The RNC

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Mori Chu
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Re: The RNC

Post by Mori Chu » Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:11 am


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Mori Chu
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Re: The RNC

Post by Mori Chu » Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:11 am


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Indy
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Re: The RNC

Post by Indy » Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:16 am

Despite how awful those first few tweets are, the quote by an admin official is unforgivable. I am sure there have been plenty of election people that think civil unrest might help their candidate, but you don't say out loud and on the record that more violence in America is good for your candidate.

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Superbone
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Re: The RNC

Post by Superbone » Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:11 am

Mori Chu wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:09 am
The best I can tell today is that the GOP is settling on defending the 17-year-old murderer who blew protestors away in Kenosha the other day. They're saying it was self-defense and that somebody had to maintain law and order when the city/police wouldn't. Oof.
Cool. License to kill. We can all go out in the streets and start shooting each other.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. ACCOMPLISHED! 34 wins in a shortened season!

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Mori Chu
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Re: The RNC

Post by Mori Chu » Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:31 am

Superbone wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:11 am
Mori Chu wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:09 am
The best I can tell today is that the GOP is settling on defending the 17-year-old murderer who blew protestors away in Kenosha the other day. They're saying it was self-defense and that somebody had to maintain law and order when the city/police wouldn't. Oof.
Cool. License to kill. We* can all go out in the streets and start shooting each other**.
* "we" = whites / police
** "each other" = blacks / protestors

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Indy
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Re: The RNC

Post by Indy » Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:57 am

exactly.

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Superbone
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Re: The RNC

Post by Superbone » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:28 am

Nailed it.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. ACCOMPLISHED! 34 wins in a shortened season!

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3rdside
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Re: The RNC

Post by 3rdside » Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:27 am

Nodack wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:34 pm
I will tell you that half the country is uninformed, being lied to and manipulated and making decisions without all the information.
I think the other half would say the exact same thing to you.
I don't know how anyone can claim any equivalency between the two parties in terms of lying, so if you have to trust one more than the other based on their relative lack of lying, it isn't the R's.


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Superbone
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Re: The RNC

Post by Superbone » Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:45 am

How do you know Trump is lying? His lips are moving.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. ACCOMPLISHED! 34 wins in a shortened season!

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3rdside
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Re: The RNC

Post by 3rdside » Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:49 am

This is the general view from my UK-heavy twitter feed (so take it for what it's worth, if I even need to say it - although UK betting sites have it nearly neck and neck):


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ShelC
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Re: The RNC

Post by ShelC » Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:45 am

Trump and the Rs can't win a fair election. They know it, that's why they're doing all they can to rig it. They won't even need Russia's help this time.

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Re: The RNC

Post by 3rdside » Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:30 am

ShelC wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:45 am
Trump and the Rs can't win a fair election. They know it, that's why they're doing all they can to rig it. They won't even need Russia's help this time.
I’m saying you’re too dubious .. Biden is senile, Harris is smug and that’s enough right there for Trump to get re-elected.

These odds assume no cheating, and from most accounts your elections will be more or less be fair:

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3rdside
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Re: The RNC

Post by 3rdside » Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:44 am


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Indy
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Re: The RNC

Post by Indy » Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:51 am

3rdside wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:30 am
ShelC wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:45 am
Trump and the Rs can't win a fair election. They know it, that's why they're doing all they can to rig it. They won't even need Russia's help this time.
I’m saying you’re too dubious .. Biden is senile, Harris is smug and that’s enough right there for Trump to get re-elected.

These odds assume no cheating, and from most accounts your elections will be more or less be fair:
I am not sure there has ever been a more smug candidate than Trump. Seems strange to describe Harris that way.

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3rdside
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Re: The RNC

Post by 3rdside » Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:54 am

Perspective is relative 👍

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3rdside
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Re: The RNC

Post by 3rdside » Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:57 am

(I think KH is great, it’s not my perspective I’m worried about)

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Mori Chu
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Re: The RNC

Post by Mori Chu » Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:16 am

I don't know how much it matters what prediction / betting sites think. If you care about such things, Predict-it has Biden/Trump at a 57/47 bet.

https://www.predictit.org/

I am much more interested in polls than betting sites. Biden has consistently been up by 7-9 points in the polls. I realize that Hillary Clinton had a fairly similar lead in 2016, but there are much fewer undecided voters than Clinton had in 2016. I think Clinton/Trump was something like 45 to 38% lead with 17-18% undecided; that is a ton of people who hadn't yet made up their minds. Biden/Trump today is something like 51/42 with 6-7% undecided. The lead margin is very similar but the difference is immense. Also, many polls show a strong majority of voters are strongly opposed to voting for Donald Trump, indicating that they would not "flip" to him for any reason.

I think Biden is in excellent position to win, unless Trump literally cheats in the election by doing things like throwing out all mail-in ballots or stationing ICE gestapo at polling places to scare away minorities.

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Re: The RNC

Post by Indy » Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:22 am

Polls are asking people to tell you what they think (and so many of the polls are robo-calls so they can only call land lines). Betting sites are putting their money on the line to get it right. I think they are usually more accurate (though I should probably look at the lines for the last few elections to confirm that).

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3rdside
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Re: The RNC

Post by 3rdside » Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:58 pm

3rdside wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:30 am
ShelC wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:45 am
Trump and the Rs can't win a fair election. They know it, that's why they're doing all they can to rig it. They won't even need Russia's help this time.
I’m saying you’re too dubious .. Biden is senile, Harris is smug and that’s enough right there for Trump to get re-elected.

These odds assume no cheating, and from most accounts your elections will be more or less be fair:
It must have been the beer talking but I have no faith this will be a clean election (I read a couple of WP articles suggesting as much) so I agree with you on this entirely.

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Re: The RNC

Post by Cap » Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:29 am

Mori Chu wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:16 am
I don't know how much it matters what prediction / betting sites think. If you care about such things, Predict-it has Biden/Trump at a 57/47 bet.

https://www.predictit.org/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... president/ is a better overview of the betting markets. 51-49.

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