Polls

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Mori Chu
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Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:22 am

I'll post various polls here as I find them.

Right now RealClearPolitics has Biden at +9.4 in their aggregate of various national polls:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6247.html

There have been some huge numbers such as +14 in NYT/Siena's latest poll and +12 in a recent CNN poll. Most polls have him in the +8 to +10 range.

Of course what really matters is the battleground states. FiveThirtyEight passes on these numbers:

Michigan: Biden +7
Wisconsin: Biden +6
Arizona: Biden +3 (!)
Florida: Biden +2 (!)
North Carolina: Biden +0.5
Pennsylvania: toss-up
Georgia: Trump +1
Texas: Trump +1.5

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... for-biden/

Of course the polls could be inaccurate, but those are pretty strong leads in MI and WI. I suspect Trump will win FL and NC in the end. If Biden carries MI, WI, AZ, he would have a strong chance to win.

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Nodack
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Re: Polls

Post by Nodack » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:36 am

I wish Biden was behind in the polls. Being ahead, especially big makes people complacent. The bigger the lead the more likely people won’t bother to vote.

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Mori Chu
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Re: Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:07 am

I think this election is going to have a huge turnout. Everybody is really heated about it, either to vote to defend Trump or to vote him out. I don't think there will be an enthusiasm problem even if Biden is up in the polls going in.

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Superbone
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Re: Polls

Post by Superbone » Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:48 pm

I just wish it was closer to the election. A lot can still change. I won't celebrate until the nightmare is over.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. ACCOMPLISHED! 34 wins and counting in a shortened season...

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Flagrant Fowl
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Re: Polls

Post by Flagrant Fowl » Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:41 pm

Who the hell needs a poll?

Just go out and take a count of all the people not wearing masks. That'll give you a strong indication of where their vote is going.
UOducks4life in a previous life. Valar Morghulis.

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Superbone
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Re: Polls

Post by Superbone » Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:55 pm

Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:41 pm
Who the hell needs a poll?

Just go out and take a count of all the people not wearing masks. That'll give you a strong indication of where their vote is going.
That's very true. I went to the beach for the first time since the pandemic hit just to take a walk along the ocean. As we arrived, there was a big electric sign saying face-coverings required. Once I got down there, I'd say about 20% were wearing masks. I was shocked.

I also got some takeout fish and chips. While waiting for my order and people watching, it was so obvious how many were making a 'political' statement and proudly NOT wearing a mask. A couple biker dudes walked up to the counter and the young lady said masks were required to order. The one guy said, I just happen to have one on me as he put it on to order and his buddy walked outside to wait. At least it was closer to 60% wearing masks on the boardwalk.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. ACCOMPLISHED! 34 wins and counting in a shortened season...

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Mori Chu
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Re: Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:51 pm

We're all going to die, aren't we?

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Indy
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Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:52 am

Mori Chu wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:51 pm
We're all going to die, aren't we?
eventually, yes.

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ShelC
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Re: Polls

Post by ShelC » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:53 am

Here we go...


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Indy
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Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:56 am

Let's see how loud people in power get about this. The constitution is pretty clear. There is no mechanism for the executive branch to delay an election. And even if it were delayed, the term of the president is locked in the constitution. Once we hit Jan 21, the term is over. If we don't have an elected person by then, I guess it falls to speaker of the house...

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ShelC
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Re: Polls

Post by ShelC » Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:24 am

Yea but when have the laws or rules applied to this guy. And I don't doubt the Rs will find a way to back it or rationalize it somehow.

But really, they all could make it work. They want kids in schools, but it's not safe to vote? Open more voting locations instead of cutting the number down. Make Election Day a national holiday. Make it a 3 day event Friday thru Sunday night or something to spread it out so people are lined up like crazy. They make it difficult on purpose.

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Indy
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Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:48 am

Yeah, I get that about nobody holding him accountable. That is what I meant about how loud people will be about this. And I don't mean common folks, or news folks, or The Lincoln Project. I mean Democratic and Republican elected leaders in this country. They should be screaming about this, and the longer they don't, the more credence it gives him and the more it enables him.

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Mori Chu
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Re: Polls

Post by Mori Chu » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:27 am

He wants to be a dictator, plain and simple. I don't see how anybody can deny it. Allowing him to delay or disrupt our election will be the end of our American democracy as we know it.

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Indy
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Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:03 am

Citizens United was the end of our democracy as we know it.

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Indy
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Re: Polls

Post by Indy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:32 am

McConnell and Lindsey Graham have already come out saying that there will be an election in November.

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Nodack
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Re: Polls

Post by Nodack » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:56 pm

This comes as a surprise to no one.

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ShelC
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Re: Polls

Post by ShelC » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:59 pm

Those guys say lots of things. Watch what happens as the election gets closer


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Nodack
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Re: Polls

Post by Nodack » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:00 pm

Smart move by McConnell.

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