let's also go with the CDC's estimate of infection rate of 2.5 (about 1.67 times that of the flu). In other words, people have about a 5 times greater chance of death from going to a basketball game during Covid than they do during flu season.

So if we have let's say 50 people (players and staff) at each game instead of the average 17,750 people (355 times more people divided by 5 [5 times less likely to die]), that means we are 71 times more likely to have someone die from a normal NBA basketball game during flu season than we are to have someone die from a 50-person NBA game during COVID.

In order to have a greater risk of death than playing NBA games during flu season, the NBA would have to have over 3,550 people in the building.

EDIT: And that's not even including any temperature checks, testing, distancing, or any preventive measures.

[3rdside]

US / UK handled the virus stupidly, reacted too late then cratered their economies by dumbly locking everyone down regardless of their vulnerability, and kept everyone there .. with no apparent benefit as the virus still spread and the economic shock is huge.

Reacted late but didn't locking down also keep us from overwhelming the hospitals and healthcare system?

So 0 for 2, and now with an unfortunate incentive for citizens not to go back to work, as they're being paid to stay at home.

Unemployment runs out eventually tho and you also don't have benefits, so there's still incentive to go back to work. But it's also an indictment on our system that people get paid more on unemployment than for actually working.

But US / UK people wary of apps as it as an invasion of privacy which is stupid considering we give away our location in multiple apps on our smartphone already, and app privacy can be managed easily. This is partly the big tech co's fault for their previous invasions, and partly the government's fault for not doing to much to regulate them

Should've just attached it to Instagram, Facebook or TikTok.

Says South Korea / Taiwan with their contract tracing apps is the model we should all be using, so social distancing, protect the vulnerable, and if you come into contact with an infected person then you self isolate.

Different cultures...Americans are entitled shitheads who won't be told what to do. Expect people to self isolate on their own? Look at the hair salon workers in Missouri who went to work while having symptoms and potentially infected over 150 people. Americans also go to work while sick all the time because it's the "work to death" culture. If you call out sick, people look at you like "come on, really?".

- Interesting comments on USA (much more positive than Dalio regarding its Empire, but if election is contested (20% chance he says) then that's going to be a huge problem (will make Bush vs Gore look like child's play), and UK-Brexit (worst managed virus in the Europe, raising questions about govt's competency).

November is going to get very ugly.

- I agree about the overwhelm on hospitals, lock down had to be done. And if I was in London I would have flat out refused to catch public transport to work a few weeks ago. Would be okay doing it today but I would not catch the tube.

- Digging into Ferguson, he veers way beyond centre right and into hard right territory, so his comments need to be considered from that angle. He argued that "a quintumvirate of Trump, Putin, Xi, May and Le Pen was the world's best hope for peace and prosperity".

So - Dumb Fuck, Autocratic Gangster, Autocratic Dictator, May (the only credible person of the bunch) and Racist. Forgive me for thinking there might be better ways buddy. He salivates over Trump and anyone that does that has to be questioned imo.

- I question how much USA people are getting paid, is it just the $1200, or more than that? $1200 doesn't seem like much.

- Agreed on the USA culture - freedom is great but extreme freedom (correlated with extreme capitalism, extreme religion, extreme opinions etc) seems to be underpinning all of USA's problems right now.

Tik Tok etc an interesting approach (omg that app, I had to delete it after two days as it's hardcore mindless addiction .. good luck future generations!)

- Biden needs to win in a landslide.

[3rdside]

Can we all at least agree that it's ridiculous for the NBA to not be playing, when the CDC says that the virus has a case fatality rate of 0.03% for people under 50? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html And even most of those are likely people with underlying conditions, so if you only include healthy, athletic individuals that number would drop even lower.

No, we cannot agree on that. I don't think they should be playing. There is risk to the players, coaching staff, and many others associated with the league. They'll all be in confined spaces breathing heavily and sharing air. I support them trying to figure out a way to play when it's safe, but I don't agree with your comment that it is "ridiculous" for them not to be playing. Basketball is not the most important thing right now. If even one person working in the NBA dies needlessly due to them going back to play early, it was a disaster. And while the players may be at lower risk due to being healthy, there are many older people around the league who would be in the same confined spaces, such as coaches, GMs, staff, even janitors, media people, etc.

If they wait until it is "safe" then they will never play again, because it will never be "safe." Life itself is not safe. Living always comes with a risk of dying. Tens of thousands of Americans die every year in car accidents, but we don't say that people shouldn't drive to the arena because there is a risk of death.

