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Polls

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:22 am
by Mori Chu
I'll post various polls here as I find them.

Right now RealClearPolitics has Biden at +9.4 in their aggregate of various national polls:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6247.html

There have been some huge numbers such as +14 in NYT/Siena's latest poll and +12 in a recent CNN poll. Most polls have him in the +8 to +10 range.

Of course what really matters is the battleground states. FiveThirtyEight passes on these numbers:

Michigan: Biden +7
Wisconsin: Biden +6
Arizona: Biden +3 (!)
Florida: Biden +2 (!)
North Carolina: Biden +0.5
Pennsylvania: toss-up
Georgia: Trump +1
Texas: Trump +1.5

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... for-biden/

Of course the polls could be inaccurate, but those are pretty strong leads in MI and WI. I suspect Trump will win FL and NC in the end. If Biden carries MI, WI, AZ, he would have a strong chance to win.

Re: Polls

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:36 am
by Nodack
I wish Biden was behind in the polls. Being ahead, especially big makes people complacent. The bigger the lead the more likely people won’t bother to vote.

Re: Polls

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:07 am
by Mori Chu
I think this election is going to have a huge turnout. Everybody is really heated about it, either to vote to defend Trump or to vote him out. I don't think there will be an enthusiasm problem even if Biden is up in the polls going in.

Re: Polls

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:48 pm
by Superbone
I just wish it was closer to the election. A lot can still change. I won't celebrate until the nightmare is over.

Re: Polls

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:41 pm
by Flagrant Fowl
Who the hell needs a poll?

Just go out and take a count of all the people not wearing masks. That'll give you a strong indication of where their vote is going.

Re: Polls

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:55 pm
by Superbone
Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:41 pm
Who the hell needs a poll?

Just go out and take a count of all the people not wearing masks. That'll give you a strong indication of where their vote is going.
That's very true. I went to the beach for the first time since the pandemic hit just to take a walk along the ocean. As we arrived, there was a big electric sign saying face-coverings required. Once I got down there, I'd say about 20% were wearing masks. I was shocked.

I also got some takeout fish and chips. While waiting for my order and people watching, it was so obvious how many were making a 'political' statement and proudly NOT wearing a mask. A couple biker dudes walked up to the counter and the young lady said masks were required to order. The one guy said, I just happen to have one on me as he put it on to order and his buddy walked outside to wait. At least it was closer to 60% wearing masks on the boardwalk.

Re: Polls

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:51 pm
by Mori Chu
We're all going to die, aren't we?

Re: Polls

Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:52 am
by Indy
Mori Chu wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:51 pm
We're all going to die, aren't we?
eventually, yes.