The RNC

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Mori Chu
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Re: The RNC

Post by Mori Chu » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:34 pm

I mean, fine, but I don't see how it matters what people on betting sites think. If you look at NBA betting sites, they routinely overrate certain outcomes, such as the Lakers winning the title. All that really matters is how people will vote, and the best way to know that is to look at polls.

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Mori Chu
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Re: The RNC

Post by Mori Chu » Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:40 pm


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Cap
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Re: The RNC

Post by Cap » Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:59 am

RCP now has the betting market at 50-50.

And to anybody who thinks they’re smarter than the betting markets, why aren’t you making money off of them?

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Mori Chu
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Re: The RNC

Post by Mori Chu » Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:19 am

Cap wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:59 am
RCP now has the betting market at 50-50.

And to anybody who thinks they’re smarter than the betting markets, why aren’t you making money off of them?
I certainly wouldn't bet any money on anything to do with the US 2020 Presidential Election. Almost anything could happen, including the result being contested or declared invalid. A gambling stay-away if ever I saw one.

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Superbone
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Re: The RNC

Post by Superbone » Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:39 pm

Cap wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:59 am
RCP now has the betting market at 50-50.

And to anybody who thinks they’re smarter than the betting markets, why aren’t you making money off of them?
It's a different thing though, isn't it? It's all based on how many bets are on each side. Not necessarily who's going to win.
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Indy
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Re: The RNC

Post by Indy » Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:57 pm

Superbone wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:39 pm
Cap wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:59 am
RCP now has the betting market at 50-50.

And to anybody who thinks they’re smarter than the betting markets, why aren’t you making money off of them?
It's a different thing though, isn't it? It's all based on how many bets are on each side. Not necessarily who's going to win.
Right. you are betting against the average better. The way you make money is when something happens that most people don't think will happen. Not what is likely to happen.

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Mori Chu
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Re: The RNC

Post by Mori Chu » Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:49 pm

I still just don't see how betting sites are relevant. It is a bunch of wiseguys thinking they're smarter than the polls and electorate, and I don't see how that is any indicator of what is actually going to happen. I especially don't see its merit when you have a much more direct way of predicting what will happen, that is, asking people who they are going to vote for and tabulating the results ("polling"). Polling is imperfect but is miles ahead of watching some dumb gambling site and treating it like Nostradamus.

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Superbone
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Re: The RNC

Post by Superbone » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:11 pm

Trump asked folks to break both federal and state laws while breaking NC state law himself.

Under North Carolina law, it is illegal: “For any person with intent to commit a fraud to register or vote at more than one precinct or more than one time, or to induce another to do so, in the same primary or election, or to vote illegally at any primary or election.”

Sources:
https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req ... on:prelim)
https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislatio ... 63-275.pdf
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Cap
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Re: The RNC

Post by Cap » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:13 am

Betting markets now at 53-46.
538 now at 72-28.

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Nodack
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Re: The RNC

Post by Nodack » Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:59 pm


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Cap
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Re: The RNC

Post by Cap » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:48 am

Nodack wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:59 pm
Biden with a 75% chance to win?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/
Nate has mentioned that 538’s model doesn’t account for the impacts of the pandemic on voting or Trumpian shenanigans, so it probably understates Trump’s chances.

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Nodack
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Re: The RNC

Post by Nodack » Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:15 am

Up is down: Trump lies that Biden would 'destroy' Obamacare's protections for pre-existing conditions
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/politics ... index.html
At a campaign rally in Freeland, Michigan, Trump claimed his opponent, Joe Biden, "will destroy your protections for pre-existing conditions." Trump went on to say that he would himself preserve these protections.
Facts First: This is not only false but a complete reversal of reality. The protections for people with pre-existing conditions were created by the very Obama administration in which Biden served as vice president -- as part of Obamacare, the 2010 law Biden has vowed to preserve and strengthen if elected President. Trump, conversely, has tried repeatedly to get bills passed that would have weakened these protections. He is now trying to get the entirety of Obamacare struck down by the courts.


Unbelievable.

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Superbone
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Re: The RNC

Post by Superbone » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:02 pm

Trump thinks that he can literally say whatever he wants and his base will believe it. Dare I say it's a cult?
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. ACCOMPLISHED! 34 wins in a shortened season!

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Nodack
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Re: The RNC

Post by Nodack » Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:25 am

HELL OF A CANDIDATE ‘Transsexual Satanist anarchist’ whose slogan is ‘f*** the police’ wins GOP nomination for New Hampshire county sheriff
https://www.the-sun.com/news/1463548/tr ... e-sheriff/
“You feel betrayed. You may even be wondering how the party that you so believed in could do something like this. But, odds are, you’re blaming me,” DiMezzo wrote.

DiMezzo, the High Priestess of the Reformed Satanic Church, said she’s running for the law enforcement position to oppose the “reckless” partisan electoral system that allowed her to become the Republican nominee.

“More than 4,000 people went into the voting booth on September 8 this week, and they all filled in the circle by my name despite knowing absolutely nothing about the person they were nominating to the most powerful law enforcement position in the county.” DiMezzo wrote.

She added: “The system that let you down by allowing me–the freaking transsexual Satanist anarchist–be your sheriff candidate is the same system I’m attacking. I’m sorry, and I know it hurts to hear, but that system is a lie.”

DiMezzo added that she won the election for the same reasons Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016.

“What of Donald Trump, a Democrat who won the Republican nomination for President for exactly the same reasons I just won the Republican nomination for Cheshire County Sheriff? It’s all a lie. It’s all broken,” DiMezzo said.

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ShelC
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Re: The RNC

Post by ShelC » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:05 am

At least she's honest?

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Mori Chu
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Re: The RNC

Post by Mori Chu » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:12 am

She's a hell of a candidate, but she'll have a devil of a time winning.

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Superbone
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Re: The RNC

Post by Superbone » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:51 am

Mori Chu wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:12 am
She's a hell of a candidate, but she'll have a devil of a time winning.
I don't know. I think she's going to kill everybody in her path.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. ACCOMPLISHED! 34 wins in a shortened season!

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Nodack
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Re: The RNC

Post by Nodack » Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:18 pm

Don’t worry they will start demonizing her soon.

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Superbone
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Re: The RNC

Post by Superbone » Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:37 pm

They thought they were voting for an antiracist, not an anarchist. Easy misunderstanding.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. ACCOMPLISHED! 34 wins in a shortened season!

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Cap
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Re: The RNC

Post by Cap » Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:38 pm

Superbone wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:37 pm
They thought they were voting for an antiracist
Republicans?

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