According to your logic, the NBA has been risking people's lives every year during flu season. The same CDC link I shared says that their best estimate for the COVID-19 fatality rate among symptomatic cases is 0.4% among all age groups (0.26% if you include asymptomatic cases). That is about 3 times the death rate for the flu. Let's also go with the CDC's estimate of infection rate of 2.5 (about 1.67 times that of the flu). In other words, people have about a 5 times greater chance of death from going to a basketball game during Covid than they do during flu season.

So if we have let's say 50 people (players and staff) at each game instead of the average 17,750 people (355 times more people divided by 5 [5 times less likely to die]), that means we are 71 times more likely to have someone die from a normal NBA basketball game during flu season than we are to have someone die from a 50-person NBA game during COVID.

In order to have a greater risk of death than playing NBA games during flu season, the NBA would have to have over 3,550 people in the building.

EDIT: And that's not even including any temperature checks, testing, distancing, or any preventive measures.

I think it's safe for players to go back imo - it's happened in Germany already with their football league and with empty stadiums - but be prepared to shut it down if necessary. If I was a player and my future livelihood depended on my health, maybe I wouldn't be so sure.

[Nodack]

Are the players salaries guaranteed under the Covid shutdown or do they have to play to get paid? If they are still getting paid they are probably OK with sitting around playing video games all day and not tearing their bodies down. If they have to play to get paid they might have a different attitude about it.

[3rdside]

Clubs each came up with their own approaches to managing player salaries. European clubs look to have had more success getting their players to agree to a pay cut than did England, where I don't think anyone did even though they tried to have a league wide discussion about it.

[Indy]

Are the players salaries guaranteed under the Covid shutdown or do they have to play to get paid? If they are still getting paid they are probably OK with sitting around playing video games all day and not tearing their bodies down. If they have to play to get paid they might have a different attitude about it.

Didn't they say they stopped player monthly checks in April?

[3rdside]

Can we all at least agree that it's ridiculous for the NBA to not be playing, when the CDC says that the virus has a case fatality rate of 0.03% for people under 50? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html And even most of those are likely people with underlying conditions, so if you only include healthy, athletic individuals that number would drop even lower.

No, we cannot agree on that. I don't think they should be playing. There is risk to the players, coaching staff, and many others associated with the league. They'll all be in confined spaces breathing heavily and sharing air. I support them trying to figure out a way to play when it's safe, but I don't agree with your comment that it is "ridiculous" for them not to be playing. Basketball is not the most important thing right now. If even one person working in the NBA dies needlessly due to them going back to play early, it was a disaster. And while the players may be at lower risk due to being healthy, there are many older people around the league who would be in the same confined spaces, such as coaches, GMs, staff, even janitors, media people, etc.

If they wait until it is "safe" then they will never play again, because it will never be "safe." Life itself is not safe. Living always comes with a risk of dying. Tens of thousands of Americans die every year in car accidents, but we don't say that people shouldn't drive to the arena because there is a risk of death.

According to your logic, the NBA has been risking people's lives every year during flu season. The same CDC link I shared says that their best estimate for the COVID-19 fatality rate among symptomatic cases is 0.4% among all age groups (0.26% if you include asymptomatic cases). That is about 3 times the death rate for the flu. Let's also go with the CDC's estimate of infection rate of 2.5 (about 1.67 times that of the flu). In other words, people have about a 5 times greater chance of death from going to a basketball game during Covid than they do during flu season.

So if we have let's say 50 people (players and staff) at each game instead of the average 17,750 people (355 times more people divided by 5 [5 times less likely to die]), that means we are 71 times more likely to have someone die from a normal NBA basketball game during flu season than we are to have someone die from a 50-person NBA game during COVID.

In order to have a greater risk of death than playing NBA games during flu season, the NBA would have to have over 3,550 people in the building.

EDIT: And that's not even including any temperature checks, testing, distancing, or any preventive measures.

I think it's safe for players to go back imo - it's happened in Germany already with their football league and with empty stadiums - but be prepared to shut it down if necessary. If I was a player and my future livelihood depended on my health, maybe I wouldn't be so sure.

Going back to the question of is it ok for players to return to the NBA - July 31st sounds reasonable to me. If you said they should return today, I don't think that's ok as USA hasn't got a handle on the virus yet, like Germany did before it restarted.

[Superbone]

I'll be ready, that's for sure.

[3rdside]

I'll be ready, that's for sure.

Likewise, I could do with taking my mind off politics for a bit. In the mean time while the world burns...

[JeremyG]

So now that all the governors are saying that mass gatherings of thousands of people protesting with zero distancing are completely fine...does that mean sports stadiums can be filled again?